is another housing boom starting?

ditto, and you should decide what you will pay for a house based on it's value, not based on what other people are doing. Buying an overpriced asset in the hopes that the price will go higher is the definition of a bubble. If the value is good, buy it, if not, don't.

Seems to be more activity since the first of the year here in Austin. Inventory down about 16 percent, median price up about 5 percent.

It's back to 2006 again in Many areas... Multiple bids , over asking price sales etc.

Look for this to continue . 97% FHA loans still making it easy to buy with almost nothing down

This is actually a pretty big problem in quite a few markets now. There is a huge segment of would be sellers out there that I call "discretionary sellers." This is because while they'd like to sell, they don't have to sell and can easily afford to stay in their current homes until the market improves enough to allow them to get the price that they want or need.

One of the reasons that it is a problem is because in a lot of markets out there this has translated into a fairly limited supply of housing inventory. There are plenty of buyers who have no desire to deal with foreclosed properties, as they are typically not in the condition that they want them to be in and buying an REO property comes with certain risks, and short sales can be extraordinary difficult to deal with, especially if potential buyers need to adhere to a certain timeline. Hence, in our market, for instance, there is actually an enormous shortage of regular non-REO properties. Not too long ago friends of ours were in the market for a much higher end home, received quite a few acceptable offers in a very short period of time on their current home, which is very nice and is located in an excellent school district, but had to reject all the offers and abandoned their search because there wasn't enough satisfactory supply on the market. In our case, we live in a rather large subdivision, which has only had two foreclosures, and is otherwise very attractive to people because of its location and amenities. Yet, for a while it had no houses on the market because while some of the owners would like to sell, they are not willing to do so at these prices and can easily afford to continue to live there. Hence, the reason that in our and many other cases now realtors are having to send out unsolicited letters to property owners saying that they have serious buyers who are interested in that particular subdivision and are asking people to contact them if they might be willing to sell.

It's a bit of a crazy situation where prices are often very attractive but the housing supply is also extremely limited.

Let me be the first to go on record warning of the impending down market in housing. It may take some time for the market to see what I see, but believe me, it's on the horizon.

germanpope said:   raringvt said:   Let me be the first to go on record warning of the impending down market in housing. It may take some time for the market to see what I see, but believe me, it's on the horizon.

and ... What do YOU see?

I tend to agree with him, but at the same time, I am still amazed at how high home prices still are in certain areas of the country, almost as if they expect everyone's wages to increase (and the job market is actually good). Aside from federal employees and facebook people, who is making all this money?

Saying that housing will implode some day is like saying that stock market will fall some day.. Useless. A broken clock is also right twice a day..

intex45 said:   germanpope said:   raringvt said:   Let me be the first to go on record warning of the impending down market in housing. It may take some time for the market to see what I see, but believe me, it's on the horizon.

and ... What do YOU see?

I tend to agree with him, but at the same time, I am still amazed at how high home prices still are in certain areas of the country, almost as if they expect everyone's wages to increase (and the job market is actually good). Aside from federal employees and facebook people, who is making all this money?

These people. Here too.

In the "depressed" area I am interested in, the prices are already 20-30% higher in the last 6 months and inventory has slowed to 1 new home per week instead of 10 homes per week.

Listings are going within a week with highest and best a norm. Houses in these areas are in the 100k range but families struggle to make $20/ hr. Even in neighborhoods of 700k+ homes, people are able to sell with a Coming Soon board out front.

Rising prices are an early sign of rapid inflation. I think fed would start raising rates in 6 months

Lot's of crappy houses for sale in SoCal... I've tracked a few SS's and bank owned properties for better than a year that have not sold and the price keeps eroding. The banks are starting to put a few bucks into some of their inventory to get them into livable condition. They stop way short of making them "nice."

Not much good stuff for sale, though. I agree with the several folks that have mentioned discretionary sellers sitting on their homes until they think they can get a better price. A few nice homes are listed at crazy high prices, by folks that don't seem to care if they sell or not. I did enjoy sending a RE agent a "happy anniversary" greeting on the one-year anniversary of one of his listings that he declined to present my generous offers on.

Just remember that in the SF bay area, multiple bids can ALWAYS be generated by underpricing a property. Even in downturns there is enough demand at a given price point. In fact, that's what most realtors do to encourage overbidding. So, multiple bids are not really an indicator of market health.

That said, jobs are booming in the bay area and real estate prices track compensation. That just increases your risk of course because if jobs go away (and god forbid interest rates go up) they will have a lot farther to crash than in other parts of the country. Such is life in the perpetual boom and bust that is the bay area.

To add insult to injury, most people have to stretch and buy a place that is too small to allow for the standard "I'll just live here for 10 years if theres a bust". I have friends who got married and had a baby come during the S OMA loft crash in 2001 and found themselves stuck in what was effectively a one room place. Starter shacks out here are generally not friendly to growing families.

From what I interpret, another 15% fall should occur in near term, though markets are local.

it is hype created by agents and seller in bay area due to facebook ipo. And this is election year, banks will hold on to foreclosures.

fact is LinkedIn IPO last year didn't move the real estate market as much as expected, and Facebook employees may be even more low key.

another fact is market can remain irrational for longer than one can hold ... whether it is real state market in bay area or stock market.

In Atlanta existing home prices continue to drop but builders are building new houses and selling them at higher prices.
Bay area there is no new construction at all ... desirable areas have high demand low inventory ... non-desirable area have inventory and no buyers.

I'm currently renting a condo in Northern VA, just outside the official DC metro area. The listing prices of condos for sale in this development are ~7-10% higher than last year, but I don't know that any have sold recently.

ezwinner701 said:   inventory is crazy low here in the bay area and bidding wars are everyone. and i read from redfin it's happening in the big "investment" cities too. san diego, seattle, phoenix, las vegas. whats the inventory like at your local area?

Will this change the scene?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hp-mulls-cutting-workforce-8-18560...

Xenth said:   adawra said:   In Atlanta existing home prices continue to drop but builders are building new houses and selling them at higher prices.

No kidding. I'll be amazed if some of these places sell.

Builders have advantage ... they can throw free upgrades (they call it free but home base price already includes some cost) .. it doesn't cost them much because they use cheap material and cheap labor (they already have contractors).

While existing homeowners can't do that because:
1. it cost them much more than builders.
2. even after upgrade buyer looks only at what seller paid when they bought ... all additions or upgrades have zero value.

New properties are selling in Atlanta ... even though it is not that crazy like RE boom time where builder will have several homes ready for buyers to choose and move in quickly ... it is now almost made to order they start construction after buyer signs a contract.

Throwing in the fact that inventory is at amazing lows here in san diego. Nobody is listing unless they are forced to through shortsales or forclosures. Decent houses that are brought to market are snapped up within a week. Good houses going on the market are once again a bidding war with multiple cash offers. This is the time of year inventory should be increasing, but it has continued to fall at a remarkable pace for the past 3 months. This really is strange that it is a national phenomena. Also, this is probably confirmation bias, but I am seeing the construction industry come back in my neighborhood. The builders are out, I've seen 2 dormant build lots suddenly wake up and new houses are springing up, several a month.

What is goin on?

I am planning to buy a house in the bay area (95132) as well. However, I will wait for the election to be over, big banks to clear up their foreclosure "pipe," and PIGGS mess to clear up. I think the beginning of 2013 would be a good time to start buying.

hatoraide said:   riznick said:   hatoraide said:   Throwing in the fact that inventory is at amazing lows here in san diego. Nobody is listing unless they are forced to through shortsales or forclosures. Decent houses that are brought to market are snapped up within a week. Good houses going on the market are once again a bidding war with multiple cash offers. This is the time of year inventory should be increasing, but it has continued to fall at a remarkable pace for the past 3 months. This really is strange that it is a national phenomena. Also, this is probably confirmation bias, but I am seeing the construction industry come back in my neighborhood. The builders are out, I've seen 2 dormant build lots suddenly wake up and new houses are springing up, several a month.

What is goin on?

People are extremely uncomfortable selling at a loss and would rather wait it out.

True, but that has been the case for the last 3 years. What has changed in the last 3 months to trigger the current trend?
I don't know. I've been looking at houses for the last 3 years and the selection has been consistently poor.