I have a coworker who has been making a killing on investment for the past 15 years. All the stocks he held has increased significantly. Most of his stocks went up, only one or two that is stagnant. He said the recommendation report cost him around $700, but he does not tell me where to get them. According to him, some reports even cost $2000. So, I wonder if anyone knows where to buy stock recommendation reports.
CoolKev said: I have a coworker who has been making a killing on investment for the past 15 years. All the stocks he held has increased significantly. Most of his stocks went up, only one or two that is stagnant. He said the recommendation report cost him around $700, but he does not tell me where to get them. According to him, some reports even cost $2000. So, I wonder if anyone knows where to buy stock recommendation reports. Assuming this is not a troll, your co-worker is full of it.
Don't believe everything people say. I know someone who used to tell me he makes at least $5k profit in stocks consistently every month for the past couple of years. Last I asked him he said he stopped investing because when he took a step back and re-calculated everything it turned out that he was only even.
There are a lot out there and it depends on how much money you have to invest. I used to subscribe to Marc Faber's Gloom Boom and Doom report, but most of his recommendations were foreign investments and I don't have enough money where it would be worth it for me to call up my broker and pay a premium on the trade to buy foreign ordinaries. He does run a good news letter tho and it was worth the money (It used to be cheaper) to get his insights.
People like to brag about their winners and have an amnesia when talking to others about the losers. Also - define "killing" - is it better than an index fund?
People may laugh about Mad Money Cramer - but in my opinion, the guy is amazing. He knows so much about the trends and individual stocks that it is amazing. 6 months ago, he would swear by BMY - and I kept wondering why because the PE was so high. The reason was because there was strong hopes on Opdivo and I didn't know at the time. When Opdivo clinical results failed, BMY took a dive. No newsletter could have known this. Even Cramer got blindsided on this.
Why do you think stocks jump up/down so much with earnings? This is all due to "surprise" - you can play lotto with guessing the surprise but you are going to wrong/right half the time. I was researching a stock at TD. I forget which research report it was but they said in the report that they accurately predicted the stock direction only 5 out of 13 times! Wow - I would get out of the business of publishing research report if I have to admit that I don't even have better than 50% chance of predicting the up/down direction.
I would recommend Morningstar stock investor -it costs $99/year - it is a reputed public company with real analysts. You won't make a killing but if you follow the recommendations, you should do a little better than index investing. Don't believe in the newsletters that claim $5/$7 stock that is going to change the world. If you believe and act, you are not investing -just gambling. Better off going to Las Vegas to get more bang for your buck.
If you can pick winners 55% of the time you can get rich, if you can can control weight, exit timing and tax strategy. Much more to winning at the market than just picking stocks that go up. The worst thing that can happen to a new investor is to get a few calls right then think they know how to succeed.
CoolKev said: I have a coworker who has been making a killing on investment for the past 15 years. All the stocks he held has increased significantly. Most of his stocks went up, only one or two that is stagnant. He said the recommendation report cost him around $700, but he does not tell me where to get them. According to him, some reports even cost $2000. So, I wonder if anyone knows where to buy stock recommendation reports.
Don't buy into the hype. There is no investment letter that has been making a "killing" for last 15 years. Certainly there are report that could go upto $2,000 but don't waste your money.
If you want to follow investment return .. google Hubert Financial report - this guy has an elaborate system where he guys financial reports, and tracks their performance - meaning if you had the report, and bought based on the report what your annual return would be. So you don't take anyone's word for it - he calculates actual returns. He analyzes hundreds of news letter. His report cost around $60 for couple of months. Get that, and use that to pick a financial news letter that fits your style/budget etc. Most of them cost around $100-$300 for annual subscription. Many of them offer free trails. Save your money, and go that route.
I picked one same way ... put the link below. You can take a trial, and see if you like it. They averaged around 10% or so return annually, and they rank very high in terms of "risk adjusted return". Meaning the way the ranking is done - it takes into account how volatile/risky the investments are.
kriskos4 said: Your buddy sounds like the guy that goes to Vegas and comes back with 10 or 15k every time. It's easy to remember the wins, the losers we tend to forget about. There are two types of people: losers and liars.
BrianGa said: kriskos4 said: Your buddy sounds like the guy that goes to Vegas and comes back with 10 or 15k every time. It's easy to remember the wins, the losers we tend to forget about. There are two types of people: losers and liars.
You forgot about a the third type, losers and liars.
Have seen these "newsletters" over the years and if you look at their recommendations in retrospect, they are wrong more often than not. A random monkey's picks seem to be as reliable.
When I was doing my MFE, one of my colleagues backtested a bunch of newsletter recommendations and found Motley Fool was the only one to statistically outperform the market after neutralizing for Fama-French+Momentum risk factors, and they got a t-statistic of like 5 over 10 years when ~10 other newsletters were all < 2. Back out the Sharpe Ratio from that t-statistic (by dividing by sqrt(10)) and you get something like 1.5. Not bad.
The Motley Fool is a great service if you can get it at the right price. If you google "Motley Fool Inside Value $159" or "Motley Fool Stock Advisor $159", $53/year for three years is not a terrible deal.
I know we have a bunch of EMH Bogleheads here who will claim there are hidden risk factors or that these guys just got lucky, but I think there's probably a little alpha there. The Gardners know how to identify healthy, high quality businesses. But, like investing, quality at the right price-- don't pay $199/year for it.
JacksonX said: VTSAX FTW Although I strongly support index funds for large caps, mid-caps, and investment grade bonds, I want someone to do some sanity checks on the prices I'm paying for stuff in less liquid markets. I honestly think is a dangerous idea to invest in an index fund that includes small-cap and micro-cap stocks--- or junk bonds.
If you're buying colas, it's ok to pay 75 cents for a 12-oz Pepsi and 80 cents for a 12-oz Coke, but don't pay $24.95 for a can of RC Cola, and don't pay 70 cents for a two-thirds drunk can of Sam's Club Cola.
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