mariusz said: zrz123 said: anyone betting on FB 29 calls? You'd figure they would close it under $28 since call OI is much higher than put OI, so they can keep the $28 call premiums, but what do I know... MM's have their own agenda.
Either that or MMs don't manipulate equity prices as much as believed.
Satriani said: mariusz said: zrz123 said: anyone betting on FB 29 calls? You'd figure they would close it under $28 since call OI is much higher than put OI, so they can keep the $28 call premiums, but what do I know... MM's have their own agenda.
Either that or MMs don't manipulate equity prices as much as believed. They do, maybe just too far to go for them, or maybe will still do it, in 1.5hrs anything can happen.
zrz123 said: you think it would drop 1$ in hour and half? I am thinking they will pin it to 29. Makes no sense to pin to 29, but that is just me, 28 would be max pain
is it possible buying computers kick into overtime (to a lesser degree of what overtly happened yesterday) to head fake the nonsense in Greece? I mean... why would there be any QE3 in somewhat of a weekly bull run? Guess just the notion thereof is sufficient!
DelCheapo said: What happened to Bloody Friday? I guess the conspiracy theory is dwindling.
Didn't you get the memo? This week it was WPSD
I sold short BBY 19P into the carnage on wednesday, looks like gonna keep the premium unless it suddenly tanks in next 20min(can happen, but low probability)
NAV 29.95, the 30 not called away. kept the $1prem. will see monday if this was a good thing or a bad thing. the july 30 are paying 2.7 but 31 looked better to me at 2.25, IV at 72. Will hopefully rewrite Monday. Good luck to all
..... Greece potentially about to send the markets back to 1987.
LOL....The way it is going, market will probably rally 300-350 points on Monday on whatever the greece results outcome is. If austerity party wins, ECB will come out and give $1T to european banks, If other party wins, stock markets party again. In case no party wins, market will rally on the "relief".
In sane markets, Spain & Italy downgrades, negative economy results in US in last 2 days would have been enough to bring down the markets by 5%-7%. Italy/Spain are much much bigger than Greece. Today also, IMF warned on Spain economy but markets kept going up.
Now, all irresponsible economies are guaranteed to get trillions even though everybody knows that is not going to be enough even for couple of years.
Satriani said: mariusz said: zrz123 said: anyone betting on FB 29 calls? You'd figure they would close it under $28 since call OI is much higher than put OI, so they can keep the $28 call premiums, but what do I know... MM's have their own agenda.
Either that or MMs don't manipulate equity prices as much as believed.
No for those not old enough to remember "Resumida como: "Aquellos que no recuerdan el pasado, están condenados a repetirlo." Jorge Santayana.
Think Mexico, Argentina and Brazil 1978-1982. We have a foreign flight to safety (relative). Foreign money has bid the 10y T below 1.75% squeezing out US investment funds. Where do US funds have to go? Rot like Facebook etc. Gold in a deflationary atmosphere is a wasting asset. We aren't deflationary but with the foreign currency panic we might as well be. Commodities are off, most all currencies are off except the Renmimbi and access to that is controlled by the Chinese government. A banking panic in a foreign country can offset anything logical in our market by flooding it with foreign investors. Remember the Bank Holiday of 1933 was triggered by the collapse first one bank in Austria followed by dominoes elsewhere including the US. Comprende? That is Keynesian economics and Milton Friedman debunked all that (NOT!)
I bet on the Swiss franc early while it was in the high 80's. It went to .76F:$1 then the Swiss government intervened and it is .95-.96:$1 now. So the only other currency of "value" isn't safe from manipulation either. You might try the yen if you can find anything worth buying at today's currency prices.
Remember the old Chinese curse: May you live in interesting times.
Well, I'm now out of my CHK position and back to being 100% in cash. The shares that I had will be called away tomorrow and the puts that were open will expire worthless.
I don't think milton friedman debunked keynesians nor milton friedman thought he did that. His famous work on the monetary base during the great depression confirms keynesian liquidity trap theory. He actually called himself a keynesian in the 60s.
Other than that freaking financial crisis meltdown and subsequent recovery where we had 600-700 point swings on a daily basis I can't recall the last time I even cared about these day to day movements. That said, if recent history (decade) is any guide, DOW above 10,000 is a decent time to sell, Dow above 12,000 is a very good time to sell, Dow above 13,000 is the time to sell, no doubt.
Of course one day we won't go below 13,000 ever again and that'll be the time DS moved 100% to cash.
colebert said: OUT 3000 DMND @ 18.25 (2,289.99 loss)
Not going to keeping sitting in this chew toy for shorts over the weekend with Greece potentially about to send the markets back to 1987.
Should have sold (or bought protection puts) when I was +$6000.
I'm not going to say it's a "lesson learned" but it's some sort of educational experience. man, i feel your pain dude.to be up like that, then down... would be drive be nuts in the short term. but i think you usually make good calls so hopefully your cake will absorb that.
I'm forecasting a rally on mon. only thing 'Grease' needs is radical left not to win,and by the look of it, it's gonna be another 6 way tie at worse, and our mkt should oblige it as it's looking for any excuse to rally.
I'm about to put all my chips into ARNA (I know... said tht b4, now thousands of proft NOT in my pocket later), just don't give a shit anymore. going to trust it'll continue to rise into PDUFA, but might be tempted to sell just prior to. Was thinking of July or Oct calls but too expensive now.
DavidScubadiver said: Other than that freaking financial crisis meltdown and subsequent recovery where we had 600-700 point swings on a daily basis I can't recall the last time I even cared about these day to day movements. That said, if recent history (decade) is any guide, DOW above 10,000 is a decent time to sell, Dow above 12,000 is a very good time to sell, Dow above 13,000 is the time to sell, no doubt.
Of course one day we won't go below 13,000 ever again and that'll be the time DS moved 100% to cash. You make an extremely lucid point. Seems we are almost there again and w/ QE, it'll be almost a certainty to rally another 1000. So what do to at these pre Lehman collapse heights? The Gov't keeps saying one thing, but the statistics all tell another. Last collapse started in Bull Season too. By March 2009, shaved 60%; I don't have the pain threshold for that...
Are any of you here still recovering financially from hard hits in 2009?
EDIT: Pro austerity won in Greek Election. Since this is good risk on news, looking forward to risk -off- tomrrow, haha!
kantscholar said: Well, I'm now out of my CHK position and back to being 100% in cash. The shares that I had will be called away tomorrow and the puts that were open will expire worthless. buy-write?
We won't officially know for two weeks but the New Democratic party and SYRIZA are less than 3% apart. NDP and PASOK will have a majority in parliament because of the 50 seat bonus for NDP finishing first but a minority of the vote. That was a major contributing factor to the last governmental collapse. BBC and DTW aren't so sure all is well as CNBC. The nightmare scenario is:
"There is a detailed procedure for new countries to enter the eurozone but no procedure for leaving it, so we would be in uncharted waters if that happened. What many people fear is that a SYRIZA-led government would simply start printing new drachmas and announce that as of a certain date drachmas were in, euros were out, the initial conversion rate was 1 to 1 but henceforth the new drachma would float against the euro and dollar. What a lot of governments and bankers are scared to death of is seeing their 100-million-euro loan to Greece become a 100 million new drachma loan at midnight when the new currency kicked in and have that be worth 20 million euros at 9 A.M. when the market decided that a new drachma was worth only 20 eurocents ($0.25)." http://electoral-vote.com/
That is why everyone is running for dollars and the Swiss are about to bankrupt themselves defending the franc by buying euros.
According to Reuters, New Democracy took 29.5 percent of the vote and the socialist PASOK party took 12.3 percent--giving the pro-bailout parties a majority or 161 seats in the 300-seat parliament.
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