nsdp said: Nat Gas on the ICE day ahead market dropped 5 cents today. ICE reflects what is really happening in the market since every one must make or accept delivery. Casinghead gas is expected to rise another 150,000 to 200,000mcfd in the Eagle Ford as it rises to 500,000 barrels a day by year end. The SEC isn't going to go away any time soon and McClendon looks like he is in the same shape as several executives at Texas Gulf Sulphur were in after the Timmons-Kidd core samples became in house knowledge. My guess he has 10(b)(5) problems for nondisclosure. It is an Oklahoma corporation so I have no idea what fiduciary obligations of officers and directors are now but Bud Adams was able to skate on his dealings with Phillips Petroleum. Don't see the price moving materially upward soon. Probably stagnant for next 6 months..
I don't disagree, but I'm happy with a stagnant price assuming that there's a significant amount of volatility priced into the options given the various uncertainties. I can make quite a bit of money collecting front month options premiums.
mariusz said: ICMATULKASPRMKY said: COP has a 5% dividend now. Near 52wk low too, plus broke 200DMA, could be more pain. It is NOT at 52wk low. Conoco spunoff phillips (PSX) last week for $34+ that is why it appears stock price went so much down
ima4ltrwrd said: RGR pulling back...going to wait a day to see if I can get it cheaper. Usually bounces after these big moves. RGR is cooking, still has way to go IMO.
umcsom said: hakujin said: i was about to attempt short 5500 shares of gmcr @ +2%... couldn't pull the trigger. story of my life. now won't because futures will boost it at the very latest on monday, and there might be some upward momentum on mon.
reason I say 'attempt' is, how do you know if your brokerage has the shares available? will the transaction just error out or...?
-cap'n hind sight.
Tradeking just refuses the trade and states non are available. Shorting requires too much margin, and if you have that kind of money to throw around then simply sell calls outright or call credit spreads. Yes less profit potential, but much less capital intensive and if it goes against you don't have to panic as much.
cxd213 said: Looking for some advice - Bought AAPL at $540 and $596 over the last few weeks - I'm right around even at the current price. Jump out and pick it up later, or let it ride? If risk averse, better to break even and watch the action for a few weeks with cash in hand IMO.
chaddi said: mariusz said: ICMATULKASPRMKY said: COP has a 5% dividend now. Near 52wk low too, plus broke 200DMA, could be more pain. It is NOT at 52wk low. Conoco spunoff phillips (PSX) last week for $34+ that is why it appears stock price went so much down Opps.... I guess I missed that, so what is the real 52wk low? Is divvy still at the same %?
hakujin said: mariusz said: kantscholar said: The problem with AAPL is who is left to buy shares. Excluding the people trading in and out of the stock, not only does everyone seem to own AAPL, but the rebalancing is going to cause those with funds mirroring the QQQ to sell their shares. Yes, the pyramid finally collapsing for lack of new blood, the Ponzi scheme quickly falling apart. Now only sellers left, thus the collapse. $450 or less may be around the corner.
Ponzi scheme sounds a bit much. They have vast TRUE profit. They might be a bubble, but they'll be a bigger bubble when iPhone 5 numbers come in, particularly off China Mobile alliance. To be clear, I'm not suggesting long investment now. Glad I got out as I was burned enough April onward i.e. day late and a dollar short and had a tad too much kool aid. My guess: a better short than not at least until wwdc or other major announcement.
mariusz said: hakujin said: can any of you options gurus riddle me this: if there were 0.5 call contracts traded for each put contract yielding a 1.96 put/call ratio where 7,530 put and 3,844 call contracts exchanged hands on a stock, is that anticipation of downward momentum? My guess is down since a buyer thinks the price of a stock will decrease when buying a put, but hope someone here smarter than me (a level not difficult to achieve!) can interpret that better. Remember there are 2 parties to every trade, every buyer has a seller to bet against. Volume means trade has taken place, but you don't know if net position is open short or open long. You can only know that if you closely follow actual trades, which in practice is quite impossible for every option contract, unless you pick a few strikes of certain underlying and watch those trade on T&S.
thx for feedback. simply put, wouldn't you say more options traders are likely betting for a decline on this one given the aforementioned? more so, any thoughts on RAX earnings (where I cherry picked the above example from)? i'm having a bit of cognitive dissonance on their earnings (they never give guidance). I have feeling Q1 was a slower qtr for them and difficult to keep the pace of 2011 2nd half, so the expected 80% revenue increase YoY seems a bit much, but then my other half says how could they fail on a quarter where eqix, citrix, and amzn beat street...
-layman's perspective (obviously) Not really, since all puts may be sold short to pick up volatility collapse or theta decay, or part of a credit spread anticipating a rise in price. In options nothing is obvious. Put/call ratio is meaningless unless you can tell how those traded were created. Options and stocks are completely different animals. Options much more complex and things less obvious. Sometimes what looks obvious is not, or could in fact be opposite. I would compare stocks to playing checkers and options to playing chess.
jd2010 said: I was traveling and forgot to get to cash thursday before close. I got destroyed for like 8% last week. Lesson learned, but still 92% to play with, hopefully play to win. Maybe try some paper trading for few weeks if the streak goes against you too mant times(yes no real profits but also no losses, and since those are more common, potential savings)
Someone was saying the patents on GMCR pods are expiring and there will be generic ones sold, which would completely destroy their profits. I dont know why that wasnt brought to my attention prior to earnings but I guess thats what happens when you arent doing this full time.
ima4ltrwrd said: Someone was saying the patents on GMCR pods are expiring and there will be generic ones sold, which would completely destroy their profits. I dont know why that wasnt brought to my attention prior to earnings but I guess thats what happens when you arent doing this full time.
Its alright, everyone already knows this and its more or less priced in, which is why its now trading at 12x forward earnings and not 50 like it was.
On a different note... I gave up after trying to pass the patent bar twice back in my law school days... but pretty sure you get 17 years from date of file... did they really have and patent this idea 17 years ago? If so why did it just become marketable like 2 years ago?
jd2010 said: ima4ltrwrd said: Someone was saying the patents on GMCR pods are expiring and there will be generic ones sold, which would completely destroy their profits. I dont know why that wasnt brought to my attention prior to earnings but I guess thats what happens when you arent doing this full time.
Its alright, everyone already knows this and its more or less priced in, which is why its now trading at 12x forward earnings and not 50 like it was.
On a different note... I gave up after trying to pass the patent bar twice back in my law school days... but pretty sure you get 17 years from date of file... did they really have and patent this idea 17 years ago? If so why did it just become marketable like 2 years ago?
GMCR bought the Keurig maker and patents in 2006. I'm guessing the market for high end single serve coffee wasn't viable until recently.
there is going to be a terrible week. bernanke will need to do dunkin donuts overtime in the morning and start giving us sugar injections, because this is going to be a rough month. haha!
Well, I'm quite glad now my VXX holding didn't quite hit the limit sell price at the close on Friday. At least it will be a small hedge for the beating the rest of my portfolio is likely to take
What do you guys think about a bear call spread for AAPL at relatively safer values like: May 12: Sell Call 580 at 6.50 Buy Call 590 at 3.975
These are of course Friday's market values and will not mean anything for Monday morning. But I don't see it leaping to 580 or more within the short period of time coming.
Max profit ~250 Max loss ~750
Would you guys do something like this? Considering I'm a newbie and never did a complex order like this and always went with buying call options only, I'd like to know what would stop you to place such an order assuming these numbers are still valid.
Tosunum, You should get a play money account with OptionsHouse and practice that sort of stuff for at least a few months before putting it on with real money. While it's true that you learn very quickly when you're playing with your own money, starting with a 10-20% portfolio haircut is not how you want to get started.
As for that particular trade, I don't like it. It seems like 50/50 whether AAPL will be above 590 by that point. If I'm flipping a coin, I don't want my max profit to be 250 and my max loss to be 750.
surprised we aren't down more than we are in pre-market. my stop for WFM hit, so i'm pretty much all cash or bearish. still some essentially worthless long positions, calls that need a miracle to hit. AAPL and BIDU puts is hopefully where i'll be making the bucks.
still holding TZA, TWM and up a little pre-market as well.
Tosunum said: What do you guys think about a bear call spread for AAPL at relatively safer values like: May 12: Sell Call 580 at 6.50 Buy Call 590 at 3.975
These are of course Friday's market values and will not mean anything for Monday morning. But I don't see it leaping to 580 or more within the short period of time coming.
Max profit ~250 Max loss ~750
Would you guys do something like this? Considering I'm a newbie and never did a complex order like this and always went with buying call options only, I'd like to know what would stop you to place such an order assu Try legging it in as separate orders at different points in time to make your net take higher, also try capturing the spread on both opening and closing positions on both strikes.
germanpope said: mariusz said: Trivia: How many consecutive option trades at 100% profit does it take to turn $1K into $1M? Anyone here thinks this is doable?
I only have experience turning $1k into $0
But that means somebody made your $1K from $0 on the other side of the trade.
jd2010 said: mariusz said: Trivia: How many consecutive option trades at 100% profit does it take to turn $1K into $1M? Anyone here thinks this is doable?
Assuming 10 bucks in brokerage fees each way, 2^x = 1M/980
almost exactly 10
Sure its possible, but assuming you're a 60% picker (lol) your odds are still about 1 in 165.
way better odds than any lottery, yet people still play lottery
mariusz said: jd2010 said: mariusz said: Trivia: How many consecutive option trades at 100% profit does it take to turn $1K into $1M? Anyone here thinks this is doable?
Assuming 10 bucks in brokerage fees each way, 2^x = 1M/980
almost exactly 10
Sure its possible, but assuming you're a 60% picker (lol) your odds are still about 1 in 165.
way better odds than any lottery, yet people still play lottery
People who play the lottery generally aren't dropping $1k on mega millions tickets.
Looking for option trades with minimum 100% short term upside, going to try the $1K to $1M trade thing first in a virtual acct. Post your picks here and I will post results and balances. Starting with $1K plus $20 for first roundtrip commissions. I will buy at limit at ask and sell at limit on bid only. Let's see if this can be done.
mariusz said: Looking for option trades with minimum 100% short term upside, going to try the $1K to $1M trade thing first in a virtual acct. Post your picks here and I will post results and balances. Starting with $1K plus $20 for first roundtrip commissions. I will but at limit at ask and sell at limit on bid only. Let's see if this can be done.
Could you start a different thread for it? I'd really rather not filter through that kind of stuff when looking for some real advice.
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