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FWjunkie2 said:   
RagingBull said:   wow stocks are dropping like crazy i bought tot at $55 and now losing a ton and rds/a
  I don't know WHEN you bought TOT at $55.  If it was on 10/15/14, the first small horizontal oval on the attached chart, then you bought at the precise right time because you will see the corresponding buy signals on the day-charts of the oscillating indicators below with the red arrows point to buy signals.  Yes, you would have had to watch the stock price action AND the 4-hour charts of the oscillating indicators for the sell signals that occurred at the $59-$60/sh area a quick 3-4 weeks later.  Would have been a nice 9% gain in about 1 month.

But if you bought more recently around 2/5/15, the next small horizontal oval in the chart, then you bought at the precise wrong time because you will see the corresponding day chart oscillating indicator was approaching a sell signal (the 4-hour chart actually did hit a sell signal).  A quick 8.7% loss in about a month... ouch.

NOW the stock price has caused the oscillating indicators to form another buy signal on the day chart of the RSI, and almost on the other IMI indicator.  The  bottomTTM Squeeze indicator has a likely turning point as shown by the red vertical lines turning to yellow now.  Also I like how it is right at a long ago support level as drawn by the long grey horizontal line. By the odds and pattern, this is the WRONG time to sell TOT.  It suggests it's actually pretty close to buy signal (waiting for the IMI to join the other indicators).  

RDS/A has similar buy signals now.

Unfortunately here is the fly in the ointment for the above analysis.  Fundamentals trump all technical (or indicator) signals.  The fundamentals of oil companies is deteriorating.  If you look at the recent EPS of TOT it shows $1.11/sh.  That contrasts to a year ago of $1.475/sh.  See the two red arrows pointing to those data pointson the EPS data row.  .That is a 25% drop in EPS over last year's same quarter.  And upon further observation you'll notice that EVERY QUARTER of the past four quarter was lower than the corresponding year ago quarter.  Ouch.  No one likes lower EPS quarter after quarter compared to year ago.  And the price of oil just keeps going lower.  Double ouch.

If price of oil goes back up, TOT and similar stocks are technically poised to rally.  But they need a catalyst.  Is it worth it to buy now and wait for such catalyst?  Or stand to the side to see if it breaks below the support line?  You could buy here and place a stop-loss limit order a little below the support line.  You could sell naked puts at strike prices lower than currently traded so that you either collect premiums if the stock rises, or you get to purchase the stock at prices lower than currently trading. 

I'm standing to the side because of the FED meeting Wednesday (tomorrow).  Fundamentals trumps technicals but the FED trumps fundamentals!!
Above concepts all stolen from www.optionsforcash.com ... I added a few of my own observations for whatever that is worth.



 

  Raging Bull ,
Hope you held on to your TOT stock.  It is back up to over $54/sh with nice dividend.  Getting close to a sell signal based on that site.  That site is now charging $99 for access of stuff that was free before.  But I liked it so much when it was free that I ponied up the $99 to get access to it for the rest of the year. One trade more than pays for it !

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thanks i will put a sell order on monday

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RagingBull said:   thanks i will put a sell order on monday
  really?  Your gonna make a trade based on someone spamming here?  He might be right or might be wrong, but that is the worst reason ever to make a trade..... SMH

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umcsom said:   
RagingBull said:   thanks i will put a sell order on monday
  really?  Your gonna make a trade based on someone spamming here?  He might be right or might be wrong, but that is the worst reason ever to make a trade..... SMH

 Raging Bull,  umcsom is right.  I should have given you an explanation of my observation.

 Here is the latest chart and indicator signals for TOT that I put together.  As I recall, Raging Bull was considering on selling TOT around 3/18/15 when I posted that the charts and indicator suggest it was actually the time to buy TOT at the then price of around $47/sh.  By luck or not, TOT moved upward from that buy signal and now is testing resistance at about the $55/sh level. But the indicators are also at or near sell signal levels.  Now Raging Bull has to decide if the price will pierce through that resistance or drift back lower (or just drift sideways).  A look at fundamentals shows most recent EPS was $1.08/sh which significantly lower than the year ago quarter of $1.46.  Also the next quarter in July has EPS estimates of about $0,60/sh which is even more severely lower than its year ago quarter of $1.45/sh.  So if the July quarter EPS is about correct, the then most recent 4 trailing quarter EPS total would be about $4.35/sh.  At stock price of $55 that would give a PE of about 12.6 with a negative EPS growth rate.   You may think a PE of 12.6 is not bad.  But if the quarter of Oct is another $0.60/sh then the trailing EPS total drops to $3.39/sh.  If you apply the same PE of 12.6 times the $3.39/sh EPS you get a stock price of about $43/sh.   Who really knows if any of this is already priced into the current stock price or not.  Also, maybe price of oil will continue to climb so that Oct quarter EPS is much better than $0.60/sh.  But that is how I've learned to analyze when to buy and sell stock from that website.   I'll post some of their stock trading ideas here for free (look at my earlier post on ADT). 

image deleted

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umcsom said:   
RagingBull said:   thanks i will put a sell order on monday
  really?  Your gonna make a trade based on someone spamming here?  He might be right or might be wrong, but that is the worst reason ever to make a trade..... SMH

  umcsom,
How do you analyze when to buy and sell a stock?

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FWjunkie2 said:   
umcsom said:   
RagingBull said:   thanks i will put a sell order on monday
  really?  Your gonna make a trade based on someone spamming here?  He might be right or might be wrong, but that is the worst reason ever to make a trade..... SMH

  umcsom,
How do you analyze when to buy and sell a stock?

  
I have a magic 8ball that tells me when to sell. It works great.

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davef139 said:   
FWjunkie2 said:   
umcsom said:   
RagingBull said:   thanks i will put a sell order on monday
  really?  Your gonna make a trade based on someone spamming here?  He might be right or might be wrong, but that is the worst reason ever to make a trade..... SMH

  umcsom,
How do you analyze when to buy and sell a stock?

  
I have a magic 8ball that tells me when to sell. It works great.

  I watch the trending ballinger githers and when they spike off the 2 moon axis in a toe-and-heel chart I know it is time to look at the pythagoras movement of the 20 end of day moving average compared to the 19 beginning of day moving average.  When these two lines intersect for the 5th time in 10 days I check to see what day of the week it is.  If the name doesn't end in a y then I start over.  If the name of the day does end in a "Y" it means it is time to sell.  However if the name of the day's penultimate letter is an "A" it could possibly mean to buy instead of sell.  I find that statistically I have managed to keep up with the markets using this method except for my tax liability and broker fees.
 

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umcsom said:   


RagingBull said:   thanks i will put a sell order on monday
  really?  Your gonna make a trade based on someone spamming here?  He might be right or might be wrong, but that is the worst reason ever to make a trade..... SMH

  umcsom,
How do you analyze when to buy and sell a stock?

 .

  I watch the trending ballinger githers and when they spike off the 2 moon axis in a toe-and-heel chart I know it is time to look at the pythagoras movement of the 20 end of day moving average compared to the 19 beginning of day moving average.  When these two lines intersect for the 5th time in 10 days I check to see what day of the week it is.  If the name doesn't end in a y then I start over.  If the name of the day does end in a "Y" it means it is time to sell.  However if the name of the day's penultimate letter is an "A" it could possibly mean to buy instead of sell.  I find that statistically I have managed to keep up with the markets using this method except for my tax liability and broker fees.

  That says it all.  Umscom, you and I are even:  I have no understanding of your trading tactics and you have no understanding of mine. 

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FWjunkie2 said:   
  That says it all.

  The point is the arbitrary system your website uses is probably just about as valid....[

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Bend3r said:   
FWjunkie2 said:   
  That says it all.

  The point is the arbitrary system your website uses is probably just about as valid....[

  I agree that his system is clearly "arbitrary".  But I will clearly argue that what I learned for my short term trading is not arbitrary at all.  How do you define "arbitrary" anyway?  Is Warren Buffet's system arbitrary? Was Peter Lynch's system arbitrary? Is combining fundamental and technical data "arbitrary"?  If a trading or investing strategy makes money on a consistent basis MORE THAN THE GENERAL MARKET, then that is the system I want to use.   

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FWjunkie2 said:   I just bought ADT at about $37.50. Pays a fair dividend of about 2.2%. But it is showing a buy signal and testing support level. Announced great EPS recently. Stole it from that site.  Since that site now charges $99, which I gladly paid, I'll post some of their trading ideas here for FREE !!  Hope the chart I made is readable and you can see the buy signal that is forming.  Maybe a little lower in next few days.  I put a stop loss order at 7% below my buy price.

EPS recently was $0.67/sh which was better than year ago quarter of $0.49/sh.  That's a EPS grow rate of about 36%!  PE is about half that!!  But the following quarter EPS is estimated to by $0.55/sh which is about the same as year ago quarter;  ie no EPS growth, which is likely weighing on the stock price now. 

I like my odds on this pullback and will get out on a move upward.... that's how I roll.

image deleted

  UPDATE:  It did go lower after I bought it and I added more shares at $36.50... now back up to $37.50...  still waiting for the next two weeks to do something good to the stock price...

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TOT is a buy & hold - pretty much in perpetuity*

*obviously follow for shenanigans, but generally speaking

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which of these look best for very large div yield?

AGNC -  American Capital 11.5-15%, REIT, been steady high div and stock price down
AMTG - Apollo Residential Mort 12%, REIT, steady div, price way down since 2013
DX - Dynex Capital ~12%, REIT, Non-qual
NYMT - NY MORT TRUST 13%+, REIT, STEADY DIVS SINCE 2008, non-qual
ORC - Orchid Island Capital 15% PAID MONTHLY, NON-QUAL, just jumped
CG - The Carlyle Group 11% NOT steady

tempted to buy smaller stakes in all, plus some safer lower yielders (T, SAN, BCS, BNS, GSK, etc). naturally will do more DD in the coming weeks, but just throwing some out there.

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solar -- I think your list looks like the nightmare headline after interest rates go up. That said, I have some AGNC and have it protected with a stop loss at $19. I bought it during the dip in early March ($21.95). It's now at $20.64...

I was tempted to load up on some of these higher yield guys but fortunately a friend knocked some sense into me and I've concentrated more on the consumer non-cyclicals, figuring they would weather a storm better.

I am using the dividends from the CNCs to ease into some health care REITs that have been hammered already -- SNH, OHI and HCP. I have a very long term outlook on this part of my portfolio, so I'm willing to take a bit of a bath (if it comes). We'll see if / how a raise in interest rates balances out against an aging population.

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Anybody know what happened to TGT today?

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SaulHudson said:   Anybody know what happened to TGT today?
  May be look at KSS today?

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debentureboy said:   solar -- I think your list looks like the nightmare headline after interest rates go up. That said, I have some AGNC and have it protected with a stop loss at $19. I bought it during the dip in early March ($21.95). It's now at $20.64...

I was tempted to load up on some of these higher yield guys but fortunately a friend knocked some sense into me and I've concentrated more on the consumer non-cyclicals, figuring they would weather a storm better.

I am using the dividends from the CNCs to ease into some health care REITs that have been hammered already -- SNH, OHI and HCP. I have a very long term outlook on this part of my portfolio, so I'm willing to take a bit of a bath (if it comes). We'll see if / how a raise in interest rates balances out against an aging population.

thanks. I considered rates, but hadn't planned to hold for more than 2-3 quarters or so, as my risk tolerance is high but not that high. is there a large, nearly pure rental REIT? those should weather rising interest rates much better, i'd think.

now reconsidering big yielders, partially to avoid having to time all my sells based on ex-div dates...leaning toward some better growth large-cap stocks with high-ish yields....T, VZ, GSK, GE, APU, BCS, BNS.

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