The U.S. dollar reached its lowest point against the euro this year due to a myriad of forces including rising global stocks and commodities prices, low interest rates, and investors diversifying out of Treasury debt and into other assets including U.S. stocks with the Dow Jones industrial average approaching 9500 in late afternoon trading.
Stocks in Asia and Europe saw big gains, and gold topped $1,000 an ounce. (See "Stocks, Commodities Rally After Long Weekend.") Oil also gained 4.9%, or $3.31, to $71.33, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, due in part to Goldman Sachs affirming its year-long outlook. By midday trading one euro traded for $1.45, meanwhile the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell to its lowest level since September of 2008...............
Talk about selective vision. Just extending the time line by 4 months into May 2008 shows that US dollar has been at a lower point than what's quoted.
staci86
Senior Member
posted: Sep. 9, 2009 @ 6:52p
Reots said: But Gold has been the best investment to hold since the inflation of the 1970's...except for everything else!
Long term holdings of gold are not designed to out-compete growth-oriented investments. Gold is not a growth oriented investment, so you're comparing apples and oranges. Gold is a hedge, whose primary utility comes in helping you avoid financial armageddon. Gold is much more likely than equities or real estate to retain its value in the event of a major depression, assuming that the government doesn't confiscate it, as did FDR.
Think of gold as insurance against losing it all, not as an aggressive medium for growth.
mtl325
Senior Member
posted: Sep. 9, 2009 @ 7:02p
I love these posts. It's good to know when the general failure-to-understand public gets involved in a meme. Who cares that the world-wide deflation trade was to hide in the dollar? Does it matter that we're returning to status quo from before the crisis? Does it matter that the reflation rally involves people putting additional money in overseas risk assets? ECB rates are at 1%, Fed is at 0 - that is why the euro is valued strongly against the dollar. The general agreement is the the EU is in a much tougher spot than the US in this mess.
Granted the relative strength of the dollar is a concern, but it's not this pogo stick that the whim of traders can demolish. Some of the structural underpinnings of the dollar have come into question, but the dollar has two fundamental pins that cannot be undone in the near future #1 GDP and #1 military. The dollar's relative decline is not a sign of hyper-inflation. Can't people at least wait until we have inflation before getting all worked up about hyper-inflation?
The concept of gold as a hedge or insurance against a financial meltdown is largely an unproven myth, in that, in modern times, there is no evidence it has worked or will ever work. If there was no food to be found anywhere, would you trade your cellar full of food for a few gold coins? I wouldn't.
It has also been shown to be shaky even as an inflation hedge. During some inflationary times, gold has actually performed poorly.
Gold has benefited most from wives' tales and the masses hearing that "gold is a great hedge" for so long that they believe it, akin to "a house is the best investment you can ever make." It's purely a speculative play, no more, no less. I would never buy it in any situation other than to attempt to sell it later for profit.
geebeebee said: The concept of gold as a hedge or insurance against a financial meltdown is largely an unproven myth, in that, in modern times, there is no evidence it has worked or will ever work. If there was no food to be found anywhere, would you trade your cellar full of food for a few gold coins? I wouldn't.
It has also been shown to be shaky even as an inflation hedge. During some inflationary times, gold has actually performed poorly.
Gold has benefited most from wives' tales and the masses hearing that "gold is a great hedge" for so long that they believe it, akin to "a house is the best investment you can ever make." It's purely a speculative play, no more, no less. I would never buy it in any situation other than to attempt to sell it later for profit.Here's a graph that agrees with you, and it can be found on any cover for the book Stocks For the Long Run:
*Adding OP to ignore, no wait, I can't dothat because I am still using CLASSIC FW!*
staci86
Senior Member
posted: Sep. 9, 2009 @ 7:37p
geebeebee said: The concept of gold as a hedge or insurance against a financial meltdown is largely an unproven myth, in that, in modern times, there is no evidence it has worked or will ever work. If there was no food to be found anywhere, would you trade your cellar full of food for a few gold coins? I wouldn't.
It has also been shown to be shaky even as an inflation hedge. During some inflationary times, gold has actually performed poorly.
Gold has benefited most from wives' tales and the masses hearing that "gold is a great hedge" for so long that they believe it, akin to "a house is the best investment you can ever make." It's purely a speculative play, no more, no less. I would never buy it in any situation other than to attempt to sell it later for profit. You have disproven your own point with your post. Gold is valuable as a hedge because everyone believes it is valuable as a hedge, as has been the case since before recorded history. Gold is not a fundamentally useful commodity (as far as common citizens are concerned); it is a medium of exchange, one which cannot be manipulated by governments or banks during times of financial chaos, in which nobody trusts governments or banks.
Your argument pertaining to trading a cellar full of food for gold coins is specious. No rational person is going to trade away their very survival for something not necessary for survival. However, during those times of uncertainty, farmers and grocers will trade away their extra food for gold, much more readily than they will trade it away for an untrusted and heavily inflated fiat currency.
Why do you think FDR confiscated gold during the Great Depression? The answer is simple: the bartering of gold posed a threat to the government's control over the money supply. The government knew it could never retain control over the money supply and fight the depression if citizens placed their confidence in a non-governmental medium of exchange.
Show me one medium of exchange more trusted than gold, throughout the course of human history, and I will concede my point.
I love FW. Everytime a troll tries to spread alarmist anger, the FW community shoots down the drivel.
WalStMonky
Happy Member
posted: Sep. 9, 2009 @ 8:54p
mtl325 said: Can't people at least wait until we have inflation before getting all worked up about hyper-inflation?
I've been waiting, and waiting, and waiting. I hate to wait! (steam coming out ears) The US gov't can't do anything right!
WalStMonky
Happy Member
posted: Sep. 9, 2009 @ 8:59p
staci86 said: Show me one medium of exchange more trusted than gold, throughout the course of human history, and I will concede my point.
Sex.
But you know, they call prostitution the world's 'oldest' profession, and that just can't be true. The first John needed something with which to pay the first prostitute, and from that I infer that he had a profession. Another urban legend bites the dust.
WalStMonky said: staci86 said: Show me one medium of exchange more trusted than gold, throughout the course of human history, and I will concede my point.
Sex.
But you know, they call prostitution the world's 'oldest' profession, and that just can't be true. The first John needed something with which to pay the first prostitute, and from that I infer that he had a profession. Another urban legend bites the dust.
Subsistence (or even better, sustenance) is not a profession.
The first "John" was a farmer, eeking out enough to live on. Some poor girl (who couldn't farm, and had no family (lived on the "trails")) asked for some of his "extra" food...
He said I have no extra, but I could let you eat here, and SLEEP HERE! Girl was so happy to be fed she "put out". John said come back tomorrow, and I'll feed you again, as long I get the same "happy ending".
Thus PROSTITUTION was born.... and soon after, girl quit giving "repayment", and thus DATING was born..... and after that, girl wouldn't leave, ate more than her share, got pregnant, and complained all the time... thus MARRIAGE was born!!!
<<end of history lesson>>
staci86
Senior Member
posted: Sep. 9, 2009 @ 9:30p
WalStMonky said: staci86 said: Show me one medium of exchange more trusted than gold, throughout the course of human history, and I will concede my point.
Sex.
But you know, they call prostitution the world's 'oldest' profession, and that just can't be true. The first John needed something with which to pay the first prostitute, and from that I infer that he had a profession. Another urban legend bites the dust. If prostitution is a medium of exchange, then how would a merchant go about making change? That just seems awkward.
Is that the adult pervert's equivalent to kids trading baseball cards?
No more awkward than making change with gold chunks. A gold-backed paper currency and credit system is another story. But nothing says there can't be a sex based credit card.
But you know, they call prostitution the world's 'oldest' profession, and that just can't be true.The version I heard is prostitution is the "second" oldest profession. The oldest is killing another human being.
catanpirate
Senior Member
posted: Sep. 9, 2009 @ 10:07p
staci86 said: Show me one medium of exchange more trusted than gold, throughout the course of human history, and I will concede my point.Commodities.
staci86
Senior Member
posted: Sep. 9, 2009 @ 10:14p
catanpirate said: Commodities. Which commodity do you suggest serves as a more trusted medium of exchange than gold? Inherently useful commodities can serve as a store of value in a barter-based economy, but they are not a medium of exchange.
staci86 said: geebeebee said: The concept of gold as a hedge or insurance against a financial meltdown is largely an unproven myth, in that, in modern times, there is no evidence it has worked or will ever work. If there was no food to be found anywhere, would you trade your cellar full of food for a few gold coins? I wouldn't.
It has also been shown to be shaky even as an inflation hedge. During some inflationary times, gold has actually performed poorly.
Gold has benefited most from wives' tales and the masses hearing that "gold is a great hedge" for so long that they believe it, akin to "a house is the best investment you can ever make." It's purely a speculative play, no more, no less. I would never buy it in any situation other than to attempt to sell it later for profit. You have disproven your own point with your post. Gold is valuable as a hedge because everyone believes it is valuable as a hedge, as has been the case since before recorded history. Gold is not a fundamentally useful commodity (as far as common citizens are concerned); it is a medium of exchange, one which cannot be manipulated by governments or banks during times of financial chaos, in which nobody trusts governments or banks.
Your argument pertaining to trading a cellar full of food for gold coins is specious. No rational person is going to trade away their very survival for something not necessary for survival. However, during those times of uncertainty, farmers and grocers will trade away their extra food for gold, much more readily than they will trade it away for an untrusted and heavily inflated fiat currency.
Why do you think FDR confiscated gold during the Great Depression? The answer is simple: the bartering of gold posed a threat to the government's control over the money supply. The government knew it could never retain control over the money supply and fight the depression if citizens placed their confidence in a non-governmental medium of exchange.
Show me one medium of exchange more trusted than gold, throughout the course of human history, and I will concede my point.Your mistake is arguing with a bunch of people who are invested in trusting the government.
staci86 said: You have disproven your own point with your post. Gold is valuable as a hedge because everyone believes it is valuable as a hedge, as has been the case since before recorded history. Gold is not a fundamentally useful commodity (as far as common citizens are concerned); it is a medium of exchange, one which cannot be manipulated by governments or banks during times of financial chaos, in which nobody trusts governments or banks.
Your argument pertaining to trading a cellar full of food for gold coins is specious. No rational person is going to trade away their very survival for something not necessary for survival. However, during those times of uncertainty, farmers and grocers will trade away their extra food for gold, much more readily than they will trade it away for an untrusted and heavily inflated fiat currency.
Why do you think FDR confiscated gold during the Great Depression? The answer is simple: the bartering of gold posed a threat to the government's control over the money supply. The government knew it could never retain control over the money supply and fight the depression if citizens placed their confidence in a non-governmental medium of exchange.
Show me one medium of exchange more trusted than gold, throughout the course of human history, and I will concede my point.Ridiculous. I guess you misunderstood me. Those that believe in wives' tales believe it is a hedge; educated and smart investors believe it is nothing more than a speculation. So which camp are you in?
So, I can take my Krugerrands over to Wal-Mart and buy some weapons? Wanna bet on how that turns out?
delzy said: staci86 said: Show me one medium of exchange more trusted than gold, throughout the course of human history, and I will concede my point.Your mistake is arguing with a bunch of people who are invested in trusting the government.Guess you found a partner for this stance, staci. Now, I've got some truther theories to run by you...
geebeebee said: delzy said: staci86 said: Show me one medium of exchange more trusted than gold, throughout the course of human history, and I will concede my point.Your mistake is arguing with a bunch of people who are invested in trusting the government.Guess you found a partner for this stance, staci. Now, I've got some truther theories to run by you...Maybe you can start with the 20 bullet points. Maybe it would be easier to just go straight to the footnotes.
staci86
Senior Member
posted: Sep. 9, 2009 @ 10:52p
geebeebee said: Ridiculous. I guess you misunderstood me. Those that believe in wives' tales believe it is a hedge; educated and smart investors believe it is nothing more than a speculation. So which camp are you in? You posted a failed argument, and are now presenting a false dichotomy.
Gold sitting in a safe is not income producing as is invested capital. So, therefore, it can either be held for speculative purposes, or it can be held for insurance purposes, neither of which necessarily must be exclusionary to the other.
If you believe in a coming fluctuation in the price of gold, then you can take a speculative position in either the long or short direction.
If you believe there is a non-negligible chance of economic chaos at some point in your future life, then you can hold gold as a store of value.
Or, you can do both.
These "educated investors" you speak of discuss investment strategies designed to generate returns, and evaluated on the basis of their returns versus their risk. This analysis does not attempt to measure the value of a portfolio if the very social institutions which make portfolios possible are interrupted.
You are confusing two separate issues - generation of value through investment returns, and insurance against complete loss due to societal problems. As is true with all forms of insurance, you do pay a premium. In the case of bullion, that premium is the opportunity cost of the money used to acquire it not having been invested in another asset.
You may want to review your Depression-era history to understand just how crippled paper money, banking systems, and equities can become when the societal mechanisms which give them value are not functioning.
geebeebee said: So, I can take my Krugerrands over to Wal-Mart and buy some weapons? Wanna bet on how that turns out? This is a terrible example, which you have no doubt chosen deliberately to make a straw man attack against using gold as a form of insurance.
First, gold as a tangible store of value is not intended to be used when fiat currency is functioning normally, as it is now. If you want to buy a gun from WalMart, right now, you need dollars for that. We are in a serious recession, not a major depression.
Second, WalMart is a horrible choice of merchants. WalMart operates on a JIT inventory philosophy, and is a very large corporation run from the top down, in which store employees have no authority to trade as the market demands. These two characteristics make it one of the first operations that will be disrupted during economic chaos. WalMart will have a difficult time keeping food in stock during a major economic disruption; guns will likely be sold out.
So, if you want to know if your Krugerrands can be used to buy a gun at WalMart tomorrow, then no, they cannot.
However, if your goal is to buy a gun from one of your local gun dealers, who maintains a sizable stock, can negotiate for himself, and will probably be the only one with guns should economic chaos break out, then good luck getting him to accept your Federal Reserve Notes when he's not sure if they will be worth anything a week after the purchase. In that case, Krugerrands will close the deal.
Of course, your needs during that time may not include guns. It could be food, energy, clothing, medicine, labor, or anything else. That is why having some gold on hand has an insurance value to it, since you don't know now what you may need ten years from now, but regardless of what it is, gold has a better chance of being able to buy it than anything else.
If you don't happen to need any goods, gold can still be converted to whatever foreign currency passes for hard currency if your native currency hyperinflates.
I'm not advocating the stockpiling of gold, like the kooky survivalists do. I am only trying to explain how it holds value, and why you might want some of it on hand, just in case.
Case and point: after Hurricane Katrina hit, electronic money (bankcards) had zero value in the affected areas, and could not be used as a medium of exchange. Likewise, checks were also viewed with suspicion, and could not be exchanged readily for goods and services. Only paper currency held dollar value, which left those who wanted interest on every last cent of their wealth without the ability to trade. Those without cash often had to barter away their jewelry in order to obtain needed goods and services.
If the dollar goes to hell, or if the institutions which hold your deposits and securities fail, or for whatever reason you can no longer access your money, then how much will you have left? Are you 100% dependent on financial institutions for your ability to procure goods and services?
delzy said: geebeebee said: delzy said: staci86 said: Show me one medium of exchange more trusted than gold, throughout the course of human history, and I will concede my point.Your mistake is arguing with a bunch of people who are invested in trusting the government.Guess you found a partner for this stance, staci. Now, I've got some truther theories to run by you...Maybe you can start with the 20 bullet points.LOL. I know you guys are easy marks, but you DO realize that is fiction, right? Link
Edit: Heh, after reading all of the comments, all you guys really DO think it's real! Wow. You guys need to be careful -- you'd be a dream group for a cult leader.
geebeebee said: delzy said: geebeebee said: delzy said: staci86 said: Show me one medium of exchange more trusted than gold, throughout the course of human history, and I will concede my point.Your mistake is arguing with a bunch of people who are invested in trusting the government.Guess you found a partner for this stance, staci. Now, I've got some truther theories to run by you...Maybe you can start with the 20 bullet points.LOL. I know you guys are easy marks, but you DO realize that is fiction, right? LinkYour comment conveniently dismisses the bullet points, but they are mainstream documented facts that have never been officially addressed. Even if the interview is fiction, the referenced and footnoted facts are not. Why are you so invested in the truthfulness of the government? Is it because you keep no gold or guns on hand?
mhesidence
Dismembered Member
posted: Sep. 9, 2009 @ 11:05p
nycll said: No more awkward than making change with gold chunks. A gold-backed paper currency and credit system is another story. But nothing says there can't be a sex based credit card.
Lol, it'd be illegal in the US except in Nevada. Even so, I wonder what 100,000 rewards points would get
staci86 said: You posted a failed argument, and are now presenting a false dichotomy.
... [Various further claims of logical fallacies, per usual when you are stumped] ...
If the dollar goes to hell, or if the institutions which hold your deposits and securities fail, or for whatever reason you can no longer access your money, then how much will you have left? Are you 100% dependent on financial institutions for your ability to procure goods and services?A lot of blather without answering the question. Name one time in relatively modern history where gold was used as a primary form of exchange during a financial collapse? It's a myth, but glad you fell for it. And no, someone trading a piece of jewelry to someone for a loaf of bread after Katrina (a curious example, coming from you, BTW) doesn't count. That is bartering/trading, which is ACTUALLY the oldest form of exchange, way before gold. Gold is voodoo -- it (rarely) actually does anything, it doesn't provide any basic needs. I contend it is absolutely worthless in an economic catastrophe, and you haven't proven that it isn't. If everyone is half-starved, without basic necessities, tell me exactly why I would give you ANYTHING of mine for a piece of gold?
delzy said: geebeebee said: delzy said: geebeebee said: delzy said: staci86 said: Show me one medium of exchange more trusted than gold, throughout the course of human history, and I will concede my point.Your mistake is arguing with a bunch of people who are invested in trusting the government.Guess you found a partner for this stance, staci. Now, I've got some truther theories to run by you...Maybe you can start with the 20 bullet points.LOL. I know you guys are easy marks, but you DO realize that is fiction, right? LinkYour comment conveniently dismisses the bullet points, but they are mainstream documented facts that have never been officially addressed. Even if the interview is fiction, the referenced and footnoted facts are not. Why are you so invested in the truthfulness of the government? Is it because you keep no gold or guns on hand?Didn't say anything about guns, but unless I can defend myself throwing gold coins at people, it is worthless to me in a true disaster. And it would be for you, too.
Regarding guns, regardless of how big of a stockpile I have, I am not naive enough to think that I could really defend myself against our military if they decide to overrun my house. If you actually think you can and it makes you sleep better, good for you. I guess we all need our own happy place, no matter how ridiculous and poorly-thought out.
You do realize that nearly all of your fellow infowars readers thought that interview was real, right? What does that say about your brethren?
staci86 said: You have disproven your own point with your post. Gold is valuable as a hedge because everyone believes it is valuable as a hedge, as has been the case since before recorded history.Oh, since you love to attempt to point out various fallacies in logic, I thought I would present my equivalent to your gold quote:
I said: Houses are a valuable investment because everyone believes they are a valuable investment.
geebeebee said: Regarding guns, regardless of how big of a stockpile I have, I am not naive enough to think that I could really defend myself against our military if they decide to overrun my house.
Ever see "Red Dawn"? Not that it was "our military", but still.... Do you live in Texas?
*Being retired military (which has a negative connotation now the username retmil is redding every one of my posts, and "blathering like tripleB"), unless they come in with really smart weapons.. AND are willing to kill neighbors, the military cannot win a ground war AGAINST US Citizens... Revolt by the military is more likely!*
**Waitng for retmil to finish searching my username, so I can see the red he has added**
geebeebee said: So, I can take my Krugerrands over to Wal-Mart and buy some weapons? Wanna bet on how that turns out?No, Wal-Mart will be converted to a gathering center for vaccinations and official food distribution. It will no longer be a store. If you want to trade your gold for weapons, you could talk to me.
mhesidence
Dismembered Member
posted: Sep. 9, 2009 @ 11:27p
geebeebee said: staci86 said: You posted a failed argument, and are now presenting a false dichotomy.
... [Various further claims of logical fallacies, per usual when you are stumped] ...
If the dollar goes to hell, or if the institutions which hold your deposits and securities fail, or for whatever reason you can no longer access your money, then how much will you have left? Are you 100% dependent on financial institutions for your ability to procure goods and services?A lot of blather without answering the question. Name one time in relatively modern history where gold was used as a primary form of exchange during a financial collapse?
Why does it have to be the "primary" form of exchange?
It's a myth, but glad you fell for it. And no, someone trading a piece of jewelry to someone for a loaf of bread after Katrina (a curious example, coming from you, BTW) doesn't count. That is bartering/trading, which is ACTUALLY the oldest form of exchange, way before gold.
Why wouldn't it count? You need a merchant to put out a sign that says 1oz of gold for a sandwitch for it not to be bartering? During a mondern "finacal collapse" everything is going to be "bartering".
Gold is voodoo -- it (rarely) actually does anything, it doesn't provide any basic needs. I contend it is absolutely worthless in an economic catastrophe, and you haven't proven that it isn't. If everyone is half-starved, without basic necessities, tell me exactly why I would give you ANYTHING of mine for a piece of gold?
Investment, sell your sandwitch and be hungry for a day and next week buy a flat screen TV with that ounce of gold.
Technologist said: geebeebee said: Regarding guns, regardless of how big of a stockpile I have, I am not naive enough to think that I could really defend myself against our military if they decide to overrun my house.
Ever see "Red Dawn"? Not that it was "our military", but still.... Do you live in Texas?
*Being retired military (which has a negative connotation now the username retmil is redding every one of my posts, and "blathering like tripleB"), unless they come in with really smart weapons.. AND are willing to kill neighbors, the military cannot win a ground war AGAINST US Citizens... Revolt by the military is more likely!*
**Waitng for retmil to finish searching my username, so I can see the red he has added**Heh, I agree...however, I think delzy just thinks they're trying to get HIM.
At some point, however, with modern weaponry, you do have to realize that we are, to some degree, subject to government whims. It's not that I have absolute faith in our government, it's just that I think the chances are so remote of that happening that other things take priority in my mind, like getting another beer from the fridge.
delzy said: geebeebee said: So, I can take my Krugerrands over to Wal-Mart and buy some weapons? Wanna bet on how that turns out?No, Wal-Mart will be converted to a gathering center for vaccinations and official food distribution. It will no longer be a store. If you want to trade your gold for weapons, you could talk to me.Heh, alright, will do. But don't you know that it's GASOLINE you want when the U.S. turns Mad Max?
Technologist said: geebeebee said: Regarding guns, regardless of how big of a stockpile I have, I am not naive enough to think that I could really defend myself against our military if they decide to overrun my house.
Ever see "Red Dawn"? Not that it was "our military", but still.... Do you live in Texas?
*Being retired military (which has a negative connotation now the username retmil is redding every one of my posts, and "blathering like tripleB"), unless they come in with really smart weapons.. AND are willing to kill neighbors, the military cannot win a ground war AGAINST US Citizens... Revolt by the military is more likely!*
**Waitng for retmil to finish searching my username, so I can see the red he has added**That is why FEMA's National Level Exercise 09 integrated foreign troops from 14 nations. But I clearly agree with you that the disorganized militia is a sleeping dragon. We'll just have to see how the swine/pig/human flu pandemic will be used to end the 2nd Amendment and posse comitatus as the dollar is crushed and the new world currency is introduced. Exciting times, no doubt.
mhesidence said: Why does it have to be the "primary" form of exchange?Well, that is the argument, assuming the dollar is done.
mhesidence said: Why wouldn't it count? You need a merchant to put out a sign that says 1oz of gold for a sandwitch for it not to be bartering? During a mondern "finacal collapse" everything is going to be "bartering". staci was referring to gold essentially taking the place of the dollar in an economic collapse. Informal trading isn't really a standard exchange.
mhesidence said: Investment, sell your sandwitch and be hungry for a day and next week buy a flat screen TV with that ounce of gold.I guess I'm thinking of a more catastrophic collapse, where flat screens would be the least of your needs. I mean, anything can theoretically be used as a means of exchange, but in a horrible collapse, you would be better off bartering useful items (food, water, guns, gas, etc.) as gold will hold no "desperation" value of its own, as it can't supply basic human needs.
Skipping 45 Messages...
mtl325
Senior Member
posted: Sep. 14, 2009 @ 9:36p
Money * Velocity = Price * Quantity. Velocity is at historically low levels. Controlling for Q, P cannot increase regardless of M.
Show me V when making an inflation argument and maybe I'll start to pay attention.
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