Hedging Inflation - Buy Gold / Silver, whats the best way?

Despite our 401k portfolio suffering the last few days, I am a firm believer that the central banks will continue to print money. I have never been a huge supporter of buying gold, from an downside/upside perspective. Looking at silver right now, and I think that could be interesting given the recent move. Any good ways to buy American Eagle coins? The US mint website does not seem to provide market pricing (or charge reasonable premiums)for their silver coins.

Any thoughts? Thinking about ETFs, but would rather own the physical.

There are Eleventy billion threads on metals.....Was this one really necessary?

Opinions vary but APMEX has been reliable. You can find deals on eBay also.

OverMachoGrande said:   Opinions vary but APMEX has been reliable. You can find deals on eBay also.

THIS! True story.

ardeus said:   Despite our 401k portfolio suffering the last few days, I am a firm believer that the central banks will continue to print money. I have never been a huge supporter of buying gold, from an downside/upside perspective. Looking at silver right now, and I think that could be interesting given the recent move. Any good ways to buy American Eagle coins? The US mint website does not seem to provide market pricing (or charge reasonable premiums)for their silver coins.

Any thoughts? Thinking about ETFs, but would rather own the physical.

At this rate in 20 years we are all going to wish we are not alive. 401k would be the least of my worries.

tulving.com has the smallest spreads I've ever seen, but their minimums are high.

I did a quick 5 minute search and discussions aboutthat 2012 coin were mixed. Some saying the new reverse proof (whatever that does) was different, but others saying the mint not limiting the run was a value killer. So, could you explain what you're talking about?

RhizzleBop said:   I did a quick 5 minute search and discussions aboutthat 2012 coin were mixed. Some saying the new reverse proof (whatever that does) was different, but others saying the mint not limiting the run was a value killer. So, could you explain what you're talking about?

1. The new reverse proof (RP) is unique. It is RP with S mint mark. The 2006-P (250k mintage) and 2011-P (100k mintage) have P mint mark.

2. It is true that because this set will be minted to demand within the 1 month ordering period, the mintage will likely be much larger than 2006-P and 2011-P.

3. I do not expect it will have 7-9X gain in value like the 2011-P did. However, silver eagle is one of the most popular item, and the regular proof eagle has sold 700k+ in each of the last few years. Some people will just forget to order, and some new collectors will want to collect it in the coming few years. I am not saying the numismatic will increase a lot, but it will offer a safety net in case silver tank.

4. Dealers and speculators will most likely stock up on this set. This is a major factor that there will be a ceiling for this set because of over supply in the short run. However, it is also another factor that it will likely has a floor price. Why would those dealers sell them at a loss consider this set is still has limited supply?

5. If you look at historical data for the popular but high mintage coins, it may offer some guidance.

a) 2001 silver buffalo 1oz. The offer price was $3x. Mintage was around 500k (unc and proof). The price today is ~$120

b) 2009 UHR 1oz gold. The offer price was around $1,2xx. Mintage was ~100k. The price today is $3k+

c) Regular Proof silver eagle. Each year the mint sell 500K to 800K. Now the secondary market price is ~$60 (similar to the latest offer price).

5. The point I want to make is buying this set will NOT make you rich. But if you want invest in silver bullion, it may be a more conservative way to invest because it offers a nice cushion when silver price drops. On the other hand, if silver rises, your return might be lower because there is premium over spot when you buy them. Also it may not be as liquid as regular ASE if you want to dump them on the market quick (you may only get the bullion value).

6. Personally, I bought 2010 ATB bullion coin when the silver price was around $40-$50. Today, I still won't lose a dime if I sell them on eBay. Last year, I brought 100sets 25th anni silver eagle, and of course, it was a good run. This year, the short term return of the San Francisco silver eagle will not be great, but if I am buying silver anyway, I will definitely allocate some money to it.

my 2 cents.

Stay in USD cash because everything will crash when panic hits. Then buy stocks. The best inflation hedge is whatever has cash flow stream that will go up with inflation. That's corporations and real estate. Metals do not generate cash flow and only go up when you have a permanent shift in the money supply due to monetization.

SantaLink said: .... 6. Personally, I bought 2010 ATB bullion coin when the silver price was around $40-$50. Today, I still won't lose a dime if I sell them on eBay. Last year, I brought 100sets 25th anni silver eagle, and of course, it was a good run. This year, the short term return of the San Francisco silver eagle will not be great, but if I am buying silver anyway, I will definitely allocate some money to it. ....I bought several ATB 5 ounce coin sets and frankly, am disappointed in their performance. Even taking into consideration the fact that the market price of silver is lower now than when I bought them, I expected more numismatic value once the mintage sold out. The sets are still available at many online precious metals dealers, not to mention eBay. They're not particularly scarce and other than when they first hit the market, and very shortly thereafter, they have been selling more or less at silver spot prices. Big deal, in my opinion.

I bought a few 2012 Canadian Maple Leaf Titanic and Dragon reverse proof coins. I probably shouldn't be talking about this, but as I write this, money can be made buying these new coins and selling them on eBay. That doesn't happen often with coins. eBay buyers are generally very astute about spot prices and don't generally bid silver coins above, for example, APMEX selling prices. There appears to be an anomaly at the moment regarding the Titanic and Dragon reverse proof coins. I'm trying to decide whether to go for the quick profit now or hold onto the ones I have with the expectation that they will appreciate.

I have been buying my coins from APMEX, but now that they have begun collecting sales tax in NY (where I live), they are no longer my number one choice when buying precious metals. That 8% really hurts. However, sometimes they are the only source for certain coins or bars.

Were I to be in a silver buying mood (not coins) I'd be looking at 100 ounce Royal Canadian mint bars. Latest price is approximately $3,001 if you know where to look.

EDIT: now $2987...$2953

Gold and silver don't make the kind of money that you can get from certain safer stocks. For instance, Apple is falling a bit right now and you may be able to buy it at $500 - $540 in the next few weeks. Then, hold it and your investment will double within 18 months. Sure, it will have some pullbacks here and there after the run up in June starts, but holding in a run from a low position like what's setting up now will be quite profitable. Let a winner run. Apple is a very strong company with huge growth to come. Gold won't do nearly that well within the next 2 to 3 years. Besides, it's got a dividend and stock buyback coming which will add even more safety. I realize this isn't for everyone and some can get too stressed from seeing daily volatility, but it's made money for me.

You might want to check out Goldismoney2

Providentmetals.com is a good place to buy.