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ToofanMail
- Ancient Member
posted: Nov. 11, 2008 @ 9:19p
jayK said:ToofanMail said:We are talking about 60% of all mortgages (underwritten by Fannie/Freddie) and hence the principal amount is in excess of 10 TRILLION dollars. The implicit subsidy under this plan will be in excess of $400 billion PER YEAR!!!What would the implicit subsidy be if all 60% of those mortgages went into foreclosure?
And given that principal payments are deferred, not forgiven, what is your $400B number based on? The number is not based on 'forgiven' principal but for lower interest rate that the goverment is forced to give you to 'make it work'. |
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Xnarg
- Loyal Member
posted: Nov. 11, 2008 @ 9:22p
They'll come up with something similar for student loans. |
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skagen
- Happy Member
posted: Nov. 11, 2008 @ 10:19p
Xnarg said:They'll come up with something similar for student loans. Yeah because I, as one of the 3 in 5 or so Americans that probably still pays income taxes, can't wait to pay for someone's art degree too. Oy! |
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jayK
- Senior Member - JayK
posted: Nov. 11, 2008 @ 11:09p
xoneinax said:jayK said:article said:Investors who do not occupy their homes would be excludedAhh, good. "Occupy" is ill defined. An phone bill to 12345 1/2 Main St should be sufficient for proof of occupation. Gotta stop paying that payment for 90 days; timing is critical.Again, lenders are not idiots. There will be at least a basic level of investigation before people can participate in the program. And by the way, if you intentionally stop paying your bill even though you have the means to do so, you just trashed your credit for nothing because the lender won't let you renegotiate - unless you do a very good job of hiding your assets. |
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jayK
- Senior Member - JayK
posted: Nov. 11, 2008 @ 11:14p
ToofanMail said:The number is not based on 'forgiven' principal but for lower interest rate that the goverment is forced to give you to 'make it work'.Please show the calculations you used to arrive at that number. And by the way, the government is simply giving permission to mortgage companies to do this, they are not directly subsidizing anything. They are also not forcing mortgage companies to do this. |
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Tarajunky
- Senior Member
posted: Nov. 12, 2008 @ 2:22a
skagen said:I would rather lose 30% of my [house's value] and have everybody suffer and learn rather than watching my children continue to get burdened by other peoples' mistakes - because that is what's happening. I would argue that you're in the stark minority then. What if you put [Social Security] into that spot? Seniors would go into conniption fits. What if you put [Medicare] there? Seniors would fly into a rage. And yet, seniors are leaving their children with almost 100 trillion in future unpaid bills for those programs. The same goes for every institutionalized welfare program, no matter how well meaning. Once it's in place, the long term sustainability is irrelevant to those on the dole, and to the politicians that hold onto power by crucifying anyone that attempts to reform the programs. |
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riznick
- Cranky Member
posted: Nov. 12, 2008 @ 2:55a
HumDoHamaraDo said: If we lived in a true democracy where everyone voted on the issue, it would be fairly easy to pass a tax rate of 90% on all individual income above 60K. That would be Mob Rule. We are heading in that direction pretty fast... |
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riznick
- Cranky Member
posted: Nov. 12, 2008 @ 3:39a
Tarajunky said:skagen said:I would rather lose 30% of my [house's value] and have everybody suffer and learn rather than watching my children continue to get burdened by other peoples' mistakes - because that is what's happening.
I would argue that you're in the stark minority then. What if you put [Social Security] into that spot? Seniors would go into conniption fits. What if you put [Medicare] there? Seniors would fly into a rage. And yet, seniors are leaving their children with almost 100 trillion in future unpaid bills for those programs. Considering how the value of homes shot up so quickly, it isn't that big of a deal if the prices drop 30%. We all knew they would have a big dip eventually. The only people that will truly be affected are the idiots who bought a house in the last 3-4 years with the intent to sell it after 4-7 years. Easy come, easy go...
Tarajunky said:The same goes for every institutionalized welfare program, no matter how well meaning. Once it's in place, the long term sustainability is irrelevant to those on the dole, and to the politicians that hold onto power by crucifying anyone that attempts to reform the programs. I wholeheartedly agree. There are many programs that are started with good intentions, did their job, are no longer needed, but find a way to keep getting funding. It is difficult to remove any of these programs once they are started. |
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CptSavAHo
- Thrifty Member
posted: Nov. 12, 2008 @ 4:24a
AWESOME NOW WHAT THE AGENT SAID REALLY WILL BE TRUE WHEN THEY SUPPORT THESE INFLATED HOUSE PRICES...BUY NOW OR GET PRICED OUT OF THE MARKET FOOOORRRREEEEEEVVVVVEEEEERRRR!!!! |
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ClaimsGuy
- Senior Member
posted: Nov. 12, 2008 @ 6:22a
The same idiots who take advantage of this bill, will need a future bailout when they again start spending more than they earn. |
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skagen
- Happy Member
posted: Nov. 12, 2008 @ 6:30a
Tarajunky said:skagen said:I would rather lose 30% of my [house's value] and have everybody suffer and learn rather than watching my children continue to get burdened by other peoples' mistakes - because that is what's happening.
I would argue that you're in the stark minority then. What if you put [Social Security] into that spot? Seniors would go into conniption fits. What if you put [Medicare] there? Seniors would fly into a rage. And yet, seniors are leaving their children with almost 100 trillion in future unpaid bills for those programs.
The same goes for every institutionalized welfare program, no matter how well meaning. Once it's in place, the long term sustainability is irrelevant to those on the dole, and to the politicians that hold onto power by crucifying anyone that attempts to reform the programs. Believe me, with all these bailouts and welfare programs doing nothing but expanding and growing in size, I know I'm in the minority. But it doesn't mean I'm not right. (I can respect well rationalized positions with a different point of view but it isn't changing mine!) |
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motherthe
- New Member
posted: Nov. 12, 2008 @ 7:43a
I understood this program to aid those who can't afford increasing payments, they would lower the payments also by cutting principal, but at the end of the mortgage or selling the house that principal would have to be paid. So, really it seems a good way to keep the housing market more stable. Especially if people could make the payments and pay the taxes etc. Think everyone wins |
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Mulligan
- Senior Member - 1K
posted: Nov. 12, 2008 @ 8:12a
The problem with houses is they cost too much for the average responsible budget minded family. Propping up prices while inventories are huge and rentals are abundant are going to prolong the pain and recovery. What a waste of money and resources. Where should house prices be? Look at your county assessors website for prices in 2000, then see what the price would be 8 years later with normal average house appreciation, usually around 3 or 4 percent. That should be highest sustainable prices. Housing needs to return to the appreciation curve, and return to a place where buying is a better choice than renting for most. Though, consider the state of the economy and cost of living increases like gas and food, then consider that 2000 prices might be high. With these conditions appreciation would have traditionally slow or even flatten. |
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curlychiquita
- Member
posted: Nov. 12, 2008 @ 9:15a
I should have bought a bigger house and defaulted on it instead of staying in my "I can afford this on my monthly income" house. Or I should just buy a sign that says "sucker" and stick it on my lawn. |
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ToofanMail
- Ancient Member
posted: Nov. 12, 2008 @ 9:50p
jayK said:ToofanMail said:The number is not based on 'forgiven' principal but for lower interest rate that the goverment is forced to give you to 'make it work'.Please show the calculations you used to arrive at that number.
And by the way, the government is simply giving permission to mortgage companies to do this, they are not directly subsidizing anything. They are also not forcing mortgage companies to do this. Private lenders don't need "permission" from the government to modify their loan terms conducive to lender's needs. Citibank, JP Morgan etc. were all doing it before the govt announced it also. Govt is specifically talking about Fannie and Freddie loans. These loans are bought by fannie/freddie and were then securitized (this is where agency MBS comes from). Fannie and Freddie were taken over by the feds and hence it is OUR money they are giving away. Now they are not forgiving principal but when they give the loans at LESS THAN MARKET rate, it is a government subsidy. I estimate the reduction in interest rate to be conservatively 4% (and hence the figure of 400B on 10 trillion of mortgages). To estimate the reduction in interest rate, ask yourself what would a financial institution normally charge for interest those who are 90days behind and subtract 6% from that estimated interest rate. |
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jayK
- Senior Member - JayK
posted: Nov. 12, 2008 @ 11:35p
ToofanMail said:Private lenders don't need "permission" from the government to modify their loan terms conducive to lender's needs. Citibank, JP Morgan etc. were all doing it before the govt announced it also. Govt is specifically talking about Fannie and Freddie loans.Correct, thanks for the clarification.
I estimate the reduction in interest rate to be conservatively 4% (and hence the figure of 400B on 10 trillion of mortgages).I see the majority of renegotiation happening on ARMs that have adjusted to very high rates thanks to predatory lending, so instead of FNM/FRE getting 9-10% in interest from these people, it would get 5-6%. Of course, there would be no chance of FNM/FRE collecting on the original interest rate anyway if a foreclosure is imminent, so the $400B loss (and more) would happen anyway even if there was no renegotiation plan in place. |
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PolarDude
- Senior Member - 1K
posted: Nov. 19, 2008 @ 5:31a
Time to quit the full time job, take a vacation, and get an easy part time job to make the bare minimum under the new guidelines. Sounds like a lazy man's dream come true! |
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Xnarg
- Loyal Member
posted: Nov. 19, 2008 @ 7:08a
Mulligan said:....Where should house prices be? Look at your county assessors website for prices in 2000, then see what the price would be 8 years later with normal average house appreciation, usually around 3 or 4 percent. That should be highest sustainable prices...Around here, assessed values have no relation to actual market values. They do not increase or decrease in relation to the market, either. They're artificial numbers, used solely for taxation purposes.
I would never consider assessed value as being accurate of any real market price nor would I ever trust the government to calculate market value for me.
Consider that your scheme assumes that the 2000 assessed value was correct and that all properties appreciate at the same rate. Neither assumption is valid.Mulligan said:The problem with houses is they cost too much for the average responsible budget minded family.Do you have some data to support that? The affordability index suggests that this is not the case, that in fact, homes have continued to be more affordable over time. |
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