Dealguy123 said:cameron2003 said:Interesting. You assumed I meant you were jealous about where I lived, or jealous because you are not rich. Thats not what I meant at all. Freud would have a field day with you. Why did you assume those things? Why do you comment when I post news that is not as negative, but you do not comment when others post horrible local news. Why do you continue to say I deny a bubble in real estate when there have been multiple posts to the contrary just in the last 2 days? I don't expect you to answer these questions, but I pose them to you so you might reflect a bit. Awareness of your own biases (and we all have them) will help you see the world more clearly. Peace to you.

We're talking about real estate.. what else would you be implying that I be "jealous" about, your 18 yr old wife? Again, nothing but hot air to your posts.

I say you're in denial based on the language you use. You said "people can't pay their mortgage, this isn't a 'real' price bubble" or whatever nonsense you said. Pull your head out of your a$$ man. We had a TEXTBOOK bubble. See, that's called DE NILE. Of course certain areas will fare better than others, just like all markets and popping bubbles. If you own a stock that hasn't fallen much from the peak years ago, are you going to say "the stock market just had a small correction?" No. Bravo for the millionth time! No one's arguing that. Please.. spare me the psychobabble nonsense. You trying to do some sort of psychoanalysis over a message board is downright hilarious and simply retarded.

In case you haven't realized.. this thread is a big joke at this point. It's rather amusing how you still don't fully grasp the idea that we have a bubble. I'm not sure who's dumber.. me for responding to you or you for having your head buried in the sand.. Ah well, it doesn't make it any less amusing. lol

Dude, I never said you were jealous about anything. Its in your head, ok? Take a breath, its ok. And I never said there was no housing bubble. I only talk about where I live. One thing I agree with you on is that this thread is a joke though. And you are a sad clown.

cameron2003 said:pier0188 said:cameron2003 said:ajohnamous said:One guy whose house increased in value represents a statistical outlier and doesn't impact the fact that most houses have declined in value. It seems like you guys agree on this fact, so why not post the location and be done with it.

True value is only realized at the time of a sale, anything else is a guessing game, but why not just post the zip code and neighborhood and be done with it, its just an internet forum after all.

Because it doesnt matter. You seem reasonable, is it so hard to accept that different zipcodes have responded differently to the financial situation? And perhaps I live in one? To me it seems like no big deal. To them they even insist I provide some kind of documentation I live in the zipcode! Its amazing to me how they need to hold on to their beliefs, and thats what keeps me coming back, I think. As a student of human behavior I just want to understand it.

Because it is not logical. I know of *NO* area that hasn't been dramatically affected by the situation. I live in Stamford CT. I see that Darien, Greenwich, Westport, and any other area around here has been significantly affected. Why?

Because thinking that a neighborhood or zip code is an island is completely counter to human behavior and logic. If houses are going down everywhere else then people will seek housing outside of that island and find it cheaper in other places, provided those places make attractive value propositions (ie, if you live in a gilded road gated community area compared to a middle class neighborhood around it). The relative value of your island will decline and thus, the price.

So, if your average house was priced at, say, $1MM and every other house outside of it was priced at $750K. Then, those prices go down to $950K and $500K, people will go to the place that had a 33% discount versus the 5% because they perceive a better bang for the buck. Then, when people try to sell the houses at $950K, they will drop prices to come to market rates.

That is how economics and human behavior works. Utility curves, supply/demand, relative value, it is all there.

You haven't responded to my post. Why is that?

Jesus, I have responded to your post and everyone elses. How many posts do I need to write. Why would you want me to "prove" where I live if you don't think its possible to begin with. Do you want me to have you over for coffee or something? Its gone from a little interesting to irritating so I am not posting again for awhile. Have fun.

You never responded to my conditions. I want to know about where you live (not exactly) so that we can finally shut you up about "what is a bubble?" and "It's not affecting me here" trash. It's old, tiring, and pretty fricking stupid. You're the only person on the planet that denies the bubble, you're like David Lareah, Lawrence Yun, Jack Grubmann, Henry Blodgett, and Jim Cramer wrapped up into one ridiculous package.

cameron2003 said:pier0188 said:cameron2003 said:ajohnamous said:One guy whose house increased in value represents a statistical outlier and doesn't impact the fact that most houses have declined in value. It seems like you guys agree on this fact, so why not post the location and be done with it.

True value is only realized at the time of a sale, anything else is a guessing game, but why not just post the zip code and neighborhood and be done with it, its just an internet forum after all.

Because it doesnt matter. You seem reasonable, is it so hard to accept that different zipcodes have responded differently to the financial situation? And perhaps I live in one? To me it seems like no big deal. To them they even insist I provide some kind of documentation I live in the zipcode! Its amazing to me how they need to hold on to their beliefs, and thats what keeps me coming back, I think. As a student of human behavior I just want to understand it.

Because it is not logical. I know of *NO* area that hasn't been dramatically affected by the situation. I live in Stamford CT. I see that Darien, Greenwich, Westport, and any other area around here has been significantly affected. Why?

Because thinking that a neighborhood or zip code is an island is completely counter to human behavior and logic. If houses are going down everywhere else then people will seek housing outside of that island and find it cheaper in other places, provided those places make attractive value propositions (ie, if you live in a gilded road gated community area compared to a middle class neighborhood around it). The relative value of your island will decline and thus, the price.

So, if your average house was priced at, say, $1MM and every other house outside of it was priced at $750K. Then, those prices go down to $950K and $500K, people will go to the place that had a 33% discount versus the 5% because they perceive a better bang for the buck. Then, when people try to sell the houses at $950K, they will drop prices to come to market rates.

That is how economics and human behavior works. Utility curves, supply/demand, relative value, it is all there.

You haven't responded to my post. Why is that?

Jesus, I have responded to your post and everyone elses. How many posts do I need to write. Why would you want me to "prove" where I live if you don't think its possible to begin with. Do you want me to have you over for coffee or something? Its gone from a little interesting to irritating so I am not posting again for awhile. Have fun.

If I may add a little suggestion:

There is significant proof that there is (or was) a national housing bubble, for example the Case-Shiller index showed double digit price declines for almost all the metro areas it tracks, including the San Francisco bay area. Of course there is variation between different neighborhoods within the SF bay area, so if you want us to believe you that your neighborhood did not experience the same magnitude of decline as most neighborhoods in yuor metro area, then you can post your zip code and it will be simple for everyone to check if indeed your specific zip code did not experience a bubble like most other zipcodes in your area.

I suspect that your zipcode did indeed decline significantly, although maybe less then the average for the SF metro area, and it's hard for you to accept that fact. If I'm wrong then prove it by giving us your zip code and its median price statistics.

cameron2003 said:Its gone from a little interesting to irritating so I am not posting again for awhile. Have fun.

And he runs away.. Wouldn't be the first time if I recall correctly..

Is this whole several hundred pages thread to entertain cameron who does not get it or lives in "No RE buble oasis"?
How about Part 4 - "housing bubble popped, what (when) is next?"

MarkM said:Yes, I confess that was my other motivation to get everyone to drop the whole "what's cameron's zip?" interlude

Before this get locked - Cameron posted his city dozens of times in the past, it is Cupertino in Silicon Valley, that's enough for research, fire away.

From the anecdotical evidences (half of my co-workers live in there) prices did drop, but not dramatically, maybe 10% or so - let's post the real stats.

To Cameron's credit he does live in the bubble, Cupertino had fired better than the most other Bay Area cities in the last 20 years; I suspect the downhill started in there only recently. It has a way to go, but it will remain a very desirable 'hood.