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GotRocks said:   I live in Cyprus (I moved here 2 and a half years ago) and this action has just cost me about $5500. I am FURIOUS! Thank god I did not exchange my $ for Euros last year when the Euro was about $1.2 (there was lots of talk about Greece leaving the Euro, and where Greece goes, Cyprus soon follows).

The way this is being enacted is pure unadulterated theft. Monday is a holiday here in Cyprus. It was announced this morning (Sat) when all the banks are closed. ATMs are out of service. The crap will hit the fan on Tuesday.

The Cyprus economy is not good and this action is hurting all the British expat pensioners and the middle class Cypriots and me (I don't fall into either of those categories). People will curb their spending even more because the gov just confiscated this money. Unemployment will rise because people will not be spending money. More Brits will pack up and go home and unemployment will rise some more. All this because of Cyprus' exposure to Greek banks.

Don't be surprised when this is enacted in the US (there has been talk). I think a trip to Switzerland is in order shortly.


I would be more than furious. The Cyprus government has nailed the coffin on the Cyprus bank industry. Who in their right mind will deposit a single euro in a Cyprus bank when the government might at any time take a cut with no warning. When the banks reopen people will be lining up take their money out for good. Flights to Switzerland must be booked solid. Is this any way to save the eurozone? Nope.

Basically the problem I have with this is if a country said up front that their deposit insurance only covered 90% of your deposits in the event of a bank going under I think the public just adjusts to that. They become more prudent about where they put their money. In this instance they're making depositors share in the losses even though they had been operating under the assumption that their money was insured. Furthermore, they are applying this to depositors across the board so even if you didn't have your money in a failed institution because you were a prudent depositor you're getting hit with that.


Generally speaking great turmoil happens when people realize that something they've held as sacred and impossible to change(i.e. real estate prices only go up because god isn't creating any more land or the US government would never allow one of it's largest investment banks to fail overnight) no longer is entirely true anymore. Depending upon whether institutional investors in the peripheral Eurozone see this as a qualitative change in the rules of the financial world determines whether or not you see those same institutional investors yank all of their cash from the periphery again or just ignore it as some isolated incident.

Trying to predict the psychology of these players is difficult, but you can easily see how this could cause a watershed moment in the psychology of large European participants. And as SIS said for $6 billion.

HawkeyeNFO said:   BEEFjerKAY said:   ....There's always some marginal country somewhere doing this kind of thing.....It's hardly indicative of any kind of trend....

Not sure what you are trying to say, but if there's always some country doing this, that to me sounds like a trend. Agree that Cyprus is not a huge country or economy itself, but has this occurred in a eurozone country before? That to me is the telling piece of this. That the beneficiary is a central bank (and those who directly profit from that bank) located hundreds of miles away in a different country.


You're 100% right there. If this was some oddball country in Africa with their own worthless currency, it wouldn't be news. But since this is a eurozone country with other eurozone members pushing Cyprus off the cliff, it is. It doesn't give me one bit of confidence in the eurozone. The currency is doomed if this becomes a trend. I'm thinking there may be some sort of behind the scenes second guessing with some of the major euro members if they're still thinking straight. Maybe something will change before the banks reopen.

burgerwars said:   HawkeyeNFO said:   BEEFjerKAY said:   ....There's always some marginal country somewhere doing this kind of thing.....It's hardly indicative of any kind of trend....

Not sure what you are trying to say, but if there's always some country doing this, that to me sounds like a trend. Agree that Cyprus is not a huge country or economy itself, but has this occurred in a eurozone country before? That to me is the telling piece of this. That the beneficiary is a central bank (and those who directly profit from that bank) located hundreds of miles away in a different country.


You're 100% right there. If this was some oddball country in Africa with their own worthless currency, it wouldn't be news. But since this is a eurozone country with other eurozone members pushing Cyprus off the cliff, it is. It doesn't give me one bit of confidence in the eurozone. The currency is doomed if this becomes a trend. I'm thinking there may be some sort of behind the scenes second guessing with some of the major euro members if they're still thinking straight. Maybe something will change before the banks reopen.


Changing their mind now could possibly do more damage. You would then send the signal to investors around the world that they knew they made a huge mistake and therefore likely to make another one real easily.

If this snowballs their is no easy way to rectify this. They're just going to have to once again deal with the problem they kicked down the road sooner.

HawkeyeNFO said:   This is probably a small test run, before it is attempted on a larger scale, perhaps in Italy or Spain. A tax on wealth, which directly benefits the elite. If this goes down peacefully, we'll see it again.

Try this in Spain with its huge unemployment rate and I don't know what will happen, but I sure wouldn't want to be hanging around Madrid if it does.

Wow, this thread is a perfect example of a fear mongering circle jerk. We haven't had one of these in a good while! Everyone getting a ton of red is of course correct - drawing any correlation to this and the US is insane. The good old slippery slope logic fear mongers love to use is a fallacy in this case as the context in which this occurs and the context in which the US banking system operates are as different from night as day. But hey, everyone enjoys a little doom porn right? Don't let the logic interfere, red me to death for bringing it into the conversation and everyone panic and go bury their cash in the backyard before this comes to the US!

SUCKISSTAPLES said:   
They started all this crap to collect $6billion?

I'm going to guess this is going to have a negative impact far exceeding that sum


Yep, that's the only certainty.
It is similar to the measures that are digging Greece into a deeper and deeper whole. Classic example - they decided that they could collect a lot of money by increasing the taxes on the petrol used for central heating. They increased it so much that petrol became almost 2x more expensive this year. The result is that everybody stopped using petrol for central heating and turned to burning wood and using electricity. Obviously they made a lot less money in taxes than last year, but not only did the measure have the opposite effect, it also had some collateral damage - i.e. a new kind of large particle air pollution in Athens due to burning whatever crap anyone could find in the fireplace and also some poor students dying from CO poisoning trying to get warm using coal...
So this levy will have all sorts of side-effects that will certainly cost more than $6 billion and cause who knows what else...

Wonder which country is next ? Spain, Italy ?

Anyone got a clue on the demographics of who keeps money in the banks in cyprus vs owning real estate and other assets not apparently affected by this levy? Likewise, anyone got a clue why they didn't just levy foreign account holders if the point was to go after russian mobsters?

magika said:   Wow, this thread is a perfect example of a fear mongering circle jerk. We haven't had one of these in a good while! Everyone getting a ton of red is of course correct - drawing any correlation to this and the US is insane. The good old slippery slope logic fear mongers love to use is a fallacy in this case as the context in which this occurs and the context in which the US banking system operates are as different from night as day. But hey, everyone enjoys a little doom porn right? Don't let the logic interfere, red me to death for bringing it into the conversation and everyone panic and go bury their cash in the backyard before this comes to the US!
Who here is saying the USA is next ?

I think we understand it for what it is - a stupid move . It's going to have negative effects far exceeding $6 billion

The presidents message said they were given two bad options and chose the lesser of two evils . While that may be true , there were always more than just those two options

magika said:   Wow, this thread is a perfect example of a fear mongering circle jerk.

Between this line and the one about stuff hitting the fan in Argentina, I think the only thing we know for sure is that this whole fiasco was predicted by the Repo Man soundtrack.

dshibb said:   Basically the problem I have with this is if a country said up front that their deposit insurance only covered 90% of your deposits in the event of a bank going under I think the public just adjusts to that. They become more prudent about where they put their money. In this instance they're making depositors share in the losses even though they had been operating under the assumption that their money was insured. Furthermore, they are applying this to depositors across the board so even if you didn't have your money in a failed institution because you were a prudent depositor you're getting hit with that.


This is what makes no sense . If there's some form
Of depositor guarantee in Cyprus I'm sure it had a dollar limit . Instead of taxing all accounts at 6,75% under 100k and 9.9% over 100k, they should have used whatever dollar limit their guarantee covered (let's say it was 100k ) and just applied the levy to balances over that amount. Say 14% on amounts over 100k

That would have pacified the general public that their 100k guarantee kicked in and protected them

Time to keep your savings under the mattress!

magika said:   Wow, this thread is a perfect example of a fear mongering circle jerk. We haven't had one of these in a good while! Everyone getting a ton of red is of course correct - drawing any correlation to this and the US is insane. The good old slippery slope logic fear mongers love to use is a fallacy in this case as the context in which this occurs and the context in which the US banking system operates are as different from night as day. But hey, everyone enjoys a little doom porn right? Don't let the logic interfere, red me to death for bringing it into the conversation and everyone panic and go bury their cash in the backyard before this comes to the US!

Why is it that you also automatically assume that the posting and talking about this is only because people want to fear monger about what could happen in the US. Has it entered your mind that some of this are only paying attention to this from the perspective of the Eurozone?

Nobody(on an even keel) on here is talking about pulling money out of US deposit institutions because of this. But if I lived in Spain right now you better believe that I'm currently transferring my cash out of my Spanish bank account to maybe one in Germany or Austria or potentially out of Euro's. It's a cost less transaction for me to do this and even the very tiny chance isn't worth it when I can basically get the same interest anywhere. If I cared about the extra few basis pts I would probably move into Ireland.

And if I would be doing that this weekend just think about how many Spanish companies are thinking that this weekend. "Hmm, it doesn't cost me anything to move my deposits to Germany. The risk is very, very low but why take the chance when it's practically free to avoid it?"

Where's the problem in this logic and where is the 'fear mongering' in this?

SUCKISSTAPLES said:   dshibb said:   Basically the problem I have with this is if a country said up front that their deposit insurance only covered 90% of your deposits in the event of a bank going under I think the public just adjusts to that. They become more prudent about where they put their money. In this instance they're making depositors share in the losses even though they had been operating under the assumption that their money was insured. Furthermore, they are applying this to depositors across the board so even if you didn't have your money in a failed institution because you were a prudent depositor you're getting hit with that.


This is what makes no sense . If there's some form
Of depositor guarantee in Cyprus I'm sure it had a dollar limit . Instead of taxing all accounts at 6,75% under 100k and 9.9% over 100k, they should have used whatever dollar limit their guarantee covered (let's say it was 100k ) and just applied the levy to balances over that amount. Say 14% on amounts over 100k

That would have pacified the general public that their 100k guarantee kicked in and protected them


Keep in mind that most wealthy depositors spread their assets around to stay under the insured limits. It's quite possible that 80%+ of that revenue came from balances under $100k. It might have required something like 50% or even 75% of balances over $100k to produce the same number.

Furthermore, that may have pacified the general public in Cyprus, but it would have completely freaked out the institutional depositors throughout the entire peripheral Eurozone and come next week you would be hard pressed to find many accounts at all over the insured limits in the entire peripheral Eurozone.

GotRocks said:   President (of Cyprus) speaks of state of emergency Cyprus is facing

This is an article from a local paper here in Cyprus. Note that this man has only been president for 15 days. The previous president, a communist, did not run for re-election.

We've had the following actions in Cyprus in the past 3-4 months:

VAT increased from 17%to 18% (that followed a previous VAT increase from 15% to 17% about a year ago)
0.03 Euro per liter increase in gasoline taxes

Cyprus unemployment is already high. This year we have had record numbers of families unable to feed themselves or pay their exorbitant electric bills.

There is a large British expat population here, mostly retirees, who have moved their life savings here or at least a good portion of it. The British have been leaving over the past 2 years because the pound to Euro exchange rate is not as favorable as it was in the past. This is going to drive more of them back to the UK.

This whole thing is a huge disaster. And this action, whether stated so or not, was because of the huge amount of Russian money here in Cypriot banks.

The bank I use is not one of the two banks (Bank of Cyprus and Laiki Bank) that are going under. Now I will have shares in these two banks (not sure how I will deal with that as I wonder if I can technically even own these shares as a non-EU citizen.


You know I have to respect a new president that thinks highly enough of his own populations intelligence to explain precisely what would have happened step by step if he didn't take the deal.

It looks like you've got a new smart president over there in Cyprus. His hand was forced, but reading that article I quickly started to like him.

Evidence? Who's talking? You to yourself? gesh. You know there is about 6.7045 trillion in deposits in the usa?GotRocks said:    Don't be surprised when this is enacted in the US (there has been talk).

Read what would have happened if they didn't do this:

"Choosing the catastrophic scenario would have led to the following:

1. On Tuesday, 19 March, following the three-day holiday, one of the two banks which is going through the crisis, would have had to close, since the European Central Bank, had already decided to stop providing on that day any liquidity to the bank. The second bank would have had to suspend its operation and it would have not been able to avoid a default. Such phenomenon would have immediately put eight thousand families out of work.

2. The state would have had to compensate depositors, as it had to meet its obligations against guaranteed deposits. The capital needed in such a case would have reached around 30 billion euro, an amount which would have been impossible to pay.

3. A similar amount, which corresponds to the deposits of thousands of depositors for deposits over 100 thousand euro, would have led to a vicious circle of clearing depositors properties, leading to losses of more than 60%.

4. Such an uncontrollable situation would have led to the collapse of the whole banking system with the subsequent fallout.

5. Thousands of small to medium sized businesses but also other businesses would have been driven to bankruptcy due to their inability to meet their commercial transactions.

“As a result of all these”, the President said, the services sector would have been collapsed completely, leading to a possible exit from the Eurozone. This, apart from nationally weakening Cyprus, would have led to the devaluation of the Cypriot currency by 40%."



http://famagusta-gazette.com/president-speaks-of-state-of-emerge...

SUCKISSTAPLES said:   magika said:   Wow, this thread is a perfect example of a fear mongering circle jerk. We haven't had one of these in a good while! Everyone getting a ton of red is of course correct - drawing any correlation to this and the US is insane. The good old slippery slope logic fear mongers love to use is a fallacy in this case as the context in which this occurs and the context in which the US banking system operates are as different from night as day. But hey, everyone enjoys a little doom porn right? Don't let the logic interfere, red me to death for bringing it into the conversation and everyone panic and go bury their cash in the backyard before this comes to the US!
Who here is saying the USA is next ?

I think we understand it for what it is - a stupid move . It's going to have negative effects far exceeding $6 billion

The presidents message said they were given two bad options and chose the lesser of two evils . While that may be true , there were always more than just those two options


The key difference is that the USA can print more money. No need to take it directly from the people. The effect of "taking wealth from the collective citizens" is gradual and presumably less painful because it occurs via inflation. Cyprus didn't have that option.

Argyll said:   Read what would have happened if they didn't do this:

"Choosing the catastrophic scenario would have led to the following:

1. On Tuesday, 19 March, following the three-day holiday, one of the two banks which is going through the crisis, would have had to close, since the European Central Bank, had already decided to stop providing on that day any liquidity to the bank. The second bank would have had to suspend its operation and it would have not been able to avoid a default. Such phenomenon would have immediately put eight thousand families out of work.

2. The state would have had to compensate depositors, as it had to meet its obligations against guaranteed deposits. The capital needed in such a case would have reached around 30 billion euro, an amount which would have been impossible to pay.

3. A similar amount, which corresponds to the deposits of thousands of depositors for deposits over 100 thousand euro, would have led to a vicious circle of clearing depositors properties, leading to losses of more than 60%.

4. Such an uncontrollable situation would have led to the collapse of the whole banking system with the subsequent fallout.

5. Thousands of small to medium sized businesses but also other businesses would have been driven to bankruptcy due to their inability to meet their commercial transactions.

“As a result of all these”, the President said, the services sector would have been collapsed completely, leading to a possible exit from the Eurozone. This, apart from nationally weakening Cyprus, would have led to the devaluation of the Cypriot currency by 40%."



http://famagusta-gazette.com/president-speaks-of-state-of-emerge...


Yeah I know that was what I was referring to when I said you've got to respect a guy that just comes out and says what will happen step by step. Probably wont stop certain Cypiots from blaming him for it though.


What is also interesting about this answer that most people are overlooking is this:
Cyprus President said: since the European Central Bank, had already decided to stop providing on that day any liquidity to the bank.

Wait I thought that through LTRO and constant ECB liquidity this was no longer a problem? That is what all those financial pundits told me! What they neglected to tell you was that the ECB only provides liquidity in exchange for unencumbered 'pristine collateral' which according to the ECB can apparently include Italian, Portuguese, Cyprus, or even Greek sovereign debt. What is actually quite amazing is that the bank goes out and acquires the debt at a discount to par and then hands it over to the ECB in exchange for cash at par. So the ECB is providing more cash in the repo than what the bond is worth. Eventually the repo ends and the bank has to cough up the cash they got plus interest and they get their $hitty 'pristine collateral' back in which case they just turn around and do it again. The problem is that as bank liquidity needs increased more and more of this $hitty sovereign debt ended up at the ECB on repo leaving less supply of it. And as the sovereign bond position of these countries improved over the last year the cost to acquire these $hitty bonds to magically repo into more cash increased along with it. So the very thing that was pulling the sovereigns out of the mess lower bond yields was simultaneously making bank liquidity worse.

Once a bank has no more 'pristine collateral' left to hand over to the ECB for Euro's, the ECB cuts them off and the bank will fail.

This also means that over the last year most peripheral banks have had their situations continue to deteriorate and when this snaps back to reality the ECB will be in an even tougher spot because many of these banks will not have worth collateral to trade for liquidity because most of that collateral is already at the ECB. Whoooops!



If you don't believe that the issue of 'pristine collateral' is at the heart of the issue let's take a look at the ECB's own press releases on their website:

ECB Press Release said:
19 December 2012 - ECB announces change in eligibility of debt instruments issued or guaranteed by the Greek government

Marketable debt instruments issued or fully guaranteed by the Hellenic Republic and fulfilling all other eligibility criteria shall again constitute eligible collateral for the purposes of Eurosystem credit operations, subject to special haircuts. This is the consequence of the decision of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) to suspend the application of the minimum credit rating threshold in the collateral eligibility requirements for the purposes of the Eurosystem’s credit operations in the case of marketable debt instruments issued or guaranteed by the Greek government. This suspension will be maintained until further notice.

In this decision the Governing Council has taken into consideration the positive assessment by the European Commission, the ECB and the International Monetary Fund of the policy package for the first review under the Second Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece and the wide range of measures already implemented by the Greek government in the areas of fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, privatisation and financial sector stabilisation.

The suspension applies to all outstanding and new marketable debt instruments issued or guaranteed by the Greek government and will come into force with the relevant legal act on 
21 December 2012. The haircuts applied to these assets will be specified in the legal act.


^^^And that is normal(rolls eyes)! We're going to allow defaulted debt from a country who has a huge amount debt to gdp and growing fast to be used as 'pristine collateral'? Yes they went there!

This is the kind of thing that creates a global panic.

mistycoupon said:   This is the kind of thing that creates a global panic.

More like the thing that causes a thing that causes a thing that causes a global panic.

A lot of if's in there, but conceivably possible.

this has been happening in US for years, albeit slowly.

burgerwars said:   Suddenly stuffing all your money in a mattress, or burying it in the backyard, is the safest investment.
Russia had a solution to this in the 90's - they just added three zeros onto the money and let you exchange only a certain amount. They promised to do the same later for anything in the banks.

Took them 15+ years, but they did finally come thru on that promise...

What wasn't exchanged was worth 1/1000 of what it was previously...

This wasn't just Russians hiding money. Cyprus has been a money conduit for Iran and Syria and Hezbollah for years. Even some Israeli arms dealers have been burned apparently. The little people got burned as well but I suspect if this follows to form a lot of illicit money that had been in the Cypriot banks will move and be grabbed when it does.

I should also point out that that easily nothing could come of this. You would think that having a hung parliament in Italy with the highest vote getter a person who is now actively saying that Italy should leave the Euro would have a bigger affect than it's having. Granted since then it's caused Italian sovereign bond yields to move up a decent amount, but the rest of Europe has mostly been moving along like it's no problem.

And you should watch this guy, Grillo. I would describe his political talent as a combination of George Carlin mixed with some Hitleresque theotrics(i.e. not in terms of ideas, but presenting style). In a country whose economy is ravaged he's exactly the type of guy you would bet on to have a bright political future ahead of him especially against a retarded socialist party and a now convicted felon who was thrown out of parliament only a year ago. If Italy has to vote again it's quiet likely his percentage is only going to increase. I mean his 2 biggest rally days(called V-days) attracted millions of people all over the country in every major city and he attracts crowds in front of him well into the 10s of thousands.

And yet with this guy sucking up all the air in Italy about leaving the Euro we have 10 up days in the markets in a row. I'm not saying that having a powerful Italian politician talking about leaving the Euro should cause a crash in US equities(far from it), but I have to wonder whether 10 up days in a row is necessarily the right response to a serious threat of the Euro crisis returning in one of our largest trading partners, the EU. And especially indexes like the CAC 40 in France moving higher that is just nonsensical to me.

So maybe investors will just ignore this Cyprus action as well. I guess we'll see wont we?

Just some food for thought.

dshibb said:   I mean his 2 biggest rally days(called V-days) attracted millions of peoplevaffanculo Days
Since V-Day participants collected 350,000 signatures to oust 24 Italian Parliamentarians who are convicted felons, he would probably never choose to run for office. But his 5-Star movement is becoming very powerful

dshibb said:   I seriously think that they're going to rue the day they decided to do this. It's not just that this happened in Cyprus. It's that the very same people who demanded it in Cyprus are the same people who can demand it on Greece, Italy, Portugal, or Spain. If you're a depositor in any of those countries who came back to capture a slightly higher yield in Greece than in Germany, I don't see how you take a look at something like and ask yourself whether it's worth maybe 25 basis pts a year to not only have your money in a country that could at some point in the future leave the Euro, but one that could be forced by the very same people to impose a tax on my deposits. If deposit flight re enters the Eurozone you're right back into the crisis once again.

The truth is that I think these people got cocky. They thought they had beaten this thing and no longer had to take as serious steps to protect their banking system. While likely no where near the amplitude this could have been the Eurozone's Lehman moment that starts a bunch more bank runs.


Now I'm of the mindset that this kicking the can down the road is only making matters worse so anything that results in them finally being forced to decide fiscal union(not going to happen) or a couple countries exiting the Euro I think is a good thing, but that isn't what they wanted so yeah I could see this being the spark that sets off another chain reaction. It's hard to say because it requires predicting the qualitative mindset of participants and what is enough of a shock to cause them to run, but I wouldn't be surprised if this is it.


In other words, let the mattress stuffing begin.

I think there are a few things going on:

1. It is obvious that every down turn in the market since 2009 has been a buying opportunity. The bigger, the better,
2. It is obvious that the US economy is improving, slowly but steadily,
3. People forget,
4. A lot of people got out of stocks, and they are looking back at 100% returns over the past 4 years, and they are regretting. Nothing like missing the very obvious boat,
5. There is literally nowhere to put money,
6. Somehow, when bad things linger for a long time, and worse things don't happen, people discount bad things.

So if you add 1-6, I think the net effect is that US markets will generally shruff off the Cyprus news.

However, the same can not be said about Cyprus. In the worse case, I can see the banking system in Cyprus collapse in a matter of weeks.

Half of the deposit money is held by foreigners. They are done. Whether or not Cyprus will have such a thing in the next 1000 years does not matter. They will slowly pull their money out.

The other half is held by middle-class in Cyprus. And middle class can be irrational when faced with a knife. If the collective intelligence of the middle class decides that pulling their money from the banking system is a good idea, it is quite possible that the banking system in Cyprus will simply collapse. Then the eurozone has to double-bail-out.

Suddenly stuffing all your money in a mattress, or burying it in the backyard, is the safest investment.
Don't bury money in the ground. It will petrify in a few months.

tolamapS said:   dshibb said:   I seriously think that they're going to rue the day they decided to do this. It's not just that this happened in Cyprus. It's that the very same people who demanded it in Cyprus are the same people who can demand it on Greece, Italy, Portugal, or Spain. If you're a depositor in any of those countries who came back to capture a slightly higher yield in Greece than in Germany, I don't see how you take a look at something like and ask yourself whether it's worth maybe 25 basis pts a year to not only have your money in a country that could at some point in the future leave the Euro, but one that could be forced by the very same people to impose a tax on my deposits. If deposit flight re enters the Eurozone you're right back into the crisis once again.

The truth is that I think these people got cocky. They thought they had beaten this thing and no longer had to take as serious steps to protect their banking system. While likely no where near the amplitude this could have been the Eurozone's Lehman moment that starts a bunch more bank runs.


Now I'm of the mindset that this kicking the can down the road is only making matters worse so anything that results in them finally being forced to decide fiscal union(not going to happen) or a couple countries exiting the Euro I think is a good thing, but that isn't what they wanted so yeah I could see this being the spark that sets off another chain reaction. It's hard to say because it requires predicting the qualitative mindset of participants and what is enough of a shock to cause them to run, but I wouldn't be surprised if this is it.


In other words, let the mattress stuffing begin.


No need. If you live in PIGS then just send the cash to a different country and you'll deposit rate will likely drop from what is maybe 1.5% to maybe 1.25% on the same currency(so no currency risk). That isn't a big penalty. And Ireland is likely fine in which case you can send it there and still get the 1.5% if you want.

tolamapS said:   I think there are a few things going on:

1. It is obvious that every down turn in the market since 2009 has been a buying opportunity. The bigger, the better,
2. It is obvious that the US economy is improving, slowly but steadily,
3. People forget,
4. A lot of people got out of stocks, and they are looking back at 100% returns over the past 4 years, and they are regretting. Nothing like missing the very obvious boat,
5. There is literally nowhere to put money,
6. Somehow, when bad things linger for a long time, and worse things don't happen, people discount bad things.

So if you add 1-6, I think the net effect is that US markets will generally shruff off the Cyprus news.

However, the same can not be said about Cyprus. In the worse case, I can see the banking system in Cyprus collapse in a matter of weeks.

Half of the deposit money is held by foreigners. They are done. Whether or not Cyprus will have such a thing in the next 1000 years does not matter. They will slowly pull their money out.

The other half is held by middle-class in Cyprus. And middle class can be irrational when faced with a knife. If the collective intelligence of the middle class decides that pulling their money from the banking system is a good idea, it is quite possible that the banking system in Cyprus will simply collapse. Then the eurozone has to double-bail-out.



Agree with everything you said!

Alcibiades said:   dshibb said:   I mean his 2 biggest rally days(called V-days) attracted millions of peoplevaffanculo Days
Since V-Day participants collected 350,000 signatures to oust 24 Italian Parliamentarians who are convicted felons, he would probably never choose to run for office. But his 5-Star movement is becoming very powerful


He has actually talked about throwing his hat in the ring if ever came to it even given the drunk driving issues.

holy cow ... i passed over this article this morning. i've been in the Europe -> WW3 skeptic camp for some time. (unlike others such as Kyle Bass.) but this is quite shocking. why not just inflate out? if they try this in Greece, Italy, or Spain there will be war overnight. is this why DHS is buying 5 bullets for every man, woman, and child in America? anyone who has been remotely paying attention over the past few months has to be wondering why TPTB are moving so quickly ...


edit: apparently Germany wanted 40%. I guess we know they're not exactly scared of their European neighbors ...

SUCKISSTAPLES said:   
Who here is saying the USA is next ?

Really SIS? And this is just the first page...

stormdog123 said:   
I hope this is not the beginning of a trend.


burgerwars said:   Suddenly stuffing all your money in a mattress, or burying it in the backyard, is the safest investment.

snork615 said:   US regime can use this social experiment as a test of plans to tax the "rich".

The OP in and of itself has some merit and could have turned into a non-paranoid discussion. But as always FWF has turned into a fear mongering circle jerk. I see maybe a total of 3 people discussing this with any level of sanity. The rest of the thread is in hysterics about jewish bankers and redding me and anyone else who points out the fear mongering.

This thread is no different than the 100 dozen we had between 2008 and 2011 that the world was going to end any day now and economic collapse was right around the corner because of <insert minor news or economic event here>. The practical impact of this news is zero - unimportant (in the context of the globalized economy) countries enact bizarre policies all the time.

motuwallet said:   holy cow ... i passed over this article this morning. i've been in the Europe -> WW3 skeptic camp for some time. (unlike others such as Kyle Bass.) but this is quite shocking. why not just inflate out? if they try this in Greece, Italy, or Spain there will be war overnight. is this why DHS is buying 5 bullets for every man, woman, and child in America? anyone who has been remotely paying attention over the past few months has to be wondering why TPTB are moving so quickly ...


edit: apparently Germany wanted 40%. I guess we know they're not exactly scared of their European neighbors ...


Bass is only pointing out that times in the past that had countries facing these kinds of debt risks always resulted in war. He isn't very confident in that prediction at all because we do live in a very different era.

This isn't 1700's Europe nor is it the late 1930s. There is only so much you can rely upon that history hence why he's very coy about that particular prediction.


walt and skylar
Disclaimer
codename47 said:   Suddenly stuffing all your money in a mattress, or burying it in the backyard, is the safest investment.
Don't bury money in the ground. It will petrify in a few months.

Storage locker, Breaking Bad style. Don't forget to spray for silverfish.

motuwallet said:    if they try this in Greece, Italy, or Spain there will be war overnight. is this why DHS is buying 5 bullets for every man, woman, and child in America? anyone who has been remotely paying attention over the past few months has to be wondering why TPTB are moving so quickly ...

Why is it every time a federal agency buys ammo for its agents (who have a perfectly valid use for it in target practice, which they must conduct to meet training requirements), this comes up? Its the same argument every 6 months - as it was six months ago when the Social Security Administration bought ammo for its law enforcement agents. By the way, I can use google and go back to 2005 and every time the DHS or another federal agency buys ammo, the "OMG WW3" doom nuts come out of the woodwork. Could it just be perfectly normal agency operations?

Cyprus has discovered large offshore natural gas deposits and they may also serve as a hub for Israeli natural gas exports. However, it's going to take some years before this is ready for export. They hope to be exporting by 2018.

Magika

So I guess we just stop posting all negative news then?

Should the mods start removing any piece of information that anybody could come on here and say "Oh now" about?



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