Individual Stock Discussions

jd2010 said:   rtlguru said:   kjgco said:   rgthree said:   <...>

I got info from this site:
http://www.maximum-pain.com/apple-max-pain.aspx

Next weeks max pain is 500 with large $$ on the line.I'm curious as to whether anyone has come across any actual statistical analysis of the max pain theory. It's been talked about for a long time, but has it been tested? Personally, I have questions about its validity, mainly because its use of the gross dollar amount of options sold doesn't take into account offsetting positions, both stock and option.

It's bs. Like anything in the stock market, there is no magic formula to predict future price.

I use it as one tool but as you can see in apple today, max pain works sometimes and doesn't other times!

I sell options naked all the time and I can tell you from experience max pain is just another tool like technical indicators, volume, etc etc.

Look at it this way, if max pain really worked, everyone would be rich simply by using a stupid online max pain calculator.

I wouldnt say it's BS, theres just a lot more to it than what we can make of it from an outsider's point of view.

You have to take into account what MMs are doing with both calls and puts, both writing and buying them, at multiple strikes. Then you have to balance that with the required outlay to manipulate the underlying security price to the desired #. Its too complicated for this brain to do all that math, but suffice it to say, check heavily traded option stocks like AAPL for the past 52 weeks what it closed at on Friday and I'd bet probably at least 30 of those times it closed within 25 cents of a $5 multiple on an option strike.

The reason you cant use it to predict price however is that MMs take advantage of any pricing pressures to sell or buy contracts into upswings or downswings and can then impact the price in the opposite direction. Like 50% of total call volume on weeklies is done on Friday, so the theoretical pin can quickly change.Pinning at a given strike price makes a certain amount of sense because of normal MM activity. Max pain, and the implication that there is some type of conspiracy at work to achieve it, is another matter entirely.
Also, if indeed there is little predictive use to the non-insider, why is there so much attention given to it on this board?

WallStreetPirate said:   INTC got perfectly pinned to $21 for opex, can't get any better than that. Got walked like a dog all day to close perfectly. Check chart for yourself, ping pong between MM's all day.Again, I agree that pinning to a given strike price is an understandable market phenomenon at least partially attributable to normal MM hedging activities. I own both INTC and AAPL, so I did take notice, but honestly didn't care. What I'm questioning is not pinning itself, but its predictive value and the max pain "manipulation" theory in general.

tanner12oz said:   whats everyone doing with ZNGA? i got some at 2.60 last week and think its moved to fast but on the other hand there is a crazy gap to fill and very little resistance around here (3.20 was key)
I think its fair that it went down to 2'ish, but I also think that the stock is a giant freeroll for online gambling in the UK, and probably for the specific states, NV, upcoming NJ, etc.

Their products leave much to be desired: buggy interfaces, system requirements that change with sequels. But I think its turned into a momo play, and zynga has eyeballs (users) that competitors don't.

The digital tractor business is a tough business.

Will the GS Tech conference move ZNGA even higher? I'm in at $2.71 in my trading account before earnings and I'm all in for a lot more shares at $3.08 in my Roth. I have trailing stop losses on both.

dump goog now. If Schmidt has no confidence why should we

ZNGA is soaring again.

flyalexair said:   rgthree said:   Apple Maxpain is 500 this week with Billions on the line.

http://www.maximum-pain.com/apple-max-pain.aspx

since this is a discussion forum, what exactly does it mean if AAPL this week's maxpain is 500? If it goes above 500 then what?

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/maxpain.asp#axzz2KbmX0xTn

I'll be watching KO tomorrow am

sure looks like thats the way its happening.....like i said earlier im nervous because i have big gains but the chart still has a ton of room....i think upgrades are almost a lock to come out this week....the gs converence aint gonna hurt us thats for sure

Some earnings plays that report tomorrow before open: FOSL, ZBRA, RAI, LVLT, GT

avalon6 said:   What happened to RGR? It dropped from 55 to 52 in a flash crash towards the end of trading.

news leak perhaps, big boys got some info and dumping or MM's picking off stops

AAPL up 5 points on a down day... 14 unread messages.

in for more ARNA @ 8.55, just can't seem to help myself.

high option IV on BWLD

Time to pick up RVBD again at 16. Love this see-saw.
edit: changed my mind. Set it at 15, will not hit today but probably within a month or so. Then back up to 22 where I'll let it go again

RGR crashed again this morning but is now recovering nicely. Someone is making money buying on those drops.

NILE reporting AMC, lot of movement expected based on IV

WallStreetPirate said:   NILE reporting AMC, lot of movement expected based on IV
interesting, checking out the calendar put spread IV on the MAY 30 and Feb 30
TRIP has a high IV too

joesmoe2012 said:   Marijuana stocks mentioned last week are mainly still doing well. Glad I got rid of some apple at a loss so I could put money in some of these stocks. Of course as soon as I sold apple it went up 30 points...


AVTC 11:48am EST 5.05 -0.15 -2.88% Chart, News, Stats, Board

CBIS 12:23pm EST 0.0769 0.01 +7.55% Chart, News, Stats, Board

COIN 12:17pm EST 0.0025 0.00 +25.00% Chart, News, Stats, Board

CTH.V 12:14pm EST 0.05 0.00 +0.00% Chart, News, Stats, Board

ERBB 12:21pm EST 0.0151 0.00 +43.81% Chart, News, Stats, Board

FSPM Feb 11 1.00 0.00 +0.00% Chart, News, Stats, Board

GRNH 12:23pm EST 0.12 0.02 +18.81% Chart, News, Stats, Board

GTLA Feb 8 0.0001 0.00 +0.00% Chart, Stats, Board

GTLA Feb 8 0.0001 0.00 +0.00% Chart, Stats, Board

GWPRF 11:22am EST 0.90 0.00 +0.00% Chart, News, Stats, Board

HEMP 12:22pm EST 0.082 0.01 +6.49% Chart, News, Stats, Board

HESG 11:10am EST 0.0002 0.00 +0.00% Chart, News, Stats, Board

MDBX 11:13am EST 55.00 -0.98 -1.75% Chart, News, Stats, Board

MJNA 12:23pm EST 0.4465 0.04 +8.90% Chart, News, Stats, Board

MWIP 12:23pm EST 0.101 0.01 +14.25% Chart, News, Stats, Board

NVLX 12:23pm EST 0.057 -0.00 -4.68% Chart, News, Stats, Board

PARS 12:20pm EST 0.0395 0.00 +12.86% Chart, News, Stats, Board

PHOT 12:23pm EST 0.084 0.01 +15.07% Chart, News, Stats

RFMK 12:20pm EST 0.0028 0.00 +40.00% Chart, News, Stats, Board

RIGH 12:20pm EST 0.0003 0.00 +50.00% Chart, News, Stats, Board

SAVW Feb 7 0.001 0.00 +0.00% Chart, News, Stats, Board

SFIO Feb 11 0.0002 0.00 +0.00% Chart, Stats, Board

SRER 10:57am EST 0.33 -0.07 -17.50% Chart, News, Stats, Board

TRTC 12:20pm EST 0.4801 -0.08 -14.27% Chart, News, Stats, Board

These appear to be all penny stock junk for real gamblers.

RAX reporting after hours. Gonna see some big moves, question is which way!