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It's not a question of if but when for Apple. It's clear that they're one of the best companies in the world but the growth projections simply do not make sense given the size of the company. The valuation is crazy. You can't short it, but I surely wouldn't be long at this point (but I've missed out on the last 300 or so points so what do I know...).

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mariusz said:   $85/sh for zombie SHLD..... anyone else see the insanity here?

Eddie L is buying another mansion. Don't bet against Eddie.

Atleast SHLD has assets (some good brands and RE)- What does CRM have? 20B market cap!

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kantscholar said:   It's not a question of if but when for Apple. It's clear that they're one of the best companies in the world but the growth projections simply do not make sense given the size of the company. The valuation is crazy. You can't short it, but I surely wouldn't be long at this point (but I've missed out on the last 300 or so points so what do I know...).

P/E of 15 is not exactly growth territory. Mature companies like WalMart and 3M have similar P/Es and are not expected to grow.

Apple was trading at a discount for the fear of what happens after Jobs. It was trading at forward P/E < 10, which typically is for contracting companies like HP and RIMM. Cook delivered 6 months of results and products and it is back to the valuation of a mature stock. If he can come up with some hot products outside of iphones and ipads in the next couple of years it will get upgraded again, but if not it is going to fall.

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jeeves said:   mariusz said:   $85/sh for zombie SHLD..... anyone else see the insanity here?

Eddie L is buying another mansion. Don't bet against Eddie.

Atleast SHLD has assets (some good brands and RE)- What does CRM have? 20B market cap!


Eddie buying another mansion with all the fool's money. SHLD RE not worth much if cannot find a buyer, and which retailer is expanding enough to buy that RE?

CRM is black magic to me, dot com 2.0, won't be pretty when it all ends, and it will.

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kantscholar said:   It's not a question of if but when for Apple. It's clear that they're one of the best companies in the world but the growth projections simply do not make sense given the size of the company. The valuation is crazy. You can't short it, but I surely wouldn't be long at this point (but I've missed out on the last 300 or so points so what do I know...).

Apple products losing steam, not big change on iphone 4S or new ipad..... what will they do next with SJ gone? Plus LTE is nice, but with data limits and expensive plans it likely will not be used much. With unlimited plans I could see it, but not with 2GB-5GB plans. Heck, 2GB can be used up in a few hours LOL. What's the point of being able to go 200mph when they only allow you to go 100miles total... fun, but pointless.

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The earnings and revenue are expected to grow at 20% between this year and next. For a company with that large of a market cap already (and so much cash and nothing to do with it but build a vault and swim in it), the projections are insane. There's a reason why most massive companies (think XOM) trade historically with an 8 multiple.

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2.5 hours left to triple witching manipulations.

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kantscholar said:   The earnings and revenue are expected to grow at 20% between this year and next. For a company with that large of a market cap already (and so much cash and nothing to do with it but build a vault and swim in it), the projections are insane. There's a reason why most massive companies (think XOM) trade historically with an 8 multiple.

XOM is closer to 10. They are a commodity company- it is not exactly a fair comparison- what innovation can they really bring to the market? 3M or DIS would be fairer.

Apple is still a small fraction of the addressable smartphone market. They have massive economies of scale. They are probably the lowest cost producers. They are still running off Jobs' genius. But I am waiting for their next product category launch, not product launch- I am not sure what that is going to be- but if they have a successful one, then they deserve better multiples

I was never a mac guy, but I do have an Iphone and Ipad. My two year old was able to use my iphone before he was able to speak. It got so bad that I had to buy him his own ipod touch for his apps. He battles me for use of the Ipad, so my old one probably goes to him when I get the Ipad3. He does not care for an android phone or tab. They are getting the kids hooked with textbooks etc. , so in the longer term I think they will be OK.

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Don't hold your breath. What triple witching?

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kantscholar said:   The earnings and revenue are expected to grow at 20% between this year and next. For a company with that large of a market cap already (and so much cash and nothing to do with it but build a vault and swim in it), the projections are insane. There's a reason why most massive companies (think XOM) trade historically with an 8 multiple.The growth of XOM and aapl are not the same. The size of apple really fooled the market for a while, because nobody dealt with this kind of growth with such a huge company before. So its shares were excessively cheap (which is what I have been saying for 2 years). I kind of shrugged off the size issue, just because I always could see the growth is not limited by its size (yet) in the US and international market. Right now the growth will come from government adoption, corporate adoption and china.

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Putting a half of profits from AAPL trades to NOK.
Just got Ipad 3rd Gen delivered.

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kihne said:   
Just got Ipad 3rd Gen delivered.


Enjoy! Mine is stuck in some FedEx purgatory. Waiting anxiously for later today.

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In for 2x 580/585 call spread on AAPL for 2.50 each for next Friday's expiry.

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DelCheapo said:   kihne said:   
Just got Ipad 3rd Gen delivered.


Enjoy! Mine is stuck in some FedEx purgatory. Waiting anxiously for later today.


WOW!!! what a screen! you won't realize the beauty of it until you see it with your own eyes.
BTW, I'm still holding onto 2 AAPL $575 puts. lol

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DelCheapo said:   kihne said:   
Just got Ipad 3rd Gen delivered.


Enjoy! Mine is stuck in some FedEx purgatory. Waiting anxiously for later today.


Enjoy...I got mine too, but at home and am at work

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DelCheapo said:   kihne said:   
Just got Ipad 3rd Gen delivered.


Enjoy! Mine is stuck in some FedEx purgatory. Waiting anxiously for later today.


Any good case recommendations? I kind off like the Dodocase

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I bought Luvvitt keyboard and cover from Amazon.

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kantscholar said:   It's not a question of if but when for Apple. It's clear that they're one of the best companies in the world but the growth projections simply do not make sense given the size of the company. The valuation is crazy. You can't short it, but I surely wouldn't be long at this point (but I've missed out on the last 300 or so points so what do I know...).

Why doesn't the growth proection make sense, where do you disagree with it? Do you see iphone/ipad/apps growth slowing down for any reason?

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3Dguru said:   DelCheapo said:   kihne said:   
Just got Ipad 3rd Gen delivered.


Enjoy! Mine is stuck in some FedEx purgatory. Waiting anxiously for later today.


Any good case recommendations? I kind off like the Dodocase


haha guys this is so off topic! Anyhow I would not recommend the Dodocase for everyday use. I had a similar case (from Treegloo) on my iPad 2 and it's way too bulky, I ended up only using it a couple times. The point of having a thin, sleek tablet is to maintain it's sleek profile, so get something that adds little to no weight and little to no bulk.

I would recommend something like the Joy Factory Smartsuit:
http://www.thejoyfactory.com/products/ipad-3-cases

There might be a couple others with same form factor for a bit cheaper, but you get the point.

Anyhow, do not buy any of these existing products (for tight fitting cases) that say they work on iPad2 and New iPad, people are finding for the most part either they don't fit, or they don't fit properly - so I'd wait until they had the proper version.

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Kant, please let me know when you're shorting DRYS... I figure it's almost time.

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You guys noticed the jump of offshore drillers? RIG, DO, NE...

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BAC is keeping me in the green today (barely)... taking a hit on those RIMM puts I bought yesterday (sigh)...

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nycll said:   You guys noticed the jump of offshore drillers? RIG, DO, NE...

ugh. sold off all my remaining RIG in the low 50s. damn.

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What happened to Ulta strike prices? was 90 strike now 89?

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I have some WU 18 options expiring today, its right at 18. I cant sell them for anything but if it closes above 18 will my broker exercise them for me?

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ima4ltrwrd said:   I have some WU 18 options expiring today, its right at 18. I cant sell them for anything but if it closes above 18 will my broker exercise them for me?

that is likely the case, but you can call them and tell them not to exercise, that is your call

try selling at 5c, since if it's over 18 near close then those who are short will want to buy them back

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mariusz said:   2.5 hours left to triple witching manipulations.

Missed the boat to get out of ZIP this morning at 14.50 since apparently me and my wife forgot to set our alarms and both overslept. Hopefully they do it again here at the close.

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AAPL selling before weekend...... 580 possible still

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Ya I just called them and had to tell them not to exercise it.

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ima4ltrwrd said:   Ya I just called them and had to tell them not to exercise it.

You can't sell them for even 5c?

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corporateclaw said:   ima4ltrwrd said:   Ya I just called them and had to tell them not to exercise it.

You can't sell them for even 5c?


maybe not many contracts and not worth the commission

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Wait its trading at 18.06 now, why would you not want to exercise it?

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mariusz said:   What happened to Ulta strike prices? was 90 strike now 89?

Dunno, but I'm glad I sold off my calls yesterday. Would've been pissed.

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Not yet, im trying.

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Wow my BAC calls are up 50% just since Wednesday afternoon...

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AAPL @ 585 ATM on expiration Friday. Nice pin job MMs.

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DelCheapo said:   Wow my BAC calls are up 50% just since Wednesday afternoon...

I posted on here a month or so ago about buying the BAC JAN 2013 $10 Calls. They're up 100%.

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NukeMedDude said:   DelCheapo said:   Wow my BAC calls are up 50% just since Wednesday afternoon...

I posted on here a month or so ago about buying the BAC JAN 2013 $10 Calls. They're up 100%.


I would have listened but it was before I knew about your gun collection

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LongDongSilver said:   AAPL @ 585 ATM on expiration Friday. Nice pin job MMs.

up almost $1 right at the end.....

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mariusz said:   kantscholar said:   It's not a question of if but when for Apple. It's clear that they're one of the best companies in the world but the growth projections simply do not make sense given the size of the company. The valuation is crazy. You can't short it, but I surely wouldn't be long at this point (but I've missed out on the last 300 or so points so what do I know...).

Apple products losing steam, not big change on iphone 4S or new ipad..... what will they do next with SJ gone? Plus LTE is nice, but with data limits and expensive plans it likely will not be used much. With unlimited plans I could see it, but not with 2GB-5GB plans. Heck, 2GB can be used up in a few hours LOL. What's the point of being able to go 200mph when they only allow you to go 100miles total... fun, but pointless.


I'm not sure how their products are losing steam at least from a sales point of view. They continue to sell more and more of nearly all their products (except maybe iPods). I would have agreed with the jump from iPad1 to iPad2, but the "new" iPad is pretty decent change. Getting the higher res screen that everyone's been waiting for and one of the fastest graphics chips in any tablet device, the new iPad seems a worthy successor.

I'm not sure what they will be able to come up with anymore without Jobs, since all these products have been in the pipeline before he passed, but I will say with each new person they bring into their Apple Universe equates to much more than just this one off sale, since many people buy Music, Apps, Videos or even just accessories and as people become connected to Apple they will consider other Apple devices. I know plenty of people who started with an iPod or iPhone and years later now own Mac computers or laptops.

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