There has been numerous threads popping up over the last few months about how bad the US Economy is and poor fiscal responsibility of congress and various other healthcare and political threads. I would like to post a few reminders about how great the US actually is, in spite of these issues.
The US has around 5% of the Global population yet controls about 45% of global marketshare of wealth and value.
If you run beta regression analysis of the US Economy against the rest of the world's economy, you will notice about an 80% correlation such that 80% of the motion of other countries' economies is based upon the United States.
We started out at nothing a few hundred years ago and have grown substantially. Let's remember this as something to be thankful for this Thanksgiving.
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posted: Nov. 24, 2009 @ 8:05p
shimmeringtrance
Member
posted: Nov. 24, 2009 @ 8:21p
I agree we should be thankful. Lots of people in the world dont have the luxury of only worrying about what kind of TV they'll buy for Christmas, or if airline fares are higher this year. Or gas is high, or what kind of phone they should get. It's easy to lose sight of how good the majority of people in the US have it compared to many areas of the globe.
No worries here. I bought my turkey from Costco. I plan to return the carcass for a full refund. I'm returning it because of the "tough economic times".
tripleB said: If you run beta regression analysis of the US Economy against the rest of the world's economy, you will notice about an 80% correlation such that 80% of the motion of other countries' economies is based upon the United States.
"Correlation does not imply causation."
cameron2003
Senior Member - 2K
posted: Nov. 24, 2009 @ 8:54p
I will say a prayer this Thanksgiving thanking God for giving the USA more good stuff than other countries.
Financial things I'm thankful for this Thanksgiving: 1. Dow at 10,000, not at 1,000 2. GOOG 3. Lots of room for things to go wrong since I'm living far below my means 4. Due to #1, 2 & 3, can give money to people and causes who need it
tripleB said: There has been numerous threads popping up over the last few months about how bad the US Economy is and poor fiscal responsibility of congress and various other healthcare and political threads. Half of those belong to the tripleB subforum.
The US has around 5% of the Global population yet controls about 45% of global marketshare of wealth and value.Wealth and value is not the most important thing. What's important is the 5% of population produce 25% of world GDP.
Green this thread if you love America!Yeah right, great logic!
PraetorianGuard said: tripleB said: If you run beta regression analysis of the US Economy against the rest of the world's economy, you will notice about an 80% correlation such that 80% of the motion of other countries' economies is based upon the United States.
"Correlation does not imply causation."But it often strongly suggests causation.
nycll said: PraetorianGuard said: tripleB said: If you run beta regression analysis of the US Economy against the rest of the world's economy, you will notice about an 80% correlation such that 80% of the motion of other countries' economies is based upon the United States.
"Correlation does not imply causation."But it often strongly suggests causation.
Just because there is an 80% correlation with with the US market, does not mean that "80% of the motion of other countries' economies is based upon the United States." That's just silly.
Just because there is an 80% correlation with with the US market, does not mean that "80% of the motion of other countries' economies is based upon the United States." That's just silly.
We own almost half of the wealth of the globe and are importing most of the goods that other countries export. Why is it silly to think that 80% motion of international markets moves with the US market?
Just because there is an 80% correlation with with the US market, does not mean that "80% of the motion of other countries' economies is based upon the United States." That's just silly.
We own almost half of the wealth of the globe and are importing most of the goods that other countries export. Why is it silly to think that 80% motion of international markets moves with the US market?
I understand the point you were trying to make. I'm not debating that domestic events are a strong driver of international markets. I simply wanted to point out your usage of a common logical fallacy.
Many things can cause the markets in other countries to move in tandem with our own, such as commodity prices, availability of cheap credit, etc. There is no 1:1 relationship between market correlation and a singular cause. I suppose I'm nitpicking, but why try to gussy up your post by using concepts that you don't understand, to make it sound smarter than it is?
I could sum it up by saying: We control all the money LOLZ!
Always good to remember this. I made some significant missteps this year trying to outsmart the crisis and market. But at the end of the day I live debt free in a nice apartment getting a great education. God bless this country.
tripleB said: Green this thread if you love America!
Do I get shipped off to Guantanamo Bay if I give red?
Xnarg
Senior Member - 5K
posted: Nov. 25, 2009 @ 7:18a
tripleB said: We own almost half of the wealth of the globe and are importing most of the goods that other countries export...Don't worry. We're making huge strides in getting rid of that inequity.
jmackdaddy
Senior Member
posted: Nov. 25, 2009 @ 7:49a
PraetorianGuard said: I could sum it up by saying: We control all the money LOLZ!
PraetorianGuard said: tripleB said: If you run beta regression analysis of the US Economy against the rest of the world's economy, you will notice about an 80% correlation such that 80% of the motion of other countries' economies is based upon the United States.
"Correlation does not imply causation."
Agreed. My college professor would flunk me and fellow students ripped me apart when I took statistical analysis and make this "profound" observation about the correlation.
tripleB said: We own almost half of the wealth of the globe and are importing most of the goods that other countries export. Why is it silly to think that 80% motion of international markets moves with the US market?
Yes and no. The Chinese also "own" us. If they make a complete withdrawal today, we will be eating pigeon drumsticks for Thanksgiving tomorrow.
hkgfnt said: Yes and no. The Chinese also "own" us. If they make a complete withdrawal today, we will be eating pigeon drumsticks for Thanksgiving tomorrow.
The Chinese own our debt financing. If they tried to dump it all on the secondary market, it would send our interest rates for future financing up, but China would have to take a huge loss in the process. And if our economy is destroyed, then where would China ship all the stuff that it makes?
Quidnam
Member
posted: Nov. 25, 2009 @ 11:05a
tripleB said: Why is it silly to think that 80% motion of international markets moves with the US market? If you look at the equity market of most any individual country, you'll find that it is at least 80% correlated with the global equity market.
Of course the United States has an outsized influence in the global markets, but the global markets are the global markets. The equity markets of other countries do not "follow" the equity market of the United States as such. They move the way they move based on the macroeconomic outlook of the global economy, of which the United States is a large part (but only part).
wilkinru said: Enjoy, I'm moving to Australia. Good luck.Don't take "the grass is always greener on the other side" literally. Australia is not without problems.
Xnarg
Senior Member - 5K
posted: Nov. 25, 2009 @ 2:21p
scripta said: wilkinru said: Enjoy, I'm moving to Australia. Good luck.Don't take "the grass is always greener on the other side" literally. Australia is not without problems.Tru dat!
tripleB said: hkgfnt said: Yes and no. The Chinese also "own" us. If they make a complete withdrawal today, we will be eating pigeon drumsticks for Thanksgiving tomorrow.
The Chinese own our debt financing. If they tried to dump it all on the secondary market, it would send our interest rates for future financing up, but China would have to take a huge loss in the process. And if our economy is destroyed, then where would China ship all the stuff that it makes?
I know. It is a 2-way street. They are not taking their money out although all the spending being done by the president and congress is making them nervous. In return we continue to buy from them. We also make a few statements here and there about their human right issues but in general ignore it because of their cheap and decent products. We all are in it together, partners for life.
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