|
letting others take over with quick summary below ...
Edit by Moderator: For clean up and usability the thread has been moved here.
Deals that characterized the later stages of the bubble:
First time buyer seeking $300k with 0% down ... thread started 6/23/05 inserted by unk
New college grad with no prior RE experience looking to get into "flipping and interest only" ... 6/24/05 unk
Earnest as low as $100
============================================================================
US Cesnsus Bureau historical statistics on housing ownerehsip & vacancy rates
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/hvs.html
Dean Baker's CEPR site
http://www.cepr.net/pages/housing_bubble.htm
Professor Robert Shiller's site for Irrational Exhuberance, 2nd edition
http://www.irrationalexuberance.com/index.htm
Constantly Updated Links to Housing Bubble Articles
http://www.patrick.net/housing/crash.html#links
Housing Bubble Blog with Active Comment Section
http://patrick.net/wp/
Housing Bubble Blogger
http://thehousingbubble2.blogspot.com/
Metro housing tracker
http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/
Home Prices Do Fall: A Look At The Collapse Of The 1980's Real Estate Bubble Through The Eyes Of The New York Times
Average US weekly wages
http://www.bls.gov/ro9/qcewca.htm
Thanks for the thread, very interesting.
Especially since it's looking increasingly like long rates WILL increase a point or two before much longer, and probably stay somewhat higher, at least until we get this soaring deficit under control--which won't happen for awhile if GWB is re-elected (and might not even he's defeated.)
DaveHanson said:
<< Thanks for the thread, very interesting.
Especially since it's looking increasingly like long rates WILL increase a point or two before much longer, and probably stay somewhat higher, at least until we get this soaring deficit under control--which won't happen for awhile if GWB is re-elected (and might not even he's defeated.) >>
There probably won't be a rate increase until after the election. Bush will do everything in his power to make sure of that.
Afterwards is another story. If you own bonds or a bond fund, sell.
chiefw, you're confusing long and short-term rates. The market sets long-term rates, the Fed largely sets short-term rates.
You're probably correct, IMHO, that the Fed won't raise SHORT rates until after the election. Greenspan has abetted GWB so far, and there isn't much reason to think that will change--plus, inflation still isn't a worry.
hi WSM.
I hope home prices fall so I can actually afford a freakin home here in LA.
What happened to deflation ?
Consumer items and groceries seem cheaper than a few years ago, thanks to WalMart.
Crazytree said:
<< hi WSM.
I hope home prices fall so I can actually afford a freakin home here in LA. >>
If home prices fall by 15% in LA but mortgage rates are above 8%, how will homeownership be any easier for you?? If anything it will be more difficult.
He has more cash on hand so he has to finance less.
.
MarkM said:
<< buy at peak interest rates & sell at the low >>
Its very atypical for housing to appreciate much during a recession. When was the last time it did before the past 3 years ?
A 7% drop wouldn't be a big deal.. I could make half of that back by selling the house myself instead of using a realtor.. and no matter what.. if the price wasn't what I wanted.. I'd just stay where I am until it came back up.. high demand areas like southern california always come back .. they just don't make'em like this anymore 
There have been lot of predictions past few months/years. Nothing came out correct.Six months back, I've stopped looking for buying house,thinking prices will go down (in bay area,CA).But I was wrong.They actually went up.in fact, some places they went up 5% or so.
Another point most of us including myself missing is this 15% is from its peak.Let's say prices go up 10% from now and then there is 15% drop,so the net drop for you is around 5% which is not bad.Had I bought home six months ago, I would have been up by 5%, and that would have been my cushion for any drops.
Another point: The article does not take into consider the economy well being. Fed will raise rates only if economy is doing good.If economy is doing good, stocks are doing good.If stocks are doing good, people will have easy money (made from stcoks) and ready for huge downpayments. My viewpoint is only focuses bay area where stock prices matter a lot.In the boom days, people wrote checks for whole home price.
So why wait? You should buy now and can still ride some of the upside potentials left.
bozango123 said:
<< Fed will raise rates only if economy is doing good.If economy is doing good, stocks are doing good. >>
1. No. IMO, the Fed will raise rates after the presidential election. In all likelihood in an attempt to stabilize the crumbling dollar. Regardless of how the economy is going. Even my grandson understands that his kiddie savings account doesn't pay enough interest to make up for his lost purchasing power.
2. The economy can be doing well and stocks can be in the tidy bowl. All at the same time. It's happened before.
bozango123 said:
<< There have been lot of predictions past few months/years. Nothing came out correct.Six months back, I've stopped looking for buying house,thinking prices will go down (in bay area,CA).But I was wrong.They actually went up.in fact, some places they went up 5% or so. >>
Yes, such predictions have been made before & not come true. But perhaps one reason they did not come true was becasue mtg rates kept going down, when everyone thought they might already be as low as they could go. The very premise of this article (IF rates go to 8% ...) specifically takes continuation of that into account. In other words, the article itself concedes it's conclusions are irrelevant if the low rate environment of the last few years continues.
Alcibiades, you ask a good question. Does anyone have an answer?
unknownshopper said:
<< Even my grandson understands that his kiddie savings account doesn't pay enough interest to make up for his lost purchasing power >>
Has he shopped at WalMart recently ? Or the local supermarkets where you can get 6 boxes of Raisin Bran for $10. Thats the same price as 20 years ago.
.
$6 boxes for $10!?!? At Wal-Mart? You've got to be kidding me.
Even their cheap, bagged cereal is at least $2.50.
(and this is in poor Mississippi)
Steven V.
|
 |
|
|
While FatWallet makes every effort to post correct information, offers are subject to change without notice. Some exclusions may apply based upon merchant policies.
| Sign up for free today, because you don't want to miss out on any more cash back than you already have! There are currently 1,028,192 people just like you registered to earn Cash Back From FatWallet. Be the next! |
Sign up to join the discussion & earn Cash Back from FatWallet:
|
