ifyouhavetoask said:America will be fine in the long run, but we need to go through some serious pain the the short term, to equalize the credit-fueled stupidity of recent times.Could you be anymore vague?

Oh wait, I get it, its a doomsday prediction, you can't offer real timeframes or make any serious attempts to say what will happen because then when it doesn't happen you will be proven wrong.

Best to stick with the ole "something bad will happen sometime soon"...that's always a winner.

kamalktk said:seeing as how Japan has triple our debt, and the top debtor nations look like this linkage

The United States is the most indebted country in the world. No other country in
the world owes 9 trillion bucks. As a percentage of GDP, we are better off, but the
national debt continues to rise and shows no sign of slowing down.

Do you understand how vast the United States economy is? The 2006 GDP was 13 trillion (US) dollars. The European Union (27 countries, 494 million citizens)had a GDP of $14.5 trillion. I'm amazed that you "think" you can escape the implications of a U.S. economic collapse by opening a savings account in Euros. Here's a thought for you: if the United States economy collapses, the world economy is going with it. And by the way, terrorism is a GLOBAL threat, but perhaps you haven't peeked out from beneath your tinfoil hat since 2001 and might have missed the attacks in London, Madrid, and Bali, to name a few.

pjm311 said:Do you understand how vast the United States economy is? The 2006 GDP was 13 trillion (US) dollars. The European Union (27 countries, 494 million citizens)had a GDP of $14.5 trillion. I'm amazed that you "think" you can escape the implications of a U.S. economic collapse by opening a savings account in Euros. Here's a thought for you: if the United States economy collapses, the world economy is going with it. And by the way, terrorism is a GLOBAL threat, but perhaps you haven't peeked out from beneath your tinfoil hat since 2001 and might have missed the attacks in London, Madrid, and Bali, to name a few.

Yes I know the US economy is vast. You aren't saying anything I don't already know.
But either way the US economy can collapse and it could happen in a couple decades,
if not sooner. Things are not going well and the US is slowly declining. We are losing
our status as the world's superpower and things are probably not gonna be very pretty.

And don't talk to me about global terrorism. I have repeated my points over and over, trying
to be clear, but you just don't get it. The EU and China are not bogged down in Iraq and also
are not interested in a military conflict with Iran. I doubt the US will invade Iran but with
Bush and Cheney you never know. Furthermore, like I said 10 times, Asia and the EU are rising
quickly and will force us to share our place at the top, especially as we face a shortage of skilled
workers.

If you follow the news closely and read about what is going on, it's obvious that the US is
starting to crumble under its own weight. Not to mention that our international reputation is in
ruins. We used to have several allies but now we only have very few left. For the millionth time,
I am not predicting a doomsday, I am just pointing out how obvious it is that our country is definitely on the wrong track and we will have to pay dearly for that.

TheThinker said:But either way the US economy can collapse and it could happen in a couple decades,if not sooner.Any economy "can" collapse. Saying it "could" happen in a couple of decades makes it sound like you lack confidence in your own predictions.

Things are not going wellBy what quantitative measure? I think things are going great.

and the US is slowly declining.Really? I hadn't noticed.

We are losing our status as the world's superpower Says who? People magazine? Who is the new superpower? Do tell.

things are probably not gonna be very pretty.There you go again with "probably". Not very sure of yourself, are you?

Things are far from perfect in the US but that has always been the case; every generation seems to think that things are going downhill and the US will fall apart and yet here we still are. I know, I know...this time its different.

jayK said: So how do you propose to mitigate that pain, other than keeping a diversified portfolio, which you should be doing anyway?

By learning to be self-sufficient, and not relying on others (including the government) to do everything for me.

Stop and think how much you rely on others to get you through your day. Find ways around that, and you'll be a happier and wealthier person.

ifyouhavetoask said:jayK said: So how do you propose to mitigate that pain, other than keeping a diversified portfolio, which you should be doing anyway?

By learning to be self-sufficient, and not relying on others (including the government) to do everything for me.

Stop and think how much you rely on others to get you through your day. Find ways around that, and you'll be a happier and wealthier person.

So when can I expect to see you build your own roads? Your own cars? Your own house out of the materials that you yourself got from your own land? Are you only eating the fruits and vegetables that you've grown on your little plot? Is your cow providing you with your milk? And the oil you refine yourself to make it into gasoline? Let me guess, you put your own computer together out of the parts you soldered yourself and you are using the electricity from the windmill you built yourself? And I sure hope you live by yourself and have no kids, because you wouldn't want to depend on a husband or those rascal kids!

What you are saying here is absolute nonsense and has nothing to do neither with the topic, nor reality.

ifyouhavetoask said:The fact that you don't understand the relevance of AOR's in relation to the coming economic problems, tells me that you don't understand the severity of the problems we face.
For the past 5 years, the credit faucet has been wide open in the USA. It's about to be turned completely off.

The fact that you think AOR is a prime example of trouble ahead, tells me that you have little understanding of basic economics. Private equity companies wield much larger amounts of money than all AORs put together, yet you don't site them as an example? If anyone's default would be noticeable, than Blackstone alone could cause more than any of the AORers put together. What about yen-carry trade? You are using vague "you'll see" and "AOR is at fault" statements because you are unable to provide any other logical explanations. With so many factors to a healthy economy out there, all you can talk about is AOR and personal loan default?! Please, I can read CNN headlines myself.

For a supposed educator, you sure have limited knowledge to spread.

RushnRockt said:Private equity companies wield much larger amounts of money than all AORs put together, yet you don't site them as an example? If anyone's default would be noticeable, than Blackstone alone could cause more than any of the AORers put together. What about yen-carry trade? You are using vague "you'll see" and "AOR is at fault" statements because you are unable to provide any other logical explanations. With so many factors to a healthy economy out there, all you can talk about is AOR and personal loan default?! Please, I can read CNN headlines myself.

For a supposed educator, you sure have limited knowledge to spread.

1) Google "Bear Stearns" news. Read about it. If you think that's an isolated incident, you need to read much, much more about CDO's.

2) The Fed is in a corner. The dollar is collapsing. If you're not aware of that, read the news.

If the Fed raises rates to defend the dollar, housing and the rest of the economy go into a complete tailspin. If they cut rates to keep the economy going, the dollar plunges sub 80, and we start wallpapering our bathrooms with $20's.

Ben has to do something, and soon. Which will it be? The bad choice or the bad choice?

3) AOR's are not "at fault" for the economy's problems. Rather, they are a perverse side effect of too-loose credit standards, resulting in too much unsecured credit being given to unworthy debtors.

Think of it this way: A few years ago, when people with 560 credit scores were getting 100% mortgages, did you think it was a good idea? Did you think it would bring problems to our economy down the road? Did you think it would result in the first YoY decline in housing prices in the USA since the Great Depression?

Now, stop and think of the end game of lending $250,000, unsecured, to someone who CLAIMS to make $200,000/year, based on nothing more than a three digit FICO score. Or, lending $50,000 of student loan money to a 22 year old with a bachelor's degree from a state school? There isn't even overvalued real estate to back up that kind of debt.

4) If you think the economy is "healthy", you need to stop listening to CNBC. The economy is so far from healthy, it's absurd.

I believe you have me confused with someone else. I am not an educator.

ifyouhavetoask said:4) If you think the economy is "healthy", you need to stop listening to CNBC. The economy is so far from healthy, it's absurd.


Want to quote me where I said it's healthy? Just as usual, you assume.

Nevertheless, you still did not even try explaining how all that will lead to at least 15 years of heavy duty depression, with a quarter of the country going jobless unless government finds more dams to build or gets in a fight with Germany and Japan. Recession? Possibly. Fifteen year long depression that is worse than The Great Depression as you claim? Just because not everyone can live in their own house now? Right.

ifyouhavetoask said: I am not an educator.

I just had to see you say that. So true.

RushnRockt said:You should not confuse the concepts of "developed nation" with a "dominant economy." China will take more than one Olympic games to become truly developed, yet a hick up in it's economy will be noticed just as much as a hick up in US economy. And it's influence will continue to increase, not always real, sometimes perceived, nevertheless it is still possible to be "dominant" yet not fully "developed."

As far as who can pick up the slack, there is no need for it to be one country. Despite all the the trouble, EU's inclusion of Eastern European countries means they have much more room for growth. While Western Europe obviously tapped out it's capabilities of super fast growth, Easter bloc has not truly even started.

I understand. Dominance and development coincide but differ. Arguably, development does not necessarily end, nor does dominance.

As for the original question, continental natural catastrophe and nuclear war remain the only viable threats to the predominance of the United States. The US has not fought a war on domestic soil since the War of 1812. It has never defaulted. It has encountered many economic crises yet progressed. It maintains many alliances worldwide, with the lesser powers. I could conceive of a wider distribution to power, that more states within and beyond the OECD achieve more of it. I do not conceive that any single state might soon outrank the US in the international hierarchy.

Do not immediately equate the billions of people in China and India to billion-person markets, workforces, or even citizenry. The demographic, cultural, and political forces might be too great for either state to ever approximate the US. The Soviet Union had a greater populace and more territory than the US, yet the modern state of Russia has deformed from the Second World into a state like that now must manipulate energy for power, like OPEC.