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Hi All,

all campaign politics aside, we will have a new republican president with both congress being republican.

what do you see as upcoming changes we can guess will happen, he already promised repeal of dodd frank.

i myself expect:
1) higher interest rates in savings acct.
2) better economy at start because of his infrastructure investment plans/lower taxes for wealthy

any other expectations
3)

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Stock price diving 6%/8% in the short term is no lasting harm!

All the tweeter bravado Trump can throw at the companies, ... (more)

puddonhead (Dec. 05, 2016 @ 9:18a) |

You can mention George W. Bush's name

BostonOne (Dec. 05, 2016 @ 10:26a) |

>> You can mention George W. Bush's name

I had my timelines mixed up! Yes, Rich Barlow indeed got fired by GWB administra... (more)

puddonhead (Dec. 05, 2016 @ 10:36a) |

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invest heavy in fire and brimstone

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I don't think many people know.

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He's going to bring manufacturing jobs back to the rust belt. My rental business in MI will soar and i will be a millionaire several times over.
 

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rufflesinc said:   He's going to bring manufacturing jobs back to the rust belt. My rental business in MI will soar and i will be a millionaire several times over.
 

Not a chance.

Finance and energy will face less regulation. That's probably the surest bet out there.

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rufflesinc said:   He's going to bring manufacturing jobs back to the rust belt. My rental business in MI will soar and i will be a millionaire several times over.
Ruffles nailed it. End thread.

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BrianGa said:   
rufflesinc said:   He's going to bring manufacturing jobs back to the rust belt. My rental business in MI will soar and i will be a millionaire several times over.
 

Not a chance.

Finance and energy will face less regulation. That's probably the surest bet out there.

  More like Energy and Manufacturing,  Wall Street funded Clinton you know.
 

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forbin4040 said:   
BrianGa said:   
rufflesinc said:   He's going to bring manufacturing jobs back to the rust belt. My rental business in MI will soar and i will be a millionaire several times over.
 

Not a chance.

Finance and energy will face less regulation. That's probably the surest bet out there.

  More like Energy and Manufacturing,  Wall Street funded Clinton you know.

  so i will be a millionaire then??

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The wall building industry should prosper.

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jerosen said:   The wall building industry should prosper.
  As should the devices-to-protect-yourself-against-pu**y-grabbing market.

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rufflesinc said:   
forbin4040 said:   
BrianGa said:   
rufflesinc said:   He's going to bring manufacturing jobs back to the rust belt. My rental business in MI will soar and i will be a millionaire several times over.
 

Not a chance.

Finance and energy will face less regulation. That's probably the surest bet out there.

  More like Energy and Manufacturing,  Wall Street funded Clinton you know.

  so i will be a millionaire then??

  You're not already?

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People seem to be under the impression that the president has carte blanche in running the country, when in fact he still has to answer to senators/congress to change something.

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atikovi said:   
rufflesinc said:   
forbin4040 said:   
BrianGa said:   
rufflesinc said:   He's going to bring manufacturing jobs back to the rust belt. My rental business in MI will soar and i will be a millionaire several times over.
 

Not a chance.

Finance and energy will face less regulation. That's probably the surest bet out there.

  More like Energy and Manufacturing,  Wall Street funded Clinton you know.

  so i will be a millionaire then??

  You're not already?

  leverage 

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I think the only sure bet would be on whatever helps people grow thicker skin.  Kids will have to accomplish something to get a trophy, effort won't be synonymous with results, and people won't get special treatment just because they've declared themselves to be special.  I don't know how to play that for profit.

Frankly, aside from the different approach and administrative style, I don't see things being all that different.  At least not for quite a while.

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Deregulation should boost energy and banking sectors.  Those will be easy because associated industries have big lobbies and will pay off Congress to get prompt action.  Immigration is going to  be harder because of the lack of money behind it.

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atikovi said:   People seem to be under the impression that the president has carte blanche in running the country, when in fact he still has to answer to senators/congress to change something.
  You mean the same senators/congressmen that are in his party and are in awe that he won?

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dcwilbur said:    Immigration is going to  be harder because of the lack of money behind it.
Short agriculture and farming?

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Short vol until this all settles down?

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ensignlee said:   
atikovi said:   People seem to be under the impression that the president has carte blanche in running the country, when in fact he still has to answer to senators/congress to change something.
  You mean the same senators/congressmen that are in his party and are in awe that he won?

  That's like saying, you can count on everybody in your family to have your back, when in fact you may have a cousin or in law that won't give you the time of day. Just because the senators/congressmen are in the same party doesn't mean they will do everything he wants. They often have their own agenda in their home states which may differ from the collective view.

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This isn't a popular opinion in the general public, because people love attributing economic outcomes to political institutions, but here it is:

By and large, in a developed country with a semi-stable political regime (ie, the United States), the federal government's machinations have little relative impact on the economy. The term relative is important here. I am not arguing the federal government has no impact, because it does. But there are far more important forces which you can't control for: cyclical economic cycles, the decisions of central banks, globalization, innovations in technology, etc. All of these forces interact with what the federal government does in strange and unpredictable ways. Thus you really shouldn't be making decisions based on a power shift in the executive branch. Because even if you think you know what the new President will do, those actions will interact with forces beyond the control of the federal government in ways you can't hope to predict.

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My ideas:
1. Another bubble is going to start forming with all the deregulation (and even the anticipation of deregulation). Where - I can't tell you. But wherever it is - I'm sure it will pop up the equities!! So I will be watching the valuation of the equities sector very closely starting 2017 onwards.
2. Infra companies.
3. Companies that build industrial automation and control systems. Labor market is almost at full employment. Widely anticipated immigration crackdown, coupled with the minimum wage initiatives at some states should drive the market much tighter -> increasing the demand for automation.

​<Edited to Add> Second what Magika said. </Edited to add>

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Glitch99 said:   I think the only sure bet would be on whatever helps people grow thicker skin.  Kids will have to accomplish something to get a trophy, effort won't be synonymous with results, and people won't get special treatment just because they've declared themselves to be special.  I don't know how to play that for profit.

Frankly, aside from the different approach and administrative style, I don't see things being all that different.  At least not for quite a while.

There are folks on both sides of the aisle that pull themselves up by the bootstraps and folks on both sides of the aisle that clamor for handouts and special treatment. Not limited to one party or the other.

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​If Trump and the Republican congress are able to shut down ACA/Obamacare, will healthcare stocks being going up or down?

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megatard said:   ​If Trump and the Republican congress are able to shut down ACA/Obamacare, will healthcare stocks being going up or down?
  Depends what they replace it with. Though, with Republicans in control, it's unlikely that prescription drug price controls or federal gov't negotiating will be put in place, so pharmas should do OK.

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There are already a ton of articles out there with guesses on which stocks will prosper. Here is one from Forbes:

14 Stocks And 4 ETFs To Capitalize On The Trump Transition
http://www.forbes.com/sites/trangho/2016/11/11/best-stocks-to-ge...

Just like all Stock discussion, it looks like they probably got some right and some wrong. We'll have to wait four years though to find out which is which.

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ensignlee said:   
atikovi said:   People seem to be under the impression that the president has carte blanche in running the country, when in fact he still has to answer to senators/congress to change something.
  You mean the same senators/congressmen that are in his party and are in awe that he won?

  There may be a few of those, but it's far from the norm.  Far more are seen as adversaries, despite being with the same party.  I don't think it'll be long before we see party lines blurred, if not completely erased.  New lines will be more fluid, and vary based on the specific issue.

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BostonOne said:   
Glitch99 said:   I think the only sure bet would be on whatever helps people grow thicker skin.  Kids will have to accomplish something to get a trophy, effort won't be synonymous with results, and people won't get special treatment just because they've declared themselves to be special.  I don't know how to play that for profit.

Frankly, aside from the different approach and administrative style, I don't see things being all that different.  At least not for quite a while.

There are folks on both sides of the aisle that pull themselves up by the bootstraps and folks on both sides of the aisle that clamor for handouts and special treatment. Not limited to one party or the other.

  I consider it a Trump thing, not a political party thing.

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I have been following politics pretty closely since 1964, and I believe this election has resulted in much more uncertainty than any I've seen. Trump's positions have changed so much, and are often at odds with the Republican party, that I don't think anyone -- even Trump -- knows what to expect. Huge changes almost always have unintended consequences.

I have read that fed spending on science and R&D will be significantly cut back, which would be unfortunate.

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sadf

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Far from certain, but Trump may get rid of net neutrality. Good news for Comcast, etc. Here's Forbes:

Here's What The Trump Presidency Will Mean For Net Neutrality 

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UncaMikey said:   Far from certain, but Trump may get rid of net neutrality. Good news for Netflix, Comcast, etc. Here's Forbes:

Here's What The Trump Presidency Will Mean For Net Neutrality

  did not read article, but that may actually be bad for NFLX. good for ISP. Basically ISP can charge more for more speed.

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07pilot4me said:   
 
  did not read article, but that may actually be bad for NFLX. good for ISP. Basically ISP can charge more for more speed.

  Oops, you're right, I mistyped, fixed my post.

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The US economy will prosper if Trump cuts taxes and deregulates.

On the other hand if he goes through with protectionists policies and killing trade agreements that will be a huge negative -- inflation and much higher prices for consumers.

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brettdoyle said:   The US economy will prosper if Trump cuts taxes and deregulates.
  
Ah, the good ole piss at the top and let it trickle down strategy.

I'm gonna invest in weed companies cause everyone's gonna need to get baked soon.

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speedracer714 said:   
brettdoyle said:   The US economy will prosper if Trump cuts taxes and deregulates.
  
Ah, the good ole piss at the top and let it trickle down strategy.

I'm gonna invest in weed companies cause everyone's gonna need to get baked soon.

I think the number of states that have legalized weed for recreational or medicinal use Sky-rocketed this election cycle.  Investing in weed is likely a good business move. 

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Random thoughts:

- Agree that banking and energy stocks will probably see the biggest upside. Those are the whipping boys of the current administration... and have traditionally done well in GOP administrations.
- Tech stocks will be interesting. If a repatriation plan is passed, expect the tech powerhouses like Apple, MSFT, Google, etc to bring a bunch of money back to the US. OTOH, expect H1B visas to be significantly harder to get. Canadian development centers for those companies that have them will likely expand. Tariffs against Chinese goods will hurt the hardware companies.
- I am really curious to see if Yellen will increase interest rates in December. I bet there's a greater than 50% chance of this happening.

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Wondering how the oranges new tax plan will affect us. Wish I knew the details and tier levels.

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UncaMikey said:   Far from certain, but Trump may get rid of net neutrality. Good news for Comcast, etc. Here's Forbes:

Here's What The Trump Presidency Will Mean For Net Neutrality

  Didn't that orange ape say he was going to break up Comcast into small pieces?

Economically,I see us going back to 2008, except this time people are going to be in the streets protesting and rioting.

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1) Sell bonds
2) Increase your wage income

Skipping 153 Messages...
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>> You can mention George W. Bush's name

I had my timelines mixed up! Yes, Rich Barlow indeed got fired by GWB administration, and GWB is not holy enough in the pantheon of presidents who can't be named!!

However, the activities Rich Barlow wanted to whistle-blow about happened during the Holy One's watch!!

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