California 2008 GO Ran which mature on June 1 2009 are being issued on Oct 17.
With this being the largest California Ran issue ever places like Fidelity are even offering them. And California for the fist time ever lowered the minimum purchase amount down to $5K from the normal $100k minimum. The order period is Oct 13-16(depending on the dealer).
Citi is showing a price talk between 4.25-5.25% currently and I am sure that price could go up or down as we get closer to cut off time which is Oct 16 at 4pm EST based on Demand. These notes settle on Oct 31. These notes are 271 day discount notes.
If they go off at rate between 4-5% tax free in my opinion these notes are going to be screaming buys as I do not think VRDN will maintain that high a rate over the next 271 days as I think the credit markets will claim down sooner or later. And I do not see short term rates going up from here but possible down.
The risk I guess is that Ca will be unable to refinance these notes come June which I think is highly unlikely as they are GO and all revenue collected goes first to cover GO debt over other state debt but I guess it is possible if the credit crunch continues that long and get worse as these Trans do not have liquidity support at all unlike Tran's issued in past years. And the state revenue drops so drastically that there revenue could not even cover their current debt obligations even after all the budget cuts they would be forced to take in that event. I think that risk is super low considering pretty much every single CA tax-free MMF would break the buck in that event as many MMF are holding CA VRDN, Trans, and Discount notes.
