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Is it time to short the US dollar? index is at 100.. wow

Member Summary
Most Recent Posts
If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor!

user1337 (Nov. 16, 2016 @ 2:41p) |

Currency speculation is not for the faint of heart or the novice. If you have to ask, no!
/thread.

fwuser12 (Nov. 16, 2016 @ 6:56p) |

11/18/2016: Dollar strongest since 2003; bond selloff resumes: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-idUSKBN1... (more)

icecube (Nov. 18, 2016 @ 12:11p) |

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I'm at Vegas- should I put all on black? Does that sound like a good idea?

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listen....no matter what Trump does or not_does....it takes time to impact USA negatively....IF AT ALL....it's a behemoth and there's no close_up_runner_up type of country waiting right behind in line that can immediately step into the shoes and take over....

in all likelihood there is absolutely no imminent threat or danger to the Dollar anytime soon....

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dealgain said:   listen....no matter what Trump does or not_does....it takes time to impact USA negatively....IF AT ALL....it's a behemoth and there's no close_up_runner_up type of country waiting right behind in line that can immediately step into the shoes and take over....

in all likelihood there is absolutely no imminent threat or danger to the Dollar anytime soon....

  
Keep drinking that kool-aid. His policies are sure to tank the economy, create inflation, and cause others to seek out a new reserve currency. While this will not happen overnight, 1-3 years from now we will be in a world of hurt. For the first time in my life I am shorting 'Murica, all in. God bless indeed.

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Gold is going to $5000.00 per ounce...I heard it on a TV ad, so it has to be true!

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Rome took some 600 years to fully collapse with Eastern Rome thriving for a couple centuries long after Western Rome was done for.

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If your goal is to"short the dollar" then one way to do that is to borrow money at record low interest rates, buy assets, and repay the loans with the inflated dollars. Which is a decent plan even if the dollar doesn't inflate.

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gatzdon said:   Rome took some 600 years to fully collapse with Eastern Rome thriving for a couple centuries long after Western Rome was done for.
That was before nukes and twitter.

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I went long UUP in anticipation of Trump. Considering shifting to TBT. I believe bonds will get pummeled over next two years and stock market will continue its rise.

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SummerSoFar said:   
dealgain said:   listen....no matter what Trump does or not_does....it takes time to impact USA negatively....IF AT ALL....it's a behemoth and there's no close_up_runner_up type of country waiting right behind in line that can immediately step into the shoes and take over....

in all likelihood there is absolutely no imminent threat or danger to the Dollar anytime soon....

  
Keep drinking that kool-aid. His policies are sure to tank the economy, create inflation, and cause others to seek out a new reserve currency. While this will not happen overnight, 1-3 years from now we will be in a world of hurt. For the first time in my life I am shorting 'Murica, all in. God bless indeed.

  Personally this is my feedback......

I sincerely hope and wish and look forward to and pray that your statement never ever never ever comes true........I've not wished this hard for anything ever....

What he said during the campaigning as "Candidate Trump"...is totally & purely to gain votes.....now that he has to wear the shoes of "President Trump" for the next 4 years at a minimum and potentially 8 years......he will not necessarily do every single thing he said as "Candidate Trump".....sure enough it will cost him some votes after 4 years but ALSO it will gain him some votes.....net net...he is not a fool....he got himself nominated and then he got himself elected....so he must be some body with some think tank at his disposal

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dealgain said:   
SummerSoFar said:   
dealgain said:   listen....no matter what Trump does or not_does....it takes time to impact USA negatively....IF AT ALL....it's a behemoth and there's no close_up_runner_up type of country waiting right behind in line that can immediately step into the shoes and take over....

in all likelihood there is absolutely no imminent threat or danger to the Dollar anytime soon....

  
Keep drinking that kool-aid. His policies are sure to tank the economy, create inflation, and cause others to seek out a new reserve currency. While this will not happen overnight, 1-3 years from now we will be in a world of hurt. For the first time in my life I am shorting 'Murica, all in. God bless indeed.

  Personally this is my feedback......

I sincerely hope and wish and look forward to and pray that your statement never ever never ever comes true........I've not wished this hard for anything ever....

What he said during the campaigning as "Candidate Trump"...is totally & purely to gain votes.....now that he has to wear the shoes of "President Trump" for the next 4 years at a minimum and potentially 8 years......he will not necessarily do every single thing he said as "Candidate Trump".....sure enough it will cost him some votes after 4 years but ALSO it will gain him some votes.....net net...he is not a fool....he got himself nominated and then he got himself elected....so he must be some body with some think tank at his disposal

  
Look at this inner circle -- they are all radical outsiders for a good reason. If all of this doesn't make you crap your pants you deserve what is coming to you. Just saying.

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SummerSoFar said:   
Look at this inner circle -- they are all radical outsiders for a good reason. If all of this doesn't make you crap your pants you deserve what is coming to you. Just saying.
 

  Sooo... You would rather have an inner circle full of radical insiders?  So we can have more of the same?

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ChinaRider said:   
SummerSoFar said:   
Look at this inner circle -- they are all radical outsiders for a good reason. If all of this doesn't make you crap your pants you deserve what is coming to you. Just saying.

  Sooo... You would rather have an inner circle full of radical insiders?  So we can have more of the same?

  dow >18k, gas <$2, unemployment <5%, inflation <1% , 30 year mortgage .5% YES PLEASE

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ChinaRider said:   
SummerSoFar said:   
Look at this inner circle -- they are all radical outsiders for a good reason. If all of this doesn't make you crap your pants you deserve what is coming to you. Just saying.

  Sooo... You would rather have an inner circle full of radical insiders?  So we can have more of the same?

  You're applying the NOT to the wrong word.  Whether insiders or outsiders, they shouldn't be radical.

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If anything I've learned this the hard way. Just shorting something because it's high or buying low without respect to some other measure of valuation is a fools game. And even with a good opinion on valuation, it can still crush you.

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SummerSoFar said:     
For the first time in my life I am shorting 'Murica, all in.   

Sweet!  Someone to take the other side of my long.  Thx for lowering my basis.
 

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Roughly 40% of the world's sovereign debt is fetching negative rates. The Swiss Bond is negative out to 50 years. FIFTY.

"Abenomics" in Japan means they are essentially printing to infinity.

Draghi and the troika are instituting their version of QE in the Eurozone.

Low oil prices are devastating commodity countries like Russia, Australia, Canada, etc.

Many of the aforementioned are cutting interest rates.

The Fed is likely to raise rates next month.

And against all of that, you want to short the dollar? Yeah, good luck with that.

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S197 said:   Roughly 40% of the world's sovereign debt is fetching negative rates. The Swiss Bond is negative out to 50 years. FIFTY.

"Abenomics" in Japan means they are essentially printing to infinity.

Draghi and the troika are instituting their version of QE in the Eurozone.

Low oil prices are devastating commodity countries like Russia, Australia, Canada, etc.

Many of the aforementioned are cutting interest rates.

The Fed is likely to raise rates next month.

And against all of that, you want to short the dollar? Yeah, good luck with that.

  
What's your point? The dollar is infallible? Yea, good luck with that.

There are plenty of other fiat currencies ready and stable enough to take it's place.
 

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gatzdon said:   Rome took some 600 years to fully collapse with Eastern Rome thriving for a couple centuries long after Western Rome was done for.
  Question is where we are in the cycle.

Unfunded foreign wars...... check
Gladiators/ Football...check

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SummerSoFar said:   There are plenty of other fiat currencies ready and stable enough to take it's place.
Which currency is stable and ready to replace the USD?

- The Euro? Where more countries can replicate Brexit whenever they get enough nationalist sentiment to vote against staying in the EU? When a few members need financial bail outs? Euro does not seem that stable to me.
- The Yuan? Just as cash is flowing out and they're deciding to let it slide. You cannot predict which way China is gonna control its currency. That doesn't seem very stable to me.
- The Pound? Not since Brexit is sorted out at least. So maybe 2020. At this point, even the UK government does not seem to know how to handle Brexit plan at all, negotiations will not start until Spring 17 anyway and could last two years. Terms will affect UK economy greatly - and that of Euro zone as well. Plus there's no guarantee Scotland and NIR are gonna stay in the UK so as unstable as you'd like.
- The Ruble? Look at historic exchange rate. Currency lost half its value in 2014-2015 period. Forget the manipulation and on-going inflation, and increasing fiscal deficit in Russia, relationship with neighbors is in question, as well as with its biggest partner the euro zone. Good luck if that seems stable to you.
- The Bitcoin. Ok I had a tough time typing this without laughing too hard. Security of the exchanges is a joke. Infrastructure is extremely limited. Anyone thinking that is a system robust enough to be used as world standard needs his head checked or used a lot of their bitcoins on stuff they shouldn't have.

So what other fiat currency is robust and stable enough to become the currency of choice for world trade?

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Shandril said:   
 
So what other fiat currency is robust and stable enough to become the currency of choice for world trade?

  gold, bitches, gold!

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SummerSoFar said:   
dealgain said:   listen....no matter what Trump does or not_does....it takes time to impact USA negatively....IF AT ALL....it's a behemoth and there's no close_up_runner_up type of country waiting right behind in line that can immediately step into the shoes and take over....

in all likelihood there is absolutely no imminent threat or danger to the Dollar anytime soon....

  
Keep drinking that kool-aid. His policies are sure to tank the economy, create inflation, and cause others to seek out a new reserve currency. While this will not happen overnight, 1-3 years from now we will be in a world of hurt. For the first time in my life I am shorting 'Murica, all in. God bless indeed.

  Even if what you claim is true, you can go bust by shorting the dollar in that timeframe.

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If any of you are really shorting USD prepare to lose your money. After the economic agenda is passed in 2017, we will return to 3+% GDP growth, rates will rise, bonds will unwind and dollar will rise over the next 4 years. This is low hanging fruit - only need to do 2 things: 1) unwind Obamacare, and 2) Decrease corporate income tax rates to 15% and get rid of global taxation with a tax holiday on repatriation of overseas profits. You don't even have to decrease individual rates. Added bonus if you do.

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user1337 said:   If any of you are really shorting USD prepare to lose your money. After the economic agenda is passed in 2017, we will return to 3+% GDP growth, rates will rise, bonds will unwind and dollar will rise over the next 4 years. This is low hanging fruit - only need to do 2 things: 1) unwind Obamacare, and 2) Decrease corporate income tax rates to 15% and get rid of global taxation with a tax holiday on repatriation of overseas profits. You don't even have to decrease individual rates. Added bonus if you do.
  Don't forget bringing back manufacturing jobs!

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rufflesinc said:   
user1337 said:   If any of you are really shorting USD prepare to lose your money. After the economic agenda is passed in 2017, we will return to 3+% GDP growth, rates will rise, bonds will unwind and dollar will rise over the next 4 years. This is low hanging fruit - only need to do 2 things: 1) unwind Obamacare, and 2) Decrease corporate income tax rates to 15% and get rid of global taxation with a tax holiday on repatriation of overseas profits. You don't even have to decrease individual rates. Added bonus if you do.
  Don't forget bringing back manufacturing jobs!

 If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor!

rated:
Currency speculation is not for the faint of heart or the novice. If you have to ask, no!
/thread.

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11/18/2016: Dollar strongest since 2003; bond selloff resumes: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-idUSKBN13D040

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