zzyzzx said: CoffeeEater said: I think its time to get out of stocks completely.
I think you need to do some reading about how stocks fared after the 1987 crash.
You're living in the past. It's 2007 now and stocks are taking a beating. I'm moving all my money to my GMAC account. 5% guaranteed. I don't have to deal with Dick Cheney or Chinese stock market. I get money credited every month. What's easier than that? Booyah!
Predictable decline after unsustainable gains this year - necessary to shake out the newbies who've been appearing here with questions like, "I want to get started investing in stocks...", "Can anyone tell me a good book about stock investing?", or, the best one, "Should I invest my B/T in mutual funds?" History tells us that "hand-wringers" and portfolio "micro-managers" have nearly always done far worse over time than "simple-minded" snoozers.
CoffeeEater said: sfchris said: What was the percentage crash in 1987? 30%? This is a minor selloff by comparison.
In 2007 dollars, the percentage would be about 5%. You need to adjust for inflation.
What????
% drop is % drop.
This is a 3%-4% drop, 1987 was a 30% drop. You do not adjust for inflation. The only thing that is "inflated" is that a 500 pt drop is the end of the world. The Dow was at ~2000 points the last time it dropped 500. Now it is 12,000+.
Do people think it will bounce back or continue declining tomorrow? Get out the magic-8 ball. I am gonna throw some money in, not sure if I should do it today or tomorrow.
I'm predicting gradual sliding down for the rest of the week. But 6-12 months from now everyone on here is going to be bragging about how they got in next week.
CoffeeEater said: zzyzzx said: CoffeeEater said: I think its time to get out of stocks completely.
I think you need to do some reading about how stocks fared after the 1987 crash.
You're living in the past. It's 2007 now and stocks are taking a beating. I'm moving all my money to my GMAC account. 5% guaranteed. I don't have to deal with Dick Cheney or Chinese stock market. I get money credited every month. What's easier than that? Booyah!
the paper had its limitations, including tracking only six months (yes March 09 to September 09) when the market went basically straight up. But social media and crowd-sourcing is ultimately going to be far more predictive than, for example, the Investors Sentiment survey (in my opinion) just because of the sheer volume of data collected and the fact that it is available in real-time rather than relying on days- or weeks-old survey data to be analyzed and published.
My problem with it is I'm only interested in long-term market-timing, on the order of decades, not day-to-day or month-to-month timing, which I think basically doesn't work and isn't achievable. In the short run I think statistical noise/random events overwhelm any secular trends.
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