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Voting History
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Probably if this could affect you, you already know about it!  

However, I never hear anything about this topic in the US
(but I do not watch much American television, so that obviously limits my exposure), 
and therefore I thought I'd just mention to FWF folks that Scotland is voting in 2 weeks on whether that country will leave the United Kingdom or not,
and it's a pretty major decision for them (and for the entire UK).

Although many analysts/bookies/etc. have thought up to now that there is not much chance that the "Yes - Scotland should leave the UK" side could win, I've always had a gut feeling that the vote might be pretty close to 50/50.

Last month, I held off on changing some dollars into pounds because I expected the pound to decline against the dollar in the first part of September, and it has now done so.  (This will be an interesting month, especially if the "Yes" campaign wins!)

Today a reputable poll (YouGov) showed that the "Yes" vote is now at 47%, with 2 weeks to go before voting day:

"Pound slides after latest Scottish independence poll
Currency markets get the jitters after poll shows support for yes vote has risen to 47% with referendum just over fortnight away"
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/sep/02/pound-slides-scottish-independence-poll-yes-vote-referendum 
theguardian.com, Tuesday 2 September 2014 08.26 EDT

-----
A little background:

"The UK consists of four countries : EnglandScotlandWales and Northern Ireland. "
"The relationships among the countries of the United Kingdom have changed over time
The Principality of Wales was incorporated into the Kingdom of England in 1536.
In 1707, the kingdoms of Scotland and England were united to form the Kingdom of Great Britain, which in 1801, united with the Kingdom of Ireland to form the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland
In 1922, five-sixths of Ireland seceded from the UK, leaving the present formulation of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland." 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom 

"A national referendum is scheduled to be held in Scotland on 18 September 2014. Voters will be asked to answer Yes or No to the question: 'Should Scotland be an independent country?' "
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence 
 

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Difference is that there are people still alive who remember the Spanish Civil War and the catastrophic suppression of C... (more)

Crazytree (Sep. 20, 2014 @ 3:58a) |

That's one measure of closeness.  But another measure of closeness is the statistical significance.  

Polls usually ask a... (more)

tolamapS (Sep. 20, 2014 @ 9:37a) |

Its not a landslide since they aren't electing representatives. It shows that the nationalists are widespread and not j... (more)

RedWolfe01 (Sep. 24, 2014 @ 11:50p) |

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Still not likely when you look at "the poll of polls," but we'll see in two weeks.

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TY, OP. I learned several new things from your post.

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From The Guardian (4/1/2014):  

Scotland to switch to driving on the right if independence given green light

To ease the transition, Scottish transport planners, under strict conditions of secrecy, have begun drawing up plans for a series of spiral interchanges at the major border transport nodes. These will transition drivers to the correct side of the road – whether travelling south–north or north-south – and avoid cross-border crashes – "a PR disaster worse than horsemeat in haggis", according to one planner.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/01/scotland-driving...

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tuphat said:   From The Guardian (4/1/2014):  

Scotland to switch to driving on the right if independence given green light

To ease the transition, Scottish transport planners, under strict conditions of secrecy, have begun drawing up plans for a series of spiral interchanges at the major border transport nodes. These will transition drivers to the correct side of the road – whether travelling south–north or north-south – and avoid cross-border crashes – "a PR disaster worse than horsemeat in haggis", according to one planner.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/01/scotland-driving...

  A bit late to the Aprils 1st joke....

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tuphat said:   From The Guardian (4/1/2014):  

Scotland to switch to driving on the right if independence given green light

To ease the transition, Scottish transport planners, under strict conditions of secrecy, have begun drawing up plans for a series of spiral interchanges at the major border transport nodes. These will transition drivers to the correct side of the road – whether travelling south–north or north-south – and avoid cross-border crashes – "a PR disaster worse than horsemeat in haggis", according to one planner.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/01/scotland-driving...

  If it wasn't so hard to actually implement, I bet there would actually be many Scottish who would like the idea. But sanity and self-preservation will probably prevail and they will vote "No". I mean, their pro-independence party is saying that using the GBP and being in the EU is certain for an independent Scotland, and I guess despite what the UK and the EU are saying now (that it is definitely not certain and not even likely) they might actually agree to something like that if it ever came to it, but will the Scottish public really take that chance? Doubtful.
I was actually trying out an unofficial poll when I visited Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen a year and a half ago, mainly among the cab drivers who are traditionally the most chatty. They seemed to mostly be amused by the notion of a "Yes to independence" result, so at least last year they did not seem to believe it was realistic. Haven't been there more recently though

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Ecuadorgr said:   
tuphat said:   From The Guardian (4/1/2014):  

Scotland to switch to driving on the right if independence given green light

To ease the transition, Scottish transport planners, under strict conditions of secrecy, have begun drawing up plans for a series of spiral interchanges at the major border transport nodes. These will transition drivers to the correct side of the road – whether travelling south–north or north-south – and avoid cross-border crashes – "a PR disaster worse than horsemeat in haggis", according to one planner.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/01/scotland-driving...

  If it wasn't so hard to actually implement, I bet there would actually be many Scottish who would like the idea. But sanity and self-preservation will probably prevail and they will vote "No". I mean, their pro-independence party is saying that using the GBP and being in the EU is certain for an independent Scotland, and I guess despite what the UK and the EU are saying now (that it is definitely not certain and not even likely) they might actually agree to something like that if it ever came to it, but will the Scottish public really take that chance? Doubtful.
I was actually trying out an unofficial poll when I visited Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen a year and a half ago, mainly among the cab drivers who are traditionally the most chatty. They seemed to mostly be amused by the notion of a "Yes to independence" result, so at least last year they did not seem to believe it was realistic. Haven't been there more recently though

 Yeah, that's my take on it too.  Its one thing to tout how great it would be to be independent and another when you are standing in a poll booth all alone and thinking about the economic turmoil.

UK has already said it would not enter economic union with an independent Scotland.  UK and France are the main "powers" in the EU, so it would  follow that they would have to "apply" on the same standing as any other small country trying to join the EU.  Which means they would have to develop their own interim currency.  IMO as soon as EU/UK made those announcements they killed the movement.  (UK politicos know where their bread is buttered just as well as the ones in the US -- and a lot of money from the Scot oilfields flows down to the South of England)    The idea of political freedom without having to pay for it or at least having a strong economic grounding was tempting as heck.  Not realistic though.  Mind you that Scotland would still be a Commonwealth country, so they would have the same travel rights.  Their ceremonial head of state would still be the same Queen.   

Although if they DO go independent I predict they will end up in EU within a few years.  For the same reason that Greece is still welcome in EU -- everyone else in Europe prefers their bills/debt payments in Euros or Pounds Sterling.   They aren't getting a fre pass though.

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New on Sept. 6:  "Shock new poll says Scots set to vote yes to independence
'No' campaign to offer radical deal as latest figures show 51-49% backing for end of the union"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/06/scots-radical-ne... 

===
"Scottish independence: everything you need to know for the referendum"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/06/scottish-independence-everything-you-need-to-know-referendum 

===
"Scottish referendum: this is the hardest campaign I have ever had to call
Andrew Rawnsley reports from Edinburgh on the momentous political challenge that faces the UK, whatever the result"

"It is at the heart of nationalist strategy to project independence as an idea whose time has come, a historical inevitability that can no longer be resisted.The recent poll surges in their favour give them momentum, a precious commodity in the final furlong. If voting for independence is a leap of faith, a gathering sense that sentiment is swinging that way has the potential to be a self-fulfilling prophecy by emboldening more Scots to make the leap.

Shivers of fear are now running up the spines of the UK-wide parties as they wake up to the possibility that the secession of Scotland could be under way in less than a fortnight."  

"Whatever the result, it won't be easy for anyone to plausibly claim that the outcome represents a settled consensus of Scottish public opinion. Scotland will have spoken, but she will not speak with an unequivocal voice. Which is why you hear Scottish civic leaders expressing foreboding that it will be hard for wounds to heal and for the losing side to swallow defeat."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/scottish-referendum-hardest-campaign-to-call-andrew-rawnsley 

===
"Debate has intoxicated Scotland. People have seen the chance to seize power
The independence referendum has stopped being about nationalism and started being about democracy – and finally the rest of the UK is taking notice"

"The assumption has always been that Scotland will say no to independence. Now, that assumption looks complacent. Now, Westminster is in a panic."
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/05/independence-referendum-debate-intoxicated-scotland 

===
"We have 10 days to find a settlement to save the union
There is only one way now to stop the independence bandwagon. Westminster's party leaders must offer a fully federal Britain that would benefit everyone"

"Without imaginative and creative statecraft, the polls now suggest Scotland could secede from a 300-year union, sundering genuine bonds of love, splitting families and wrenching all the interconnectedness forged from our shared history.

Absurdly, there will be two countries on the same small island that have so much in common. If Britain can't find a way of sticking together, it is the death of the liberal enlightenment before the atavistic forces of nationalism and ethnicity – a dark omen for the 21st century. Britain will cease as an idea. We will all be diminished."

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/06/will-hutton-10-days-to-save-the-union-scottish-independence 
 

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The English and Spanish have a deal where they will respectively veto Scotland and Catalonia's respective bids to join the EU.

That should temper expectations a bit.

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NantucketSunrise said:   
Currency markets get the jitters after poll shows support for yes vote has risen to 47% with referendum just over fortnight away"

 

  whats a fortnight?  four nights?  forty nights?  and why are they holding the referrendum during the night time, when people are sleeping?  will there be a sequel to braveheart?  all this leaves more questions than answers.
and someone mentioned caledonia?  what does duck soup have to do with this?

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If the Scots vote to maintain the union I hope FIFA uses this as a excuse to force the UK to have a unified football team.

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Crazytree said:   The English and Spanish have a deal where they will respectively veto Scotland and Catalonia's respective bids to join the EU.

That should temper expectations a bit.

  
Not really. People voting yes aren't doing it based on economic reasons.

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The voting age is 16 in the referendum. Will the youth vote put it over the top in youthful idealism?

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UK is offering Scotland greater autonomy if they vote no:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/scotland-powers-...

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newnorley said:   
Crazytree said:   The English and Spanish have a deal where they will respectively veto Scotland and Catalonia's respective bids to join the EU.

That should temper expectations a bit.

  
Not really. People voting yes aren't doing it based on economic reasons.

  I'd explain the larger, long-term process to you, but it would be a waste of time.

Additionally, your comment is just plain absurd given Scotland's independent-minded economic policies and the fact that Catalonia has, for a century, been the economic powerhouse of Spain.

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Just as an FYI, this is a really informative video that explains the remains of empire.
The Difference between the United Kingdom, Great Britain and England Explained

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jayK said:   UK is offering Scotland greater autonomy if they vote no:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/scotland-powers-...

  The English gave the Scots the Stone of Scone back, but England has nowhere to put their nuke subs if Scotland secedes imminently... ergo, this is not going to happen anytime soon.

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rooms222 said:   The voting age is 16 in the referendum. Will the youth vote put it over the top in youthful idealism?
According to the following article, it seems that plenty of people in other age groups are also in favor of separating --

"Even if it is a close no, Scotland will be gone within a decade unless there is dramatic change: only the over-65s firmly oppose independence.
The old order is dead, whatever happens.
A new federal constitutional order – with sweeping devolution to the English regions and Wales, and to Scotland if it remains – must be built."
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/07/scotland-decides-union-tories 
 

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jayK said:   UK is offering Scotland greater autonomy if they vote no:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/scotland-powers-...

Apparently something like that worked in Quebec in 1995...

"The [UK] chancellor detailed the plans – the product of backroom talks – saying they would be unveiled in the next few days with a clear timetable for implementation in the event of a no vote.
The offer is similar to the last-minute package offered to Quebec by the Canadian government in 1995, that staved off a vote for separation."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/scotland-powers-george-osborne-support-parties 

"At the beginning of the 1995 campaign in Canada, the no side opposing sovereignty for the province of mostly French-speaking Québec had a big lead in the polls.
But just as now appears in Scotland, the yes side had the momentum in the final weeks of the campaign. 
Ultimately, after an emotional and controversial campaign, the no vote won with a razor-thin majority of 50.58% to 49.42%."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/scottish-independence-tactics-quebec 

====
This is a good article from today's NYT:
"As Polls Tighten, Britain Promises Scots More Self-Rule if They Reject Independence"
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/world/europe/britain-promises-scotland-more-self-rule-if-it-rejects-independence.html?action=click&contentCollection=Europe®ion=Footer&module=MoreInSection&pgtype=article 

"On Sunday, Mr. Osborne, a close ally of Mr. Cameron’s, responded to the tightening race by promising more powers to Scotland if it votes no. 
...That position is sometimes known as “devo max,” or maximum devolution, an alternative that Mr. Cameron did not allow Mr. Salmond to put on the ballot. Instead, Mr. Cameron insisted on a simple yes or no vote for independence.  In return, he allowed Mr. Salmond, Scotland’s first minister, to extend the vote to people ages 16 and over but limit it to those who are registered in Scotland, which excludes many Scots living and working elsewhere in Britain. 
Mr. Salmond dismissed Mr. Osborne’s proposals on Sunday as “a panic measure.”

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Crazytree said:   
jayK said:   UK is offering Scotland greater autonomy if they vote no:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/scotland-powers-...

  The English gave the Scots the Stone of Scone back, but England has nowhere to put their nuke subs if Scotland secedes imminently... ergo, this is not going to happen anytime soon.

"The SNP says Trident, currently housed at the Faslane naval base, should be removed from an independent Scotland by 2020 as part of its plans for a constitutional prohibition on nuclear weapons being sited in the country.

Faslane would become the base for the Scottish navy, which would allow for many of the 6,500 jobs there to be maintained.

The precise future of Trident, however, is bound to be one of the most keenly contested issues in negotiations that would follow a yes vote.

Although the SNP would have a mandate to banish it from its shores, there are arguments about the feasibility and cost of moving it to another UK location within the four-year time frame envisaged. Negotiations over who would pay for it to be moved would also be difficult."

from "Scottish independence: a guide to the big decision"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/06/scottish-independence-everything-you-need-to-know-referendum  

====
"If Scotland votes to leave the United Kingdom, independence will not occur before March 2016, leaving lots of time for bitter negotiations that will further preoccupy a Britain that is questioning even its own membership in the European Union and its place in the world." 
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/world/europe/britain-promises-scotland-more-self-rule-if-it-rejects-independence.html?action=click&contentCollection=Europe®ion=Footer&module=MoreInSection&pgtype=article 

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"With only 10 days to go, the rest of Britain finally awoke on Sunday to the enormity of what is happening in Scotland.
For years, the rise of Scottish national feeling has been underestimated and misunderstood.
The possibility that the United Kingdom might be heading for the history books [had] been complacently dismissed as unthinkable.
But there can be no excuse for any ignorance or complacency now.
...No other issue now matters in British politics.
These may not be 10 days that will shake the world, as John Reed called the Russian revolution. But they will be 10 days that could change all our lives, shaking the British state and its people to their very foundations."
"There was talk yesterday of a big new constitutional offer to try to keep the Scots in the Union, though it feels perilously late for that.
Some voters may be alarmed by the poll's in-your-face evidence that a yes vote really could happen.
Others, by contrast, may feel emboldened.
That's why the next 10 days are such a cliff-hanger."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/scottish-independence-ten-days-to-go-vote-uk

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Crazytree said:   
newnorley said:   
Crazytree said:   The English and Spanish have a deal where they will respectively veto Scotland and Catalonia's respective bids to join the EU.
That should temper expectations a bit.

  Not really. People voting yes aren't doing it based on economic reasons.

I'd explain the larger, long-term process to you, but it would be a waste of time.
Additionally, your comment is just plain absurd given Scotland's independent-minded economic policies and the fact that Catalonia has, for a century, been the economic powerhouse of Spain.

  
NewNorley is from the UK (http://www.fatwallet.com/forums/finance/1259789/m17600428/#m17600428), so his/her opinion is valued by me (the OP), and I wouldn't feel that a respectful discussion about her/his views would be "a waste of time".

Having lived in the UK a long time myself, I agree with NewNorley that many of the referendum "yes" voters wouldn't be thinking of economic reasons first and foremost, at least the subset of economic factors that Crazytree has mentioned that he finds salient.

Most of the eligible voters in Scotland are not unaware of the EU complications/uncertainty, and it's been in the news a lot there, so the issue is already factored into most individuals' yes/no decisions.  It is not as if we in the US have some information that they are not in possession of and which will change their "expectations" once they learn of it.
 

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"A new federal constitutional order – with sweeping devolution to the English regions and Wales, and to Scotland if it remains – must be built."
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/07/scotland-de... 


I quoted that sentence in an earlier post, but it strikes me for another reason -- the fact that Northern Ireland is hardly mentioned even when the relationship between the (four) countries of the UK is being discussed.

I don't know if the author of that sentence thought that Northern Ireland already has a devolution that is "sweeping" enough and therefore it wasn't worth mentioning... maybe.  But if that were the case, I'd have expected him to mention their devolution as an example, to learn from at least, if not to follow.  It seems as if he were ignoring the fourth UK country entirely.

It is amazing to me how Northern Ireland is so close to England geographically and historically, but is barely in the consciousness of most English people (at least those who don't have personal ties to N. Ireland or Ireland).

I think the way it's organized is way too complicated, but then I'm not personally involved in the history, religion, economy, etc.  I guess it's becoming more complicated so that, over time, at a glacial pace, it can become less complicated.

Wikipedia:
"Since the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, Northern Ireland is largely self-governing."
"Since 1998, Northern Ireland has devolved government within the United Kingdom.
The UK Government and UK Parliament are responsible for reserved and excepted matters.
Reserved matters are a list of policy area (such as civil aviation, units of measurement, and human genetics), which Parliament may devolve to Northern Ireland Assembly at some time in future.
Excepted matters (such as international relations, taxation and elections) are never expected to be considered for devolution.
On all other matters, the Northern Ireland Executive together with the 108-member Northern Ireland Assembly may legislate and govern for Northern Ireland.
Devolution in Northern Ireland is dependent upon participation by members of the Northern Ireland executive in the North/South Ministerial Council, which co-ordinates areas of co-operation (such as agriculture, education and health) between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
Additionally, "in recognition of the Irish Government's special interest in Northern Ireland", the Government of Ireland and Government of the United Kingdom co-operate closely on non-devolved matters through the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference."
"Cultural links between Northern Ireland, the rest of Ireland, and the rest of the UK are complex, with Northern Ireland sharing both the culture of Ireland and the culture of the United Kingdom. In most sports, the island of Ireland fields a single team, a notable exception being association football. Northern Ireland competes separately at the Commonwealth Games, and athletes from Northern Ireland may compete for either Great Britain or Ireland at the Olympic Games."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland 


============
In a very brief search engine search, I found only a few current articles that mention both countries' devolutions - here's one from last week from a Belfast (Northern Ireland) newspaper. 

I have bolded the points that stood out to me.  

I also underlined the one idea that is so obvious, I hadn't even realized it ('duh'!) about the Northern Ireland devolution -- there is only one way that Northern Ireland is expected to go, if they ever leave the UK, and that is to go back to a union with Ireland.  They can't stand on their own as a separate country, so their future options are not the same as Scotland's. 

Also, their nation's history (as a separate nation) and geographic boundaries are not old, settled, and uncontroversial like Scotland's, of course. 

article:  "Scottish independence: Whatever referendum outcome, Scotland can frame debate in future terms, not the past - unlike Northern Ireland"
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/debateni/blogs/scottish-independence-whatever-referendum-outcome-scotland-can-frame-debate-in-future-terms-not-the-past-unlike-northern-ireland-30539031.html 
27 August 2014

"There will be an outcome and a lesson for Northern Ireland that will emerge from the Scottish referendum. Whatever the result, there will be a new deal for Scotland, whether that be independence or extended devolution.
The former may drive insecurity further into unionism and remove what they consider as their closest British relative.
The latter will raise demands for a more equitable distribution of power out of Westminster and across the other devolved regions.
The lesson is that the Scots have generally dealt well with complex and emotive issues, and in so doing have provided legitimacy to all of the voices that will frame the referendum process.
....There have been clear signs over the past year of campaigning that democracy in Scotland is both mature and robust.
We can understand that issues that confront Northern Ireland are rawer than in Scotland, but it is not a place unknown to bitter uprisings, land clearances, pernicious de-industrialisation, cultural control and sectarian asperity.
There is still immense value in appreciating the Scots' attempts, despite division, to raise the level of debate within an already well-informed electorate.
Topics have been numerous and have included the EU, Nato, complex public sector spending issues, university funding and Scotland's lower-than-UK-average life expectancy.
...Whatever the outcome, Scotland has shown the capacity to debate and for politicians to speak to, and not at, their respective audiences. The first Salmond versus Darling debate was robust and passionate, so much so that the usually dour Darling came across as ardent and astute.  We witnessed conviction politicians who disagreed about the vision, but did so by offering political opinion and analysis as opposed to mere diatribe. The central theme of that debate – Scotland's exclusion from sterling – led to a week of measured media commentary, academic analysis and a purposeful recognition of the electorate's opinion on the matter.
Devolution has been good for Scotland and has provided a platform on which to think about and develop a future.
Northern Ireland lacks the same dynamic because the 'sureties' of the Union, or Irish unification, are asserted without any notion that other options exist, or that the electorate may be more complex, or wavering, than imagined.
Would Irish unification be in the interests of an emergent Catholic middle class heavily dependent upon public sector employment? Similarly, do unionists still fear a Republic largely unrecognisable to what it was at the start of conflict in 1968?
Of course, only a handful of academics and civic society groups even think to debate such issues. For the political classes there will be no similar debate, as their conviction is anti-persuasion centred upon a self-acclaimed knowledge of what 'their' people think – overconfidence at times espoused in the form of the Orwellian mantra, 'two legs better'.
In Scotland, the maturity of the debate has been based upon an ability to understand the diversity of the electorate. In Northern Ireland, political coverage is usually about the political fallout, and within that drip, drip, drip of disagreement the electorate seem to simply disappear.
Across the Irish Sea, there has been a serious and informed commentary about women, who tend to favour the No camp due to their fear that the risks are too high with regard to the wellbeing of future generations.
Similarly, the first-time voters entitled to vote at 16 are not Yes voters, as expected, but by a ratio of around 2:1 see value in staying with the UK. That UK is defined by them by social media influences and the coolness of the British brand.  This Britishness among the young appears to be based upon a feelgood factor as opposed to blind devotion and an expectation of that devoutness to outdated ideas of identity and the constitutional self.
Many of our young people also feel a less traditional desire to cling to the old, but are generally invisible in debates and analysis.
If Scotland does go independent, then the impulse for Irish unification, or a variation of it, will rise significantly.
Sinn Fein's continued growth in the Republic and the departure of Scotland would be an impetus for change and would turn what seems an abstract goal into something more tangible.
The one certainty is that the level and depth of the local constitutional debate will remain mired in early 20th century ideas of identity, economy, nationhood and the constitutional position.
That situation, founded on self-belief and collective diagnoses, will suit some, but is increasingly unreflective of an increasingly diverse Northern Ireland in which many seek a politics of the future no longer based upon century-old positions.
Scottish politicians know that all is future without the need to reach deep into the past to rescue, or define, an argument.
...The Scots, of whatever hue, understand the potential and future paths in ways we have yet to conceive.

(Professor Peter Shirlow is deputy director of the Institute for the Study of Conflict Transformation and Social Justice at Queen's University Belfast)

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And now Wales is also asking if they should use the threat of secession to get the goodies Scotland is being offered.

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And to come back to the currency market side of this, which is one of the main reasons I posted this thread here (although the entire topic is very "finance"-related for all sorts of reasons, of course):

Monday 8 September 2014 04.08 BST
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/08/scottish-indepen...  

"Scottish independence: pound slumps to lowest level for 10 months
Sterling suffers sell-off on Asian markets amid fears that ‘yes’ vote could send the currency plunging by up to 10%"

"The pound skidded nearly 1% to around $1.6165, reaching lows not seen since November, when trading opened in Asian markets on Monday.

There are fears it could fall up to 10% thanks to uncertainty about what might happen to the currency if Scotland votes to split from the UK.

'I think the message here is that the market really hadn’t priced in the possibility of a ‘yes’ vote, so therefore we will probably see some uncertainty, maybe some volatility,' said Jesper Bargmann, head of trading for Nordea Bank in Singapore."

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NantucketSunrise said:   
jayK said:   UK is offering Scotland greater autonomy if they vote no:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/scotland-powers-...

Apparently something like that worked in Quebec in 1995...

"The [UK] chancellor detailed the plans – the product of backroom talks – saying they would be unveiled in the next few days with a clear timetable for implementation in the event of a no vote.
The offer is similar to the last-minute package offered to Quebec by the Canadian government in 1995, that staved off a vote for separation."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/scotland-powers-george-osborne-support-parties 

"At the beginning of the 1995 campaign in Canada, the no side opposing sovereignty for the province of mostly French-speaking Québec had a big lead in the polls.
But just as now appears in Scotland, the yes side had the momentum in the final weeks of the campaign. 
Ultimately, after an emotional and controversial campaign, the no vote won with a razor-thin majority of 50.58% to 49.42%."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/scottish-independence-tactics-quebec

  Most Americans do not realize how close civil war was in Canada, the separation issue has come up numerous times, and the last time it went to referendum, about 3 days after the vote, the General for the air force of Canada was fired, as it was discovered he had transferred all the fighter jets to Quebec bases, just in case the Yes vote won and there was reluctance by the Canadian gov't to allow it.
Quebec accounts for 39% of Canada population, so it would be a dramatically large event on the US border.
People's emotions can get very high in these situations, it will  be interesting to see the Scots vote.

rated:
What is the point of this thread?

rated:
BlueSeaLake said:   
NantucketSunrise said:   
jayK said:   UK is offering Scotland greater autonomy if they vote no:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/scotland-powers-...

Apparently something like that worked in Quebec in 1995...

"The [UK] chancellor detailed the plans – the product of backroom talks – saying they would be unveiled in the next few days with a clear timetable for implementation in the event of a no vote.
The offer is similar to the last-minute package offered to Quebec by the Canadian government in 1995, that staved off a vote for separation."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/scotland-powers-george-osborne-support-parties 

"At the beginning of the 1995 campaign in Canada, the no side opposing sovereignty for the province of mostly French-speaking Québec had a big lead in the polls.
But just as now appears in Scotland, the yes side had the momentum in the final weeks of the campaign. 
Ultimately, after an emotional and controversial campaign, the no vote won with a razor-thin majority of 50.58% to 49.42%."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/scottish-independence-tactics-quebec

  Most Americans do not realize how close civil war was in Canada, the separation issue has come up numerous times, and the last time it went to referendum, about 3 days after the vote, the General for the air force of Canada was fired, as it was discovered he had transferred all the fighter jets to Quebec bases, just in case the Yes vote won and there was reluctance by the Canadian gov't to allow it.
Quebec accounts for 39% of Canada population, so it would be a dramatically large event on the US border.
People's emotions can get very high in these situations, it will  be interesting to see the Scots vote.

  It's interesting with Canada.  Basically Quebec only had one chance at this thing.  If they tried the vote again today, it would probably fail by a larger amount, due to many more immigrants in Quebec.
If that one passed, Canada would have been chopped in two right down the middle.  It would have been difficult to have an eastern Canada and a western Canada.

rated:
BlueSeaLake said:   
NantucketSunrise said:   
jayK said:   UK is offering Scotland greater autonomy if they vote no:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/scotland-powers-...

Apparently something like that worked in Quebec in 1995...

"The [UK] chancellor detailed the plans – the product of backroom talks – saying they would be unveiled in the next few days with a clear timetable for implementation in the event of a no vote.
The offer is similar to the last-minute package offered to Quebec by the Canadian government in 1995, that staved off a vote for separation."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/scotland-powers-george-osborne-support-parties 

"At the beginning of the 1995 campaign in Canada, the no side opposing sovereignty for the province of mostly French-speaking Québec had a big lead in the polls.
But just as now appears in Scotland, the yes side had the momentum in the final weeks of the campaign. 
Ultimately, after an emotional and controversial campaign, the no vote won with a razor-thin majority of 50.58% to 49.42%."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/scottish-independence-tactics-quebec

  Most Americans do not realize how close civil war was in Canada, the separation issue has come up numerous times, and the last time it went to referendum, about 3 days after the vote, the General for the air force of Canada was fired, as it was discovered he had transferred all the fighter jets to Quebec bases, just in case the Yes vote won and there was reluctance by the Canadian gov't to allow it.
Quebec accounts for 39% of Canada population, so it would be a dramatically large event on the US border.
People's emotions can get very high in these situations, it will  be interesting to see the Scots vote.

  My Dad was born in Scotland in 1936.  He wanted Scotland to be independent since he was a kid.  My entire family in Scotland strongly feels the same.  I hope they get their freedom and at least the consequences, if any, are their own choice.

rated:
Crazytree said:   What is the point of this thread?
  vindication for braveheart

rated:
Crazytree said:   What is the point of this thread?
  Ideas on profiting from this vote. Scottish freedom for fun & profit

rated:
bozo007 said:   
Crazytree said:   What is the point of this thread?
  Ideas on profiting from this vote. Scottish freedom for fun & profit

  Ugh. I was going to london next labor day and thought it would be awesome to goto scotland and drive around the highlands and look for lochness. Now I'm worried about change in immigration policy, visas, blah blah.

rated:
bozo007 said:   
Crazytree said:   What is the point of this thread?
  Ideas on profiting from this vote. Scottish freedom for fun & profit

  
Buy the pound now, sell it later? It's a gamble though...

rated:
rufflesinc said:   
bozo007 said:   
Crazytree said:   What is the point of this thread?
  Ideas on profiting from this vote. Scottish freedom for fun & profit

  Ugh. I was going to london next labor day and thought it would be awesome to goto scotland and drive around the highlands and look for lochness. Now I'm worried about change in immigration policy, visas, blah blah.

If this thing passes, I strongly doubt there will be immigration controls driving between the two countries. There aren't any between Ireland and Northern Ireland. In most of Europe, the Schengen Agreement removed border controls, although there is always a small possibility of being stopped to show ID. The UK isn't part of the Schengen area. This resulted in Ireland not being part of it either, or there would need to be border controls between Ireland and the UK (including Northern Ireland). I would assume there will be a UK-Scotland-Ireland area without border controls if independence passes.

The only thing I would worry about while driving is getting used to driving on the left.

rated:
burgerwars said:   
rufflesinc said:   
bozo007 said:   
Crazytree said:   What is the point of this thread?
  Ideas on profiting from this vote. Scottish freedom for fun & profit

  Ugh. I was going to london next labor day and thought it would be awesome to goto scotland and drive around the highlands and look for lochness. Now I'm worried about change in immigration policy, visas, blah blah.

If this thing passes, I strongly doubt there will be immigration controls driving between the two countries. There aren't any between Ireland and Northern Ireland. In most of Europe, the Schengen Agreement removed border controls, although there is always a small possibility of being stopped to show ID. The UK isn't part of the Schengen area. This resulted in Ireland not being part of it either, or there would need to be border controls between Ireland and the UK (including Northern Ireland). I would assume there will be a UK-Scotland-Ireland area without border controls if independence passes.

The only thing I would worry about while driving is getting used to driving on the left.

  
Actually if I understand the Schengen agreement (UK has some responsibility) they would have to start controlling their border with Scotland until there is an agreement in place that conforms.  Most likely that would be hashed out in the time between the vote and implementation.  Scotland would not need to control traffic incoming to Scotland though.  I would assume that the UK would admit Scotland to the CTA though - they do the same with the Republic of Ireland. 

Even though the UK isn't part of Schengen they do conform to the visa requirements.  As a tourist you can freely travel between the UK and Europe on an entry visa from UK, for example.  In effect except for special categories (like travelling with pets) most tourists won't know the difference between CTA and Schengen.

rated:
rufflesinc said:   
bozo007 said:   
Crazytree said:   What is the point of this thread?
  Ideas on profiting from this vote. Scottish freedom for fun & profit

  Ugh. I was going to london next labor day and thought it would be awesome to goto scotland and drive around the highlands and look for lochness. Now I'm worried about change in immigration policy, visas, blah blah.

  
Your labor trip visit in 2015 should be unaffected, as any independence wouldn't occur until 2016 at the earliest if they vote yes. It takes a bit of time to organize a divorce of this scale you know!

rated:
I find it interesting that people actually think that a
1) Small developed country with an abundance of oil that has succeeded in repudiating all of it's implied sovereign debt load without any legal credit (default) event (other than being treated as the world's thin file country) in the most liquid sovereign debt market in potentially world history.

would be less wealthy than and less well off than...

2) A region within another developed country that is heavily indebted that are expected to help back stop a continent that is heavily indebted.


It's like breaking a marriage and being able to legally shaft your ex-spouse with all the marital debt. How in the hell people could think that creditors wouldn't rush to the new debt free country I have no idea. How in the hell people could think that investors/financial institutions/etc. wouldn't rush to the new debt free country I have no idea. And the EU will not let an economically valuable land like Scotland leave the EU.

rated:
dshibb said:   I find it interesting that people actually think that a
1) Small developed country with an abundance of oil that has succeeded in repudiating all of it's implied sovereign debt load without any legal credit (default) event (other than being treated as the world's thin file country) in the most liquid sovereign debt market in potentially world history.

would be less wealthy than and less well off than...

2) A region within another developed country that is heavily indebted that are expected to help back stop a continent that is heavily indebted.


It's like breaking a marriage and being able to legally shaft your ex-spouse with all the marital debt. How in the hell people could think that creditors wouldn't rush to the new debt free country I have no idea. How in the hell people could think that investors/financial institutions/etc. wouldn't rush to the new debt free country I have no idea. And the EU will not let an economically valuable land like Scotland leave the EU.

  
That's the interesting case if Scotland does vote yes. Exactly what are the agreed terms of the divorce. I can't see Scotland being able to walk away without some share of the UK national debt incurred. The exact figure is where things get messy, as Scotland would love to have zero, whilst the rest of the UK will want to have Scotland take as much debt as they can get away with.

I also agree that the EU is highly likely to admit an independent Scotland, although other European countries especially Spain could be worried that this will encourage some of their regions to demand independence and become independent EU admitted countries based on the Scottish example.

rated:
cjbell said:   
dshibb said:   I find it interesting that people actually think that a
1) Small developed country with an abundance of oil that has succeeded in repudiating all of it's implied sovereign debt load without any legal credit (default) event (other than being treated as the world's thin file country) in the most liquid sovereign debt market in potentially world history.

would be less wealthy than and less well off than...

2) A region within another developed country that is heavily indebted that are expected to help back stop a continent that is heavily indebted.


It's like breaking a marriage and being able to legally shaft your ex-spouse with all the marital debt. How in the hell people could think that creditors wouldn't rush to the new debt free country I have no idea. How in the hell people could think that investors/financial institutions/etc. wouldn't rush to the new debt free country I have no idea. And the EU will not let an economically valuable land like Scotland leave the EU.

  
That's the interesting case if Scotland does vote yes. Exactly what are the agreed terms of the divorce. I can't see Scotland being able to walk away without some share of the UK national debt incurred. The exact figure is where things get messy, as Scotland would love to have zero, whilst the rest of the UK will want to have Scotland take as much debt as they can get away with.

I also agree that the EU is highly likely to admit an independent Scotland, although other European countries especially Spain could be worried that this will encourage some of their regions to demand independence and become independent EU admitted countries based on the Scottish example.

  
I'm sure you've heard of the term "holds all the cards". In that situation UK has basically little recourse to force Scotland into accepting anything more than a token amount of debt. They have no ability to get their creditors to treat Scotland like a defaulted country because there is no creditor in the world that will look at it that way when they step up to lend to Scotland. There is no way the ISDA will announce it to be a credit event. UK has next to zero leverage.

Basically it's as simple as the husband put all of the debt in his name. There is no judge. So the wife can leave and the creditors can't do squat and the husband can't do squat. That simple.

This is also why the Republic of Veneto and Republic of Catalonia would be almost instantaneously bypass Hong Kong, Monoco, Singapore, Abu Dhabi, Lichtenstein, and Qatar combined overnight if they succeeded in independence. Their massive wealth and huge current account surplus and lack of sovereign debt would allow them to drop tax rates to sub 20% rates instantaneously. They value of their currency would skyrocket almost instantaneously and if they did offer to sell bonds they would be treated as safe haven bonds as valuable as SWBs.

It's no wonder why both countries are scared $hitless of it happening because it basically creates two unavoidable circumstances. The bailout/default of Spain and Italy. The rise of Venoto and Catalonia to a pillar of wealth and success almost unrivaled anywhere in the world.

Skipping 78 Messages...
rated:
Its not a landslide since they aren't electing representatives. It shows that the nationalists are widespread and not just one highly populated area -- big cities and small ones all have a lot of people willing to leave. Unless you think that anybody that changes their mind will go to the "don't care" side its more of a 5% difference since any voter that changed their mind would vote the other way versus not voting.

All it would have taken was a different result from EU -- if they had been assured EU membership them most likely it would have swung the other way. Being cast out from EU and the Sterling combined likely affected a lot of votes. My prediction was right on the money though, 55% no.

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