click to close
help
edit

Forums
Finance

California offering $7 billion worth of GO Ran's on Oct 17 in: Subjects › General Economics

  • filter:
  • Tell A Friend
  • Text Only
  • Search this Topic »
  • switch to 'Classic' view
  • Go to Page :
  • 1 2345
rated:
alert mods    

California 2008 GO Ran which mature on June 1 2009 are being issued on Oct 17.

With this being the largest California Ran issue ever places like Fidelity are even offering them. And California for the fist time ever lowered the minimum purchase amount down to $5K from the normal $100k minimum. The order period is Oct 13-16(depending on the dealer).

Citi is showing a price talk between 4.25-5.25% currently and I am sure that price could go up or down as we get closer to cut off time which is Oct 16 at 4pm EST based on Demand. These notes settle on Oct 31. These notes are 271 day discount notes.

If they go off at rate between 4-5% tax free in my opinion these notes are going to be screaming buys as I do not think VRDN will maintain that high a rate over the next 271 days as I think the credit markets will claim down sooner or later. And I do not see short term rates going up from here but possible down.

The risk I guess is that Ca will be unable to refinance these notes come June which I think is highly unlikely as they are GO and all revenue collected goes first to cover GO debt over other state debt but I guess it is possible if the credit crunch continues that long and get worse as these Trans do not have liquidity support at all unlike Tran's issued in past years. And the state revenue drops so drastically that there revenue could not even cover their current debt obligations even after all the budget cuts they would be forced to take in that event. I think that risk is super low considering pretty much every single CA tax-free MMF would break the buck in that event as many MMF are holding CA VRDN, Trans, and Discount notes.


Prospectus

Message edited by: dolmar on 2008-10-11 15:06:10 CDT

Yield results on short-term notes --

Maturing 5/20/2009 -> 3.75%
Maturing 6/22/2009 -> 4.25%

CP Discount Note Series B-2
Maturing 6/30/09 -> 4.986%

Message edited by: dolmar on 2008-10-17 22:00:41 CDT
rated:
alert mods    

Will Arnold's picture be on them?

rated:
alert mods    

I have not bought any individual bonds/notes other than through treasury direct. With 5k minimum, this maybe something I can afford Will there be a fee for purchasing this through, say Fidelity? Any idea if Vanguard is offering them.

rated:
alert mods    

Yeah, they could just sell pieces of paper with his pic on them. The fans will buy them up. Free $ for CA!

rated:
alert mods    

I have no idea what other dealers will or will be not charging. Citi for examples charges me nothing to buy new issue bonds. I get them at underwriting price.

Only reason I know Fidelity was offering them is they are listed in the prospectus I posted and if you goto Fidelity web page then goto research then fixed income then new issue muni bonds they are listed and have an open order period between Oct 14 and 15.

You need to check with your broker to find out if they are going to offer them and what fee's if any you will be charged as that will change your YTM on these bonds.

Citi price talk is the expected "Coupon" only so that Citi customers have an idea of what the yield is before they order them. Price talk is not a guarantee rate either and is subject to change based on demand. I am assuming considering the order period does not open till Monday the current price talk is just Citi guess based on what VRDN and other Muni Discount notes are currently yielding in the open market. If MMF managers aggressively bid for these notes that yield could drop drastically on the flip side if MMF managers do not yield could go up drastically too as MMF managers are the largest buyers of short term notes.

I have a felling Ca lowered the minimum purchase amount because they think demand from MMF managers is going to be weak because I do not think right now many MMF managers are going to be waiting to buy 271 day notes when they are seeing huge amount of inflows and outflows on a weekly basis based on fear in the market. So I think Ca is hoping demand from retailer buyers will help drive down the rate they will ultimately have to pay on these notes.

Message edited by: dolmar on 2008-10-11 15:47:51 CDT
rated:
alert mods    

There is a list of participating dealers available from the California State Treasury.

Message edited by: Ipecac on 2008-10-11 19:41:50 CDT
rated:
alert mods    

NO SPAM

dolmar, is that you Arnold?

rated:
alert mods    

can you find out the exact/approx yield before you buy?

are they AZ tax free ? if not anything like it in AZ??

Message edited by: vickh on 2008-10-11 23:01:56 CDT
rated:
alert mods    

vickh said:can you find out the exact/approx yield before you buy?

are they AZ tax free ? if not anything like it in AZ??

These are CA state tax exempt and federal tax exempt. If you buy them you would still pay AZ state income tax. The Price Talk is estimated yield. Until they are issued you will not know the exact coupon and that coupon will be based on supply and demand. You can always buy them on the 2nd market except then you will pay the "Market Price" for them. That price could be higher or lower than the issue price. That is a risk you take.

rated:
alert mods    

can somebody post the cliff notes on making money on these bonds?

rated:
alert mods    

vladgur said:can somebody post the cliff notes on making money on these bonds?

GEE I do not know 5% tax-free with final maturity of June 1 is 7 month. Unless you are a homeless person chances are you paying some federal taxes.So if you are in the lowest Federal tax bracket of 25% the yield would be 6.67%. if you happen to live in Ca or are not a homeless person(meaning your federal tax bracket is higher than 25%) then your yield is even higher as they bonds are CA state tax exempt too.

If you happen to know a better rate for a 7 month investment with as low of a risk as this please let us know.

No cliff notes needed for this deal..... Just 1/4 of a brain is needed to invest in these notes as it is not hard to understand the appeal these notes have.

rated:
alert mods    

vickh said:can you find out the exact/approx yield before you buy?

are they AZ tax free ? if not anything like it in AZ??

At Schwab, you can get a more refined guess but it often is an hr or 2 into the first day of order taking before they know.
It's be pretty close (within 5 basis pts) the last few times but don't know how it will be in this market. You possibly may be able to
set a limit on the min yld if you ask.........I've never done it so not sure.......and because of the uncertainty, it might be an approx.
limit only.

rated:
alert mods    

dolmar said:I have no idea what other dealers will or will be not charging. Citi for examples charges me nothing to buy new issue bonds. I get them at underwriting price.

dolmar are you a citibank gold, smith barney, or private banking etc member? Just wondering what status is needed to get the bonds at underwriting price.

rated:
alert mods    

Can i buy these from online broker such as tdameritrade or firstrade

rated:
alert mods    

Add in LA Times this am: California residents (individuals) can buy during an early order period October 14th and 15th with no upfront sales commission. It's not clear if individuals from other states can participate (but as dolmar said they're only state-tax free in California).

From the California web site "Buy California Bonds": You must have an account with one of the brokerage firms participating in the bond or note sale. Bonds and notes cannot be purchased directly from the State. Individuals should check with their broker to learn about any other transaction or account maintenance fees.

rated:
alert mods    

dolmar said:vladgur said:can somebody post the cliff notes on making money on these bonds?

GEE I do not know 5% tax-free with final maturity of June 1 is 7 month. Unless you are a homeless person chances are you paying some federal taxes.So if you are in the lowest Federal tax bracket of 25% the yield would be 6.67%. if you happen to live in Ca or are not a homeless person(meaning your federal tax bracket is higher than 25%) then your yield is even higher as they bonds are CA state tax exempt too.

If you happen to know a better rate for a 7 month investment with as low of a risk as this please let us know.

No cliff notes needed for this deal..... Just 1/4 of a brain is needed to invest in these notes as it is not hard to understand the appeal these notes have.

Stupid question, I don't understand the yield very well. So say I buy $10,000 worth and the yield is 5%, on June 1 am I getting back $10,500? Or is that yield % like an APY and I'm only going to get 7/12 that?

rated:
alert mods    

Dolmar, thanks for your insights , are these considered the next safest thing to CD's and Treasuries?

rated:
alert mods    

Dang, no Scottrade or Tradeking, but green anyway.

rated:
alert mods    

vladgur said:can somebody post the cliff notes on making money on these bonds?
Very good question! Yes, if you are with Fidelity and have over 500K marginable, then margin to the hilt at 4% and hope you'll get over 5% on RANs.

 Close

Sign Me In
Nickname: 
Password: 
Remember My Login Information:

Forget your login information?

Not Already A Member?
Sign Up Now!



Disclaimer: By providing links to other sites, FatWallet.com does not guarantee, approve or endorse the information or products available at these sites, nor