The US is still the richest and most powerful country in the world, and contrary to what some people say, there is no reason to panic. But we have to plan and think about this country's future. The European Union is getting stronger and more modern. The Euro is now the standard world currency, not the dollar. (The yen and yuan are important too, but the Euro does has the advantage of being used in over a dozen countries).
Asia is becoming a very serious competitor as well. Not to mention how the US owes a lot of money to China and Japan.
I have already read the previous posts and I know that strong economic growth can balance out a high national debt. I also know that it is not in China's best interests to dump its treasury bonds. But looking at history, every superpower has declined and fallen. The US will be no exception, most likely.
There is a lot that can happen to ruin the American economy. The oil squeeze, tougher competition from Asia and Europe, war with Iran, several major terrorist attacks, a lack of skilled workers due to baby boomer retirement, etc.
I repeat that I doubt anything major will happen soon. I think the US will be alright for the time being. But it would be foolish to laugh off these concerns and believe that the US will continue to thrive forever. There are some very serious challenges and we shouldn't underestimate them. What do you guys think? I am not trying to make any political point and I'm not looking for any partisan attacks or bashing. Whether you are right-wing, centrist, or left-wing, we all need to watch out for what might happen.
One more thing, would it be wise to create a savings account in Europe, and holding on to some Euros? It's a strong currency and is probably the least likely to fall completely in the event of a major global recession. (altho it would decline to an extent as well, of course)
user12345 said: "The Euro is now the standard world currency, not the dollar. "
Since when ?
red for cluelessness !
It's debatable, that's true. What I mean is that the US dollar used to be the most influential and widely used currency. But now, many Asian countries, as well as many of the OPEC countries, prefer to work with Euros rather than dollars. The Euro is much stronger than the dollar and it can be used in over a dozen countries. The dollar, on the other hand, is falling out of favor.
Either way, what I'm saying is that although we have no reason to panic and will probably see a strong US economy for the next decade, we must start planning for what comes next, because the serious challenges are many. Oil is getting more and more expensive, and could very well go past $100 per barrel as demand exceeds supply.
The chaos in Iraq and a possible conflict in Iran don't really help our economy much either. Not to mention increased competition and other challenges.
Is it not wise to play it safe and try to protect yourself from a possible US collapse? Buying Euros is one solution but there are other things too. Any suggestions or feedback?
czarandy said: I would just split investments 50/50 between US/international.
If the dollar falls your international investments will protect you and if not they should still give good returns.
Good answer, green for you! By all means, I will continue investing in US stocks and funds. I don't think anything bad will happen in the near future. All I was saying was putting away part of your investments in international markets or savings accounts, as a backup. Maybe 80 percent US and 20 percent international. (altho currently it would be wise to invest much more internationally instead of domestically, being that international markets are growing much faster than the US right now)
evlemonkfish
Member
posted: Jul. 17, 2007 @ 1:09a
Fifty years is a long time for assessment. Mostly likely there will 3-4 bear markets in the US, and hopefully double the number (or triple the duration) of bull markets.
Despite our federal defecit and current account defecit issues, America still has, by far, the greatest pool of financial ingenuity in the world. We've always paid our debts. No matter how bad the economic collapse that would occur, the nation can find a way to restructure debt and obligations and get put on the right track in 3-4 years. With the exception of FDR's 8 year Great Depression, that's how it has worked time and time again. But it only works if Wall Street is given freedom to do its magic.
The greatest threat to any recovery is the super-welfare state or wacky ideas that Chairman Mao proposed in the name of self-sufficiency. By the way, is anyone going on Chairman John Edward's poverty bus?
chrisatspfld
Member
posted: Jul. 17, 2007 @ 1:29a
If prosperity and progress for the United States would subside, then would it migrate elsewhere? Would another region of the world benefit at the loss of the US?
Besides the other nations in the developed, stable economies (G8, OECD, etc.), the rest of the world does not present much of an alternative to the current dominant economies. Some other states on the near periphery of the developed economies (China, Mexico, Eastern Europe, etc.) might also become "developed", but much of the world, in Latin America, Africa, and Asia, should require many more years of development, politically and economically.
TheThinker said: user12345 said: "The Euro is now the standard world currency, not the dollar. "
Since when ?
red for cluelessness !
It's debatable, that's true. What I mean is that the US dollar used to be the most influential and widely used currency. But now, many Asian countries, as well as many of the OPEC countries, prefer to work with Euros rather than dollars. The Euro is much stronger than the dollar and it can be used in over a dozen countries. The dollar, on the other hand, is falling out of favor.
LOL 70% of OPEC money is held in British pounds. So not sure where you are getting your information from. China is only major centeral bank which huge reserves that has stated they are diversifying there dollar holding into Euro as Japan is still holding US Dollars which is only other country with huge reserves and surpluses. China is only doing so becaue of the weakness of the US Dollar. Back in the mid to late 70's and early 80's same thing happened and everyone was claiming the dollar was no longer to going "World Reserve Currency" and comidities would no longer be traded in dollars by 1986-87 that talk was non existant. Many countries around world moved reserves from US Dollars into Swiss Francs and Britsh Pounds back in mid to lates 70's and early 80's when the dollar was weak as hedge to protect there reserves. Once the dollar start to recover you will see all these central banks move back to US Dollar again as a hedge as well.
You cant personally blame contries for trying to protect the value of there reserves.
chrisatspfld said: If prosperity and progress for the United States would subside, then would it migrate elsewhere? Would another region of the world benefit at the loss of the US? Besides the other nations in the developed, stable economies (G8, OECD, etc.), the rest of the world does not present much of an alternative to the current dominant economies. Some other states on the near periphery of the developed economies (China, Mexico, Eastern Europe, etc.) might also become "developed", but much of the world, in Latin America, Africa, and Asia, should require many more years of development, politically and economically.
You should not confuse the concepts of "developed nation" with a "dominant economy." China will take more than one Olympic games to become truly developed, yet a hick up in it's economy will be noticed just as much as a hick up in US economy. And it's influence will continue to increase, not always real, sometimes perceived, nevertheless it is still possible to be "dominant" yet not fully "developed."
As far as who can pick up the slack, there is no need for it to be one country. Despite all the the trouble, EU's inclusion of Eastern European countries means they have much more room for growth. While Western Europe obviously tapped out it's capabilities of super fast growth, Easter bloc has not truly even started.
evlemonkfish said: Fifty years is a long time for assessment. Mostly likely there will 3-4 bear markets in the US, and hopefully double the number (or triple the duration) of bull markets.
I said 50 years, but economic collapse could happen much sooner, perhaps in 15 or 20 years. Either way, this isn't about bear markets and bull markets. I'm talking about a very serious downfall that would cause much hardship, lasting for several years. Something as bad as the Great Depression of the 30's.
It's true that the US benefits from tremendous resources and a lot of clout. But as history shows, all superpowers will fall. As strong as we are economically and militarily, there is a lot that can happen to seriously dent our power. We depend on oil for energy and well as for making plastic materials. But it's obvious that as global demand rises, it will exceed the supply. China and India have a rising middle class that will buy more oil for their cars and lifestyles. Those 2 nations have over a billion residents each!
There are other reasons to worry, as I mentioned before. War with Iran, major terrorist attacks, increased competition, etc. We should never overestimate our abilities. We are a strong nation but by no means are we immune to serious economic catastrophe. As China and the EU become wealthier and more advanced, we will have to share the profits and the influence. We will no longer be the only superpower, but rather one out of 3. That's a fair thing, they have a right to be powerful too. But naturally our wealth and clout will go down as others rise and share our place at the top.
ifyouhavetoask
Senior Member - 1K
posted: Jul. 17, 2007 @ 5:21a
TheThinker said:
I said 50 years, but economic collapse could happen much sooner, perhaps in 15 or 20 years. Either way, this isn't about bear markets and bull markets. I'm talking about a very serious downfall that would cause much hardship, lasting for several years. Something as bad as the Great Depression of the 30's.
Something worse than the 1930's is coming this way pretty darn soon. Anyone with a shred of common sense can see that. However, you're not going to find too many FW members who see the signs. Too many Kool Aid drinkers around here, with delusions of getting rich with AOR's and $100 offers to open checking accounts.
The Fed made a decision to try to print us out of the corner we're in, mostly because that was their only option. It won't work, and is only making matters worse.
America will be fine in the long run, but we need to go through some serious pain the the short term, to equalize the credit-fueled stupidity of recent times.
Something worse than the 1930's is coming this way pretty darn soon. Anyone with a shred of common sense can see that. However, you're not going to find too many FW members who see the signs. Too many Kool Aid drinkers around here, with delusions of getting rich with AOR's and $100 offers to open checking accounts.
The Fed made a decision to try to print us out of the corner we're in, mostly because that was their only option. It won't work, and is only making matters worse.
America will be fine in the long run, but we need to go through some serious pain the the short term, to equalize the credit-fueled stupidity of recent times.
Green for you. I'm not an alarmist and don't see any reason to panic but I definitely see trouble ahead, and it won't be pretty. Although Greenspan was a smart Fed chairman and had to do what it took to keep things under control, I think a lot of the credit decisions could bite is hard in the coming years.
But regardless of whether you love Greenspan or not, we need to be realistic and be cautious about the hardships we may very well have to face.
seeing as how Japan has triple our debt, and the top debtor nations look like this linkage
25 Germany 66.80 2006 est. 29 France 64.70 2006 est. 30 United States 64.70 2005 est.
Two of the 3 major Euro nations are worse off than the US.
6 Italy 107.80 2006 est. 7 Greece 104.60 2006 est. 10 Belgium 90.30 2006 est. 23 Portugal 67.40 2006 est.
Other large Euro nations worse off than us.
I'm not too worried.
jayK
Senior Member - JayK
posted: Jul. 17, 2007 @ 10:49a
Asteroid colliding with Earth: Unlikely, but still very possible.
jayK
Senior Member - JayK
posted: Jul. 17, 2007 @ 10:51a
ifyouhavetoask said: America will be fine in the long run, but we need to go through some serious pain the the short term, to equalize the credit-fueled stupidity of recent times.So how do you propose to mitigate that pain, other than keeping a diversified portfolio, which you should be doing anyway?
ifyouhavetoask said: Something worse than the 1930's is coming this way pretty darn soon. Anyone with a shred of common sense can see that.
I will go ahead and guess that you weren't around for 1930's, because the times were pretty darn bad and that doesn't mesh with your assertions that it's a short term "bad" times. Your "1930's" started in 1927 at the latest and did not end until WW2 came along, that's not very short term.
And please leave AOR out of this, it has ABSOLUTELY nothing to do with the topic or how people perceive current economic situation. As opposed to what you'd like to believe, you get most of your red for being off-topic (and unnecessarily combative), not for the actual opinion on the subject.
TheThinker said: ........... But looking at history, every superpower has declined and fallen...................
if you remember, Gorbachov had large birth mark on his forehead. Some traced it and saw 666, the "mark of the beast" and concluded that he was the antichrist and that the Soviet Union was going to cause the destruction of the world
jayK said: ifyouhavetoask said: America will be fine in the long run, but we need to go through some serious pain the the short term, to equalize the credit-fueled stupidity of recent times.So how do you propose to mitigate that pain, other than keeping a diversified portfolio, which you should be doing anyway? I don't know about you but I plan on monopolizing the last remaining gas supplies with my ragtag army of crazy bloodthirty people driving vehicles with spikes/guns welded on them. Well, that and ruling Bartertown.
ifyouhavetoask said: America will be fine in the long run, but we need to go through some serious pain the the short term, to equalize the credit-fueled stupidity of recent times.Could you be anymore vague?
Oh wait, I get it, its a doomsday prediction, you can't offer real timeframes or make any serious attempts to say what will happen because then when it doesn't happen you will be proven wrong.
Best to stick with the ole "something bad will happen sometime soon"...that's always a winner.
TheThinker said: I repeat that I doubt anything major will happen soon. I think the US will be alright for the time being. But it would be foolish to laugh off these concerns and believe that the US will continue to thrive forever. There are some very serious challenges and we shouldn't underestimate them. What do you guys think? I am not trying to make any political point and I'm not looking for any partisan attacks or bashing. Whether you are right-wing, centrist, or left-wing, we all need to watch out for what might happen.In which time in the past don't we have something serious to worry about? Ever?
Speaking of fat and (un)happy Americans, I don't see a lot of new comer constantly worry about the always impending doom. They get busy, work hard, and provide for their family while those who had stuff came so easily worry about when the good time will end because deep down they know they don't deserve it.
kamalktk said: seeing as how Japan has triple our debt, and the top debtor nations look like this linkage
The United States is the most indebted country in the world. No other country in the world owes 9 trillion bucks. As a percentage of GDP, we are better off, but the national debt continues to rise and shows no sign of slowing down.
jayK said: Asteroid colliding with Earth: Unlikely, but still very possible.
Well if I were the President, I would take the asteroid threat seriously and increase funding and resources for asteroid detection and diversion. Even tho the chances of an asteroid collision are small, the US has the resources to further study the problem so we might as well do that. We already do have some asteroid watch groups but it's not enough. Call me paranoid but society is notorious for fixing problems AFTER the damage has already been done.
But back to the original topic, I'm not predicting a doomsday or end of civilization. All I am saying is that given such serious problems as corrupt leadership in Washington, war in Iraq and Iran, terrorism, increased competition from Asia and the EU, and a shortage of highly skilled workers, it is reasonable to be cautious and worry about what lies ahead for the US economy.
That is why I suggest getting an EU savings account or investing in some foreign markets as well as here at home. That way, if the US economy should collapse, we can still count on the foreign investments. Granted, the entire world economy would be effected if something really bad happens to the US, but I think the Euro especially can retain most of its strength and clout in the world.
pjm311
Tired Member
posted: Jul. 17, 2007 @ 7:43p
Do you understand how vast the United States economy is? The 2006 GDP was 13 trillion (US) dollars. The European Union (27 countries, 494 million citizens)had a GDP of $14.5 trillion. I'm amazed that you "think" you can escape the implications of a U.S. economic collapse by opening a savings account in Euros. Here's a thought for you: if the United States economy collapses, the world economy is going with it. And by the way, terrorism is a GLOBAL threat, but perhaps you haven't peeked out from beneath your tinfoil hat since 2001 and might have missed the attacks in London, Madrid, and Bali, to name a few.
TheThinker said: kamalktk said: seeing as how Japan has triple our debt, and the top debtor nations look like this linkage
The United States is the most indebted country in the world. No other country in the world owes 9 trillion bucks. As a percentage of GDP, we are better off, but the national debt continues to rise and shows no sign of slowing down. Per Capita is much more important when judging currency. Your Troll-Fu is weak and withers in the light of facts.
Also I love how you're giving red to everyone that doesn't agree with you too.
pjm311 said: Do you understand how vast the United States economy is? The 2006 GDP was 13 trillion (US) dollars. The European Union (27 countries, 494 million citizens)had a GDP of $14.5 trillion. I'm amazed that you "think" you can escape the implications of a U.S. economic collapse by opening a savings account in Euros. Here's a thought for you: if the United States economy collapses, the world economy is going with it. And by the way, terrorism is a GLOBAL threat, but perhaps you haven't peeked out from beneath your tinfoil hat since 2001 and might have missed the attacks in London, Madrid, and Bali, to name a few.
Yes I know the US economy is vast. You aren't saying anything I don't already know. But either way the US economy can collapse and it could happen in a couple decades, if not sooner. Things are not going well and the US is slowly declining. We are losing our status as the world's superpower and things are probably not gonna be very pretty.
And don't talk to me about global terrorism. I have repeated my points over and over, trying to be clear, but you just don't get it. The EU and China are not bogged down in Iraq and also are not interested in a military conflict with Iran. I doubt the US will invade Iran but with Bush and Cheney you never know. Furthermore, like I said 10 times, Asia and the EU are rising quickly and will force us to share our place at the top, especially as we face a shortage of skilled workers.
If you follow the news closely and read about what is going on, it's obvious that the US is starting to crumble under its own weight. Not to mention that our international reputation is in ruins. We used to have several allies but now we only have very few left. For the millionth time, I am not predicting a doomsday, I am just pointing out how obvious it is that our country is definitely on the wrong track and we will have to pay dearly for that.
rileymartin
Senior Member
posted: Jul. 17, 2007 @ 8:22p
jayK said: Asteroid colliding with Earth: Unlikely, but still very possible.
me getting laid: highly unlikely but still very possible
TheThinker said: But either way the US economy can collapse and it could happen in a couple decades,if not sooner.Any economy "can" collapse. Saying it "could" happen in a couple of decades makes it sound like you lack confidence in your own predictions.
Things are not going wellBy what quantitative measure? I think things are going great.
and the US is slowly declining.Really? I hadn't noticed.
We are losing our status as the world's superpower Says who? People magazine? Who is the new superpower? Do tell.
things are probably not gonna be very pretty.There you go again with "probably". Not very sure of yourself, are you?
Things are far from perfect in the US but that has always been the case; every generation seems to think that things are going downhill and the US will fall apart and yet here we still are. I know, I know...this time its different.
ifyouhavetoask
Senior Member - 1K
posted: Jul. 17, 2007 @ 8:35p
RushnRockt said: ifyouhavetoask said: Something worse than the 1930's is coming this way pretty darn soon. Anyone with a shred of common sense can see that.
I will go ahead and guess that you weren't around for 1930's, because the times were pretty darn bad and that doesn't mesh with your assertions that it's a short term "bad" times. Your "1930's" started in 1927 at the latest and did not end until WW2 came along, that's not very short term.
And please leave AOR out of this, it has ABSOLUTELY nothing to do with the topic or how people perceive current economic situation. As opposed to what you'd like to believe, you get most of your red for being off-topic (and unnecessarily combative), not for the actual opinion on the subject.
The fact that you don't understand the relevance of AOR's in relation to the coming economic problems, tells me that you don't understand the severity of the problems we face.
For the past 5 years, the credit faucet has been wide open in the USA. It's about to be turned completely off.
Americans have become addicted to easy credit. AOR's are an example of that easy credit. Banks have been willing to lend insane amounts of unsecured money to people who aren't worthy of taking on that debt.
The lack of that easy credit will send shockwaves not only through the economy, but through our entire society.
If you think sub-prime mortgages are bad, just wait until the real fun begins as they try to unwind the Alt-A, Prime, credit card, and student loan defaults.
You haven't seen anything yet.
ifyouhavetoask
Senior Member - 1K
posted: Jul. 17, 2007 @ 8:42p
jayK said: So how do you propose to mitigate that pain, other than keeping a diversified portfolio, which you should be doing anyway?
By learning to be self-sufficient, and not relying on others (including the government) to do everything for me.
Stop and think how much you rely on others to get you through your day. Find ways around that, and you'll be a happier and wealthier person.
Things are not going wellBy what quantitative measure? I think things are going great.
and the US is slowly declining.Really? I hadn't noticed.
Things are going great? Dude I don't know what you're smoking. Our national debt has grown tremendously and the middle class is dying out because the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. Our reputation in the world has been ruined and we are no longer trusted and admired. True, we have always had enemies and haters, but now its at an extreme.
We spend more money on health care than any country in the world. A big chunk of our GDP goes to health care and that is hurting both business and consumers. We are lacking skilled workers and we are bogged down in a costly and deadly mess in the Middle East.
So don't tell me things are going well because things are way off track and the large majority of American people agree about that. We have dug ourselves into very deep holes and our wealth and military can not always bail us out. Wake up for a second and look at what is left of our country. We're not really even a democracy since the oil companies and the drug lobbyists make the laws. It's so obvious that things are way off track, stop being so ignorant!
ifyouhavetoask said: jayK said: So how do you propose to mitigate that pain, other than keeping a diversified portfolio, which you should be doing anyway?
By learning to be self-sufficient, and not relying on others (including the government) to do everything for me.
Stop and think how much you rely on others to get you through your day. Find ways around that, and you'll be a happier and wealthier person.
So when can I expect to see you build your own roads? Your own cars? Your own house out of the materials that you yourself got from your own land? Are you only eating the fruits and vegetables that you've grown on your little plot? Is your cow providing you with your milk? And the oil you refine yourself to make it into gasoline? Let me guess, you put your own computer together out of the parts you soldered yourself and you are using the electricity from the windmill you built yourself? And I sure hope you live by yourself and have no kids, because you wouldn't want to depend on a husband or those rascal kids!
What you are saying here is absolute nonsense and has nothing to do neither with the topic, nor reality.
ifyouhavetoask said: The fact that you don't understand the relevance of AOR's in relation to the coming economic problems, tells me that you don't understand the severity of the problems we face. For the past 5 years, the credit faucet has been wide open in the USA. It's about to be turned completely off.
The fact that you think AOR is a prime example of trouble ahead, tells me that you have little understanding of basic economics. Private equity companies wield much larger amounts of money than all AORs put together, yet you don't site them as an example? If anyone's default would be noticeable, than Blackstone alone could cause more than any of the AORers put together. What about yen-carry trade? You are using vague "you'll see" and "AOR is at fault" statements because you are unable to provide any other logical explanations. With so many factors to a healthy economy out there, all you can talk about is AOR and personal loan default?! Please, I can read CNN headlines myself.
For a supposed educator, you sure have limited knowledge to spread.
TheThinker said: We're not really even a democracy since the oil companies and the drug lobbyists make the laws. It's so obvious that things are way off track, stop being so ignorant! We are not and have never been a democracy, we are a republic. Ignorance indeed.
ifyouhavetoask
Senior Member - 1K
posted: Jul. 17, 2007 @ 9:23p
RushnRockt said: Private equity companies wield much larger amounts of money than all AORs put together, yet you don't site them as an example? If anyone's default would be noticeable, than Blackstone alone could cause more than any of the AORers put together. What about yen-carry trade? You are using vague "you'll see" and "AOR is at fault" statements because you are unable to provide any other logical explanations. With so many factors to a healthy economy out there, all you can talk about is AOR and personal loan default?! Please, I can read CNN headlines myself.
For a supposed educator, you sure have limited knowledge to spread.
1) Google "Bear Stearns" news. Read about it. If you think that's an isolated incident, you need to read much, much more about CDO's.
2) The Fed is in a corner. The dollar is collapsing. If you're not aware of that, read the news.
If the Fed raises rates to defend the dollar, housing and the rest of the economy go into a complete tailspin. If they cut rates to keep the economy going, the dollar plunges sub 80, and we start wallpapering our bathrooms with $20's.
Ben has to do something, and soon. Which will it be? The bad choice or the bad choice?
3) AOR's are not "at fault" for the economy's problems. Rather, they are a perverse side effect of too-loose credit standards, resulting in too much unsecured credit being given to unworthy debtors.
Think of it this way: A few years ago, when people with 560 credit scores were getting 100% mortgages, did you think it was a good idea? Did you think it would bring problems to our economy down the road? Did you think it would result in the first YoY decline in housing prices in the USA since the Great Depression?
Now, stop and think of the end game of lending $250,000, unsecured, to someone who CLAIMS to make $200,000/year, based on nothing more than a three digit FICO score. Or, lending $50,000 of student loan money to a 22 year old with a bachelor's degree from a state school? There isn't even overvalued real estate to back up that kind of debt.
4) If you think the economy is "healthy", you need to stop listening to CNBC. The economy is so far from healthy, it's absurd.
I believe you have me confused with someone else. I am not an educator.
kamalktk said: TheThinker said: We're not really even a democracy since the oil companies and the drug lobbyists make the laws. It's so obvious that things are way off track, stop being so ignorant! We are not and have never been a democracy, we are a republic. Ignorance indeed.
Yes I know that. But the US is supposedly a democratic country where the people are put first. Talk to most Americans and they will tell you that we are a nation of freedom and democracy. Furthermore, the government always talks about spreading democracy throughout the world.
All those things are not correct. Sure, we cast a vote every 2 or 4 years, but all the major candidates depend on big contributions and lots of money. The big money comes from powerful donors who want things their way, which is usually not in the people's best interest. The drug companies, private contractors, oil companies, etc. have so much influence and benefit so much from lobbying that one has to wonder why we talk about this "great land of freedom" when it's clear that the wealthy and the special interests always end up getting the biggest and most disproportionate piece of the cake.
ifyouhavetoask said: 4) If you think the economy is "healthy", you need to stop listening to CNBC. The economy is so far from healthy, it's absurd.
Want to quote me where I said it's healthy? Just as usual, you assume.
Nevertheless, you still did not even try explaining how all that will lead to at least 15 years of heavy duty depression, with a quarter of the country going jobless unless government finds more dams to build or gets in a fight with Germany and Japan. Recession? Possibly. Fifteen year long depression that is worse than The Great Depression as you claim? Just because not everyone can live in their own house now? Right.
ifyouhavetoask said: I am not an educator.
I just had to see you say that. So true.
jayK
Senior Member - JayK
posted: Jul. 17, 2007 @ 9:59p
ifyouhavetoask said: jayK said: So how do you propose to mitigate that pain, other than keeping a diversified portfolio, which you should be doing anyway? By learning to be self-sufficient, and not relying on others (including the government) to do everything for me.Can you describe what steps you've taken to become self-sufficient?
And FWIW, IYHTA is not an educator...she is an art dealer.
chrisatspfld
Member
posted: Jul. 17, 2007 @ 10:05p
RushnRockt said: You should not confuse the concepts of "developed nation" with a "dominant economy." China will take more than one Olympic games to become truly developed, yet a hick up in it's economy will be noticed just as much as a hick up in US economy. And it's influence will continue to increase, not always real, sometimes perceived, nevertheless it is still possible to be "dominant" yet not fully "developed."
As far as who can pick up the slack, there is no need for it to be one country. Despite all the the trouble, EU's inclusion of Eastern European countries means they have much more room for growth. While Western Europe obviously tapped out it's capabilities of super fast growth, Easter bloc has not truly even started.
I understand. Dominance and development coincide but differ. Arguably, development does not necessarily end, nor does dominance.
As for the original question, continental natural catastrophe and nuclear war remain the only viable threats to the predominance of the United States. The US has not fought a war on domestic soil since the War of 1812. It has never defaulted. It has encountered many economic crises yet progressed. It maintains many alliances worldwide, with the lesser powers. I could conceive of a wider distribution to power, that more states within and beyond the OECD achieve more of it. I do not conceive that any single state might soon outrank the US in the international hierarchy.
Do not immediately equate the billions of people in China and India to billion-person markets, workforces, or even citizenry. The demographic, cultural, and political forces might be too great for either state to ever approximate the US. The Soviet Union had a greater populace and more territory than the US, yet the modern state of Russia has deformed from the Second World into a state like that now must manipulate energy for power, like OPEC.
JohnGalt69 said: I did not say that wages rise with productivity. I said that productivity, absent a change in the money supply, is what causes deflation. As the price of goods, etc. deflates, real wages inherently will rise unless pay is continuously cut.You just said that real wages will tend to rise unless they don't.
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