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Do you bet money on this election as to who wins and stats?   If so- on what platform?

I have better this election. 

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I would have put up $1k if I could have been sure of payment.
I'm still wishing I'd put up enough at 6.2:1 to pay off my ... (more)

taxmantoo (Nov. 09, 2016 @ 10:30a) |

You were saying?

actionman1 (Nov. 09, 2016 @ 11:45a) |

So predict it takes CC charges and takes a 5% cut of withdrawls. There might be some interesting opportunity there...

DigiornosHunter (Nov. 18, 2016 @ 7:19a) |

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Hillary will win. /thread

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Can you still place a bet for very long odds on Trump?
I used to think he didn't stand a chance, now I'm thinking he stands a better chance than Romney or McCain did.
I'd place a sizable bet on Trump if I could get 10:1 odds on it.

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Curious about this also. What are the best betting venues?


Re: odds My stat prof. swears by this site's author http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

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Can get Trump around 3/1, but I doubt very much more than that.

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PredictIt and BetFair are the ones I always see mentioned.  On PredictIt you can get 4:1 odds for Trump, and on BetFair 7:2.

Edit: Now 5:1 on both with the latest Comey news.

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Where's my time machine?
I want to go back to last year when Trump bets were paying 150:1 and people thought the Republican candidate would be a governor or ex-governor.

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Too late now, but Iowa Electronic Markets:
https://tippie.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/

$500 max deposit, but you can re-bet your winnings -- made ~$250 last election betting on Obama in the WTA market.

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Yes, I placed a bet that the country will go further down the shtter. Im gonna win.

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I'm in from earlier this year at ~8:1 with betfair.

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5dimes has Hillary -600.

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Betfair just dropped below 6:1 on The Donald. I should have pulled the trigger 1/2 hour ago.

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how about betting thru the stock market?

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needhelpplease said:   how about betting thru the stock market?
  Buy volatility products (long VIX indexes, like via VXX), long gold, short Mexican peso, or long prison stocks like GEO/CXW should all do well if a Trump wins.  Feel free to buy OOTM calls on these long ones if you want to jack up the odds if you really want a many-or-nothing outcome.  Hillary is very much the status quo, Goldman-endorsed, "we can pay your Foundation to keep doing business" candidate, and with her favorable odds, I'd say more of those effects are mostly priced.  If you think she'll win, you could sell volatility on VIX or gold for example.

no intentional position on the election, but i expect I'm short rising tax rates so maybe I should hedge and bet she'll win to try to compensate for whatever bad deal will hit the Evil Rich (making $200k) under her proposed tax hikes.

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xerty said:   
needhelpplease said:   how about betting thru the stock market?
  Buy volatility products (long VIX indexes, like via VXX), long gold, short Mexican peso, or long prison stocks like GEO/CXW should all do well if a Trump wins.  Feel free to buy OOTM calls on these long ones if you want to jack up the odds if you really want a many-or-nothing outcome.  Hillary is very much the status quo, Goldman-endorsed, "we can pay your Foundation to keep doing business" candidate, and with her favorable odds, I'd say more of those effects are mostly priced.  If you think she'll win, you could sell volatility on VIX or gold for example.

no intentional position on the election, but i expect I'm short rising tax rates so maybe I should hedge and bet she'll win to try to compensate for whatever bad deal will hit the Evil Rich (making $200k) under her proposed tax hikes.

  
Volatility would be good if you only care on the election itself, as current vix closes on Wed. and being European options it means whatever is priced in as of Friday close, feel with today it should drop some along with Futures right now are looking at a 1% open. Although vxx for example only tracks short term which can make for a wild ride over next week with little control. Look at brexit vix charting jumping over 50% in the week, and falling hard again after.

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I'm long stocks and didn't hedge. That seems to be a Hillary bet, I don't have high expectations for the market if T wins. (Besides the nonsense specific bashing he's done on some of the companies I own stock in, like F which is the most American remaining car maker.)
However, nor do I have high expectations if H wins.

My prediction:
Heads we lose, tails we lose.

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Bend3r said:   I'm long stocks and didn't hedge. That seems to be a Hillary bet, I don't have high expectations if T wins. (Besides the nonsense specific bashing he's done on some of the companies I own stock in, like F which is the most american car maker.)
However, nor do I have high expectations if H wins.

Heads we lose, tails we lose.

  Companies I can remember trump bashing:
AAPL
SBUX
F
MDLZ
DIS
GOOG
Carrier
 

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taxmantoo said:   Can you still place a bet for very long odds on Trump?
I used to think he didn't stand a chance, now I'm thinking he stands a better chance than Romney or McCain did.
I'd place a sizable bet on Trump if I could get 10:1 odds on it.

  I'd give you 1,000:1 and promise that all the money you lost would be donated to a women's charity on Billy Bush's behalf.

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A thousand to one says the best qualified candidate will NOT be elected. Given the current political polls, I cannot lose since NONE OF THE ABOVE is the only properly qualified candidate.

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Matchbook currently has it a about 5:1, 6:1

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DJIA up 250 pts today... they know hillary will win... why don't you?

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it's not about what odds you get on win/loss.  that's too simple.
there are plenty of variables to lose your money on.  

the big play in my office is trump electoral votes. a few hundred $$ traded at 230, 220 and 210 as the debates came to a close and trump looked like he was tanking.  major size (like 6-10k) traded at 200 votes just before the latest fbi re-opening of the email investigation. on that news the market is now 230/250 and pretty much everyone is just waiting for tomorrow.

my gut said sell 200 but i'm not the type to bet.  i lost $20 on jeb bush being the R nominee.  it was his turn dammit.  

i broke my rule against throwing money away again, and now i'm long 10% trump/hillary popular vote spread in TX.

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trump electoral votes market 240/250.

aaaaaand 240s getting hit.

230/240 now.

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4/1 trading .. bigtime trump believer over here

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If you really think Trump will win, bet against the Mexican Peso.

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There have been some really interesting articles that lay out how Gary Johnson or Evan McMullen could become president in a crazy scenario where the vote goes to the house. Anybody offering 100,000:1 odds on that anywhere? I have $5 to waste...

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You can actually bet money legally on who will win on https://www.predictit.org/ 

Easiest profit I made was a 25% gain by going on all in the "Will Trump drop out by Oct 31" market in October. 

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Well shoot, PredictIt has maxed out the contracts for the Presidential races. They all say, "We have reached the maximum number of traders for this contract." Though VP is still open and is a reasonable proxy for Prez.

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hey Ruffles, want to explain your reds? i'll unblock you just for the day so you can.

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Anyone follow Sam Wang and http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/? He'll eat a bug if Trump get more than 240 EV. Also, he claims >99% probability Clinton wins.

I sold a chunk of stock today (I was far too over-weighted and was planning to sell anyway and it had a good jump today) in the even there is any chaos tomorrow. And by chaos, I mean anything unexpected. I'm betting a large downturn if the unexpected happens, but not much of an upturn if the expected happens.

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A pony has a better chance of winning the Breeders Cup than Herr Trump does of winning the election.

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Belgique, you're in luck. Wager at Betfair on Hillary to win, 1.22:1 odds, instant 22% return on investment.

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I read somewhere that a waging company in ireland has already paid out bets that had Hillary. That could cost em.

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kriskos4 said:   I read somewhere that a waging company in ireland has already paid out bets that had Hillary. That could cost em.
  

I wondered why anyone would do that.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/irish-bookie-already-paying-out... 


" Paddy Power often pays out early on bets in a bid to drum up publicity. "

 
I guess it worked for em.    

 

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jerosen said:   
kriskos4 said:   I read somewhere that a waging company in ireland has already paid out bets that had Hillary. That could cost em.
  

I wondered why anyone would do that.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/irish-bookie-already-paying-out... 


" Paddy Power often pays out early on bets in a bid to drum up publicity. "

 
I guess it worked for em.    

 

  It was only like $150k and they got $1.5MM in free publicity out of it.

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The betting window is still open:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419

Trump 1.7:1, Hillary 2.4:1 

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USD/JPY still taking bets

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Futures down about 4% on election results.

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Peso down ~10% to 20.xx to a dollar.

Skipping 18 Messages...
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So predict it takes CC charges and takes a 5% cut of withdrawls. There might be some interesting opportunity there...

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