rated:
posted: Aug. 2, 2008 @ 8:43p
comptalk said:I wouldn't bet on WAMU, but I own bonds from JPM (9%), GS (8%), MS (6), PRU (10%), FRE (14%). Worst case scenario for FRE is a gov't nationalization; in which I will be paid. I don't screw around with fixed income.
You are a brave man. I would not touch any of the investment banks considering both JPM and BAC have both stated they are not guarantee or affirming the debt from there recent purchases. While I understand more than likely at the end of the day both of them will make good on that debt there is still a risk there.
Why hell would anyone buy GS at 8% or MS at 6% when BOA, Ciitgroup and JPM bonds are all yielding over 9% and if any of those 3 banks go under the systemic risk to the banking system more than like would take down many more banks than just them. So there debt in my opinion is risk free vs investment banks is gamble at best considering investment banking model going forward is broken even for GS considering GS got over 50% of there 2006 and 2007 revenue from underwriting and distributing MBS and that business is not coming back any time soon. Only reason GS did not get screwed as bad as other investment banks is because they hedge there MBS correct and correctly predicted the collapse in price of MBS.
So basically in my opinion for what ever it is worth the only good bonds you bought are the JPM(if they are real JPM bonds and not Bear Sterns), PRU and FRE. The only reason I think FRE and FNM are decent buys is because the government is not going to allow them to fail thus bonds holders will not get hosed.
Message edited by: dolmar on 2008-08-02 21:54:50 CDT