• filter:
  • 14 5 6781667
  • Page
  • Text Only
  • Search this Topic »
rated:
My technical reading isn't that advanced, I just pull up a chart for the year and see everytime it got near 2 it got beaten down.

rated:
DavidScubadiver said: Bought 200 PALM@ $10.2077
Bought 100 RIMM@ $70.95
Own 300 AAPL
Own 11 shares GOOG

I think I have the smart phone area covered.


You forgot NOK...

rated:
jeeves, you are correct. But I think I will steer clear of that one as Palm is dog enough for my portfolio.

ETA- Picked up 300 shares of NVIDA and 200 Shares of ITC on recommendation of the Motley Fool.

Thus concludes my purchases for 2009. Happy new year, merry x-mas.

rated:
Anyone following STEC? What's the deal with the co?

rated:
jkimcpa said: Anyone following STEC? What's the deal with the co?

The founders pumped the stock from 5 to 40, sold it near its year highs in Aug-Sep, then in Nov decided to announce that their major customer (EMC) had too much inventory and hence will not be buying from them much in Q1, which caused the stock to tank to ~12 (which is still >2X their 2009 lows)

rated:
jeeves said: jkimcpa said: Anyone following STEC? What's the deal with the co?

The founders pumped the stock from 5 to 40, sold it near its year highs in Aug-Sep, then in Nov decided to announce that their major customer (EMC) had too much inventory and hence will not be buying from them much in Q1, which caused the stock to tank to ~12 (which is still >2X their 2009 lows)


Ah, the lovely inventory game.

rated:
Anyone following Rambus litigation?

rated:
DavidScubadiver said: I am so ready for a Santa Claus Rally and for a turnaround in citibank and e*trade. I am also so ready for year end reviews to see whether I am getting a much deserved and much belated raise this year. Financial giants should not be trading at $3 and $1.60 a share, nor should extraordinary attorneys earn less money than they did in the previous year just because the economy went into the toilet.

Santa, all I want for Christmas is good health, peace on earth and a substantial personal wealth to enjoy it all.

I put in a limit buy of 1.60 for ETFC a week or so ago. It has hit 1.61 on 4 different days. Unfortunately, it never went below 1.61 so I missed the recent gains. I guess I deserve that for being so picky.

rated:
Wow, today sure was a satisfying day to be a citibank and etrade shareholder! Almost recaptured all of my Etrade losses.

rated:
jkimcpa said: Anyone following Rambus litigation?I've never understood the concept of investing in companies that don't do anything, have no efficiency advantages, or aren't greatly undervalued.

rated:
Love you, Santa!!

rated:
larrymoencurly said: jkimcpa said: Anyone following Rambus litigation?I've never understood the concept of investing in companies that don't do anything, have no efficiency advantages, or aren't greatly undervalued.

Everyone has different ways of what companies do well and don't do well. We all don't use the same standards. But generally most people invest in a company because they believe they will make money.

Now if the logic on why they will make money is different on case to case, the bottom line is they believe in something.

rated:
Having a company make money still seems an insufficient reason to invest in it. After all, the real question is whether someone else will want your stock at a higher price than you paid for it.

rated:
Sold my AAPL calls today. Wanted to roll them over to a further month, but I didn't like the pricing on the further out calls for now gonna wait for a pullback below 200 to buy new calls.

rated:
Hope you have a very long time to wait, and that it goes to 300 before dipping below 200!

rated:
Well, today sure turned out to be a good day! Sorry I bought RIMM and glad I bought PALM. E*trade is moving up nicely and I hope that continues. I will have $10,000 to contribute to the IRA's come the first week of January and am considering 50/50 on etrade and citibank.

rated:
Just for the record, since I suggested you look at STEC on Dec 10, it has gone up ~33%. In the same time frame, Apple has gone up about 3% and C has gone down ~15%.

Individual investors don't make money by buying stuff like Citigroup (given its current dilution situation) and Apple (when the projected future earnings are absolutely ridiculous). You might as well just buy an index ETF and sell calls against it, at least that way you're picking up some premium. The only way little guys make money is to buy stuff that has gotten the crap kicked out of it and you believe will turn around because of market conditions, or some small cap that you have an intelligent reason to believe will go up or down in the near future due to a catalyst. Otherwise, you might as well just open a sports betting account, because you have a much better chance of guessing whether or not the [insert your home team here] will cover the spread than you have of guessing the way a stock like C is going to move.

rated:
PALM? Seriously? Do you have a reason for buying that other then "man, it's gotten the crap kicked out of it... surely it can't go down any further!"? Also, 50/50 eTrade and C in an IRA? What are you smoking? I usually try not to be critical... but what is the reasoning behind any of this? C and ETFC are complete black holes. If you want a financial, why not just buy some GS? They're running the show.

rated:
I already own $10,000 of Goldman, and my Palm is up plenty since buying. You can follow my trades on Cake, and when you post a verifiable link to your trades I will pay attention to you.
kantscholar said: PALM? Seriously? Do you have a reason for buying that other then "man, it's gotten the crap kicked out of it... surely it can't go down any further!"? Also, 50/50 eTrade and C in an IRA? What are you smoking? I usually try not to be critical... but what is the reasoning behind any of this? C and ETFC are complete black holes. If you want a financial, why not just buy some GS? They're running the show.

rated:
DavidScubadiver said: Having a company make money still seems an insufficient reason to invest in it. After all, the real question is whether someone else will want your stock at a higher price than you paid for it.
Instead of looking at company information, I just wait to see if you buy the stock.

rated:
riznick said: DavidScubadiver said: Having a company make money still seems an insufficient reason to invest in it. After all, the real question is whether someone else will want your stock at a higher price than you paid for it.
Instead of looking at company information, I just wait to see if you buy the stock.

That would put you in the top 10% of investors on cakefinanial.com.

rated:
kantscholar said: PALM? Seriously? Do you have a reason for buying that other then "man, it's gotten the crap kicked out of it... surely it can't go down any further!"? Also, 50/50 eTrade and C in an IRA? What are you smoking? I usually try not to be critical... but what is the reasoning behind any of this? C and ETFC are complete black holes. If you want a financial, why not just buy some GS? They're running the show.
The bet is that ETFC will be bought out next year at a higher price. There are 2-3 interested parties. Also, though etrade is doing bad in its finance department, the investment department is helping it out.

rated:
That's at least some reasoning for ETFC... but buying because someone else may take it over is usually a pretty bad bet. If you think that the company is undervalued, that's one thing. Because it is undervalued, then it could be a reasonable take over candidate but to buy with the hope of it being taken over? That seems foolish.

Dave: I spend too much time worrying about my own trades. I have zero interest in following your trades on that website. I also have zero interest in having people follow my trades. My interest is discussing investing ideas about individual stocks. Instead of using this board to post crap about buying C, AAPL, etc., why don't we use it to try to find some small caps or stuff that everyone in the world doesn't know about or ideas that I can't get just by turning on CNBC.

And if you must know, I'm in 100% cash right now. That may change after Christmas... but I'll probably remain in cash through the of the year unless we get a pullback and I can sell some puts.

rated:
denbo32 said: larrymoencurly said: jkimcpa said: Anyone following Rambus litigation?I've never understood the concept of investing in companies that don't do anything, have no efficiency advantages, or aren't greatly undervalued.

Everyone has different ways of what companies do well and don't do well. We all don't use the same standards. But generally most people invest in a company because they believe they will make money.

Now if the logic on why they will make money is different on case to case, the bottom line is they believe in something.
I need really clear reasons, really simple that explain why the company is a good value and why it has reasons to exist. For example, I missed the run-up in Krispy Kreme years ago because I just couldn't figure out what was so special about their finances, marketing, or donuts and thought Dunkin Donuts couldn't be beaten because it was better run and bigger.

Here's a sector of the chip industry that's had a ton more losers than winners since 1980. Tons of companies have entered it and exited it, some more than once:

rated:
larrymoencurly said: denbo32 said: larrymoencurly said: jkimcpa said: Anyone following Rambus litigation?I've never understood the concept of investing in companies that don't do anything, have no efficiency advantages, or aren't greatly undervalued.

Everyone has different ways of what companies do well and don't do well. We all don't use the same standards. But generally most people invest in a company because they believe they will make money.

Now if the logic on why they will make money is different on case to case, the bottom line is they believe in something.
I need really clear reasons, really simple that explain why the company is a good value and why it has reasons to exist. For example, I missed the run-up in Krispy Kreme years ago because I just couldn't figure out what was so special about their finances, marketing, or donuts and thought Dunkin Donuts couldn't be beaten because it was better run and bigger.

Here's a sector of the chip industry that's had a ton more losers than winners since 1980. Tons of companies have entered it and exited it, some more than once:


Here is the most simplest way to say a very complicated issue (litigation):

Current market cap, $2.5b
Potential litigation payment if win antitrust suit (which the defendants already lost criminal case on), $14b
"Expert" analysis on % chance rambus will win, 80-90%
Percent chance of winning implied from stock price, on payment money alone, <20%
Court start date, Jan 11, 2010
Court length, 1-2 months?
Chance of settlement, probable?

Do you not see the arbitrage situation?

rated:
denbo32 said: Sold my AAPL calls today. Wanted to roll them over to a further month, but I didn't like the pricing on the further out calls for now gonna wait for a pullback below 200 to buy new calls.

Picked the wrong day to roll over. I was mostly looking to get into a option that had the earning date into it. of course 10 mins after I sold my call AAPL announces that they going to show a new product, most likely the tablet that everyone been saying for months.

Selling those calls 1 day early cost me 50% profits. The only reason I was upset was because I sold the call with the thought of rolling to a further month, but I just sold my call without buying the new one.

I would of sold the call at this point and not bought a new one anyway if I waited the day. 208 is gonna be a short term top I believe.

rated:
Apple did not announce the press conference. Was it not a rumor? I know it is happening and believe the tablet will be priced
right and be a category killer and stepping stone to more mac sales.

rated:
jkimcpa said: Here is the most simplest way to say a very complicated issue (litigation):

Current market cap, $2.5b
Potential litigation payment if win antitrust suit (which the defendants already lost criminal case on), $14b
"Expert" analysis on % chance rambus will win, 80-90%
Percent chance of winning implied from stock price, on payment money alone, <20%
Court start date, Jan 11, 2010
Court length, 1-2 months?
Chance of settlement, probable?

Do you not see the arbitrage situation?
I see Samsung, which has the Korean government in its pocket and is the largest and only financially healthy DRAM maker left, not being affected.

OTOH how much money have you made on stocks like that, and how much have you lost?

rated:
DavidScubadiver said: Apple did not announce the press conference. Was it not a rumor? I know it is happening and believe the tablet will be priced
right and be a category killer and stepping stone to more mac sales.

I guess it all rumor, but rumor is that on 1/26 that will be presenting something

rated:
DavidScubadiver said: Apple did not announce the press conference. Was it not a rumor? I know it is happening and believe the tablet will be priced
right and be a category killer and stepping stone to more mac sales.


Apple has something big up its sleeve for next month. The company has rented a stage at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts in San Francisco for several days in late January, according to people familiar with the plans. Apple is expected to use the venue to make a major product announcement on Tuesday, January 26th. Both YBCA and Apple declined to comment.


http://www.9to5mac.com/Tablet-JAnuary-26th-5949565

rated:
larrymoencurly said: jkimcpa said: Here is the most simplest way to say a very complicated issue (litigation):

Current market cap, $2.5b
Potential litigation payment if win antitrust suit (which the defendants already lost criminal case on), $14b
"Expert" analysis on % chance rambus will win, 80-90%
Percent chance of winning implied from stock price, on payment money alone, <20%
Court start date, Jan 11, 2010
Court length, 1-2 months?
Chance of settlement, probable?

Do you not see the arbitrage situation?
I see Samsung, which has the Korean government in its pocket and is the largest and only financially healthy DRAM maker left, not being affected.

OTOH how much money have you made on stocks like that, and how much have you lost?


You're a horrible analyst, even with a treasure trove of info out there, that you come to that conclusion.

The only other litigation play I've done was TSRA (this is also an Azurik recommended stock) and I made good returns off that.

rated:
Thank you, Santa!

Here is a sobering thought... I went back to my Vanguard account where I had put in all of my stock holdings a while ago, and saw that I would have had over $200,000 in Apple stock! Holy molly, if only I had the stones to keep my 967 shares instead of selling more and more of it as it went up. Still, the company has treated me very well and I am hoping my 300 shares go up another 30,000.

So, the Mrs. wants to invest now, and I am looking forward to helping her out. The only thing I have to figure out is whether to open a brokerage with Vanguard and let her invest in ETFs or whether to put her in Zecco so that she can also buy stocks when she graduates to that. If I go to Vanguard I can avoid the commissions or the requirement of $25,000 account balance to waive commissions. Leaning toward the $25,000 just to have the flexibility of commission free trades for more than vanguard etfs... I just have to figure out where to get the money!

rated:
Hi David

How can I view your trades at cakefinancial.com. Thanks

rated:
samineni said: Hi David

How can I view your trades at cakefinancial.com. Thanks
My username is "David Scubadiver". Just sign up (free) click community, type my name in search box and when it comes up under members, click on me and then "follow david scubadiver" or something like that, and voila! It won't show the number of shares but it will show what is bought and sold as well as how I am doing. It shows portfolio holdings by percentages, I believe. The amounts can be calculated with some math as long as you remember that the berkshire class b holding represents a single share. Hope its of use to you!

rated:
I see no such community link.

rated:
I'll be the contrarian, though, and on Monday assuming the puts are priced right I'll buy 5 April puts on Apple at 210. I think that Apple has reached its peak. The normal order is "buy on the rumor, sell on the news", but at this point unless it is as revolutionary as OS X (and it won't be) the price has nowhere to go but down.

rated:
FuzzyWombat said: I see no such community link.Try typing "david scubadiver" in the search box at www.cakefinancial.com and click on the members tag. Or click on the faq to figure out how to use the site.

rated:
calwatch said: I'll be the contrarian, though, and on Monday assuming the puts are priced right I'll buy 5 April puts on Apple at 210. I think that Apple has reached its peak. The normal order is "buy on the rumor, sell on the news", but at this point unless it is as revolutionary as OS X (and it won't be) the price has nowhere to go but down.Let us explore "the price has nowhere to go but down." If the stock price reflects expectations of future earnings, and then the introduction of a new product requires an understanding of the volume of units sold, the price they are sold at and the profit margins of the Company. Do you have an opinion on what revenue the new product must generate to prevent a declining stock price? Analysts see the stock going much higher. So there is apparently a view that differs from yours, meaning up remains a possible alternative to down. I bought before the iphone was rumored and you know, the stock doubled from rumor thru introduction.

rated:
The current price of APPL stock has priced in future earnings equivalent of two ridiculous hot products like the iPhone, in addition to continuing the strong sales in its entire product line. Now, there are some companies that have been able to continually meet and exceed such ridiculous future earnings expectations (e.g., Amazon), but the odds are against you.

The second wave of mortgage resets is also about to hit us. If we get any sort of pullback in the market, the high flyers like APPL will be the ones that come crashing down the fastest (like they did in March). I'm not saying to short APPL, I'm just saying that it's highly, highly improbably that your 300 shares of APPL are going to go up another 100 points anytime soon.

If I were a betting person, I'd bet that APPL hits 100 before it hits 300.

rated:
kantscholar said: The current price of APPL stock has priced in future earnings equivalent of two ridiculous hot products like the iPhone, in addition to continuing the strong sales in its entire product line. Now, there are some companies that have been able to continually meet and exceed such ridiculous future earnings expectations (e.g., Amazon), but the odds are against you.

The second wave of mortgage resets is also about to hit us. If we get any sort of pullback in the market, the high flyers like APPL will be the ones that come crashing down the fastest (like they did in March). I'm not saying to short APPL, I'm just saying that it's highly, highly improbably that your 300 shares of APPL are going to go up another 100 points anytime soon.

If I were a betting person, I'd bet that APPL hits 100 before it hits 300.
Last time it went below 100 I wound up with 967 shares and had a lovely ride up. True, being down $40,000 really hurt, but it was temporary. I do not know how you conclude its price includes two really hot products, but whatever, the fact of the matter is that its a great company with a great balance sheet with great products and a very small market share, meaning it has tremendous room to grow.

  • Quick Reply:  Have something quick to contribute? Just reply below and you're done! hide Quick Reply
     
    Click here for full-featured reply.
  • 14 5 6781667
  • Page


Disclaimer: By providing links to other sites, FatWallet.com does not guarantee, approve or endorse the information or products available at these sites, nor does a link indicate any association with or endorsement by the linked site to FatWallet.com.

Thanks for visiting FatWallet.com. Join for free to remove this ad.

TRUSTe online privacy certification

While FatWallet makes every effort to post correct information, offers are subject to change without notice.
Some exclusions may apply based upon merchant policies.
© 1999-2014