• 1 2 34522
  • Page
  • Text Only
LOL, amusing... You should have done it at a better technical entry point, like gold 1320 & silver 23... Also, that's quite a premium.

Second, your interest is insane, this could have been much better accomplished with options and futures.

Third, I actually think a surge in the dollar is quite likely.

Forth, betting on such a huge event, in such a short time frame is very stupid.

Last, WTH does Vegas have to do with anything? Gambling in Vegas has a disgustingly negative expectancy... Like needing to top 19% interest, premiums, taxes and transactions costs just to break even.

LOL, prove you aren't a troll and post some pics of pirate pile!

Good move. It will either work out well for OP, or bad for bank.

Gold and Silver are a good idea, but never borrow to obtain it. It is insurance and Its not in a bubble, the Dollar is the bubble that is popping.

uutxs said: ZenNUTS said: Usually I can at least understand the crazy thing the OP is saying but I'm at a lost. Can someone translate it for me?
OP took cash out from all his CC (thanks to earlier AORs, had a huge CL available). Bought 140k Gold and 240k silver physical metal. Plans to gamble in Vegas with remaining cash. Speculation is, thanks to QE2, gold/silver prices will skyrocket and OP will be a millionaire in 18 months. If the bet doesnt pay off, OP will bailout on the banks.


I'd be betting on cotton.

Swivelguy said: Anyone else see the irony on "betting" it all on an asset that can really only do as well as inflation? In the 1% chance scenario that you "win" this bet, all you got was not losing money (expect apparently ~20% per year), and in the 99% case where you go bust... you go bust.

THAT'S IT MAN, I'M ALL-IN, 100% IN SHORT-TERM U.S. TREASURIES. OHHHHH I'M PSYCHO WATCH ME POST, GIVE ATTENTION.


Maybe in the very long term the price of precious metals more or less tracks inflation. But in the shorter term it can significantly outperform or underperform it. On January 21, 1980 gold reached a then high of $850 per ounce. The current price is about $1,395 an ounce, representing a 64% increase in price over 30 years. In contrast, inflation between 1980 and 2009 was approximately 156%. So over the last 30 years, gold has very strongly underperformed vis-a-vis inflation.

Like anything else its value is subject to supply and demand.

Rathipon said: Swivelguy said: Anyone else see the irony on "betting" it all on an asset that can really only do as well as inflation? In the 1% chance scenario that you "win" this bet, all you got was not losing money (expect apparently ~20% per year), and in the 99% case where you go bust... you go bust.

THAT'S IT MAN, I'M ALL-IN, 100% IN SHORT-TERM U.S. TREASURIES. OHHHHH I'M PSYCHO WATCH ME POST, GIVE ATTENTION.


Maybe in the very long term the price of precious metals more or less tracks inflation. But in the shorter term it can significantly outperform or underperform it. On January 21, 1980 gold reached a then high of $850 per ounce. The current price is about $1,395 an ounce, representing a 64% increase in price over 30 years. In contrast, inflation between 1980 and 2009 was approximately 156%. So over the last 30 years, gold has very strongly underperformed vis-a-vis inflation.

Like anything else its value is subject to supply and demand.


Exactly Gold has much more room to go, this is no bubble.

wordgirl said: I see only one flaw in the argument: The BK court is going to inquire very closely as to when, and how, that gold and silver was liquidated. Since the OP (evidently) intends to keep it, he's going to have a hard time proving he sold it to pay his gambling debts. The BK court isn't going to take the leap from "I had a comped suite at Caesar's Palace!" to "I sold all my gold and silver and gambled the proceeds away!" without demonstrating that he actually did sell it instead of stacking it in a safe-deposit box somewhere in Arizona.That's solved easily enough by just taking cash advances instead of making purchases (and dealing with currency transaction reporting risks, presumably illegally). You still need to act like a big spender at the casino, and I'm not sure it's easy to look much bigger than you are.

Of course, the gain or loss on the precious metals is just a side show to the bankruptcy fraud. You could just bury stacks of $100 bills out in the desert about as easily as gold coins. Surely it would suck to succeed at your bankruptcy fraud and then lose your profits to the whims of the gold market.

ds1978 said: Exactly Gold has much more room to go, this is no bubble.

Gold has little industrial/fundamental value. Its value derives almost entirely from the expectation of reselling it in the future.

In a very real sense then, Gold is always a bubble. (i.e. value based on resale instead of fundamentals.)

this scheme lacks proper due diligence. I expect more rigorous planning from a longtime fwf member.

He's relying on a little bit of knowledge and all hope and
not applying any fwf skills - other than the aor.

for example he could have used his aor funds and written
option spreads that allowed him to
place this bet while limiting his risk for losing it all.
whether in commodities or betting the auburn-alabama
over-under an all or nothing wager is a sucker's bet.

Delzy - if he really did this - should be shrewder than this

Patch makes a lot of sense in his post above, but what he's missing is my unpopular belief that the dollar will be crushed and all financial instruments will become virtually worthless in a catastrophic financial or political event. Don't forget the sunset of the Federal Reserve Act is 2013 and it will have to be reauthorized before then. Also, don't forget the economic prosperity of Germany post-weimar. This is what I'm positioning for. The 18 month window is only significant in terms of a trustee's claw back.

Also, most are missing the dynamic of the cash advance vs. purchase mix. I fielded seven fraud calls in 24 hours making this happen and I'm still not sure if about $60k might be clawed back.

enc0re said: ds1978 said: Exactly Gold has much more room to go, this is no bubble.

Gold has little industrial/fundamental value. Its value derives almost entirely from the expectation of reselling it in the future.

In a very real sense then, Gold is always a bubble. (i.e. value based on resale instead of fundamentals.)


You could say the exact same thing if you replaced "paper currency" for gold in the above quote.

I don't have any problems with fiat currency. I'm just tired of folks saying gold has no inherent value, blah blah.

FWIW, they were telling me the same exact thing at $255 an ounce.

patch96 said: Delzy - if he really did this - should be shrewder than this

Agreed on both counts. I've done well in PM and almost never hold any physical metal.

enc0re said: ds1978 said: Exactly Gold has much more room to go, this is no bubble.

Gold has little industrial/fundamental value. Its value derives almost entirely from the expectation of reselling it in the future.

In a very real sense then, Gold is always a bubble. (i.e. value based on resale instead of fundamentals.)


IMHO, how it's value is derived, from a speculation perspective, is irrelevent. It's simply a function of supply and demand. If enough people like OP start believing that the little pieces of green paper they own are going to become less valuable, they will want to trade those pieces of paper for something. Be it gold, commodities, real estate, equities, or whatever. Gold traditionally is viewed as hedge against inflation, so rightly or wrongly, people will buy it if inflation expectation increase - which is exactly what the Fed is trying to do. More people buying gold means the price goes up. I'm not sure if it matters whether those people buying it are misguided.

"Bubble" doesn't mean that buying is misguided. In the Capital Asset Pricing Model, the value of an asset depends on two elements:
1. The discounted future cash flows of the asset. (The fundamental part). Gold has virtually no future cash flow apart from some industrial uses.
2. An indeterminate residual term reflecting the expectation of future appreciation. (The speculative part). The term "bubble" refers to this residual.

Gold is now @ $1400/oz

New merit badge for Risky Business

LH2004 said: You still need to act like a big spender at the casino, and I'm not sure it's easy to look much bigger than you are.
380k is nothing in Vegas. You could drop that in a single night and nobody would notice.

Jobowoo said: This man has balls of steel.
Not any more, one of gold and one of silver.

delzy said: On the news of QE2 last Wednesday I couldn't control myself any longer and snapped. I used all my credit cards from 6 years of AORs and bought 140k in Gold rounds and 240k in Silver rounds at an average borrowing cost of 19.6% interest representing 80% of my available credit. I paid about 4.4% premium over spot. I'm planning 4-6 high-rolling trips to Vegas while I service the debt for the next 18 months. At which time I plan cashing out a millionaire or being "broke" and visiting a bankruptcy judge. I foresee and expect some serious AA, but I will manage to stay current with no late payments for at least 18 months - at which time I will be rich or stop 100% of my debt service.

What could go wrong with my plan?


Preserved for impending bankruptcy/fraud court cases.

What I don't get is why a paranoid apocalypse expecting guy doing with a million dollar when currency is worthless? Or a cache of gold?

If not gun and ammo, I would rather have a huge tankful of gasoline and a muscle car. Mad Max, baby!

enc0re said: ds1978 said: Exactly Gold has much more room to go, this is no bubble.

Gold has little industrial/fundamental value. Its value derives almost entirely from the expectation of reselling it in the future.

In a very real sense then, Gold is always a bubble. (i.e. value based on resale instead of fundamentals.)


As viciously as many people will deny it ... gold is the original fiat currency.

ZenNUTS said: What I don't get is why a paranoid apocalypse expecting guy doing with a million dollar when currency is worthless? Or a cache of gold?

If not gun and ammo, I would rather have a huge tankful of gasoline and a muscle car. Mad Max, baby!


I've said that quite a few times and got red from the doom-and-gloom people, may be because that idea out dooms theirs? Weapons/Ammo, food, alcohol (to trade) and cigarettes (to trade) should be the main thing to stock pile. If you have the resources and dedication, several thousand gallons of fuel would be good too. In case of the complete financial meltdown of the country/world, people that bought their piles of gold will be the safest, since they won't have anything anyone wants.

Double post.

RushnRockt said: If you have the resources and dedication, several thousand gallons of fuel would be good too.

Don't forget the fuel stabilizer. Seriously. I know a guy who stockpiled some fuel in the 70s. It turned worthless after 1.5 years. Costly mistake.

enc0re said: RushnRockt said: If you have the resources and dedication, several thousand gallons of fuel would be good too.

Don't forget the fuel stabilizer. Seriously. I know a guy who stockpiled some fuel in the 70s. It turned worthless after 1.5 years. Costly mistake.


Buy a corn farm. Build a still. Import engines from Brazil that run on ethanol.

jcbrooks said: enc0re said: RushnRockt said: If you have the resources and dedication, several thousand gallons of fuel would be good too.

Don't forget the fuel stabilizer. Seriously. I know a guy who stockpiled some fuel in the 70s. It turned worthless after 1.5 years. Costly mistake.


Buy a corn farm. Build a still. Import engines from Brazil that run on ethanol.


Confucius say, never walk backwards through a corn field

I don't see anything that is going to cause an economy as strong as the USA to collapse in a singular SHTF catastrophe. QE2 + 0 rates + massive debt + other bad economic policies are a slow acting cancer that will take a great length of time to play out. It's not a Weimar/Zimbabwe scenario.

xoneinax said: Gold could reasonably hit $2k eventually, but yeah, I dont think it will still be $2k or above, 5 years from now.

FWIW, people were saying the same thing about $500 an ounce when gold hit that level.

Here's the real way to look at it. If you had got in gold at the bottom -- roughly 250 an ounce -- then gold is roughly 5.5x your original cost in 10 years.

For gold to match the past decade's performance, it would have to reach not $2k but $7700 an ounce at some point in the next 10 years.

Did anyone else have this flash in their head?

Mr. Madison, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

(Billy Madison, 1995)


On the news of QE2 last Wednesday I couldn't control myself any longer and snapped. I used all my credit cards from 6 years of AORs and bought 140k in Gold rounds and 240k in Silver rounds at an average borrowing cost of 19.6% interest representing 80% of my available credit. I paid about 4.4% premium over spot. I'm planning 4-6 high-rolling trips to Vegas while I service the debt for the next 18 months. At which time I plan cashing out a millionaire or being "broke" and visiting a bankruptcy judge. I foresee and expect some serious AA, but I will manage to stay current with no late payments for at least 18 months - at which time I will be rich or stop 100% of my debt service.

How many times have we seen this on FWF? We don't usually see an announcement when someone takes out large amounts of other people's money on a finance gamble, but we've seen quite a few of the aftermath disaster posts. CN47 started out like this too, in case anyone recalls - betting it all on a sure bet!

In the (likely) chance of failure here, the gold bugs will be struggling for an excuse (although they'll still find one, I'm sure) on this one. In the (unlikely, but still possible) chance of success, we'll hear no end to the gold bug squeals of glee.

ZenNUTS said: What I don't get is why a paranoid apocalypse expecting guy doing with a million dollar when currency is worthless? Or a cache of gold?

If not gun and ammo, I would rather have a huge tankful of gasoline and a muscle car. Mad Max, baby!


Shh, you are destroying worldviews of the doomtards when you talk such logic and reason. There is a subset of the population that simply wants doom and fantasizes about it and have preached every year were just months away from "the end of the United States" since the 1970s. It becomes more fashionable during economic recessions.

boden11 said: Stupidest idea EVARRR!!!

You have a headwind of > 23% due to the cost over spot and interest and that's not even factoring in liquidating your position. So even if gold hits $1,500 in 2 weeks, then what's you move?

And to do all of this because of what? $600 billion in QE? Pfft. You'd be better off using options to setup a position that would pay off just as much but with 1/100th the risk. Your rebuttal to that was that options would be worthless in a society that's totally gone to hell?? But why are you stockpiling worthless flashy metal in a society gone to hell. You should be stockpiling guns and ammo (based on your reasoning).
I've got lots of things stockpiled besides my "worthless flashy metal". You do realize that I've already gobbled up my purchase premium and interest to this point, don't you?

Here's what I want you to do. Post again on 11/23 when the pre-option-expiry short suppression is in full swing and then slink away on 11/25 when my silver hoard crosses $30. This stuff isn't rocket science. The mind-control memes you are under are the science intended to enslave us all. The fed said they are monetizing $1 trillion in the next 8 months and China is DONE floating us cash. When I hear everyone I know jumping on the PM bandwagon, I'll bail, but as long as most people think flashy metal is worthless (like you), I'm pretty sure I made the right move.

You can all say what you want, but when the silver/gold ratio gets more around its traditional 16-20, I doubt you'll be back to congratulate me. But maybe you will if gold drops to 300 and silver to 15.

Oh, I almost forgot, the UN / G20 are going to start investigating a partial gold backing to their SDRs. What do you think that is going to do to both gold and the USD?

BTW, I'm just wondering how many of you nay-sayers are short the worthless shiny metal right now?

jcbrooks said: As viciously as many people will deny it ... gold is the original fiat currency. ding, ding, ding! WINNER: stupidest post of the day!
magika said: Shh, you are destroying worldviews of the doomtards when you talk such logic and reason. There is a subset of the population that simply wants doom and fantasizes about it and have preached every year were just months away from "the end of the United States" since the 1970s. It becomes more fashionable during economic recessions. You must be a parasite of such a subset as you are always among the first to mention "doom" and you read your precious "doom" into almost all talk of normal market activity...

RationalMarketObserver: Gold is technically very strong and will serve as a nice insurance with so much downward pressure on the Dollar... Its current "bull market" is minuscule compared to most of the famous bull markets. DJ:gold ratio has neared parity in similar conditions more than once... Gold might be a smart play.
magika: OMFG, you like gold? Why do you think society is going to collapse, doomtard? You can't eat your gold, doomer, you should buy only guns and sacks of rice. You crazy fool, only grossly overvalued equities and a toxic dollar are reasonable investments.

delzy said: Here's what I want you to do. Post again on 11/23 when the pre-option-expiry short suppression is in full swing and then slink away on 11/25 when my silver hoard crosses $30.

Did you leave out the years on purpose?

delzy said: but as long as most people think flashy metal is worthless (like you), I'm pretty sure I made the right move.

So if most people think flashy metals are worthless... why are they going up? For the premise of your OP to remain correct, you will have to admit that you are not so special and there are tons of people making same types of assumptions as you, if not quite as gloomy.

delzy said: boden11 said: Stupidest idea EVARRR!!!

You have a headwind of > 23% due to the cost over spot and interest and that's not even factoring in liquidating your position. So even if gold hits $1,500 in 2 weeks, then what's you move?

And to do all of this because of what? $600 billion in QE? Pfft. You'd be better off using options to setup a position that would pay off just as much but with 1/100th the risk. Your rebuttal to that was that options would be worthless in a society that's totally gone to hell?? But why are you stockpiling worthless flashy metal in a society gone to hell. You should be stockpiling guns and ammo (based on your reasoning).
I've got lots of things stockpiled besides my "worthless flashy metal". You do realize that I've already gobbled up my purchase premium and interest to this point, don't you?

Here's what I want you to do. Post again on 11/23 when the pre-option-expiry short suppression is in full swing and then slink away on 11/25 when my silver hoard crosses $30. This stuff isn't rocket science. The mind-control memes you are under are the science intended to enslave us all. The fed said they are monetizing $1 trillion in the next 8 months and China is DONE floating us cash. When I hear everyone I know jumping on the PM bandwagon, I'll bail, but as long as most people think flashy metal is worthless (like you), I'm pretty sure I made the right move.

You can all say what you want, but when the silver/gold ratio gets more around its traditional 16-20, I doubt you'll be back to congratulate me. But maybe you will if gold drops to 300 and silver to 15.

Oh, I almost forgot, the UN / G20 are going to start investigating a partial gold backing to their SDRs. What do you think that is going to do to both gold and the USD?

BTW, I'm just wondering how many of you nay-sayers are short the worthless shiny metal right now?


They aren't short, they are most likely 'Slum Lords' living off Govt money and the Misery of others. OP I gotta say your move does take some guts, if you have Physical metal, you 'Could' always hide it and declare bankruptcy. Then dig it up and sell it slowly off.Did you buy the metals direct with the cards? It would have been better to take the cash and buy metal and say you lost the money gambling in bankruptcy court.

magika said: How many times have we seen this on FWF? We don't usually see an announcement when someone takes out large amounts of other people's money on a finance gamble, but we've seen quite a few of the aftermath disaster posts. CN47 started out like this too, in case anyone recalls - betting it all on a sure bet!

In the (likely) chance of failure here, the gold bugs will be struggling for an excuse (although they'll still find one, I'm sure) on this one. In the (unlikely, but still possible) chance of success, we'll hear no end to the gold bug squeals of glee.


We see new PM threads every time PMs hit new price records ... typically the even 100s for gold and 10s for silver.

Each time it's as if the sudden increase in PM prices sparked some sort of epiphany. <snore>

There's almost never a pro-PM thread unless there's already been a big move or an even number (in USD) price level has just been achieved.

What ever happened to CN47? I've seen him mentioned a few times in this thread and never really followed what he did or his outcome was.

Sorry to derail a little.

He purchased Novastar stock with his app-o-rama money. Then he took the Novastar shares and borrowed money against those, which he used to buy more Novastar. And I think some Canroys (you know - diversification). At the time, Novastar yielded like 30%. The plan was to use the dividend to pay his carrying costs. Unfortunately, things didn't work out as planned. Novastar, a subprime lender, dropped from $30 when CN47 was buying it, to around $1 and change in early 2008.

Turning lemons into lemonade, he now makes a living suing his creditors for unfair collection practices.

Rathipon said: Turning lemons into lemonade, he now makes a living suing his creditors for unfair collection practices.

Correction, he is not making a living.

Read the last couple of pages: http://www.fatwallet.com/forums/finance/984518/

Hey delzy -- do I understand correctly that prior to this alleged transaction you had not accumulated any significant assets of your own? Or are you planning to bury those in the desert as well?



Disclaimer: By providing links to other sites, FatWallet.com does not guarantee, approve or endorse the information or products available at these sites, nor does a link indicate any association with or endorsement by the linked site to FatWallet.com.

Thanks for visiting FatWallet.com. Join for free to remove this ad.

TRUSTe online privacy certification

While FatWallet makes every effort to post correct information, offers are subject to change without notice.
Some exclusions may apply based upon merchant policies.
© 1999-2014