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Best Preparation for Hyper Inflation? Archived From: Finance

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I think y'all better come to grips with the coming hyper-deflationary period, which is a near certainty, before you even have to remotely worry about inflation.

You see, the developed world was absolutely consuming far more than was necessary (or reasonable), and this over-consumption was the fertilizer that allowed the nascent seed that were the economies of the developing world to blossom.

There will be a cultural shift now glorifying and praising thrift and frugality, and especially minimizing purchases and seeking value. Even with central banks pumping massive amounts of paper fiat into the global financial base, it won't soon find a home, as it will be first used to cleanse toxic balance sheets of sickly banks, brokerage firms and arbitrageurs, and the losses on these balance sheets are massive.

The developed world will now once again learn that living within their means isn't that difficult, and may even become in vogue, and as that happens, the discretionary purchases that constitute probably at least 40% of consumer expenditures will be severely reduced.

Watch the BK filings roll in after this year's Christmas shopping season as debt-laden retailers that were created or re-created during the recent M&A boom come to the inevitable realization that the retail space is too brutal to survive in given their weak balance sheets, shrinking sales, and ever-increasing debt levels.


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I doubt that hyperinflation will be a problem in the near future, not until we get out of the recession. Why?

The reason why hyperinflation can result is understood by examining the equation for exchange:
M * V = P * Q,
where M is the money supply, V is the velocity of money, P is the price level, and Q real expenditures.

This simple equation is always correct, it's an identity. As welookgoodcom suggests that as M (money supply) increases, then P must increase. Unfortunately, in the current economy V is decreasing as fast than M is increasing. We might be in Liquidity Trap where monetary policy becomes ineffective. So, as long as banks are hoarding money (not lending) we could even have deflation when the money supply increases. For most people, we should be more worried about holding on to our jobs than hyperinflation.


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I am most concerned about hyperinflation, because I live off interest from my CD's. So what food is the best to stockpile?


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Nuts!


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lynnes1 said:I am most concerned about hyperinflation, because I live off interest from my CD's. So what food is the best to stockpile?

Buy long out of the money gold options to cover your CD bet on deflation.


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tazzy531 said:Hyper inflation? I'm getting ready for Ludicrous Inflation!

Forget about whether we are in the red or black anymore....we've gone plaid!


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Just yesterday I bought 2000 rounds of 7.62x39MM FMJ @ $.1645 per bullet. Now I need to decide whether to sell them for immediate profit or hedge a financial collapse.


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dpid said:If we were to replace the B with Beer, wouldn't that mitigate many of the risks?

The upside potential for Beer is less than that of Blow. You will be capping your upside and still have similar value of downside.


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Whatever !


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If your concern is really *hyper inflation* as was seen in Zimbabwe or the Weimar republic in the early 20's your best bet is to use cash to buy physical gold (in an untraceable way) and secretly bury it in your backyard. Inflation bonds are just going to be paying you in dollars, which will be useless in a world of hyperinflation.

That being said, I think it is far more likely that we'll either see deflation or high levels of inflation and not hyperinflation. I'd be balanced in assets that provide inflation and deflation protection (lots of regular bonds, inflation bonds, and gold).


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