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Whoa!

Check out CBMX. Up $6.53 (331.47%) to $8.50

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do want (47.57kB)
Disclaimer
usernamemax20charact said:   Whoa!

Check out CBMX. Up $6.53 (331.47%) to $8.50

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Here's my take on Apple after reading a bunch of articles. Full Disclosure: I own Apple shares but a 20% drop won't kill me.

Bottom line I think the drops/rises are all about Capital Gains tax. If you bought at $200 or $300 you would be fool not to sell now and lock in the 15% rate. For some of the big dogs that's a huge difference in taxes to the probable 40% next year. I see a pattern. Tax seller keep selling until the price drops to 505-525. Then the price goes back up. Why? Because some of the big dogs who just sold are rebuying. Which is a very smart move. They are both locking in a low tax rate for 2012 and a low price stock going into 2013.

So why was there a huge jump to 595 a few weeks ago? Simple. Rumors of a special dividend attract tons of short term flippers who saw an easy opportunity to make 5% in a few days. Once it became evident that no dividend was coming a bunch of them sold. I think the price will continue to go up and down between 515-565 for the rest of the year as more tax sellers sell and rebuy.

But what about all the concerns brought up by analysis? Funny how these analysis only bring out all these reasons AFTER the stock drops. I did not see any of these guys bringing up these concerns when the stock was moving up from 500-705.

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I'll be looking to reenter AAPL Jun 13 options next week if it gets back to the 515-520 range. I still think we may touch the high 400s by end of the year so I will reevaluate around there also.

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usernamemax20charact said:   Whoa!

Check out CBMX. Up $6.53 (331.47%) to $8.50


Market cap $2M???

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bet: aapl gaps up 1+% in PM on Mon.

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bingFB said:   I'll be looking to reenter AAPL Jun 13 options next week if it gets back to the 515-520 range. I still think we may touch the high 400s by end of the year so I will reevaluate around there also. smart. I think it looks to support there, and doesn't touch the previous 506.

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rgthree said:   Here's my take on Apple after reading a bunch of articles. Full Disclosure: I own Apple shares but a 20% drop won't kill me.

Bottom line I think the drops/rises are all about Capital Gains tax. If you bought at $200 or $300 you would be fool not to sell now and lock in the 15% rate. For some of the big dogs that's a huge difference in taxes to the probable 40% next year. I see a pattern. Tax seller keep selling until the price drops to 505-525. Then the price goes back up. Why? Because some of the big dogs who just sold are rebuying. Which is a very smart move. They are both locking in a low tax rate for 2012 and a low price stock going into 2013.

So why was there a huge jump to 595 a few weeks ago? Simple. Rumors of a special dividend attract tons of short term flippers who saw an easy opportunity to make 5% in a few days. Once it became evident that no dividend was coming a bunch of them sold. I think the price will continue to go up and down between 515-565 for the rest of the year as more tax sellers sell and rebuy.

But what about all the concerns brought up by analysis? Funny how these analysis only bring out all these reasons AFTER the stock drops. I did not see any of these guys bringing up these concerns when the stock was moving up from 500-705.


makes sense. especially the last part; they were hooting and hollering during earnings call about 'buy here' blah blah blah. i said then they just wanted someone to sell to so they were bolstering the stock.

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I think AAPL should do a 5:4 split and not tell anyone. Boy that would be fun.

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I think apple should quit stabbing me in the chest. Feels like im in a relationship with a stripper.

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Here's my crazy Sunday prediction for Apple.

I think there will be a strong rally for Apple closing the year. Fiscal cliff will be solved, tax selling will wrap up, tax selling on the shorts side will accelerate (shorts need to close their positions before year end also to lock in lower rate), China sales hype will begin, and early earnings estimates should be coming in. I'm predicting Apple will close in the 680-700 range.

January will bring a ton of buyers back who sold because of the cliff. Also sellers who have wash sales considerations. I can see Apple breaking the all time high pre-earnings. I'm predicting a blowout earnings report in January. Most profits in a quarter in the history of the stock market. Suddenly funds and private investors will no longer worry about product cannibalization, shrinking margins, and shrinking market share. Having the best quarter in history makes you forget the long term. I'd say the stock will threaten 800 from then to the next earnings report in April.

But the real bombshell will come out latter in 2013. The catalysis that will propel Apple to over $1000. LOL. Yes, I said it over a $1000. What is that catalysis? iTV. Will it be a standalone TV or just a box to connect o your TV? Both. You can either buy the box by itself or buy the slick looking tv/box in one. Apple needs to make a huge splash. Releasing just a box would not do that. But releasing just a tv would limit sales to only people looking to get a new TV. This way they get the best of both worlds. Amazing marketing hype from the tv (trust me it will be the most beautiful tv ever design wise) and amazing sales from the stand alone box.

So what makes the iTV a must have? The same thing that the other apple iProducts do best. Beautiful design, easy to use, and easy integration with other apple products and ecosystem. I think we can easily assume that apple has the design part of the equation. Their products just look and feel so much nicer than anything else on the market. Current TV's on the market are not ugly, but I would not call them beautiful either. I'm not faulting TV manufactures either. I'm sure that they do not have the green light to add hundreds of dollars in production cost to produce a tv that looks beautiful. Second it will be easy to use. The user interface on time warner cable is just horrible. The HD-DVR boxes are slow and laggy. Its a pain trying to find channels and navigate. iTV will change all that. It will be the easiest, most user friendly user interface ever. It will actually be a joy to find programing, record programing, and browse the channels. A totally different experience than what I've been experiencing with TimeWarner/Dish.

But I think the key area is integration with previous apple products. Anyone can see the easy integration an iTV can have with iTunes, Apple Store, and iCloud. But I think what will be the selling point is hardware integration. I'm convinced that the iTV's remote will be an iPad and iPhone. This will be a huge selling point to the hundreds of millions of iPad/iPhone users. Those devices will be amazing TV remotes. Let me give you some examples.

Picture In Picture - a very useful device on TV's and cable user interfaces. But really flawed and irritating. The problem is the small picture always seems to block the large picture no matter what you do. Solution: the picture in picture window will not be the tv set but rather on the ipad. Amazing. This feature alone will be amazing for those who like the PIP feature but are frustrating with its limitations.

Channel Guide - I absolutely hate the channel guide for Time Warner. Instead of having the guide show up on the tv it will show up on your ipad. Not only that the user interface will be amazingly simple. Your favorites will be a click away. Channels will be sorted by type = sports, movie, ect. Selecting shows to record will easy as cake.

DVR - I think this would be an exciting feature. Imagine you are watching a show but you need to go to work. You press pause, leave you house. When you reach your office you turn on your iPhone/iPad, click on the iTV app and press play and continue to watch your show. Or watch a recorded show on your iPad at the airport. That would be amazing stuff. The tech is all there to do this (iCloud) but its something so simple but so amazing.

Other features - Siri. If Apple fixes Siri the potential with the iTV will be amazing. Interactive advertising. Say you are watching a commercial and its a product you find interesting. Simply press the 'more info' button on your iPad. Instantly the products weblink is sent to your shopping app. Not only would that be great for the shopper but also great for advertiser. But it could also be a revenue stream for Apple, similar to what Google does with search click throughs. Sending clips of shows. This may get tricky but imagine if you could send a 30 second clip of what you saw on tv to your friends? Yes you can already do this with certain software but its not easy. With an ipad App this could be a seamless feature. Simply click on 'share' and mark the beginning and ending of the tv clip and send. If they made this feature limit the clips to 30-60 seconds I don't think there will a problem with the content providers. Hell, its almost like free advertising.

I know all the features above are possible at this time with certain programs. But its not easy to do at this moment. Just like the ipod was not the first MP3 player but it was the first that brought all the features together in an easy to use package.

But the big Gorilla in the room is the Cable/Dish content providers. How will Apple get enough content to be a standalone content provider? Answer is they won't. It will be a partnership with TimeWarner/DirectTV. The iTV user interface will simply be the front-end of whatever channels the content provider has. Yes, if you are a TimeWarner customer or a DirectTV customer you will see the same user interface with iTV. The only difference is the channels available. What will be the incentive for the Cable/Sat companies? If iTV takes off they know they will need to offer it in order to stay competitive. I think this a very realistic possibility especially with the recent comments from the TimeWarner CEO who said he welcomes an iTV.

I think with iTV hype and subsequent release in 2013 the stock could easily reach $1000.

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You forgot:

- Will do something similar to Intel's WiDi on all Apple devices (MacBook's, iPhone, iPad, iPod touch, etc)
- Play games (just purchase and download them from iTunes store a la Steam). You can even play demo games before buying. Say bye-bye to your PS3, XBOX 360, and Nintendo.

iTV is going to be one giant entertainment media hub.

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rgthree green for the typing...

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rgthree why not just get a Tivo? They have already developed almost everything you are talking about and implemented it. Plus the cost of a Tivo which is high will be cheaper then your iTv.

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masher4077 said:   rgthree why not just get a Tivo? They have already developed almost everything you are talking about and implemented it. Plus the cost of a Tivo which is high will be cheaper then your iTv.

is the Tivo interface as easy to use as iOS? Can you play your itunes music/video/apps on the Tivo? I haven't looked at a Tivo in a while.

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Was that whole badinstincts thing real or some hoax to promote this thread. It seems to have done that, and brought a dozen average daily questions and worthless comments. Where do I go to find some worthwhile, constructive conversation?

You know who you are: Please continue to post your trades, some of us really enjoy (and more often than not profit) from them!

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rgthree said:   Here's my take on Apple after reading a bunch of articles. Full Disclosure: I own Apple shares but a 20% drop won't kill me.

Bottom line I think the drops/rises are all about Capital Gains tax. If you bought at $200 or $300 you would be fool not to sell now and lock in the 15% rate. For some of the big dogs that's a huge difference in taxes to the probable 40% next year. I see a pattern. Tax seller keep selling until the price drops to 505-525. Then the price goes back up. Why? Because some of the big dogs who just sold are rebuying. Which is a very smart move. They are both locking in a low tax rate for 2012 and a low price stock going into 2013.

So why was there a huge jump to 595 a few weeks ago? Simple. Rumors of a special dividend attract tons of short term flippers who saw an easy opportunity to make 5% in a few days. Once it became evident that no dividend was coming a bunch of them sold. I think the price will continue to go up and down between 515-565 for the rest of the year as more tax sellers sell and rebuy.

But what about all the concerns brought up by analysis? Funny how these analysis only bring out all these reasons AFTER the stock drops. I did not see any of these guys bringing up these concerns when the stock was moving up from 500-705.


Full disclosure: I am long thousands of shares of apple and down 6 figures on this stupid stock. I am not proud of the way I've traded apple.

I think you are wrong about tax loss selling. Why? Say I'm an apple holder from 300 and I want to take my gains now before tax rates rise. I can sell it at 550 or whatever, lock in the gains and rebuy it immediately after and reset the whole thing. Therefore, tax loss selling will only impact the stock if people are taking profits but no longer believe in the apple story. There is no holding period requirement on gains, only losses.

I'm still puzzled by why people keep making a big deal out of the tax loss selling. It can only have a significant impact if people are not repurchasing the stock. If that's the case, it's not really tax loss selling. It's the fact people no longer are as bullish on apple long term. However, we all know most apple longs from 300/400 are die hard fans who still believe.

The stock is actually getting hit with tax LOSS selling, not gain selling. I am sitting on losses and might just throw in the towel and take my losses soon to offset my gains this year. Apple has spent most of the year well above the current price. That means 70-90% of the buyers who bought this year are probably sitting on losses. As apple keeps dropping, it creates more selling pressure.

I do think apple will rebound early next year. The question is from where.

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well for tax losses, it's better to sell after jan 1. Losses are more valuable next year.

For tax gain selling, the same should apply to all other stocks with great past gains. Are these happening?

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rtlguru said:   rgthree said:   Here's my take on Apple after reading a bunch of articles. Full Disclosure: I own Apple shares but a 20% drop won't kill me.

Bottom line I think the drops/rises are all about Capital Gains tax. If you bought at $200 or $300 you would be fool not to sell now and lock in the 15% rate. For some of the big dogs that's a huge difference in taxes to the probable 40% next year. I see a pattern. Tax seller keep selling until the price drops to 505-525. Then the price goes back up. Why? Because some of the big dogs who just sold are rebuying. Which is a very smart move. They are both locking in a low tax rate for 2012 and a low price stock going into 2013.

So why was there a huge jump to 595 a few weeks ago? Simple. Rumors of a special dividend attract tons of short term flippers who saw an easy opportunity to make 5% in a few days. Once it became evident that no dividend was coming a bunch of them sold. I think the price will continue to go up and down between 515-565 for the rest of the year as more tax sellers sell and rebuy.

But what about all the concerns brought up by analysis? Funny how these analysis only bring out all these reasons AFTER the stock drops. I did not see any of these guys bringing up these concerns when the stock was moving up from 500-705.


Full disclosure: I am long thousands of shares of apple and down 6 figures on this stupid stock. I am not proud of the way I've traded apple.

I think you are wrong about tax loss selling. Why? Say I'm an apple holder from 300 and I want to take my gains now before tax rates rise. I can sell it at 550 or whatever, lock in the gains and rebuy it immediately after and reset the whole thing. Therefore, tax loss selling will only impact the stock if people are taking profits but no longer believe in the apple story. There is no holding period requirement on gains, only losses.

I'm still puzzled by why people keep making a big deal out of the tax loss selling. It can only have a significant impact if people are not repurchasing the stock. If that's the case, it's not really tax loss selling. It's the fact people no longer are as bullish on apple long term. However, we all know most apple longs from 300/400 are die hard fans who still believe.

The stock is actually getting hit with tax LOSS selling, not gain selling. I am sitting on losses and might just throw in the towel and take my losses soon to offset my gains this year. Apple has spent most of the year well above the current price. That means 70-90% of the buyers who bought this year are probably sitting on losses. As apple keeps dropping, it creates more selling pressure.

I do think apple will rebound early next year. The question is from where.


But I think those who are locking in their gains are noticing they can rebuy at a lower price. So they are waiting to buy when it hits 505-520. Then stock runs up to 560 and more tax selling occurs. I think this pattern will return for the rest of the year. The new long term capital gains tax will probably be 5-10% more than 2012. That is 25-50 points off of the stock price. Also don't forget those trying to lock in short term capital gains. Those will possible go up 5-10% also.

I'm expecting the stock price to linger in the 505-560 range the rest of the year. The calender turning will boost the price to about 585-615 without the tax pressure. A blowout earnings could easily push the stock over 700. Will it happen? I'm not sure, but I'm not willing to give up on Apple just yet.

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tomprc said:   well for tax losses, it's better to sell after jan 1. Losses are more valuable next year.

For tax gain selling, the same should apply to all other stocks with great past gains. Are these happening?


Apple has always been a stock with pretty big dips and jumps. In Oct 2011 it hit 422 and dropped to 366 in Nov about a 13% drop. Earlier this year it hit $636 on 4/9/12 and then dropped to $530 on 5/18/12. That was a 17% drop. Our recent drop from 705 to 525 was a 25%. Bigger than earlier drops but that extra 5-10% could be attributed to the tax selling, fiscal cliff, Obama's re-election, and 705 could have been a too high in the first place.

For me the bottom line is despite the ugly graph Apple is still a strong company. It still dominates the tablet market and iPhones sales are stronger than ever. They may be losing some market share but the overall market is getting bigger and bigger. Looking back I think a fair price for apple right now would be 600-625. All it would take for the price to blast over 700 is a strong earnings report in Q1/Q2 or the hype of a new product line like iTV.

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last aapl play for me for awhile. bought aapl mar 13 650 call @ 7.00 x5.

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Poor Goldman Sachs employees, crying because their bonuses are only $100K or less this year, what a pity. Poor bastards, how will they ever make the ends meet? Gonna have to sell the Ferrari or the vacation home in the Bahamas, what a misery!!!

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^ at least they still have the Hamptons mansion; god forbid it be TOL.

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AppleMaps could kill you in Australia. The media is having alot of fun bashing Apple.

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Out of BBY @ 12.25, and glad that I cancelled my limit order at 11.80 cause that would've triggered today.
Edit: of course it continues to go up to $12.4x once I did that. Ha. I wish schwab let you do trailing stop orders on the website

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EDU bounced from 16.40 to 18.20
Keep going.

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KLineD said:   Out of BBY @ 12.25, and glad that I cancelled my limit order at 11.80 cause that would've triggered today.
Edit: of course it continues to go up to $12.4x once I did that. Ha. I wish schwab let you do trailing stop orders on the website


So you got the divvy and the price bounce!!! Nice job!!!
I think they have to cut the divvy, cash flow could be used better

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yeah that was the whole point. but i'm saying that it'd be nice to have some of the more advanced trading options on the website, rather than having to use those specialized apps, since then i wouldn't have to get out at 12.25 but could get out as soon as the "current" trend up stopped... especially if they dont have a mac native app, or an iOS app. pain in the butt to have to load windows from a VM, etc.

Out of MERU @ 2.58 for a loss -- planning to pick it up if it dips again to what it just was last week, 2.1x. Tired of seeing these 2.10-2.50 swings in the past month(s) and not doing anything about it.

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DNDN

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mfw (58.80kB)
Disclaimer
colebert said:   WEB: BOT +140 DNDN 100 FEB 13 5 CALL @.36 CBOE

Order filled around 1pm central but I was on my ipad so I didn't have an easy way to cut & paste it.


35 out at .72
35 out at .82
55 out at .78
15 out at .74

Position closed

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Apple cant do anything right:

Announce iPad mini will be $329 - analysis are mad. Say the price is too HIGH to compete with Kindle Fire/Nexus ect. and they won't sell enough of them

Apple sells a ton of iPadMini's - analysis ding apple because the price is too LOW. Analysis are also mad they are selling too much of the iPadMini.

ok

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rgthree said:   masher4077 said:   rgthree why not just get a Tivo? They have already developed almost everything you are talking about and implemented it. Plus the cost of a Tivo which is high will be cheaper then your iTv.

is the Tivo interface as easy to use as iOS? Can you play your itunes music/video/apps on the Tivo? I haven't looked at a Tivo in a while.


Yes interface is a lot easier to use then iOS. iOS works great when you have a touchscreen device, when your watching TV you don't want a touchscreen device you want a device with buttons you dont have to look for. Touch screen adds another light source which is not a good idea when trying to watch TV especially if you are doing it in the dark. I haven't used it but http://supersync.com/tivo.php allows you to access itunes. Tivo has Netflix, Amazon, and youtube already built in. Also has integration with ipad already. If I open Tivo app on ipad while watching something it instantly brings up the imdb info on the show, actors, etc.

Relook at Tivo has more features then people realize.

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rgthree said:   Here's my take on Apple after reading a bunch of articles. Full Disclosure: I own Apple shares but a 20% drop won't kill me.

Bottom line I think the drops/rises are all about Capital Gains tax. If you bought at $200 or $300 you would be fool not to sell now and lock in the 15% rate. For some of the big dogs that's a huge difference in taxes to the probable 40% next year. I see a pattern. Tax seller keep selling until the price drops to 505-525. Then the price goes back up. Why? Because some of the big dogs who just sold are rebuying. Which is a very smart move. They are both locking in a low tax rate for 2012 and a low price stock going into 2013.

So why was there a huge jump to 595 a few weeks ago? Simple. Rumors of a special dividend attract tons of short term flippers who saw an easy opportunity to make 5% in a few days. Once it became evident that no dividend was coming a bunch of them sold. I think the price will continue to go up and down between 515-565 for the rest of the year as more tax sellers sell and rebuy.

But what about all the concerns brought up by analysis? Funny how these analysis only bring out all these reasons AFTER the stock drops. I did not see any of these guys bringing up these concerns when the stock was moving up from 500-705.
I have 16,000 in short term losses on AAPL and $6,000 in long term gains. Would i be a fool not to sell my shares bought at 395 or a fool to not sell my shares and reap the loss that I can use to offset realized gains?

Put aside the question of whether I was a fool to buy so much to incur the 16,000 loss. What's done is done.

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might be one of those apple days!

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up 30% on my aapl calls... FOR NOW

bouncing off 540. couldn't help it, locked it in; out a 8.65. (in from 7.00)


edit: did i just hear someone talk about the defunct Tivo? interesting whenever I hear the Tivo in a context outside of 'lawsuit'.


edit 2: SOLD TOO SOON!

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weekly 540 doubled.


sorry, i'll shut up now. :/

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DS,
The way I am looking at it is this... do I take a $100 profit at 15%, or, a $200 profit at 25%?

of course, there's absolutely nothing stopping you from taking only the loss now, waiting 30 days, and buying it back...

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Its ok. Im still in my 2140 PXP shares at 44.93. Today I was actually up a few hundred dollars at opening bell. Could have sold and rebought in for 25 cents lower. When I dont take profit, it continues to drop. When I do take profit, it runs beyond. Take my MMM for example. Got out at high 90. Now its 2 bucks higher. Ugh *facepalm*

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Out of ARUN at $21.45 for another nice profit. Now to wait once again for it to drop to $18, and repeat. Will exit ACN today at $70.5x+, leaving me with just having to dump CSCO by end of the year. I'm waiting for $~21.

Edit: Out ACN @ 70.70

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