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denbo32 said: Wait till AFTER the offering, not before. Its pretty much dropped 10% from when they said they were going to do a offering to pay back TARP.

The upside of getting pre diluted shares just don't seem to worth the risk. Waiting a day and missing that upside should really be worth it IMO.

yeah, even if the dilution is priced in, it will still likely drop when the dilution happens. That would be the best time to buy.

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Right now, I'm a small time trader. Here's what I have:

Gains
BBY: Bought 100 Shares @ $38. Current: $41.53
F: Bought 100 shares @ $2. Current: $9.39
PCS: Bought 200 shares @ $6.50 Current: $7.35
C: Bought 35 shares @ $2. Current: $3.56

Losses:
BAC: Bought 38 shares @ $16. Current: $15.19
VG: Bought 200 shares @ $1.50. Sold everything for $1.30

I'd like to toy around with stocks a little more since I have a fairly high success rate with picking good stocks and knowing when to sell, except for Vonage. I still don't know what the hell I was thinking. I'm holding on to BAC and will probably up the ante to 100 shares. Same with Citi.

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nikhil5974 said: denbo32 said: I personally would of waited to see if they are going to dilute the shares first, and if they do to find out at what price. If they pay back the Tarp and need to raise capital, it may not be pretty.

The dilution news is already priced into the stock price. If the buy was below 4, I think its a good one.


How that dilution news priced in working out so far?

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Who knows what is driving this rock down. Could be dilution fears could be delinquent credit card accounts or Abu Dhabi's lawsuit announced after the close.

All I know is I just sold 700 shares of Intel for a nice profit, on the news of the FTC's accusations of illegal competition. Funny, same day that the EC settled its claims against microsoft! Hopefully that stock will pop as a result.

Bought another 1,000 shares of Citi at $3.45. Not happy at the moment, but hoping I will be very happy in six months.

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It's pretty clear what is driving down the price of C. Raising 20B in cash at the expense of the shareholders. With the offering at possible at 3.25 vs the 3.70 of what it was trading 2 days ago is 6.2B shares vs 5.4B shares coming out. And that just assuming they doing just $20B dollars worth.

The pure unknown of those are the problems. The only things I know is that the offering would have to be at a lower cost then what the stock is trading at at the time of the offering. Once that offering happens then you have a decent floor that is a nice place to build a position around.

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6 Months? I think your time frame for Citi to rebound is way to short. It will take a while for this to loom out.

I still think you should of waited till after the offering and not before.

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denbo32 said: 6 Months? I think your time frame for Citi to rebound is way to short. It will take a while for this to loom out.

I still think you should of waited till after the offering and not before.
Well, yes, I should have waited. But, having not waited I am now hoping.

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I'm still trying to understand the logic of buying before the offering instead of after. Or was it just it down 5% today must buy it without any more thought?

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One thing I am not clear about C is if the Govt's 25B stake is included in the current market cap calculations or not. I cannot figure out of we are looking at a 20B dilution or a 50B dollar dilution.

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No more thought than that, Denbo32. I figure it is as probable that there is news that causes an upward movement as there will be news that causes a downward movement.

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RailroadTrack said: Right now, I'm a small time trader. Here's what I have:

Gains
BBY: Bought 100 Shares @ $38. Current: $41.53
F: Bought 100 shares @ $2. Current: $9.39
PCS: Bought 200 shares @ $6.50 Current: $7.35
C: Bought 35 shares @ $2. Current: $3.56

Losses:
BAC: Bought 38 shares @ $16. Current: $15.19
VG: Bought 200 shares @ $1.50. Sold everything for $1.30

I'd like to toy around with stocks a little more since I have a fairly high success rate with picking good stocks and knowing when to sell, except for Vonage. I still don't know what the hell I was thinking. I'm holding on to BAC and will probably up the ante to 100 shares. Same with Citi.


If I were you I would sell everything except PCS.

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I don't know, I don't have a issue with BBY at this level. F is okay as well. owning 75 dollars worth of C isn't even worth selling at this point.

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denbo32 said: I don't know, I don't have a issue with BBY at this level. F is okay as well. owning 75 dollars worth of C isn't even worth selling at this point.

$75 buys an OK steak dinner for one.

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Well E*Trade is on the rise as is Citibank. I believe we will see substantial gains in these companies. But, obviously, I am holding a lot more than these companies in my Portfolio.

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DavidScubadiver said: Well, I am continuing to pick up more and more Citibank. I am with Kramer on this one, it should recover and pay off handsomely when it does.It should do even better if it divests itself or if the anti-trust division of the Justice Dept. forces divestiture.

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3.15 a share! Doh!!

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Not a big individual stock guy - but wanted to say thanks to the active participants on this willing to disclose their positions publically and also their rationale/(un)intelligence behind them! I've enjoyed this thread.

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Hopefully Citi will do better than AIG - bought it at 45, now at 29. Not one of my finer investing moments, but I have ended up selling covered calls all the way down (one deep in the money covered call that ended up out of the monty by the time it expired - of course, the price kept going down) so it's not that much of a loss. Still thinking if I want to cut my losses and harvest the tax loss or keep selling calls off it and see if it does better next year.

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Picked up another 500 shares at 3.18 this morning. The upside of losing so much is that I now own a lot of Citibank and can actually elect members to their Board of Directors and otherwise have a say in the company's future. Seriously, though, I own more than I otherwise would have invested so now I can reap huge profits on the upside and huge losses on the downside.

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You bought it 4 different times in week....

Then again you have somewhere around 2-3k shares so it doesn't appear to be a huge part of your total allocation, so it not so bad.

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denbo32 said: You bought it 4 different times in week....

Then again you have somewhere around 2-3k shares so it doesn't appear to be a huge part of your total allocation, so it not so bad.
5,250 shares all totaled. The first purchase on 12/11 was of 2,500 shares at $3.90. We'll see how I am doing in six months. If I can stomach owning it for that long. Just to make myself feel better I bought Sonos stereo equipment so I can stream music all over the house.

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What your average cost? I think in 2 years if you hold it that long you will be fine. or at least I'm betting that you will be as I bought the 2012 calls today.

I see too many ways that this could go right or wrong, so I played with options to get more leverage on this.

I figured in 2 years C will either be 6+ or under 2 bucks. So I gambled with options over buying the stock out right.

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500 @ 3.18
1000@ 3.45
2500@ 3.91
1000@ 3.65
250 @ 3.70

AVG. cost is $3.69
Total Cost is 19,390

Crap that is a lot more than I wanted to own.

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Sad that the lower the price got the less you bought, it should idealy been the other way.

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denbo32 said: Sad that the lower the price got the less you bought, it should idealy been the other way.Well, ideally it would have kept going up. But really, I bought 2500 at 3.91 and 2750 at less than that.

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what if they pull a GM on you?

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I'm sure that a risk we know can happen. If it happens we lose.

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C won't go BK, The USG wouldn't have let them out of TARP otherwise. They were making a nive qtrly div on that TARP and unless they thought Citi could float they wouldn't have authorized that payback.

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They won't go BK right now..... where they will be in a year from now is very much in question. I wouldn't be shocked if in a year C is in need of more cash.

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I apologize in advance, but I thought of you guys when I read this article:
http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2009/12/17/only-an-idiot-would-buy-this-stock.aspx

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The answer is yes, I am an idiot and yes I am taking a risk with my money without fully understanding the risk/reward ratio. In large part this is because I believe Citibank will recover and I do not believe its stock will stay in the $3 range when it does. And while I could "wait" until it started its upward climb, it is possible to miss a huge upside by waiting. Hindsight will show whether this was a bad bet or a good one.

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I didn't post that article just to poke fun, it actually outlines my strategy exactly for individual stock holdings.

The 11% Edge: Most importantly, LSV found that if you combined low P/E with low sales growth -- terrible as that sounds -- you'd beat high-P/E high-growth stocks by 11 percentage points annually!

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DavidScubadiver said: The answer is yes, I am an idiot and yes I am taking a risk with my money without fully understanding the risk/reward ratio. In large part this is because I believe Citibank will recover and I do not believe its stock will stay in the $3 range when it does. And while I could "wait" until it started its upward climb, it is possible to miss a huge upside by waiting. Hindsight will show whether this was a bad bet or a good one.

I think my comments came out the wrong way. I didn't mean to make it sound like you were making a mistake with your buying stocks at the moments you did. While I disagreed with buying at the moment because I wouldn't do it doesn't mean that you shouldn't of done it. Only you can define your own personal risk/reward ratio.

I asked the questions i did to understand your point of view, and really other people point of view who also was buying at that point. I was just trying to state my point of view because my risk/reward ratio on C is different then what your was.

I'm also trying to make myself a better trader, and one of hardest issue I have is setting proper buy and sell points and sticking to it. Over the last year I've been trying to stick to a plan and get away from impulse buying and selling, taking the step back and looking at what is going on and not panic and buying or selling at moments just because some news broke out.

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I buy on bad news. I was reacting to the article not to your postings. I had no rationale for the buy other than a belief things are not as bad as others believe them to be. Same reason I bought all thru the terrible market declines.

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I am so ready for a Santa Claus Rally and for a turnaround in citibank and e*trade. I am also so ready for year end reviews to see whether I am getting a much deserved and much belated raise this year. Financial giants should not be trading at $3 and $1.60 a share, nor should extraordinary attorneys earn less money than they did in the previous year just because the economy went into the toilet.

Santa, all I want for Christmas is good health, peace on earth and a substantial personal wealth to enjoy it all.

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ETFC I see would have a really rough time breaking past 2.

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denbo32 said: ETFC I see would have a really rough time breaking past 2.But why? It is the largest discount broker out there, has a great product and previously traded so much higher.

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DavidScubadiver said: denbo32 said: ETFC I see would have a really rough time breaking past 2.But why? It is the largest discount broker out there, has a great product and previously traded so much higher.

Well first it EPS isn't in the plus range yet, no real time frame when they will be profitable.

Trading volume is slowing down.

Charts show pretty strong drop each time it hit 2 meaning it pretty heavy resistance at 2.

The fear that they may still need to raise more capital, and well the only way they can really do that is to dilute the stock.

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Well the eps is a trailing number. When it goes positive, nobody knows, but it will have big impact on the stock price. And while trading volume was down, that seems to be expected in light of the market declines. I think that we will see a nice rally in stocks and people will be wanting to open accounts at etrade as a result. But you have a better handle on the technical stuff than I do. My game is to assume the price is unfairly beaten down and that when the market realizes this, I will profit. Does not always work out that way, of course but I bank on the fact that companies and events will surprise to the upside more than to the downside, especially when the company has been hit so hard.

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Bought 200 PALM@ $10.2077
Bought 100 RIMM@ $70.95
Own 300 AAPL
Own 11 shares GOOG

I think I have the smart phone area covered.

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