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defjukie said:   
usernamemax20charact said:   Why are airlines down so much? Any news? Is it really because oil's up 6.6% today?

AAL down 6% and 10% from recent highs
ALK down 4.5%
DAL down 5.5%
LUV down 3.5%
SAVE down 7%
UAL down 5.5%
VA down 8%

If you buy into what the technicals say, all of them show more down side

VIX climbing higher and higher past hour

  
it is my opinion that this is going to be a bad year for airlines.

also, to update my broader view from last year (some might remember that I was looking for a massive market correction sometime in the 2nd half of the year)... I am extremely bullish now.  Everything's going up up up.  Except maybe metals (still looking for one more low there).  Correction cancelled for now, maybe in 2016 or 2017.

  Lowest fuel prices in 6+ years, increased biz travel, etc. etc....why would this be a bad year?

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largeeyes said:   
defjukie said:   
usernamemax20charact said:   Why are airlines down so much? Any news? Is it really because oil's up 6.6% today?

AAL down 6% and 10% from recent highs
ALK down 4.5%
DAL down 5.5%
LUV down 3.5%
SAVE down 7%
UAL down 5.5%
VA down 8%

If you buy into what the technicals say, all of them show more down side

VIX climbing higher and higher past hour

  
it is my opinion that this is going to be a bad year for airlines.

also, to update my broader view from last year (some might remember that I was looking for a massive market correction sometime in the 2nd half of the year)... I am extremely bullish now.  Everything's going up up up.  Except maybe metals (still looking for one more low there).  Correction cancelled for now, maybe in 2016 or 2017.

  Lowest fuel prices in 6+ years, increased biz travel, etc. etc....why would this be a bad year?

  I believe itll be a good year for airlines cause of the reasons you stated. Also they've been getting me massive gains in 2014 hoping to continue in 2015 but I bought too high (yesterday) ughh except JBLU which I went back in near the dip in the morning.

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TonySpero said:   
SaulHudson said:   Random question... does anyone have trouble trading options with Merrill Edge? I can't get it to recognize the cash in the "ML Direct Deposit" sweep account. Keep getting error messages that I'm exceeding my allowable trade amount. Googling not helping.
  What's your aggregate account balance?

Merrill Edge: Clients seeking to write uncovered puts and calls are required to maintain an aggregate account balance of $150,000

  They are covered, but the site is acting as if I don't have the cash to cover.

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Nobody remember how airlines could never stay profitable or out of bankruptcy?

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If you do a thread search, I think you can find me saying 10+ times something like:

"Is the market open? Yes? Then it's a good day to short airline stocks!"

That's been a loser for a little bit, but I'd still rather short an airline than go long most of what's out there.

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Usually GILD does not do good after earnings, even with their hefty profits. I may sell some OTM put credit spreads around 98-97.

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rajeshh said:   Usually GILD does not do good after earnings, even with their hefty profits. I may sell some OTM put credit spreads around 98-97.
Curiosity got the best of me....

Of the past 8 quarters, stock closed higher 6 out of 8 times on day after reporting.
Of the past 8 quarters, stock closed higher (vs closing price on earnings day) 6 out of 8 times on 2nd day after reporting.
Of the past 8 quarters, stock closed higher (vs closing price on earnings day) 6 out of 8 times on 3rd day after reporting.

Seems like stock does okay after earnings to me.

Q3 2014 on 10/28/2014 after close: missed EPS estimates by $0.08
10/28: closed $113.45
10/29: closed $110.72 ; low of $108.00 ; high of $113.43
10/30: closed $114.22 ; low of $110.60 ; high of $114.35
10/31: closed $112.00 ; low of $110.76 ; high of $116.83

Q2 2014 on 7/23/2014 after close: beat EPS estimates by $0.57
7/23: closed $90.34
7/24: closed $90.54 ; low of $89.89 ; high of $92.97
7/25: closed $89.84 ; low of $88.70 ; high of $90.78
7/28: closed $91.46 ; low of $89.93 ; high of $91.73

Q1 2014 on 4/22/2014 after close: beat EPS estimates by $0.57
4/22: closed $72.86
4/23: closed $73.86 ; low of $73.76 ; high of $75.88
4/24: closed $74.08 ; low of $71.63 ; high of $75.00
4/25: closed $73.90 ; low of $73.43 ; high of $74.88

Q4 2013 on 2/4/2014 after close: beat EPS estimates by $0.05
2/4: closed $82.02
2/5: closed $78.15 ; low of $76.71 ; high of $82.00
2/6: closed $76.50 ; low of $76.26 ; high of $79.50
2/7: closed $78.75 ; low of $75.70 ; high of $78.81

Q3 2013 on 10/29/2013 after close: beat EPS estimates by $0.04
10/29: closed $69.50
10/30: closed $72.67 ; low of $71.43 ; high of $73.20
10/31: closed $71.18 ; low of $70.97 ; high of $72.77
11/01: closed $70.97 ; low of $70.42 ; high of $71.49

Q2 2013 on 7/25/2013 after close: matched EPS estimates
7/25: closed $60.86
7/26: closed $62.57 ; low of $61.58 ; high of $64.04
7/29: closed $62.02 ; low of $61.57 ; high of $62.82
7/30: closed $61.73 ; low of $61.46 ; high of $62.28

Q1 2013 on 5/2/2013 after close: missed EPS estimates by $0.02
5/2: closed $52.18
5/3: closed $55.15 ; low of $54.52 ; high of $56.35
5/6: closed $54.43 ; low of $54.12 ; high of $55.70
5/7: closed $53.13 ; low of $52.82 ; high of $54.60

Q4 2012 on 2/4/4/2013 after close: beat EPS estimates by $0.02
2/4: closed $39.59
2/5: closed $40.54 ; low of $40.15 ; high of $41.34
2/6: closed $39.91 ; low of $39.55 ; high of $40.62
2/7: closed $40.36 ; low of $39.48 ; high of $40.46

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MSFT CHARTS (121.54kB)
Disclaimer
sandy05 said:   
Beernuts82 said:   
Bend3r said:   Anyone think MSFT looks good again at ~$41?  I think I will re-investigate them.  I last purchased MSFT around the ~$40.50 level immediately after a prior ER crash and sold at $48.
  
I was just thinking this too. The March calls are tempting at these levels. 

  I bought it at $45 thinking that was a good deal considering it was trading at $50 not too long ago. Hope I don't become bagholder for long time

  OK, here is the MSFT chart indicators showing buy signals (stolen concept from that free blog site, which really is not that bad).  Coming close to the next support line of about $39.50 after plummeting from the most recent peak of about $47.  Currently about $40.50.  Using the reward:risk idea from that free blog site we get the following reward:risk ratio...   $6.50 on the upside/ $1 to the down side = 6.50 reward-to-risk ratio for short term trading tactics.  Anything greater than 3 is suppose to be OK; the greater the better. 

You can also see from the chart that buying at $45 on the 12/16/14 very close to buy signal would have been fine if you sold it a week later for about $48.  That would have been 6.7% return for just a week.  That blog has helped me on my short term trading tactics... basically get out on gains of 5-10% if they occur in just 3-4 weeks or less, then move on to another buy signal trade.  I suppose you could just let the stock sit for longer term play, but for me that is a different tactic for a different phase of the economic cycle.

Fundamentally:  earnings recently was $0.71 which is a drop from year ago quarter of $0.78.  Now the most recent trailing four quarters EPS is about $2.48, which makes the current PE $40.50/$2.48 = 16.33.  So, you need to beat the following year-ago quarter EPS by at least 16.33% to show MSFT is out-pacing the PE.  That year-ago quarter EPS was $0.68... so the next quarter EPS needs to be at least $0.79/sh.  If you think MSFT can do that then you are more inclined to follow the indicators on those charts as a buying opportunity.  If you think MSFT will not do that, then the above indicator charts are likely too early to act upon.  If you think MSFT will do WORSE than the year-ago quarter EPS of $0.68, then move on to some other company because negative EPS growth kills stock prices.
 

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luckytbal said:   
FWjunkie2 said:   
FWjunkie2 said:   BIIB, Biogen, will announce EPS tomorrow.  Expected EPS is $3.74.  A year ago quarter had $2.34.  That would be almost 60% earnings growth !!  That would also make trailing 4 quarters earnings total of $13.50  ($2.47 + $3.49 + $3.80 + $3.74 ). At current price of $350/sh that gives a PE of about 26.  But the following quarter will also be compared to the previous year ago quarter which made only $2.47/sh, so the next quarter sill likely blow away those results with another >$3.50/sh quarter. or over 40% earnings growth.  I think BIIB is going to pop higher on the EPS results.  A PE of 30 x $13.50 TRAILING earnings (not even counting higher FUTURE earnings) would be $405/sh stock price. 

yikes... just bought FB at $73.50 during after hours trading on my limit order.  I'm surprised I got that price.

 

  My BIIB earnings came in as expected and the stock price took off to $380/sh after hours.  
FB finally responded to those incredible eps data and moved up to $78/sh after hours.

  excellent call

  Thanks.  It is always better to be lucky than good.  Let's see if we can be lucky again...
Check out GILD EPS expectations using the same protocol as I used for BIIB.  EPS release date for GILD is 2/3/15, expected to be $2.27 (whisper is even higher at $2.42).  Year-ago quarter was only $0.55/sh which makes the upcoming EPS more than 4x, or more than 300% EPS growth rate. That would also make the new trailing four quarter EPS ( $1.48 + $2.36 + $1.84 + $2.27 ) = $7.95/sh.  At current price of $104.80 / $7.95 = 13.19 PE !  The following year-ago quarter had earnings of $1.48 which will likely be easily surpassed because it still did not reflect the full revenues of the Hep C drugs.  Conservatively guessing another $2.27 EPS for the following quarter would mean a more than 50% EPS growth over that $1.48 quarter which give investors more to look forward to.  I think GILD price is going to pop on this quarter's EPS release.  Even at a PE of only 20 means:  20 x $7.95 = $159/sh stock price, from the current $104.80.
Disclaimer: I have long positions in stock and options.

I'm worried about the chart pattern for SPY and its indicators.  See that free blog site for their interpretation which is worrisome because the next support level is quite far below where it is now.  The tide of SPY is worth monitoring.

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