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Discussion: Is there a real estate housing bubble, and, if there is, what will pop it? Archived From: Finance

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mgdeals said:bassmanben said:cameron2003 said:I am a UC Davis Alum too. I guess Davis graduates are cheap, I had a feeling...Aggie pride. We pwn Stanford.

UCD = backup plan if you don't get into Cal.


For me it was UCB > UCLA > UCI > UCSB > UCD


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mgdeals said:bassmanben said:cameron2003 said:I am a UC Davis Alum too. I guess Davis graduates are cheap, I had a feeling...Aggie pride. We pwn Stanford.

UCD = backup plan if you don't get into Cal.


Haha, no its for people that dont want to live in or near Berkeley.


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cameron2003 said:mgdeals said:

UCD = backup plan if you don't get into Cal.


Haha, no its for people that dont want to live in or near Berkeley.
Exactly. Don't want to be near those tree-hugging pot-smoking hippies. And William Hung.


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bassmanben said:cameron2003 said:I am a UC Davis Alum too. I guess Davis graduates are cheap, I had a feeling...Aggie pride. We pwn Stanford.


i gave up the cold war university and went for uc berkeley


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From today's Baltimore Sun:

*****
Home sales down 22% from year ago
Metro area skids in June as listings pile up, prices flatten

By Lorraine Mirabella
Sun reporter

Originally published July 11, 2006

Housing sales in the Baltimore area skidded more than 22 percent last month from June 2005 levels, the biggest drop in more than seven years, and prices flattened as the real estate slowdown extended into the prime summer season.

On average, homes in the region commanded just 3.41 percent more than they did a year earlier - the first time price appreciation fell into the single digits since March 2004.

(More in link)
******

Link to Baltimore Sun


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vinny09 said:In all, I'm thinking if I walked in right now, I could probably get one for $410K-$420K. Currently, they have 32 total homes released in their 1st phase, with 15 sold so far, but none built. Advice greatly appreciated. Thanks!

I know this area well; we just sold our rental house in Davis early 2005 after 8 years. We did not do any 1031 exchange, contrary to advice of many real-estate professionals; just paid our taxes and took our profits. The pricing in Woodland has gone crazy; at least the Davis school district is good and is a nice town to live(hated the city bureaucracy as a landlord).

Woodland does not have an economic base to support the current home prices, has poor schools & and is not as attractive to Asian immigrants as SF & LA areas are.

If you can afford a fixed-rate loan and have 20% down-payment, go ahead and buy the home if you plan to stay in Woodland for the next 5 years.


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cameron2003 said:Interesting, but I doubt many people would walk away from their house if they still had liquidity (stocks, paychecks, savings as mentioned) to make payments. Just my gut feeling, but why would you walk away if you still had resources left to pay it?

I guess if you were upside down by a lot and thought the housing market would never come back, you might.


I hear this argument repeatedly and don't buy it one bit. Any normal, rational sane person paying $5000/ month mortgage on a $700,000 loan realizes their new neighbor next door will be paying ~$3000/month on their $400,000 loan for an identical house, I don't believe there are many people who will happily keep paying the $5000 because they "can afford it" and be content to wait 10 years until the market comes back.


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chuzzlewit said:cameron2003 said:Interesting, but I doubt many people would walk away from their house if they still had liquidity (stocks, paychecks, savings as mentioned) to make payments. Just my gut feeling, but why would you walk away if you still had resources left to pay it?

I guess if you were upside down by a lot and thought the housing market would never come back, you might.


I hear this argument repeatedly and don't buy it one bit. Any normal, rational sane person paying $5000/ month mortgage on a $700,000 loan realizes their new neighbor next door will be paying ~$3000/month on their $400,000 loan for an identical house, I don't believe there are many people who will happily keep paying the $5000 because they "can afford it" and be content to wait 10 years until the market comes back.
But that's assuming the same interest rate is paid. What seems a constant is the total housing payment that is about equal to rent (despite booms and busts).


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tooshy said:But that's assuming the same interest rate is paid. What seems a constant is the total housing payment that is about equal to rent (despite booms and busts).

That is true in a normal market.... Not so in some hot spots like Cali, NY, DC, FL. Also I would rather pay a higher interest rate than a higher price house. Rates will always go down.


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hope69 said:tooshy said:But that's assuming the same interest rate is paid. What seems a constant is the total housing payment that is about equal to rent (despite booms and busts).

That is true in a normal market.... Not so in some hot spots like Cali, NY, DC, FL. Also I would rather pay a higher interest rate than a higher price house. Rates will always go down.


did u ever see such a "normal market"? maybe just some urban myth, if housing payment is close to rent, who will rent....


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caonima said:hope69 said:tooshy said:But that's assuming the same interest rate is paid. What seems a constant is the total housing payment that is about equal to rent (despite booms and busts).

That is true in a normal market.... Not so in some hot spots like Cali, NY, DC, FL. Also I would rather pay a higher interest rate than a higher price house. Rates will always go down.


did u ever see such a "normal market"? maybe just some urban myth, if housing payment is close to rent, who will rent....


If housing payment is close to rent, the people who will rent (instead of own) will be:

1) those who can't come up with a down payment (or qualify for a loan with no down payment)
2) those who can't qualify for a loan (most likely bad credit or low income)
3) those who can't afford the extra costs of owning - like taxes, insurance, home repairs, etc. Rent is usually pretty fixed, and landlords tend to do most repairs. But, if you own, then it's all up to you.
4) those who aren't financially savvy to realize when it is better to buy then rent
5) those who aren't going to live in an area for long

...and the reasons could go on and on.


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chuzzlewit said:cameron2003 said:Interesting, but I doubt many people would walk away from their house if they still had liquidity (stocks, paychecks, savings as mentioned) to make payments. Just my gut feeling, but why would you walk away if you still had resources left to pay it?

I guess if you were upside down by a lot and thought the housing market would never come back, you might.


I hear this argument repeatedly and don't buy it one bit. Any normal, rational sane person paying $5000/ month mortgage on a $700,000 loan realizes their new neighbor next door will be paying ~$3000/month on their $400,000 loan for an identical house, I don't believe there are many people who will happily keep paying the $5000 because they "can afford it" and be content to wait 10 years until the market comes back.


I dont think its as easy as that to walk away. Im not sure about this, but I think your credit is pretty much ruined. You also lose your down payment. There are other reasons that make staying rather than walking away attractive. Im sure there are examples of major corrections (in your example its more like a bubble which is another question) where people could walk away in droves. What about L.A. in the 90s?


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caonima said:hope69 said:tooshy said:But that's assuming the same interest rate is paid. What seems a constant is the total housing payment that is about equal to rent (despite booms and busts).

That is true in a normal market.... Not so in some hot spots like Cali, NY, DC, FL. Also I would rather pay a higher interest rate than a higher price house. Rates will always go down.


did u ever see such a "normal market"? maybe just some urban myth, if housing payment is close to rent, who will rent....


My expense
$1900+190 (maintenance)+ $20 RE for 15years = $2210/month 30year mortgage + $130k down
My renter pays
$3100/month
$3100 - 2210 = $890/month = $10,680/year profit per year, which equates to 8.25% return on my 130k down payment.

Renter pays my mortgage, maintenance, RE and I get 8.25% return on my $130k investment. Not a "urban myth" to me

EDIT: sorry $140k downpay so 7.63% Return


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"Housing Market Cools in SoCal" LA Times 12 July 2006

"Southern California's housing market continued to show more signs of weakening in June as the median home price in San Diego fell for the first time in nearly a decade and sales tumbled in Los Angeles County, according to real estate figures released today.

The median price of all homes sold in San Diego last month sagged 1% from the same month last year to $488,000, according to DataQuick Information Systems, a real estate research firm. The last time San Diego County, which once ranked as one of the region's hottest real estate markets, reported a year-over-year drop in the median price was in July 1996, DataQuick said....."


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My expense
$1900+190 (maintenance)+ $20 RE for 15years = $2210/month 30year mortgage + $130k down
My renter pays
$3100/month
$3100 - 2210 = $890/month = $10,680/year profit per year, which equates to 8.25% return on my 130k down payment.

Renter pays my mortgage, maintenance, RE and I get 8.25% return on my $130k investment. Not a "urban myth" to me


How about property tax on the place? Accounting for vacancy? Insurance? Income tax on the rental?


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Namlemez said:
My expense
$1900+190 (maintenance)+ $20 RE for 15years = $2210/month 30year mortgage + $130k down
My renter pays
$3100/month
$3100 - 2210 = $890/month = $10,680/year profit per year, which equates to 8.25% return on my 130k down payment.

Renter pays my mortgage, maintenance, RE and I get 8.25% return on my $130k investment. Not a "urban myth" to me


How about property tax on the place? Accounting for vacancy? Insurance? Income tax on the rental?


RE (Real Estate tax) = $20/month (15year tax abatement)already accounted on my bill above.
Vancancy? 2 year lease, need 15days to freshen up paint.
Insurance? included in maintenance
Income tax on rental? everyone pays income tax (140k on my bank is also subject to income tax)


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Pun said:
Income tax on rental? everyone pays income tax.


Sure, but doesn't it act like a tax and/or negative incentive for people trying to do what you're doing? Say you want to just buy some real-estate and hold it. You want the rent to cover your mortgage of $1000. So you rent it out for $1000, but you have to pay income tax on that $1000 that is really just going straight to the bank. Net result, you really need to rent it for $1000 + ($1000 * your income tax rate) if you're hoping to have the renter really pay your mortgage.


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it doesnt work that way.
Most home mortgages are tax deductible and you can get little creative with your rental thus avoiding any tax on rental.


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You don't need to "get creative". If it's a rental, then all mortgage interest is deductible, plus real estate taxes, any utilities you need to pay, HO insurance, any expenses you incur trying to rent it, and any expenses of managing the rental. On top of all this, you get to depreciate the house and take that deduction. Most people will owe zero tax on their rental income...


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I was talking about getting creative with $900 profit from rent - mortgage.
Thanks for clarifying the information though.


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