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Treasury Bills: Rate Tracking, Discussion, and FAQs

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Just out of curiosity, since most people investing in treasuries are interested in iron-clad safety, does anybody have qualms about having significant assets at Treasury Direct? I realize the likelihood of a "hack" is very slim, but still ... it seems to me that the risk of losing one's account to a hacker ought not to be a risk taken by the account-holder. I suppose it would be very difficult indeed for someone to "empty" our accounts since its a PITA to add a bank account (now requiring a signature guarantee). Still, I would be hesitant to put a substantial amount of money in the TD system because I'd hate to be denuded of my assets because of a clever fraudster.


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91-DAY 09-06-2007 12-06-2007 4.350 4.472 98.900417 912795B59 APY = 4.548%

182-DAY 09-06-2007 03-06-2008 4.380 4.554 97.785667 912795D24 APY = 4.606%

Message edited by: ThursdaysChild on 2007-09-05 12:13:21 CDT
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28-DAY 09-06-2007 10-04-2007 4.280 4.366 99.667111 912795A43 APY = 4.455%

Edit: Would someone please check the results from the last couple of weeks and adjust for 27- or 28-day, 91- or 92-day, etc. The Treasury results are confusing me. Thanks.

Edit #2: thanks, Goldsheet. APY is corrected.

Message edited by: ThursdaysChild on 2007-09-05 23:05:07 CDT
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It appears both ThursdaysChild and I made an error on the 28 day bills.
I put the wrong number in the formula and he made a typo in his post.
I had 4.424% and TC had 4.555, but I think we now agree APY = 4.455% is correct.

Give me lots of red, I deserve it !
I fixed Quick Summary and tbillsheet.com

Message edited by: goldsheet on 2007-09-05 22:38:28 CDT
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mariojm said:Looks like I missed an interesting T-bill roller coaster ride for the last three weeks while hiking in the Alps and visiting thousand year old castles and monasteries!

From my current outsider perspective, the recent move in fed funds futures towards rate cuts is pretty surprising - we have known about the subprime mortgage crisis for a while now, and it is not the fed's mandate to fix short term liquidity crises that arise from miscalculations of risk - rather, it is the fed's mandate to keep price levels and employment stable through long term intervention. I don't see how target fed funds cuts are suddenly necessary or will address this dual mandate. So if the fed wants to do the right thing, I believe it ought to keep the fed funds rate target right where it is.

Thanks to all who continued contributing here and informed the mods to update the original post and title!

My guess is that the fed fund futures are indicative of an expectation for the fed to lower rates in an effort to ward off unemployment. Although, the unemployment rate has so far remained steady, the economy has been increasingly creating less jobs.. I don't know how much of this is related to current liquidity issues. If my guess is correct, a rate drop will depend on how proactive the fed wants to be combating unemployment all the while balancing this concern with inflation. With their meeting date fast approaching, I suspect FOMC members will pay attention to the weekly jobless claims result on Wednesday. What is unsettling is not only does the fed fund futures market predict a rate cut, but the high probability it currently predicts a .5 point cut!


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DavidScubadiver said:Just out of curiosity, since most people investing in treasuries are interested in iron-clad safety, does anybody have qualms about having significant assets at Treasury Direct? I realize the likelihood of a "hack" is very slim, but still ... it seems to me that the risk of losing one's account to a hacker ought not to be a risk taken by the account-holder. I suppose it would be very difficult indeed for someone to "empty" our accounts since its a PITA to add a bank account (now requiring a signature guarantee). Still, I would be hesitant to put a substantial amount of money in the TD system because I'd hate to be denuded of my assets because of a clever fraudster.

In general, I prefer paper certificates when available (savings bonds) since, ironically, they are replaced when lost or stolen. But to TD's credit, they have taken a lot of steps towards increased security over the last year or so. I still have not heard of a case where someone lost money through fraud on TD (except one case where a son stole his mom's assets), which makes me feel better about continuing to use TD!


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bigpoppabear, thanks for the very insightful observations regarding the fed funds rate. Bernanke did indicate in a speech that there was a concern that the liquidity crisis could have a broader impact on the economy, and this way it would certainly affect jobs and their mandate. Last time when the fed funds futures predicted a change in course a few weeks before a meeting, they were also correct - so I don't doubt that if these probabilities hold up we'll see a rate cut. This is a little OT for this thread but I'm wondering how HYS accounts will react. There's still a lot of competition in this market, so can they afford to lower HYS rates if the fed lowers?


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mariojm said:DavidScubadiver said:Just out of curiosity, since most people investing in treasuries are interested in iron-clad safety, does anybody have qualms about having significant assets at Treasury Direct? I realize the likelihood of a "hack" is very slim, but still ... it seems to me that the risk of losing one's account to a hacker ought not to be a risk taken by the account-holder. I suppose it would be very difficult indeed for someone to "empty" our accounts since its a PITA to add a bank account (now requiring a signature guarantee). Still, I would be hesitant to put a substantial amount of money in the TD system because I'd hate to be denuded of my assets because of a clever fraudster.

In general, I prefer paper certificates when available (savings bonds) since, ironically, they are replaced when lost or stolen. But to TD's credit, they have taken a lot of steps towards increased security over the last year or so. I still have not heard of a case where someone lost money through fraud on TD (except one case where a son stole his mom's assets), which makes me feel better about continuing to use TD!
No doubt, their systems have improved vastly over time and now it'd be harder than ever for anybody to do damage. What irks me is the possibility that the website could be easily hacked and passwords/bank information obtained and altered. I have NO REASON WHATSOEVER for thinking that is the case, but it is at least a possibility and if its THERE fault someone gets my password in the first place, its just wrong that I'm held responsible. In other words, they don't seem to have anything at risk other than jobs and reputation, to protect me from their negligence. Generally businesses are responsible for their own negligence and that puts the "cost" of their negligence on them rather than the victim.

Message edited by: DavidScubadiver on 2007-09-08 07:07:40 CDT
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For those who want to try forecasting the T Bill rates as well as the post-September FOMC meeting fed funds rate, here are a few points of interest:

Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates as of last Friday

Graph of September Yield Curve Rates as of last Friday

Official Fed Funds Rate Predictions (Cleveland Fed)

Mario's 2006 Fed Funds Forecasting Analysis


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91-DAY 9/13/2007 12/13/2007 3.8 3.901 99.039444 912795B67 APY= 3.958
182-DAY 9/13/2007 3/13/2008 4.02 4.172 97.967667 912795D32 APY= 4.216


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ThursdaysChild said:For those who want to try forecasting the T Bill rates as well as the post-September FOMC meeting fed funds rate, here are a few points of interest:

Official Fed Funds Rate Predictions (Cleveland Fed)

Looking at the charts, its seems to be leaning toward a 125 basis point cut in the Fed Funds rate. Is that really going to happen??


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TheWalL said:ThursdaysChild said:For those who want to try forecasting the T Bill rates as well as the post-September FOMC meeting fed funds rate, here are a few points of interest:

Official Fed Funds Rate Predictions (Cleveland Fed)

Looking at the charts, its seems to be leaning toward a 125 basis point cut in the Fed Funds rate. Is that really going to happen??

125 bp by the end of the year seems pretty doubtful to me. I'd guess they'll drop the Funds rate .25 this month.


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A 25 bp cut is already priced into the notes.


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28-DAY 9/13/2007 10/11/2007 4 4.079 99.688889 912795A50 APY= 4.157


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28-DAY 09-13-2007 10-11-2007 4.000 4.079 99.688889 912795A50 APY 4.157%

So, is it 0.25% or 0.5% rate cut in the cards for next week?


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I got my TD Access Card today. Pretty low-tech. Kinda looks like something you'd create when you were 10 to pass secret messages. I was expecting something electronic (like those RSA keys).


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91-DAY 09-20-2007 12-20-2007 4.050 4.160 98.976250 912795B75 4.225% APY
182-DAY 09-20-2007 03-20-2008 4.130 4.288 97.912056 912795D40 4.334% APY

Message edited by: bejota3 on 2007-09-17 12:49:28 CDT
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Nobody cares but here it is:
28-DAY 9/20/2007 10/18/2007 3.93 4.008 99.694333 912795A68 APY= 4.083


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Now that we have started rate cuts, we need to expect that forward rates have perhaps further rate cuts priced in, that's why T-bills could potentially stay low for a while. But if something good comes out of this, it probably is that the fed already cut 50 bps - not leaving the bond markets guessing as to when further cuts may occur. I hope it stays at this level; Bernanke has been pretty good so far at not overshooting or undershooting with the rate.


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What's amazing to me is for the 28-Day bill, there was about $360mil in non-competitive bids vs. about $400mil a few months ago. Do people just not care about the rate? Is anyone here buying at these rates?


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