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pduan87 said: Tony, just go long with the rest of us!
Can't even get a decent red day, what's the world coming to?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Elf-69BFwnA&feature=youtu.be&t=1...

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umcsom said:   No body ever said apple fanboys were good with economics
http://www.cultofmac.com/313458/demand-apple-watch-use-third-worlds-gold/

  
Note to self, buy gold

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eyeballed HLF calls at close but couldn't dump the cash, did take 1 day QQQ Puts on the 108.5 again.

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Wow TUBE. They beat by 10% and then completely sandbagged their 2015 guidance numbers. Unbelievable.

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davef139 said:   
rgthree said:   I think Gold Edition Apple Watch will cost $10,000.

I think it will use 2 ounces of 18k gold like the Rolex President.

It will not be a mass market product but a true luxury item. I can see them selling 2 million of these in their first year. That may not seem like much but at $10,000 a pop that's $20B in revenue. No doubt the profit margin will be massive like 50-65%. So that about $8B in Net profit. Apple made about $40B in net profit in FY2014.

  

HAHAHAHAHAHAH

So in the first year, ONE product line is going to do more revenue by 8 times then Fossil a watch company does all year

  
They will sell 20-30 million Watches the first year.  

I'd say at least 7% will be Gold.  So yes between 1.5 and 2.0 million gold watches

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denbo32 said:   
rgthree said:   I think Gold Edition Apple Watch will cost $10,000.

I think it will use 2 ounces of 18k gold like the Rolex President.

It will not be a mass market product but a true luxury item. I can see them selling 2 million of these in their first year. That may not seem like much but at $10,000 a pop that's $20B in revenue. No doubt the profit margin will be massive like 50-65%. So that about $8B in Net profit. Apple made about $40B in net profit in FY2014.

  2M units of the gold edition watch??  Where can i bet the massive under on that?  If they sell 10k of them I'll be shocked.

2M of the watch overall seems like a high number to me, but that might be possible.  2M of the gold edition if that happens in the first year I'll be stunned.

  
LOL. You have not been following Apple for a while.

They will sell 2 million Watches (all styles)  in the first weekend.

I say between 1.5 and 2.0 gold watches in the first year

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pduan87 said:   
caycarem said:   
user1337 said:   I think I posted my returns before (after my huge FB option rake for $100k on $10k option bet, screenshot posted in this thread somewhere) where I basically was underperforming the market and finally reached parity after the FB win. Hard to say what my actual performance is because I move money out. Trust me I am considering calling it quits (going 100% index). I have no delusion in thinking I'm a brilliant investor. What I am doing is gambling. I happen to be in the right industry at the right time and know the right people to identify the gap in information/knowledge between the investment community and the actual industry. If you look at my bets they are in ad tech (FB, TWTR, TUBE, FUEL, others I left out for various reasons) which is my background. Oil was just dumb luck. HLF is I know the MLM industry very well. I don't really want to go into more detail.
Can you elaborate a TUBE upside? Are you also in FUEL for rebound?

  Didn't post earlier in the morning but I'm in 541 shares of TUBE @ 18.48.

  Ouch.

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largeeyes said:   
rgthree said:   
DavidScubadiver said:   I would like to put an end to the rumor that Apple is going to be manufacturing automobiles. It is as likely as them going into the business of selling hamburgers. Yes, they have sufficient cash to do whatever it is that they wish to do. No, they are not doing everything possible to move from being a technology company to something else.
  
So why did they hire a MercBenz president of R&D?  Why are they putting 200 employees on an auto-related project?  Why are they poaching engineers from Tesla and other car battery companies?

And why isn't cars considered Tech?  Ins't cars the largest Tech purchase most people make?

  If Apple makes cars, it will be the greatest evidence they have jumped the shark and are completely incapable of innovating.  Not sure you could hang enough SELL SELL SELL signs.

  
That makes zero sense.  The car industry is RIPE for innovation.

And Wall street don't care about 'innovation'.  They care about $$$ and profits.

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rgthree said:   
davef139 said:   
rgthree said:   I think Gold Edition Apple Watch will cost $10,000.

I think it will use 2 ounces of 18k gold like the Rolex President.

It will not be a mass market product but a true luxury item. I can see them selling 2 million of these in their first year. That may not seem like much but at $10,000 a pop that's $20B in revenue. No doubt the profit margin will be massive like 50-65%. So that about $8B in Net profit. Apple made about $40B in net profit in FY2014.

  

HAHAHAHAHAHAH

So in the first year, ONE product line is going to do more revenue by 8 times then Fossil a watch company does all year

  
They will sell 20-30 million Watches the first year.  

I'd say at least 7% will be Gold.  So yes between 1.5 and 2.0 million gold watches

  
You are certifiably out of your f***ing mind.

1)  That number means that the gold apple watch will sell triple what the entire rolex brand manufactures in a year (mens, womens, gold, stainless, submariner, GMT, explorer, datejust, daydate, daytona, etc etc etc), and at approximately double the price.

2)  Anyone who can spend 10k on a watch already has a 10k watch that isn't corny as hell.  You gonna wear your gold apple watch with your beats headphones and gator air jordans?  Give me a break.

3)  Apple fanboys are fashion conscious, and let me tell you, wearing a casio calculator on your wrist is nerdy as hell.

4)  Android has 80% of the phone market share, their consumers are more tech saavy and more likely early adopters of tech than the apple demographic, and they STILL sold <2 million android watches to date.

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Yeah who wants a gold apple watch?

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rgthree said:   
denbo32 said:   
rgthree said:   I think Gold Edition Apple Watch will cost $10,000.

I think it will use 2 ounces of 18k gold like the Rolex President.

It will not be a mass market product but a true luxury item. I can see them selling 2 million of these in their first year. That may not seem like much but at $10,000 a pop that's $20B in revenue. No doubt the profit margin will be massive like 50-65%. So that about $8B in Net profit. Apple made about $40B in net profit in FY2014.

  2M units of the gold edition watch??  Where can i bet the massive under on that?  If they sell 10k of them I'll be shocked.

2M of the watch overall seems like a high number to me, but that might be possible.  2M of the gold edition if that happens in the first year I'll be stunned.

  
LOL. You have not been following Apple for a while.

They will sell 2 million Watches (all styles)  in the first weekend.

I say between 1.5 and 2.0 gold watches in the first year

  This will be interesting to look back in a year from now.  

I follow appl very closely.  I'm just not sold on the demand for the watch.  I've been wrong before but who knows.

Your right that my 2M number for the year is a crazy low number compared to the projections.  I need to know more on the watch before i comment what it would sell,  for a device that might be out in the next few months no one really knows what functions it will provide.  

The ipad and iphones were life changers,  they become part of daily, hourly use.  Smart phones have changed the world over the last 5-8 years and of course apple has leading the charge there and will continue in the future.  

Apple sold roughly 75M phones last year?  maybe 30M iphones 6 and 6 Plus?   

Are you expecting the convertion rate from iphone to iwatch to be close to 50%?  I'm thinking close to 5% if lucky.

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rgthree said:   
largeeyes said:   
rgthree said:   
DavidScubadiver said:   I would like to put an end to the rumor that Apple is going to be manufacturing automobiles. It is as likely as them going into the business of selling hamburgers. Yes, they have sufficient cash to do whatever it is that they wish to do. No, they are not doing everything possible to move from being a technology company to something else.
  
So why did they hire a MercBenz president of R&D?  Why are they putting 200 employees on an auto-related project?  Why are they poaching engineers from Tesla and other car battery companies?

And why isn't cars considered Tech?  Ins't cars the largest Tech purchase most people make?

  If Apple makes cars, it will be the greatest evidence they have jumped the shark and are completely incapable of innovating.  Not sure you could hang enough SELL SELL SELL signs.

  
That makes zero sense.  The car industry is RIPE for innovation.

And Wall street don't care about 'innovation'.  They care about $$$ and profits.

  I'll agree this is true,  personally do see a lot changes happening to the auto world over the next 10 years.  no idea if it will be APPL or not but.  

rated:
jd2010 said:   
rgthree said:   
davef139 said:   
rgthree said:   I think Gold Edition Apple Watch will cost $10,000.

I think it will use 2 ounces of 18k gold like the Rolex President.

It will not be a mass market product but a true luxury item. I can see them selling 2 million of these in their first year. That may not seem like much but at $10,000 a pop that's $20B in revenue. No doubt the profit margin will be massive like 50-65%. So that about $8B in Net profit. Apple made about $40B in net profit in FY2014.

  

HAHAHAHAHAHAH

So in the first year, ONE product line is going to do more revenue by 8 times then Fossil a watch company does all year

  
They will sell 20-30 million Watches the first year.  

I'd say at least 7% will be Gold.  So yes between 1.5 and 2.0 million gold watches

  
You are certifiably out of your f***ing mind.

That number means that the gold apple watch will sell triple what the entire rolex brand manufactures in a year (mens, womens, gold, stainless, submariner, GMT, explorer, datejust, daydate, daytona, etc etc etc), and at approximately double the price.

Anyone who can spend 10k on a watch already has a 10k watch that isn't corny as hell.  You gonna wear your gold apple watch with your beats headphones and gator air jordans?  Give me a break.

  
Circa 2012 - "Everyone one who wants an iPhone has already bought one......"

Apple does magical things.  I say 1 million gold watches sold in the first year is a lock.  If it takes off could be 2 million.

And $10k for a 2 ounce gold watch is not ridiculous.  Show me a 18k gold watch with 2 ounces of gold that sells for under $10k.  There isn't any.

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denbo32 said:   
rgthree said:   
denbo32 said:   
rgthree said:   I think Gold Edition Apple Watch will cost $10,000.

I think it will use 2 ounces of 18k gold like the Rolex President.

It will not be a mass market product but a true luxury item. I can see them selling 2 million of these in their first year. That may not seem like much but at $10,000 a pop that's $20B in revenue. No doubt the profit margin will be massive like 50-65%. So that about $8B in Net profit. Apple made about $40B in net profit in FY2014.

  2M units of the gold edition watch??  Where can i bet the massive under on that?  If they sell 10k of them I'll be shocked.

2M of the watch overall seems like a high number to me, but that might be possible.  2M of the gold edition if that happens in the first year I'll be stunned.

  
LOL. You have not been following Apple for a while.

They will sell 2 million Watches (all styles)  in the first weekend.

I say between 1.5 and 2.0 gold watches in the first year

  This will be interesting to look back in a year from now.  

I follow appl very closely.  I'm just not sold on the demand for the watch.  I've been wrong before but who knows.

Your right that my 2M number for the year is a crazy low number compared to the projections.  I need to know more on the watch before i comment what it would sell,  for a device that might be out in the next few months no one really knows what functions it will provide.  

The ipad and iphones were life changers,  they become part of daily, hourly use.  Smart phones have changed the world over the last 5-8 years and of course apple has leading the charge there and will continue in the future.  

Apple sold roughly 75M phones last year?  maybe 30M iphones 6 and 6 Plus?   

Are you expecting the convertion rate from iphone to iwatch to be close to 50%?  I'm thinking close to 5% if lucky.

  
I think I read somewhere that 30% of active iPhone users are 6 or 6+.  Also the 5S works with the watch also.  

What could be more life changing then something strapped directly on you?  Plus you need to take into consideration the style aspect also.  

Pretty good sources said that Apple ordered 6 million units for launch.  

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Obligatory Pun. Goes down the TUBE.

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They will not be able to make 1 million gold watches. However many they do make, they will sell out.

Freaking TUBE. They beat Q4 guidance handily but they basically sandbagged and lowered 2015 guidance. Listening to call now. Analysts better grill them on it.

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2 million gold Apple watches a year? Are there really that many people out there who'd drop $10K for a (disposable) watch that will be outdated and need replacing in a few years when the battery can't hold a charge anymore or because it's too old for new iOS updates? I suppose they could always melt it down and sell the gold later.

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Based on the 2 Million sales # I am buying GLD & ABX. Back of the envelope calculation tells me thats an additional 115 metric tons of gold consumption p.a. Just to put it in perspective- that's almost 75% of annual gold consumption in US.

Hopefully the gains will pay for the apple car!

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dossux said:   
denbo32 said:   
dossux said:   Since I can't actually do this trade, I'll post what I would do if I had the ability:

buy a bearish vertical 66/63 for ~0.80... 125 contracts of pretend money.

  would help if you used a ticker, and which week, month?

  You mean you cant read my mind? SPLK, reports earnings tonight, weekly options expiring tomorrow--just an earnings play. I am going to put on a big short if they pop more than 8% in the afterhours (and if their revenue growth is <= 50%).

  Would have lost a grand... gonna short tomorrow above 77.

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I want to buy stocks in the solar industry. Is it worth if they are going to become yieldcos is it worth it? Yieldcos to my understanding is they are going to build solar farms and keep them for income.

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TonySpero said:   ARUN halted, HPQ takeover talk


Now open, what a pop....

  I didn't get mine this time.  I've been buying at ~18 and selling at ~21 past few years. This time, bought at 18, and in January it plopped to 16 levels. When it finally came back > 18 last week, I changed my stop limit to 18.20 -- which triggered early this week (Monday, was it?) -- and sure enough, the next day it goes up 20+%. So, i didn't lose my $, but I didn't make a few K either.

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