were all entitled "Discussion: Is there a real estate housing bubble, and, if there is, what will pop it? Part X" Since Part 3 has gotten to about the length of Part 2 when it was cut off, and the title is obviously now two years out of date, seems as good a time as any to start Part 4 ...
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Let me revive a tired argument & spice this discussion up a bit by saying ...as the OP of the first part, a guy who sold his house in summer 2003 and started renting (although for personal reasons at lest as much as housing price ones) .. I believe that this year or next may end up being the best and safest opportunity since early this decade decade to buy a house in many parts of the country for anyone expecting to stay in that house long term. Furthermore, I expect to put my money where my mouth is, I personally intend to do just that: buy a house. Not all the excesses of the bubble have been wrung out of the market yet, but the Case-Shiller report that came out earlier this month shows that the average house price nationally is down 27% since the peak in 2006. Another report out last week stating that 1 of 5 homeowners nationally are "underwater" right now suggests things may go down further yet, very quickly, if these owners "walk away" or are foreclosed upon, but I expect that process to play out much quicker than the runup in prices (like a real bubble), so I think the bottom is nigh sometime later this year or early next, at the national level (as measured by Case-Shiller), and buyers should move now to take advantage of low rates while they are still being artificially kept low by the Treasury flooding the money supply & by economic fear postponing other investment claims upon this capital.
I am prepared to be labeled a crackpot for saying "Buy Now!" ... just as I was for saying "Don't Buy Now!" in 2004. Hopefully I will not be as early (two years, the bubble peaked in early 2006) as I was in making that first call! One argument that this is just the beginning, and that there are large, prolonged price declines yet to come is that higher interest rates will serve as a downward pressure on prices. This could very well be, I concede, and as I said above I think rates are going up. But I guess, personally speaking, that I just don't want to risk this not being true, and seeing rates go up without prices coming down. I want to buy and hold, so the near future looks like the safest opportunity to get the most house with the least monthly payment (assuming a 30 year locked rate) for those that are not already homeowners, and don't have any known plans to relocate in the foreseeable future (may be an important caveat).
Message edited by: MarkM on 2009-03-17 12:38:29 CDT
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QuasiMatter stated,"I have gone through the entire thread trying to find some intelligent comments," based specific, quantified evidence, and there aren't any. Post upon post upon pages of killing time.
Message edited by: wherthedeals on 2009-08-09 14:33:34 CDT
Real estate has flatlined for the past decade, when will it go up in value?(Part 5)
once we hit bottom, slow growth close to flat-line might be a good thing maybe homes will become a place for people to live again and not a part of wholesale fraud schemes --- more likely, there will be another bubble --- it will just be starting from a lower baseline
Real estate has flatlined for the past decade, when will it go up in value?(Part 5)I don't disagree. But I also think rates will not be this low again for a long time, so for anyone looking to buy and hold with a thirty year (and not pay all cash,) this may be the year to jump (back) in. I just elaborated in the OP with this controversial statement in order to nudge everyone to the "what's next?" aspect -- what the original part I was trying to do -- and get everyone to drop the "what has already happened" tone that was dominating the end of part III.
Real estate has flatlined for the past decade, when will it go up in value?(Part 5)I don't disagree. But I also think rates will not be this low again for a long time, so for anyone looking to buy and hold with a thirty year (and not pay all cash,) this may be the year to jump (back) in. I just elaborated in the OP with this controversial statement in order to nudge everyone to the "what's next?" aspect -- what the original part I was trying to do -- and get everyone to drop the "what has already happened" tone that was dominating the end of part III.
funny my realtor friend thinks the same way
I dont think the rates are going to skyrocket, maybe 1 point or 1.5 but thats about it.
I do think that the banks are going to come out with this crazy idea of just lending money to the people who can pay them back .... or at least I hope...
SleekWallet said:MarkM said:I don't disagree. But I also think rates will not be this low again for a long time, so for anyone looking to buy and hold with a thirty year (and not pay all cash,) this may be the year to jump (back) in. ...
funny my realtor friend thinks the same way
is your friend Lawrence Yun from NAR?
he kept saying it was best time to buy since bubble started burting
In my opinion the price of RE is not full picture. The other day I stopped by to look at a 2BR 2.5BA condo in Brookline, MA being auctioned off. The condo fees $1300/month, RE taxes aprox. 14000/year, which comes to close to $2400/month just to own that piece of RE not including mortgage. For that much $$ one can rent an apartment in the area.
74ak said:SleekWallet said:MarkM said:I don't disagree. But I also think rates will not be this low again for a long time, so for anyone looking to buy and hold with a thirty year (and not pay all cash,) this may be the year to jump (back) in. ...
funny my realtor friend thinks the same way
is your friend Lawrence Yun from NAR?
he kept saying it was best time to buy since bubble started burstingYun is but a mere shadow in evilness of the corporate prostitute that was his predecessor in that role, David Lereah. I've lost count of how many times I offered to rip that guy a new one a few years back in these threads ...
I call him a corporate prostitute because he now claims that he never really believed the words coming out of his mouth, that the one and only reason he used his oral orifice in this way was because his pimps at the NAR gave him money to open it and put those words in: Text
I'm trying to remember which circle in hell it is that Dante reserved for people like David Lereah. One of the inner rings, that I know. How does this man go out in public and hold his head up after admitting he's a corporate slut? How does he even sleep at night? Either no one listened to him, in which case his existence is pointless, or else someone somewhere did, and he is probably playing a role in ruining those people's lives. I had a lot more respect for him when I thought there was a small chance that he was "merely" a complete idiot.
74ak said:SleekWallet said:MarkM said:I don't disagree. But I also think rates will not be this low again for a long time, so for anyone looking to buy and hold with a thirty year (and not pay all cash,) this may be the year to jump (back) in. ...
funny my realtor friend thinks the same way
is your friend Lawrence Yun from NAR?
he kept saying it was best time to buy since bubble started burting
is that the same guy who wrote a book about it as well? im trying to find the link...
In years past, homeowners have been the ultimate gatekeepers of home prices; if they weren't willing to take anything less than a proper inflation adjusted return on their home then the home simply didn't sell. (barring the mandatory sales due to relocation, job loss, etc)
The large number of bank owned homes and glut of builder owned homes has offset the control wielded by traditional gatekeepers. As these homes are offloaded and consumers grow confident in the economy the traditional gatekeepers will again realize control of pricing.
SleekWallet said:74ak said:SleekWallet said:MarkM said:I don't disagree. But I also think rates will not be this low again for a long time, so for anyone looking to buy and hold with a thirty year (and not pay all cash,) this may be the year to jump (back) in. ...
funny my realtor friend thinks the same way
is your friend Lawrence Yun from NAR?
he kept saying it was best time to buy since bubble started burting
is that the same guy who wrote a book about it as well? im trying to find the link...
SleekWallet said:SleekWallet said:74ak said:SleekWallet said:MarkM said:I don't disagree. But I also think rates will not be this low again for a long time, so for anyone looking to buy and hold with a thirty year (and not pay all cash,) this may be the year to jump (back) in. ...
funny my realtor friend thinks the same way
is your friend Lawrence Yun from NAR?
he kept saying it was best time to buy since bubble started burting
is that the same guy who wrote a book about it as well? im trying to find the link...
patch96 said:Real estate in most markets has not bottomed yet.
I have never seen a commodity bottom without capitulation.I have difficulty calling real estate a commodity. I know of no other "commodity" that, unrefined, can generate a steady and perpetual income stream from ownership.
Message edited by: MarkM on 2009-03-17 13:14:04 CDT
The reviewers comments on the book are pretty good. what is good? 2 stars out of 5 is not good. And people who gave 5, thought it was a good comedy book meaning they did not take it seriously. First 5 stars comment:
"Funniest Book Ever Read Lereah is a master of comedy. Often while reading Mr. Lereah's tome i became overcome with laughter, sometimes experiencing convulsions. The convulsions were so severe that i would need to rest for shortness of breath. Thanks for your service Mr. Lereah, you've made a significant contribution"
manuvns said:does anyone have any insights or any reports on where San Diego prices are headed for the rest of 09 . I broke my crystal ball, so can't tell for sure
How is local economy and employment market in San Diego?
In Metro DC, it is stable and prices in such areas like Arlington or Bethesda (inside beltway) are holding up pretty well, and based on most recent sales data and foreclosure rates I would be surprised if it would decline more than 15% in the next year or so. Eventually, I expect prices to decline from downward pressure of neighbouring counties (due to equilibriom of living cost adjusted for commute and taxes and ingoring prestige or convinience). There are significant declines in property prices elsewhere in the area. So, it is not homogenious even whith in "small" area - like within beltway.
I would recommend to be a contrarian: whatever you local realtors (and Chief Economist for NAR) tell you, do the opposite untill you see clear signs of (local) economic recovery
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.... or at least I hope... 
