cameron2003 said:Here's a house which I happen to know is on sale due to the owner (an attorney) committing suicide. I am not sure if the value has gone down since its a custom house in the neighbiorhood rather than one of the tract homes. But I was amazed how fast things are still selling. Its a large house but on a fairly busy street.

One week and pending sale, Silicon Valley

That is one ugly house.

I wouldn't pay $300k for that unless I already had a greater fool lined up.

Sorry if repost, but some scary numbers:

http://www.newyorkfed.org/regional/subprime.html

Dynamic Maps
These maps show conditions and density of owner-occupied subprime mortgage loans for the states, counties and zip codes in the United States. The maps are based on data for owner-occupied mortgage loans that have been securitized into a product that is categorized as subprime, based on the grade assigned to the security. The underlying data will be updated periodically.

Technical Appendix for Maps
The dynamic maps show conditions and density of owner-occupied subprime and alt-A mortgage loans for the states, counties and zip codes in the United States.

These maps are based on data for owner-occupied mortgage loans that have been placed into a security that has been assigned a grade of subprime or alt-A.

The underlying data do not represent every subprime mortgage or alt-A mortgage loan, whether in portfolio or in a security. We estimate that as of year-end 2007, there were a total of about 7 million subprime loans. The underlying data contained 3.3 million active subprime loans, suggesting a coverage ratio of 47 percent.

We estimate that about 25 percent of securitized subprime loans do not appear in this data set. By definition, all alt-A mortgages are securitized. Our best guess is that 2.4 million loans in this portion of the data cover more than 90 percent of the pools marketed as alt-A.

The loan data are drawn from reports by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System based on data from FirstAmerican CoreLogic, LoanPerformance Data. The number of housing units in each zip code is drawn from the U.S. Census 2000.

Compared with prime mortgages, subprime mortgages were typically made to borrowers with blemished credit history or who had provided only limited documentation of their income or assets. Originations of subprime mortgages fell sharply in the second half of 2007 and have been extremely light so far in 2008.

Loans marketed in the alt-A securities are typically higher-balanced loans made to borrowers who might have had past credit problems—but not severe enough to drop them into the subprime category—or who, for some reason, such as a desire not to document income, chose not to obtain a prime mortgage. Although the term “alt-A” applies technically only to securities, not mortgages, it has become common practice to refer to near-prime or nontraditional mortgages as “alt-A” loans.

Loans/1000 housing units means the number of owner-occupied loans per 1000 housing units in the area. This measures the density of loans in the area. As noted above, we estimate that these data cover 47 percent of subprime loans. It is reasonable to assume that the covered loans are representative of the entire subprime market but we can not say for sure how accurate that assumption is.

In foreclosure/1000 housing units means the number of owner-occupied loans per 1000 housing units where the lender has initiated the foreclosure process but has not completed it. The length of the foreclosure process varies by state, so two otherwise similar areas in different states could record different foreclosure densities if the foreclosure process takes longer in one state than the other. Thus, this field measures the stock of loans in foreclosure at a particular time, not the rate of completed foreclosures. At the end of 2007, there were just over 250,000 owner-occupied subprime loans in foreclosure in these data.

REO/1000 housing units means the number of real estate owned properties per 1000 housing units. REO status indicates that the lender has taken legal title to the property, through foreclosure or transference of title from the borrower. The file identified nearly 140,000 owner-occupied subprime loans in this status at the end of December of 2007.

Users interested in knowing more about REO loans can consult the Mortgage Bankers Association® list of property preservation contacts for numerous large mortgage servicers from around the country. See external links on the right-hand side of this page to access the list. While the list is not exhaustive, it provides a starting point for locating appropriate contacts who may control REO properties around the county.

Share ARMs (adjustable rate mortgages) means the share of owner-occupied loans that have a variable rate of interest that will be reset periodically in contrast to loans with interest rates fixed to maturity. ARMs are given special consideration because they traditionally have a higher likelihood of being delinquent or foreclosed upon than fixed rate loans. This is true in the prime, alt-A and subprime markets.

Share current shows the percentage of owner-occupied loans where the borrower’s payments are up to date. Loans in this category may have at some time been delinquent but as of the end of our period they are caught up. While slightly more than 60 percent of owner-occupied subprime loans were current in December 2007, only 50 percent of these loans missed a payment in 2007.

Share 90+ days overdue means that the loan payment is 90 or more days overdue but the loan is not in foreclosure or REO. The variable here is the share of owner-occupied subprime loans that are 90 or more days overdue. Loans are either current, 30 to 89 days overdue, 90 or more days overdue, in foreclosure or in REO.

Share in foreclosure means where the lender has initiated the foreclosure process but has not completed it. The length of the foreclosure process varies by state, so two otherwise equal areas in different states could record different foreclosure shares if the foreclosure process takes longer in one state than the other. Thus, this field measures the stock of loans in foreclosure at a particular time, not the rate of completed foreclosures.

Median combined LTV stands for the median Loan to Value ratio, that is, the ratio of the loan amount to the value of the property at origination. Some properties have multiple liens at origination because a second or “piggyback” loan was also executed. Our data capture only the information reported by the first lender. Only if the same lender originated and securitized a second lien is it captured in our combined LTV measure. Home equity lines of credit are not captured in our LTV ratios. The median LTV includes the second liens as noted above and is the value at which half the LTVs are higher and half the LTVs are lower.

Share low FICO and high LTV are here defined as the share of owner-occupied loans with both FICO scores below 620 and LTVs above 90 percent. Loans with these two attributes together are commonly considered among the riskiest of all loans. FICO is a credit bureau risk score. The higher the FICO score, the lower the likelihood of delinquency or default for a given loan. Also, everything else being equal, the lower the FICO score, the higher will be the cost of borrowing/interest rate.

For more information about the relationship between FICO score and mortgage interest rate see the external link on the right-hand side of this page. The FICO scores we note are the scores at the time the loans were originated. The average FICO score at origination for owner-occupied subprime loans in the data was just under 620 compared with slightly more than 700 for alt-A loans.

Share low or no documentation refers to the percentage of owner-occupied loans where the borrower provided little or no verification of income and assets in order to receive the mortgage.

Share ARMs resetting in 12 mo. means the share of adjustable rate mortgages where the rate of interest is scheduled to undergo its first rate reset within the next 12 months. Many subprime ARMs, especially so-called “2/28s” and "3/27s" carried initial rates below their fully indexed rate. The fully indexed rate on a subprime ARM is typically the six-month LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rate) plus the margin, typically about 6 percent for subprime loans. At their first rate reset, rates on subprime ARMs can move up sharply, depending on the current level of the six-month LIBOR.

Share late payment in 12 mo. means the share of owner-occupied loans where at least one payment has been late over the past 12 months. Difficulties in paying on time often precede more serious defaults.

Dealguy123 said:Wow, these numbers are just ugly. Housing sales of existing homes FELL from Feb to March! Has that happened over the last several yrs? March is really the first full month of the selling season and sales FELL in March?! Looking at the numbers from previous months I guessed that the trend down is accelerating, and that looks to be the case.

Marketwatch article

I don't remember sales FALLING from Feb to March last yr or previous, but maybe I'm wrong..? Does someone have the historical data somewhere where it can easily be looked up? Either way, this is pretty grim data. They're making a comparison month to month (which is stupid) and home sales still fell.. I'm sure YOY is hideous.Wow. I have never seen a more blatant misreading of such very simple numbers.

What exactly does the following quote from the article mean to you?

"seasonally adjusted annualized rate"

For those interested in the data without the youthful errors, the article at Marketwatch actually says the following:

-Sales have STABILIZED in a narrow range between 4.90 million and 5.10 million in the past seven months (annualized rates)

-Resales are down 19.3% YOY

-Resales fell 6.5% in the Midwest, fell 3.5% in the South, and ROSE 2.2% in the Northeast and West.

Dealguy, if you believe that a "seasonally adjusted, annualized rate" decrease of 2.0% month-on-month is significant (you must believe so because you took the time to make a big post about it, including emphases, exclamation points, and even a SHOCKED emoticon), do you also believe the 2.2% increase in the West is also significant?

If so, what do you you think that 2.2% increase means?

HumDoHamaraDo said:Manhattan is a Real Estate Island

The report out today shows an increase in sales and median prices in North East.

what about 90% of the non Northeast parts of US? can you shed some light?

mnsweeps said:HumDoHamaraDo said:Manhattan is a Real Estate Island

The report out today shows an increase in sales and median prices in North East.

what about 90% of the non Northeast parts of US? can you shed some light?
North East is a lot more than 10% of the US Real Estate Market.
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Here is the link
For March, sales were down 6.5 percent in the Midwest and 3.5 percent in the South but increased by 2.2 percent in the Northeast and 2.2 percent in the West.

The Northeast was the country's only region to experience a rise in median prices, which were up 4.6 percent compared with a year ago. Prices were down in all other regions of the country, dropping by 14.7 percent in the West, 7.1 percent in the South and 5.3 percent in the Midwest.
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Dealguy123 said:Sales historically RISE from Feb to March, as the big selling season kicks off....
A 2% decrease (THIS TIME OF YEAR! (emphasis for your understanding)) when I'm pretty sure historically we see an increase signals problems in the market. The absolute change is only -2%, but relative for the time of yr means the change is worse than usual.
Sales DID rise from Feb to March [by 20%]. Here are the raw numbers:
http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/files/EHSreport.pdf/$FILE/EHSreport.pdf
There were 312,000 sales in Feb and 374,000 in March. What decreased slightly was the ratio between the number of sales in March and the number of sales in February relative to historical norms.

I have no problems being wrong (we all are at times), it's not as bad as I thought, my bad.

Thanks for the data beethovengirl. I was wrong for incorrectly stating that absolute sales dropped, but the data is still ugly regardless. The YOY numbers are the big tell as the YOY change from absolute sales last yr to this yr fell ~22%, which is pretty substantial/dismal. There's no bottom in sight..

Dealguy123 said:but the data is still ugly regardless. The YOY numbers are the big tell as the YOY change from absolute sales last yr to this yr fell ~22%, which is pretty substantial/dismal. There's no bottom in sight..
I certainly agree that the data is ugly. The most telling number to look at is actually the number of months of inventory. The national inventory levels are at a 9.9 month supply, a slight increase over last month but down from a peak of 10.5 in October 2007. A balanced/healthy market is at a 6 month supply, so we've got a ways to go. [In my town, there is a 6-7 month supply]

beethovengirl said:NorCalSci said:Great post beethovengirl! You are so good at reading beyond headlines and having a more comprehensive understanding of the market.

I really appreciate your ability to read the data, bad or good, and at least be objective about it. That is truly refreshing.
Thank you! Unfortunately, my "objectivity" about stats makes me sad about the value of my own home. As some may recall, I bought a townhouse 9 months ago [went under contract 11 months ago]. The last comparable sale 2 weeks ago was for what I paid, and there are no comparables on the market currently. I was nervous about buying, but my husband wanted to buy, and the rent:mortgage payment ratio was neutral regarding whether to buy or rent [hence, prices have stagnated in my development, which is what I expected]. However, I did not anticipate the scope and depth of the problems in the national mortgage market, which will probably negatively impact my home's value, even if the ratio between rents and mortgage payments favors buying in my area. However, the worst aspect for me is that I hate my new home, and I feel trapped. Well, I hope the "trap" is transient. Over time you might find other options that give you flexibility to explore other alternatives. I have gone though a similar trap and made it out the other side. Hang in there!

Dealguy123 said:It seems only you and Cameron are the two people left grasping at the "my neighborhood will be fine" argument. Home prices ARE declining in SF... "
I must say you have quite a knack at spinning/taking things out of context and tearing that straw man to shreds!Funny.

Truly funny.