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Yield on bank bonds pricing in high odds of failure in: Discussion

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I don't mean to scare the poop out of anyone, but some of the yields on WAMU and other bank debt is enough to send you out to the canned goods store to stock up.


As as example, there's a bond maturing in Jan 2009 selling in the open market with a yield to maturity of almost 40 (Forty) percent.

With many a FW'er falling over themselves to get an extra 1/4 % , and would kill to get 5% on a cd, this might be of interest.

Thems racetrack odds.

Gives you a warm fuzzy, don't it?

PS The FDIC will tell you to take a hike on this, just in case you were gonna ask.

Message edited by: jdopple on 2008-08-01 22:52:33 CDT

Quick Summary is created and edited by users like you... Add FAQ's, Links and other Relevant Information by clicking the edit button in the lower right hand corner of this message.


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Link?

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I wouldn't bet on WAMU, but I own bonds from JPM (9%), GS (8%), MS (6), PRU (10%), FRE (14%). Worst case scenario for FRE is a gov't nationalization; in which I will be paid. I don't screw around with fixed income.

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jdopple said:The FDIC will tell you to take a hike on this, just in case you were gonna ask.

As a member of the senior creditors, you'd get a better deal than anyone else. Unfortunately, you'd be subject to whatever agreement the rest of the senior creditors come up with, for the most part.

For someone who has lots of money and really loves to speculate, WAMU 2009 might be a great buy. 40% in 5 months...I wish I could, but I just don't have it. Grrr.

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newb question, how do I buy bonds from the above companies?

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Open an account with one of the major securities firms. Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs are the most premier. Lehman Bros. were big, but they mostly still play with MBS's. That's why they are all screwed up. With Morgan Stanley, they have three levels of service. Premier (accounts/assets with 100k - 500k), Gold (500k - 750k), and Platinum (750k +). Goldman Sachs has a minimum investment/assets of two million. With either of these firms (Goldman Sachs the largest, Morgan Stanley is second largest), you will have access to newly issued bonds. offerings, and securities baskets BEFORE they go to open market. Most of the large premier offerings are sold out before they go to the open market though.

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nm

Message edited by: mapen on 2008-08-02 08:35:37 CDT
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Wow.. yikes.

Scottrade has these BTW if you dare.

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lampy2k4 said:Wow.. yikes.

Scottrade has these BTW if you dare.

How do you find them on Scottrade? Just curious. thanks

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scotto777 said:lampy2k4 said:Wow.. yikes.

Scottrade has these BTW if you dare.


How do you find them on Scottrade? Just curious. thanks

Trade, CDs & Bonds, Corporate Bonds, do a default search, sort by YTM

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Great, thanks.

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What makes you think you'll be able to get canned goods ?
Buy It Now

Or be able to get your hands on something to purchase them with?
Wanna buy some silver?


No big deal, just put it on your credit card.
Charge It

I won't bore you with the stories of travel restrictions, asset freezes, secret prisons or closed door congressional meetings. We are either at the end of a very dark 8 years or at the beginning of something even more "interesting". Probably just a conspiracy theory, lets all get back to watching American Idol. Nothing to see here.

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comptalk said:FRE (14%). Worst case scenario for FRE is a gov't nationalization; in which I will be paid. I don't screw around with fixed income.That may be the worst case for the country, but worse cases for FRE bondholders are certainly conceivable.

I fear setting off the evil alarms if I say any more than that.

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If a WAMU bond with a yield to maturity of almost 40% is too scary, then just go out one more year to Jan 2010 where a WAMU bond has a YTM of only around 23%.

Much more reassuring.

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lp244 said:If a WAMU bond with a yield to maturity of almost 40% is too scary, then just go out one more year to Jan 2010 where a WAMU bond has a YTM of only around 23%.

Much more reassuring.

Not really. 7% would be reassuring. 23% still means no investor wants to touch them.

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moneyfiend said:
I won't bore you with the stories of travel restrictions, asset freezes, secret prisons or closed door congressional meetings.

My only question is, will my tin foil hat protect me from the government mind-control rays? And should I join the Illuminati/Council on Foreign Relations/<Insert Other Group Conspiracy Theorists Salivate About Here> so I can take advantage of all the doom to come?

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comptalk said:I wouldn't bet on WAMU, but I own bonds from JPM (9%), GS (8%), MS (6), PRU (10%), FRE (14%). Worst case scenario for FRE is a gov't nationalization; in which I will be paid. I don't screw around with fixed income.

Even though I agree w/ the thesis that you might not lose money in FNM / FRE bonds, you have interest rate / price risk.

What if FRE bond spreads vs. treasuries increase? The market value of your bonds will decrease.

Some companies are prolly trading as if in technical default, e.g., GM, WM, etc.

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comptalk said:I wouldn't bet on WAMU, but I own bonds from JPM (9%), GS (8%), MS (6), PRU (10%), FRE (14%). Worst case scenario for FRE is a gov't nationalization; in which I will be paid. I don't screw around with fixed income.

You are a brave man. I would not touch any of the investment banks considering both JPM and BAC have both stated they are not guarantee or affirming the debt from there recent purchases. While I understand more than likely at the end of the day both of them will make good on that debt there is still a risk there.

Why hell would anyone buy GS at 8% or MS at 6% when BOA, Ciitgroup and JPM bonds are all yielding over 9% and if any of those 3 banks go under the systemic risk to the banking system more than like would take down many more banks than just them. So there debt in my opinion is risk free vs investment banks is gamble at best considering investment banking model going forward is broken even for GS considering GS got over 50% of there 2006 and 2007 revenue from underwriting and distributing MBS and that business is not coming back any time soon. Only reason GS did not get screwed as bad as other investment banks is because they hedge there MBS correct and correctly predicted the collapse in price of MBS.

So basically in my opinion for what ever it is worth the only good bonds you bought are the JPM(if they are real JPM bonds and not Bear Sterns), PRU and FRE. The only reason I think FRE and FNM are decent buys is because the government is not going to allow them to fail thus bonds holders will not get hosed.

Message edited by: dolmar on 2008-08-02 21:54:50 CDT
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Don't! Do you enjoy gambling? Buy a mutual fund -- stocks seems to be the things to buy now for those who can look past all the media hype and see value.

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