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barefool
- Senior Member
posted: May. 16, 2009 @ 5:47p
rzyzzy said:Actually the "competition" isn't very fierce and in most states the product isn't an optional purchase - it's required by law ( laws that were bought and paid for by the insurance lobby).Not if you buy a bond or put money on deposit with the state DMV. Then you can opt out of purchasing insurance.
As for competition, what state are you interested in? Southeastern states have around 200 companies selling auto insurance. You don't consider 200 companies all vying to sell you the same product competition? As for customer's leaving, yes some will, but many won't - and those that do leave will be replaced by a crop of new drivers, often poached from other companies with a one-time lowball quote, that ratchets up slowly and steadily like a lobster in a pot.The drivers that don't leave are exercising their freedom of choice. Some drivers value service over price. Some just don't care enough to shop frequently. And those customers that were poached from other companies with low rates will be poached right back with even lower rates if the company steadily increases rates.Your contention that "a statistical analysis won't result in an overall increase in rates" is EXACTLY the point I am making - it will result in increased rates.It's this certainty that is so pathetic. Where is your evidence? You must have performed some statistical analysis to so easily dismiss the actuarial studies that have been linked in this thread. No? Just more arguing from ignorance?If not, the insurance company wouldn't bother with the "analysis". It's all about creating a plausible lie.No. It's all about avoiding adverse selection. That's an economic term, so I don't expect you to be familiar with it. I'll explain with an example. Let's say you start an insurance company. You haven't bothered with statistical analysis of driver characteristics, because you're comfortable with your ignorance. So you price people who live in urban areas the same as people who live in the suburbs and rural areas. I work for a different insurance company. I think that, because urban areas have higher crime rates and higher congestion and traffic, it's possible that car theft and car accidents are more likely in cities than in less populated areas. I do a statistical analysis that confirms my hypothesis, and I charge suburban and rural drivers less money than you do. Most of your suburban and rural (i.e., least risky and most profitable) drivers leave your company and come to mine. You are left with primarily urban drivers. Because you probably priced your book of business assuming a mix of urban, suburban, and rural drivers, you are probably charging an insufficient rate. So you will go bankrupt. That is adverse selection. |
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barefool
- Senior Member
posted: May. 16, 2009 @ 5:58p
rzyzzy said:Why are so many with a "science background" so willing to believe that a credit score is a better predictor of insurance claims than, oh, I dunno, a DRIVING RECORD?Now you're arguing a straw man. Nobody has argued that credit is a better predictor of claims than driving record. We have only argued that credit is a valid predictor of claims.Even if one were to assume the "science" was good, the use of credit reports as a data input makes any output into pure garbage. Garbage in= Garbage out. Consumer reports found that 70% of credit reports had incorrect negative derogatory information in them. That's enough bad science to unfairly ding alot of people for a LOT of money.So do you think that banks should not use credit reports to underwrite loans? Do you believe that the fact that some credit reports have erroneous information negates the useful purpose for all credit reports? What sort of effect did Consumer Reports give to the erroneous information? If you have a bankruptcy erroneously reported on your credit report, that would certainly have a big impact on you. If you have a single late payment from six years ago reported, that wouldn't be much of an impact.If you want to believe the insurance companies use this information to lower everyone's rates there is no point in arguing with you.I agree. Some people just can't understand the concepts of insurance, economics, free markets, and statistics. Or, it seems, any of the above. |
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FatWalker
- Happy Member
posted: May. 16, 2009 @ 6:04p
rzyzzy said:barefool said:rzyzzy said:The reason some states won't allow it is because it's not true. It's simply another thing the insurance companies do to increase their profits at your expense.You should refrain from making definitive statements without evidence. Insurance companies have proven, through statistical studies, that risk is correlated with credit score. That's why regulators let them use credit in the rating algorithm.
And rates aren't increased by using credit scores. Rates are simply adjusted corresponding with risk. People with high credit scores actually pay lower premiums due to their lower risk. It's a good thing.
I would advise you not to make statements without evidence as well. I had a personal experience with this, and my rates went up - the reason given by my agent at the time was that my credit score had dropped.
The only thing the insurance companies have proven is that they are greedy, opportunistic, and anti-competitive, unless the government holds them back.
EVIDENCE
It's six pages, so I've pasted a relevant section below. Bottom line - you've been fed some kool-aid. Since you believe your score is fine, this issue doesn't matter. When it affects you, then it will become a problem.
See the facts below....
The Attorney General’s office finds it problematic for three reasons: 1. There is little or no transparency in the insurance industry. Consumers have no way of knowing which specific factors are being used to determine their insurance premiums. In the case of a “credit score,” these numbers may be based on a credit report, but are not identical to those reports. Simply reviewing a credit report will not offer a consumer a clear picture of what factors an insurance company has used to set that score. 2. There is little rational and independently verified correlation between a poor credit rating and a poor driving record. 3. Credit reports are notoriously error-ridden. Using an inaccurate report to determine an insurance premium is unwise and unfair.
If you don't agree with this, that is your perogative - however for every correct and accurate credit report, there is a gamer willing to do "bumpage" or the usual creditboard tricks to falsely increase their scores. And more than a few people, including myself have been dinged for things we didn't do, and we've had NO LUCK in removing inaccurate derogatory information from our reports. 100%......and these ah's raised my rates as my credit score got lower.....reason....shopping for auto insurance was creating credit checks for the quotes and that was why the score was getting lower....and letting them charge more. What a great country. |
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Philster
- Member
posted: May. 16, 2009 @ 6:23p
nycll said:Phil, $1 mil is a steal for an insurance co to get something like this. It is also next to nothing as part of its total cost. I didn't state it explicitly, but I'm referring to the costs for an analysis for a single state. And I'm only considering the costs of developing the rating plan, not the costs of getting the filing approved. This is a nontrivial portion of the expenses for median sized insurer. |
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Philster
- Member
posted: May. 16, 2009 @ 6:27p
rzyzzy said: What I DID say was that the "science" used to justify high rates for everyone is garbage. Everyone has a something about them that could be used with enough junk science to "prove" them to be an increased risk. You "said" it, but you backed up your claim with...nothing. Do you think you should believe me if I assert that the sky is yellow, without an ounce of proof? Why should I accept your assertion? |
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Philster
- Member
posted: May. 16, 2009 @ 6:50p
rzyzzy said:
Why are so many with a "science background" so willing to believe that a credit score is a better predictor of insurance claims than, oh, I dunno, a DRIVING RECORD?
This is a fair question. One that has been studied. The amount of weight that one should put on loss experience is called credibility. In 1959, Bob Bailey and Roy Simon did a study to analyze how much weight one could place on a single year of actual driving experience. They concluded that one year's experience should get 5.5% weight. Roughly speaking, if you look at all the factors (age, gender, type of car, driving experience) to determine the appropriate rate, you can give the latest years actual driving experience just over 5% weight. Caution, the factor is not linear, which means that you don't double the weight for two years of experience. They concluded that three years deserves just under 9.0%. (For technical reasons, this is a bit high, would be happy to explain if anyone is truly interested.) A trucking fleet with 100 drivers doesn't have enough experience in one year to merit 100% weight on experience - the rates quoted by insurance companies will include a fair proportion of weight on what is called exposure rating. It is understandable that a driver with a few accident free years would want a lot of weight put on that record, but the math doesn't support the claim. Credibility of Experience of a single private passenger car Phil |
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rzyzzy
- Senior Member
posted: May. 16, 2009 @ 11:46p
barefool said:So do you think that banks should not use credit reports to underwrite loans? Hmm... someone opened a door here, didn't they? I think it's pretty obvious, given the current economic circumstances, that a blind reliance on inaccurate credit reports and scientific "models" combined with a little corporate greed isn't a good thing for banks, insurance companies or taxpayers. Maybe that's my point. Maybe there's a lack of trust on my part, call me "ignorant" if you want... wait... you already did! Since we both own a fairly big chunk of AIG(I'm assuming you're in the US), perhaps you can help them with their "models" and I can help them with their morals. |
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rzyzzy
- Senior Member
posted: May. 17, 2009 @ 12:07a
Philster said:rzyzzy said: What I DID say was that the "science" used to justify high rates for everyone is garbage. Everyone has a something about them that could be used with enough junk science to "prove" them to be an increased risk.
You "said" it, but you backed up your claim with...nothing. Do you think you should believe me if I assert that the sky is yellow, without an ounce of proof? Why should I accept your assertion? Are we supposed to believe that the insurance companies are benevolent creatures that only look out for the best interests of their policyholders? They never gouge their customers, or try to weasel out of valid contracts? Are we to believe that NO regulation is necessary for this industry? I'm pretty sure I saw a post a couple of pages back asserting just that, was it yours? Hide behind the "free market" all you want, I'll take my chances with government regulation and a dose of "red tape" on the side. |
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barefool
- Senior Member
posted: May. 17, 2009 @ 9:08a
FatWalker said:100%......and these ah's raised my rates as my credit score got lower.....reason....shopping for auto insurance was creating credit checks for the quotes and that was why the score was getting lower....and letting them charge more. What a great country.Insurance quotes count as soft pulls on your credit report. They don't affect your score. More inconvenient facts. |
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barefool
- Senior Member
posted: May. 17, 2009 @ 9:13a
rzyzzy said:barefool said:So do you think that banks should not use credit reports to underwrite loans? Hmm... someone opened a door here, didn't they? I think it's pretty obvious, given the current economic circumstances, that a blind reliance on inaccurate credit reports and scientific "models" combined with a little corporate greed isn't a good thing for banks, insurance companies or taxpayers.I've heard a lot of theories on the causes of the current recession. You're the first to pin the blame on inaccurate credit reports. I suspect you may know just as much about banking as you do about insurance. |
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barefool
- Senior Member
posted: May. 17, 2009 @ 9:23a
rzyzzy said:Are we supposed to believe that the insurance companies are benevolent creatures that only look out for the best interests of their policyholders?Insurance companies look out for the best interests of their owners. For mutual companies, the owners are the policyholders, so the companies really do look out for the policyholders. For stock or private companies, the owners are shareholders or directors. In whatever case, the companies try to maximize their profits. Maximized profits come from striking a balance between rates high enough to be profitable and low enough to attract and retain customers.They never gouge their customers, or try to weasel out of valid contracts?Of course they do. There are literally thousands of insurance companies in this country. A certain percentage of the companies will be shady. Or even a certain percentage of employees at reputable companies will be shady. Either way, it's a poor argument to assert that the certainty of some insurance company employee, somewhere, mistreating a policyholder justifies draconian regulation of the entire industry.Are we to believe that NO regulation is necessary for this industry? I'm pretty sure I saw a post a couple of pages back asserting just that, was it yours?It was my post. And my opinion, and that of the study I linked to was that no pricing regulation is necessary. I think forms should be regulated and I think that regulators should spend most of their energies on solvency and customer care enforcement. Hide behind the "free market" all you want, I'll take my chances with government regulation and a dose of "red tape" on the side.Even if the red tape harms consumers more than the free market ever could. |
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barefool
- Senior Member
posted: May. 17, 2009 @ 9:27a
rzyzzy said:Maybe there's a lack of trust on my part, call me "ignorant" if you want... wait... you already did!There's no need to get huffy. Everyone is ignorant on some variety of subjects. They key to tranquility is not to get indignant about things which you know nothing about. I'm completely ignorant on the topic of brain surgery. I wouldn't know the frontal lobe from the occipital lobe. And that's the reason I do not inject myself into forum threads with posts from neurosurgeons and insist that the information they give out is BS. A neurosurgeon is an expert and I'm completely ignorant. Therefore, I keep quiet. You should learn something from my example. |
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denbo32
- Senior Member - 1K
posted: May. 18, 2009 @ 2:40p
Slydawg1 said:I have a high credit score so one would think that my rates would be cheap. My insurance is not cheaper than a normal person with a low credit score. I think the companies use whatever criteria they want in their favor.
Example: They will penalize a person with a low credit score and then not reward a person like myself with a 780 fico. They are shady! If your rates are lower then the person with a low credit score isn't that rewarding you for the 780 FICO? Assuming you and the other driver have everything else the same. |
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cheezedawg
- Senior Member - 2K
posted: May. 18, 2009 @ 3:17p
rzyzzy said:Sure, blame this on politics, communism, and restraint on the "free market". Anything except corporate greed. It's a forgone conclusion that insurance companies MUST collect more than they pay out to survive.The average for the insurance industry is that they pay out about 102% of their premiums in claims, and their profits are from investments (this was true ~10 years ago when I was closer to that industry). The problem is when they come up with junk science to support increased fees for everyone. I'm quite certain given enough red bull and phd students you could produce a 100 page document showing that people who wear blue socks are more likely to drive into trees.
The bottom line is that the insurance industry makes money by creating these divisions amongst people. By producing a plausible lie, they are able to charge everyone more, and distract from the real issue, which is their own unfettered greed.The success of an insurance company has always been and will always be their ability to appropriately price risk in a way that they can compete with other companies. It wasn't that long ago that they were charging people more for driving red cars - "the color of blood, the driver must have a secret deathwish".This is a myth. |
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chrisagile
- Member
posted: May. 21, 2009 @ 11:18a
This is just another excuse by insurers to charge more. I could also make a case that certain ethnic types, religious groups or women have higher accident rates as well. However, the logical person would see that there is no direct correlation between the person and the event (accident rates). If you ask me, there should only be only a handful of criteria that are used---and all should be tied to the PERSON instead of groupings that they share. 1.) Previous accident history for which they were at fault 2.) Drunk Driving/Vehicular manslaugher convictions. It is insane that any insurance company would take on a drunk driver again. 3.) type of vehicle. Otherwise, if we are going to discriminate on groupings, lets put all groupings on the table from blood type to credit score. |
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jcbrooks
- Senior Member
posted: May. 21, 2009 @ 11:44a
ap007 said:credit check means we need credit
but i dont need credit from an insurance co.
I can pay it in full at begining, why would they still insist on it? Everything counts in a statistical model. If I can show a relationship between people who buy Cheerios and have auto accidents, they'll start asking if you buy Cheerios. Correlation may not mean causation, but insurance models don't care. |
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barefool
- Senior Member
posted: May. 21, 2009 @ 11:57a
chrisagile said:This is just another excuse by insurers to charge more. I could also make a case that certain ethnic types, religious groups or women have higher accident rates as well. However, the logical person would see that there is no direct correlation between the person and the event (accident rates).More indignant ignorance. You should read the entire thread to see why 1) credit scoring doesn't lead to higher rates, on average, and 2) that there are valid statistical studies showing that credit is correlated with risk to insure. P.S., Women actually pay lower rates than men for auto insurance. Just something else you didn't know. |
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jcbrooks
- Senior Member
posted: May. 21, 2009 @ 12:00p
knacksac said:A big problem with lay people using graphs and statistics is that they frequently have no idea how to properly interpret them. Sure that graph makes it look like people with higher credit scores have lower claims, but that is not adjusted for all the other factors you have listed below. Perhaps people with bad credit tend to drive less safe cars, that would explain your nice little graph. (Graph 5 does show what I am talking about)
You just said it yourself! bad credit -> less safe cars -> higher claims
knacksac said:And in the end, this is a social choice, do we want to allow insurers to do this?
What - you mean charge a higher premium to the people who statistically make higher claims? Yes!
knacksac said:It is because of state registration laws that most people buy insurance.
State laws don't require home insurance, yet most people buy it.
knacksac said:We (through state government) made a choice to require it.
We require it so when the guy driving drunk in a $500 1989 Ford Escort with only $10 in his bank account plows into my car and causes $5k in damages ... I'm not screwed.
knacksac said:In fact, I'd bet if insurers had the choice they would only cover drivers that have never had accidents driving grannymobiles with 750 FICOs. People say that about everything. Credit Cars to risky borrowers, sub-prime loans, health insurance to sick people. Yet we have all of those, because the premium justifies the risk. |
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jcbrooks
- Senior Member
posted: May. 21, 2009 @ 12:18p
aeiouy said:Xnarg said:If someone thinks it's a great idea not to allow insurance companies to determine risk however they want, then I encourage him to start his own insurance company and not use the risk factors he sees as wasteful.
Fairly ignorant considering insurance for automobiles is something a person MUST have if they want to drive a car in most cases.
So the consumer doesn't have a choice. They have to essentially like it or lump it, and the insurance industry collectively knows this, that is why they cook up these angles to boost their profitability. It is not an open market place. It is a closed marketplace that is fixed against the consumer, because the consumer does not have a legitimate choice to just do without. Buying insurance is not required. If you deposit $35k with the California DMV, they will issue to you a self-insurance certificate. |
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Electronics4life
- Broke Member
posted: Jun. 29, 2009 @ 6:15a
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