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Discussion: Is there a real estate housing bubble, and, if there is, what will pop it? Part 3 Archived From: Finance

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Arbol?


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MarkM said:zzyzzx said: .... Median home sales prices sometimes exaggerate swings in market activity. A year ago, median home sales prices in California continued to show price gains, even though the market downturn had begun. At the time, the collapse of sub-prime lending had the effect of freezing the lower end of the market. With fewer sales of less expensive homes, the market was dominated by sales at higher price points, and median sales prices showed gains.

The opposite appears to be happening now, as lower-priced foreclosed homes come onto the market, increasing sales at lower price points, while the market for more expensive homes has slowed dramatically.
Hey, haven't checked in here for a few months & this caught my eye when I did. Is that guy (forget his ID) still around that lives in SF and kept insisting that house prices in CA were still going up gangbusters because media sale price kept rising, what does he have to say about this now? I tried like a half dozen times to explain to him the same thing this article is saying in the excerpt above, but he always just responded by insulting me.

cameron2003 I think it was?

Hi Mark-

No it wasnt me who insulted you, please go back and review the insults you hurled at me. By the way, I have posted the last few months that median price is now down in the bay area, especially inland parts...just as I had predicted all along...


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vrb747 said:Option ARMs start exploding 2010-2011,

Keep calling a bottom, oh wise ones ! This fool is going to wait

if my ARM reset today it would 'explode' from 5.125% to 4.25%. thanks ben b.


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Have any of you guys watched "My House is Worth What?" on HGTV? I caught an episode tonight that just cracked me up!! Some couple purchased an $800K house in Las Vegas in 2006 and then pumped another ~$400K of improvement into it. The real estate agent then proceeded to tell them that their house is now worth $1.5 million! What a joke!


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cameron2003 said:By the way, I have posted the last few months that median price is now down in the bay area, especially inland parts...just as I had predicted all along...Ah, yes. But I assume you're not worried in the least bit. As I recall you also were posting stuff you claimed proved that your area has a > 10% price correction just about every year. While simultaneously you posted that you were seeing no slump in prices at all.

It's amazing what you can "predict all along" if you say enough inconsistent things. David Lereah claims to have "predicted everything all along" too, last I read


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sammy1224 said:Have any of you guys watched "My House is Worth What?" on HGTV? I caught an episode tonight that just cracked me up!! Some couple purchased an $800K house in Las Vegas in 2006 and then pumped another ~$400K of improvement into it. The real estate agent then proceeded to tell them that their house is now worth $1.5 million! What a joke!
At least it's easy to tell whether it's a re-run or a new episode.


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There is another program called Flip This House.


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handyguy said:There is another program called Flip This House.
There are actually two more programs... one is called "Flip This House" and one is called "Flip That House".. one is on TLC and the other is on AandE, I believe.. both good shows IMHO


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handyguy said:There is another program called Flip This House.

And you should notice that at the end of the episode there is always commentarty about how they didn't sell the house and how much money per month it's costing them to own an empty house.


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When are the sequels coming out?

"Foreclose this Flip"

I imagine a lot of hard working, good intentioned folks got stung on this one. But when you watch the series with the Montenegro family, sheesh alot of the purchasers got hosed on those sub-standard flips. I wonder how many saw the show after purchasing a Cat House.

~miser


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clyde_frog said:vrb747 said:Option ARMs start exploding 2010-2011,

Keep calling a bottom, oh wise ones ! This fool is going to wait


if my ARM reset today it would 'explode' from 5.125% to 4.25%. thanks ben b.
At the risk of feeding a troll.... Do you care to explain how your ARM would be at 4.25%? What index are you using and what's your spread? Also, who is carrying this loan? It's hard for me to believe that an ARM after a reset will have a lower rate than a 30 yr fixed. Please check with your bank and get back to us.

Maybe you meant to say that if you were to get an ARM today that your rate would be 4.25%.


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samko said:clyde_frog said:if my ARM reset today it would 'explode' from 5.125% to 4.25%. thanks ben b.At the risk of feeding a troll.... Do you care to explain how your ARM would be at 4.25%? What index are you using and what's your spread? Also, who is carrying this loan? It's hard for me to believe that an ARM after a reset will have a lower rate than a 30 yr fixed. Please check with your bank and get back to us.I don't know about clyde_frog's ARM but why are you surprised that an ARM reset rate right now would be lower than a 30-year fixed?

ING uses 1-year LIBOR for their ARM index:

This week 2.66
Month ago 2.58
Year ago 5.23

You don't think its possible to have a 1.5% margin?


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winter said:samko said:clyde_frog said:if my ARM reset today it would 'explode' from 5.125% to 4.25%. thanks ben b.At the risk of feeding a troll.... Do you care to explain how your ARM would be at 4.25%? What index are you using and what's your spread? Also, who is carrying this loan? It's hard for me to believe that an ARM after a reset will have a lower rate than a 30 yr fixed. Please check with your bank and get back to us.I don't know about clyde_frog's ARM but why are you surprised that an ARM reset rate right now would be lower than a 30-year fixed?

ING uses 1-year LIBOR for their ARM index:

This week 2.66
Month ago 2.58
Year ago 5.23

You don't think its possible to have a 1.5% margin?

I agree, Winter. If my 5/1 ING arm were to reset today, the rate would be 4.125% (1yr CMT + 2.5 on first reset, rounded to nearest eighth).


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Has anyone else used Trulia's tools to track their local market? Because it breaks up by per square foot and by bedrooms it gets you better visibility into trends than some of the other stats out there.

For San Francisco it shows significant declines in median sales price and average price per square foot which I haven't seen picked up by other benchmarks yet.

http://www.trulia.com/real_estate/San_Francisco-California/#stats_n_trends


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samko said:clyde_frog said:vrb747 said:Option ARMs start exploding 2010-2011,

Keep calling a bottom, oh wise ones ! This fool is going to wait


if my ARM reset today it would 'explode' from 5.125% to 4.25%. thanks ben b.
At the risk of feeding a troll.... Do you care to explain how your ARM would be at 4.25%? What index are you using and what's your spread? Also, who is carrying this loan? It's hard for me to believe that an ARM after a reset will have a lower rate than a 30 yr fixed. Please check with your bank and get back to us.

Maybe you meant to say that if you were to get an ARM today that your rate would be 4.25%.

The mechanics of an Option ARM loan are being lost in this discussion. You basically get to pick your payment from one of several options, the cheapest of which doesn't even cover the interest on the loan. Sure you can also choose to pay P&I as one of the choices, but if you could afford to do that why not get a fixed rate loan?

So the worry is not what the rate is on the loan, it's that after racking up less than interest-only payments people owe more than the original loan balance. Eventually the payment will adjust to be amortizing, meaning that you have to pay both principal and interest - this is where the huge jump in monthly payment will come from. It has nothing to do with rates - they could be 0% and the payment would still jump dramatically because you're acutally paying the loan off instead of building the loan balance.

The "good" news is that many people in these loans will probably suffer the same fate as late vintage subprime loans, and default before the payment even goes up. This would make the pain in 2010+ a bit less bad by pulling it in to the near term.


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I have a quick question and hoping some one here can help

I have signed a contract to build a new home on March 2nd, I have picked the lot on the same day I signed the contract.

I have paid $2000 advance. After couple of weeks I have paid another $8500 advance after choosing the interior upgrades. My home construction supposed to start in a week.

After 7 weeks of contract, yesterday my builder called saying the home (2 stored) can't build on the lot I have selected because of aerial easement (16 feet hight) in the lot. I have asked him why he is telling that now after picking the lot and signing the contract 7 weeks ago. He said, he came to know about that only today.

The builder said, there is only one other lot left that they can build my home, and that lot has $8000 premium. The original lot I picked is a corner lot on a cul-de-sac with no neighbor and greenbelt on one side and also lot is quite bigger, I have paid $10K premium on that lot.

Builder is saying I have no other option other than selecting the alternate lot and they will give me back the $2K difference or cancel the contract.

Honestly the alternate lot doesn't deserve 8K premium, when I picked my original lot, there are bunch of other no-premium lots available. If I knew that the original lot is not available, I would have picked any other no-premium lots.

I have told them that I can move to their alternate lot, but I want my 10K premium back, and I dont want pay any premium on the alternate lot. If there is any other no-premium lot available, I am willing to move to that lot as well.

Builder says, there is no other lots available, the only lot available is the one that has 8K premium on.

I feel that I am getting cheated here, the first issue is, they didn’t tell that the house can’t fit on the lot I have originally selected when I signed the contract and the second issue is, they are forcing me to move to alternate lot (with no other choices).

Is this something I can fight to get my 8K back (10K premium paid – 2K builder already agreed to pay)? Does the builder is accountable for the contract we both signed to build the home on the original lot?

Thanks


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bradman said: <snip>
Is this something I can fight to get my 8K back (10K premium paid – 2K builder already agreed to pay)? Does the builder is accountable for the contract we both signed to build the home on the original lot?

Thanks

Sounds like you ought to consult a real estate lawyer. If it was me, I'd ask for all my money back, and cancel the whole thing. Not the type of outfit I would want to deal with.


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bradman said:
Is this something I can fight to get my 8K back (10K premium paid – 2K builder already agreed to pay)? Does the builder is accountable for the contract we both signed to build the home on the original lot?
Thanks

What does your contract say about this?


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newlin99 said:What does your contract say about this?

Green for you. To add to that.. read your contract. If it says nothing about this sort of situation, then tell the builder to F off, and request all your money back. Seeing as how most are struggling these days (unless you're perhaps in the midwest), they will likely try and play hardball. In this case, getting a lawyer should resolve the situation quickly. Best of luck.


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