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I've often wondered why most Americans haven't done this already -- not necessarily the precious metals part, just the AOR default.

please provide an update if it works out

if it fails .... you can return as codenameXX


...

Long-time lurker here, first time poster...

This is probably a joke, but if the OP was serious, here's some tips for Vegas:

1. In order to get the "high roller" treatment you'll want to talk to a casino host. These people are responsible for taking care of high rollers. Once you get above the low black-chip level (i.e. you're betting more than a few hundred a hand) your host will be able to pull a lot of discretionary comps for you. These include things like airfare reimbursement, staying in high-level suites, private jets, and of course reimbursing losses.

2. Make sure you get a player's card at every casino you visit. This will tell them who you are, and allow them to track your play. Always use your card when you play.

3. Buy in for a LOT of money when you sit down at a table. This will increase your rating at many casinos, but not all (particularly the Harrah's network). Be aware, however, that anything over $10k in one day will generate a CTR which could be a headache for you, although I doubt it if you'll be churning serious money.

4. Bet a LOT of money when you first sit down. Like maybe table max. The floor person will typically write down/enter into the computer how much you bought in for, and how much you bet on the first few hands. If it's quite crowded, they may only rate the first hand. If it's really crowded, they may write your bet down how much you bet on the first hand, and you can take some of this bet down when they walk away but before the hand is dealt. Once they hand you your card back, this means you are in the system.

5. Once you are rated at a high level, you can drop your bets back some. Now, if you came in betting $5k, and they see you betting $10 later, things could get dicey. But a stupid floor person may leave you at the $5k bet level even if you're only betting $500 a hand for many hours. Playing at a full table AND playing slowly both reduce your hands per hour, which reduces your loss rate. Also, find slow dealers. Also, find casinos that place the cut-card further up in the deck, which means they will shuffle more frequently.

6. Play games with a low house advantage. The pass line/don't in craps and the player or banker in baccarat both have house advantages of a little over 1%. With full odds on craps with high multiple (like 100x odds) the house edge drops below .1%. Blackjack has a very low house advantage IF you know basic strategy. You can get a basic strategy card almost anywhere, including the gift shop, but make sure it's for the right game. High limit rooms in Vegas typically have a house edge of around .2-.5% for a basic strategy player. Especially watch out for casinos that hit soft 17; this give the house an extra .2% or so. Video poker has a low house advantage, but you can't lie to a machine about how much you're betting. However, there are high limit video poker games in Vegas that return over 99.5%, some up to 99.9%. It's extremely important that you use the correct strategy for your video poker game, and check the paytables to make sure they are full pay.

7. Hide chips. It's quite hard to hide high denomination chips, like purple (500) and above, but you can usually hide blacks (100) or greens (25). This will make it look like you're losing. Don't tell them you have chips in your pocket, either. Don't hide anything that no one else is betting. I.e. if you're the only one betting purples, and everyone is betting greens, you can only hide the greens or they'll know it was you.

8. Just ask for shit. Ask for suites, steakhouse comps, limo rides, show tickets for you and 10 people, wine sent to your room, etc. Ask multiple people; sometimes a pit boss can comp certain things, other times only the host can do it, and other times only the casino manager can do it (airfare and other cash comps usually need to be approved by upper management).

9. Loss rebates are possible for whales. These are typically 5% of your losses, although sometimes they may give flat amounts. This is most prevalent with baccarat players, because most whales play baccarat.

10. Hosts are not just looking for large bets. They also want someone who will lose a lot in one session. Bet $1k a hand and lose $10k and then go to your room? You're only a $10k player, even though you play $1k a hand. Go into your pocket five times? Then you're a $50k player.

11. Some places have a disconnect between marketing and gaming. That is, if you go to a casino and use your mail offers, the casino may not recognize that you are there unless you actually gamble.

Wow, you might want to get a medical physical. Could be a tumor or something, at least you'll have an excuse if it crashes.

valueinvestor said: Long-time lurker here, first time poster...

This is probably a joke, but if the OP was serious, here's some tips for Vegas:

1. In order to get the "high roller" treatment you'll want to talk to a casino host. These people are responsible for taking care of high rollers. Once you get above the low black-chip level (i.e. you're betting more than a few hundred a hand) your host will be able to pull a lot of discretionary comps for you. These include things like airfare reimbursement, staying in high-level suites, private jets, and of course reimbursing losses.

2. Make sure you get a player's card at every casino you visit. This will tell them who you are, and allow them to track your play. Always use your card when you play.

3. Buy in for a LOT of money when you sit down at a table. This will increase your rating at many casinos, but not all (particularly the Harrah's network). Be aware, however, that anything over $10k in one day will generate a CTR which could be a headache for you, although I doubt it if you'll be churning serious money.

4. Bet a LOT of money when you first sit down. Like maybe table max. The floor person will typically write down/enter into the computer how much you bought in for, and how much you bet on the first few hands. If it's quite crowded, they may only rate the first hand. If it's really crowded, they may write your bet down how much you bet on the first hand, and you can take some of this bet down when they walk away but before the hand is dealt. Once they hand you your card back, this means you are in the system.

5. Once you are rated at a high level, you can drop your bets back some. Now, if you came in betting $5k, and they see you betting $10 later, things could get dicey. But a stupid floor person may leave you at the $5k bet level even if you're only betting $500 a hand for many hours. Playing at a full table AND playing slowly both reduce your hands per hour, which reduces your loss rate. Also, find slow dealers. Also, find casinos that place the cut-card further up in the deck, which means they will shuffle more frequently.

6. Play games with a low house advantage. The pass line/don't in craps and the player or banker in baccarat both have house advantages of a little over 1%. With full odds on craps with high multiple (like 100x odds) the house edge drops below .1%. Blackjack has a very low house advantage IF you know basic strategy. You can get a basic strategy card almost anywhere, including the gift shop, but make sure it's for the right game. High limit rooms in Vegas typically have a house edge of around .2-.5% for a basic strategy player. Especially watch out for casinos that hit soft 17; this give the house an extra .2% or so. Video poker has a low house advantage, but you can't lie to a machine about how much you're betting. However, there are high limit video poker games in Vegas that return over 99.5%, some up to 99.9%. It's extremely important that you use the correct strategy for your video poker game, and check the paytables to make sure they are full pay.

7. Hide chips. It's quite hard to hide high denomination chips, like purple (500) and above, but you can usually hide blacks (100) or greens (25). This will make it look like you're losing. Don't tell them you have chips in your pocket, either. Don't hide anything that no one else is betting. I.e. if you're the only one betting purples, and everyone is betting greens, you can only hide the greens or they'll know it was you.

8. Just ask for shit. Ask for suites, steakhouse comps, limo rides, show tickets for you and 10 people, wine sent to your room, etc. Ask multiple people; sometimes a pit boss can comp certain things, other times only the host can do it, and other times only the casino manager can do it (airfare and other cash comps usually need to be approved by upper management).

9. Loss rebates are possible for whales. These are typically 5% of your losses, although sometimes they may give flat amounts. This is most prevalent with baccarat players, because most whales play baccarat.

10. Hosts are not just looking for large bets. They also want someone who will lose a lot in one session. Bet $1k a hand and lose $10k and then go to your room? You're only a $10k player, even though you play $1k a hand. Go into your pocket five times? Then you're a $50k player.

11. Some places have a disconnect between marketing and gaming. That is, if you go to a casino and use your mail offers, the casino may not recognize that you are there unless you actually gamble.
Great tips. I usually play craps - pass line, maximum odds, place 6 and 8 for at least 2 units and cover the 5 and 9 on the first hit. How large of sessions do you think would be appropriate to achieve my goals?

jcbrooks said: Buy a corn farm. Build a still. Import engines from Brazil that run on ethanol. You left out the last two steps:
4. Find out your input energy is greater than your output energy.
5. Rue the day you followed internet advice without doing your homework.

Of course you could always sell it as moonshine but that's dangerous business.

markettimer said: I've often wondered why most Americans haven't done this already -- not necessarily the precious metals part, just the AOR default.

Go to california. 1/2 the homeowners in the state has done this (in somewhat similar fashion) via a heloc.

Hey delzy, can you tell us the exact prices you paid and amounts of gold and silver (so we can follow how you're doing)? Did you consider taking a COMEX delivery or two (for a <1% physical premium)? Obviously the rounds are easier to liquidate (under the table), especially if prices skyrocket. Have you set an official target (so you know when to sell and repay the CCs) or is it going to be based entirely off of the price in 18 months? What if you make a 10% return after interest expenses? Will you still default (hiding the PMs)? Are there some really high interest cards you could pay off early if it looks like you're winning?

If you're truly committed to riding this thing out, why even bother repaying the debt at all? Even if you win on gold and win at the casino couldn't you just say you lost at the casino and default on the debt? Chances are that you'll either lose big at the casino or if you're lucky you'll break even over that long of a time frame. Either way, it's just as easy to say you lost it all at the casino, declare BK and live on the gold.

I have to give it to you...you've got balls. Assuming you don't get busted for fraud this seems to be a win/win situation. If gold skyrockets you've got valuable gold, if gold tanks or remains the same, you've got less valuable gold. Not at all like CN47 where he bought something that truly lost all of its value and had nothing to fall back on. At a very minimum, you will have gold.

Delzy

I really can't beleive you did this, but I will play along.

I too have made extremely large (based on a % of my total portfolio) option plays on various commodities when I was 100% sure of a coming event (or non-event in the case of writing options.) These were commodities that I had followed daily (tic by tic) for years.

Have you put together a specfic exit strategy? If so, please share

LOL, silver is flying... I too would like to hear the exit strategy. Also, how are you storing all this? Bank box, which can be opened under court order? Foreign vault? Buried in a ND field?

Again, I can't understand the all or nothing aspect. Would you consider scaling out, while still retaining say 60% of your position?

Exit strategy:

Pre-established trigger points to fund highest interest debts first. If at anytime I can pay off all my debts and keep 30% of my hoard, I'll do it, but that's a little easier said than done due to logistics and tax ramifications. But remember, I already have tax ramifications (especially in the case of default).It may require the use of options to fix rapidly changing prices while I cash out part of my hoard in an orderly manner.

Of course, if systemic changes blast my plans, I'll modify my strategy.

What's the worst which could happen?

Let's say the metal price stays the same for the next 18 months. OP will be out for 100K. Big deal, I am sure OP has enough assets to cover that. He only needs to sell all the junk he bought because of FW.

valueinvestor said: 5. Also, find casinos that place the cut-card further up in the deck, which means they will shuffle more frequently.

curious ... what does this achieve other than reducing your ability to count?

anyway OP needs a 101 lesson in trolling and/or trading.

mazeroth said: Some friends of mine, who also frequent this forum, were talking about something similar, kind-of. You do an AOR and get, say, $300k in credit. You spend it all in a few months and never pay on them.

What happens to you? What happens if you were planning to move out of the country and did this?

Discuss.


you make out like a bandit. CC's will never chase you overseas. Good luck.

BTW, you are planning to skip town overseas right?

johnqh said: What's the worst which could happen?

Dunno. Considering the gold/silver price ratio is fairly far outside of the normal range, one would guess something would happen.

motuwallet said: valueinvestor said: 5. Also, find casinos that place the cut-card further up in the deck, which means they will shuffle more frequently.

curious ... what does this achieve other than reducing your ability to count?


It followed a sentence about finding slow dealers to delay losses, so my guess is it kills time

delzy,

What is the opportunity cost for you if you have to declare bankruptcy? I mean will a bankruptcy record reduces your chance of landing a good paying job? (of course it depends of what you are earning right now)

delzy said: Pre-established trigger points to fund highest interest debts first. That makes sense. Are you willing to share them so we can follow along?

I don't believe you are actually doing this. I know if I was executing a strategy whose main thrust was bankruptcy fraud, I wouldn't post the details on a public message board. That said, it should be amusing, so carry on.

LH2004 said: You could just bury stacks of $100 bills out in the desert about as easily as gold coins. Surely it would suck to succeed at your bankruptcy fraud and then lose your profits to the whims of the gold market.But from the other perspective, a $100 bill could be relatively worthless in 5 years, while that ounce of gold is more likely to maintain a stable value on relative terms - the amount of gold needed to "acquire" a box of ammo now will be roughly the same amount of gold needed to acquire a box of ammo in 5 years, while buying the ammo with cash requires $100 now but could require $1000 in five years.

Of course, the odds are 50/50 for either perspective proving to be the best approach.

the guns/ammo folks have always been a little too kooky for me....

even during ww1, ww2 and great depression there was no "guns and ammo" society in america. This current economic crisis is going to change the finance markets dramatically, but in the end most people are going to keep living their humdrum lives through it all....

SUCKISSTAPLES said: even during ww1, ww2 and great depression there was no "guns and ammo" society in america.

And farmers lost their farms during the depression due to the collapse of a cash market for their crops/livestock.

mazeroth said: What ever happened to CN47? I've seen him mentioned a few times in this thread and never really followed what he did or his outcome was.

Sorry to derail a little.


Imagine if he took the short side of that bet...

BEEFjerKAY said: SUCKISSTAPLES said: even during ww1, ww2 and great depression there was no "guns and ammo" society in america.

And farmers lost their farms during the depression due to the collapse of a cash market for their crops/livestock.
yeah my grandpa lost his farm in the GD.

Question is , what is the average americans going to lose this time?

We dont have farms anymore. They have an underwater house and an upside down car payment. Lenders dont even WANT those back anymore, so they get to stay in their house 2-3 years without paying before they get kicked out and find a rental....and

plus If foreclosures got anywhere near GD levels, the govt would step in with some "rent back" strategy or payment freeze or silent second or something. I just dont see the masses really changing their everyday lives...some might go from being owners to renters, but they NEVER were really owners anyway, they weree renting from the bank with 0 -3% down

I can't wait to start my own gambling adventure thread - I'm all in - deposited $20k into my futures account, shorted $1 million worth of gold.

SUCKISSTAPLES said: Question is , what is the average americans going to lose this time?

That's easy. They are going to lose their ability to easily move to a different city/region for a better job. Something that's been an underpinning of American industrial competitiveness for more than a century.

Over the past 40-50 years, that ability to easily sell your house then pick up and move for a better opportunity probably has economic value second only to gains in the stock market and real estate.

BEEFjerKAY said: SUCKISSTAPLES said: Question is , what is the average americans going to lose this time?

That's easy. They are going to lose their ability to easily move to a different city/region for a better job. Something that's been an underpinning of American industrial competitiveness for more than a century.

Over the past 40-50 years, that ability to easily sell your house then pick up and move for a better opportunity probably has economic value second only to gains in the stock market and real estate.



they might not be able to sell their underwater home , or have good enough credit to buy another, but they can pick up and move as renters very easily it seems. As soon as enough people stop being homeowners and become renters, they can easily move for job prospects.... and with so many having prior foreclosures, that metric wont even count against them in a landlords eyes


Gone are the days of security interests in personal property (once a mainstay of creditors rights just a decade or two ago) so everyone still keeps all their toys, packs up their stuff and moves. In fact its now EASIER than before...before you had to list your home for sale, maybe make $20-50k on your home sale in moderate areas, then relocate. Now you live payment free , saving that $20k of mortgage payments, turn in the keys and move. No realtor to deal with and a cash for keys parting gift. Its the same process of "getting paid to move", just executed a bit differently than when home values were going up

i just dont see how peoples lives would ever get to the guns and ammo stage... when the vast majority of ppl are already broke.

Owning an underwater house and upside down car is as bad as being destitute, but people dont see it that way

#1. I'm not positive on this, but Casino Royale was the only casino I found doing 100x odds on craps. And they only do this on one table as well. It's not exactly the nicest casino but if you bet like a whale (there it wouldn't take much) I guess you could get some comps but this isn't exactly the Wynn, but it is a lot of fun there. The same people have always worked there over the past few years and most of them are a lot of fun unlike the stuck up casino's.

#2. Just to comment on SIS's mention of foreclosures. For some banks this is not working any more. A friend of mine just last week was foreclosed on. His house is underwater and behind on payments exactly 92 days when he got the letter from the attorneys for CitiMortgage. Beware the foreclosures now! Things are not taking 2-3 years for all banks any more.

#3. Believe it or not, I've counseled quite a few businesses who have done stupider things with large amounts of money. You'd be surprised how many businesses tank within the same 18 months the OP is planning this with poor planning and/or poor execution. The end result is still the same, and temporary financial ruins (still most of these people get to keep a car, and basically all small assets (clothes and many "house" things).

In any case this is rather amusing and I'll be curious to see how it goes.

SUCKISSTAPLES said: As soon as enough people stop being homeowners and become renters, they can easily move for job prospects.... and with so many having prior foreclosures, that metric wont even count against them in a landlords eyes ...Owning an underwater house and upside down car is as bad as being destitute, but people dont see it that way

True. So many people still think the current downturn in housing prices is a temporary blip that they will be able to outlast ... and then eventually be able to sell at a profit.

We spent decades extolling how homeownership was key to achieving the american dream. And many have a buy-on-the-dips mentality still. It will take a while before people realize those days are gone and not coming back anytime soon.

IMO, the worst thing anyone younger than 25 or maybe 30 could do right now is buy a house. The NPV of having the ability to change jobs for an additional $20k -- or to get a job at all -- is far in excess of $400k at today's interest rates.

Glitch99 said: while that ounce of gold is more likely to maintain a stable value on relative terms - the amount of gold needed to "acquire" a box of ammo now will be roughly the same amount of gold needed to acquire a box of ammo in 5 years

How exactly did you arrive at that conclusion?


SUCKISSTAPLES said: even during ww1, ww2 and great depression there was no "guns and ammo" society in america. This current economic crisis is going to change the finance markets dramatically, but in the end most people are going to keep living their humdrum lives through it all....

Neither one of those cases is an example of a complete economic collapse prophesied by the doom-and-gloom folk. And that's the point of discussion here, what's the use for gold when the economy has collapsed?

SUCKISSTAPLES said: ..Owning an underwater house and upside down car is as bad as being destitute, but people dont see it that wayNo, being destitute is living in your upside down car and moving around every day so your "home" doesn't get repo'ed. Owning an underwater house and upside down car doesn't mean squat if you're cash is flowing positive (even if you aren't making the payments). The guns and ammo stage will come if the government owns a majority of the homes and starts trying evict all the squatters when real unemployment is over 50%.

BEEFjerKAY said: SUCKISSTAPLES said: As soon as enough people stop being homeowners and become renters, they can easily move for job prospects.... and with so many having prior foreclosures, that metric wont even count against them in a landlords eyes ...Owning an underwater house and upside down car is as bad as being destitute, but people dont see it that way

True. So many people still think the current downturn in housing prices is a temporary blip that they will be able to outlast ... and then eventually be able to sell at a profit.

We spent decades extolling how homeownership was key to achieving the american dream. And many have a buy-on-the-dips mentality still. It will take a while before people realize those days are gone and not coming back anytime soon.

IMO, the worst thing anyone younger than 25 or maybe 30 could do right now is buy a house. The NPV of having the ability to change jobs for an additional $20k -- or to get a job at all -- is far in excess of $400k at today's interest rates.


Speak for yourself about buying a home. Last summer I bought a second home which was a foreclosure in SoFLA at less than half off the last selling price, this year appraisal value is 33% higher. I'm cashing out for more than I paid for the home at a 4% interest rate. Even if it still goes to crap, I got my money back and really couldn't care less what happens. It's a great time to buy as long as you want to OWN, and just don't do it in hopes of doubling your money or something silly like that.

OIL is outside it's Historic range, when do you material bears think it's gonna hit $20 a Barrel again?

Kingofthenet said: OIL is outside it's Historic range, when do you material bears think it's gonna hit $20 a Barrel again?

Oil is consumed absolutely, gold is not.

jkimcpa said: Kingofthenet said: OIL is outside it's Historic range, when do you material bears think it's gonna hit $20 a Barrel again?

Oil is consumed absolutely, gold is not.


You can't see the TRUTH right in front of you...We have THREE BILLION people (Primary in China and India) quickly moving from the poor to the middle class, Commodities are going to remain high FOREVER. They WANT to live like the West and damn they are going to try till Mother Earth says no more.

RushnRockt said: Glitch99 said: while that ounce of gold is more likely to maintain a stable value on relative terms - the amount of gold needed to "acquire" a box of ammo now will be roughly the same amount of gold needed to acquire a box of ammo in 5 years

How exactly did you arrive at that conclusion?
Read my entire quote, you'll see it's an alternate perspective. No more a conclusion than that dollar bills holding their value while gold tanks; I even stated the 50/50 odds of it being correct.

QE2 is a clear signal. To all consumers and businesses: Take that CASH out of your mattresses and do something with it, otherwise it will rot. If the signal isn't strong enough for the deaf and dumb or the overly cautious, you can be sure there will be QE3 and QE4. When enough people move in the same direction, perhaps the economy will start to rise again.

whodini said: QE2 is a clear signal. To all consumers and businesses: Take that CASH out of your mattresses and do something with it, otherwise it will rot. If the signal isn't strong enough for the deaf and dumb or the overly cautious, you can be sure there will be QE3 and QE4. When enough people move in the same direction, perhaps the economy will start to rise again.

Very well stated. I think there will be a great deal of resistance to a QE3 & certainly by the time we get to QE4...once people see the impact these actions are having on their buying power heads will (SHOULD) roll. Once they start down this path, I don't see any alternative to continuing down it...since China is no longer going to want to be a buyer of US treasuries, so the fed is creating their own buyer.



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