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I'm not a denizen of the FX world . . not at all . . do not pay a lot of attention.  So this trend has to have been ongoing for a while.  Last time I recall noticing, it took like a dollar twenty something to buy a euro.

Things have changed.  Here are your charts:

Euro slide 

You can own a euro right now for less than $1.05!  So is parity in our future for this currency?  There was a time, back fourteen or fifteen years ago, when the euro was only worth eighty some odd cents!  Are we headed all the way back there?

My gut feel is the euro is headed still lower against our American dollar.  Perhaps this is a good time to plan European travel or buy a case of French wine. 

  

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It was 1:1 for most of 2002, or thereabouts. I was there for Oktoberfest and training... (my company probably thought of that the other way around)

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RedWolfe01 said:   It was 1:1 for most of 2002, or thereabouts. I was there for Oktoberfest and training... (my company probably thought of that the other way around)
  I was traveling to Europe a lot in 2008 when it was $1.50-$1.60/Euro. Ouch.

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Awesome. Heading there next week.

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BostonOne said:   
RedWolfe01 said:   It was 1:1 for most of 2002, or thereabouts. I was there for Oktoberfest and training... (my company probably thought of that the other way around)
  I was traveling to Europe a lot in 2008 when it was $1.50-$1.60/Euro. Ouch.

  I was in France in late 2008.  I remember the same.  If you want to save Euros in a U.S. based account, try Zenbanx.  You can keep the account in up to nine different currencies.  When using the debit card, it will withdraw from the same currency the transaction is in, with no added fee.  I've been saving about 25 Euros a week in it. I can't predict where the Euro will be from week to week, but for the next trip I have over-the-pond, I'll have quite a bit saved. 

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To add, I just did a €25 transfer (purchase of euros) on Zenbanx. The €25 cost me today $26.41 or about $1.056 per euro. The current exchange rate I see on Yahoo is about $1.042. You always need to pay a spread. The $0.014 difference is quite good.

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The Euro is doomed to fail, you cannot have a singular monetary policy and 28 different fiscal policies.

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S197 said:   The Euro is doomed to fail, you cannot have a singular monetary policy and 28 different fiscal policies.
I wonder where you get the 28 number from, the European Union has 28 member states (27 if the UK ever leaves).  To be a member of the Eurozone, you must meet a set of convergence criteria, one of which is membership in the EU. Currency, the Eurozone has 18 official members, plus ECB permission in the four European microstates (Andorra, Monaco, San Marino and the Vatican).  

The Euro official is the national currency in one or two non-EU member states (Montenegro, and depending on your view, Kosovo.)  There are a number of other countries with a fixed or floating peg to the Euro (Denmark, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina , huge swaths of Africa, etc) that are inside and outside the EU.

Should we conclude that the USD is destined to fail, since California has a different fiscal policy than Alabama?  

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RadioActive said:   
S197 said:   The Euro is doomed to fail, you cannot have a singular monetary policy and 28 different fiscal policies.
I wonder where you get the 28 number from, the European Union has 28 member states (27 if the UK ever leaves).  To be a member of the Eurozone, you must meet a set of convergence criteria, one of which is membership in the EU. Currency, the Eurozone has 18 official members, plus ECB permission in the four European microstates (Andorra, Monaco, San Marino and the Vatican).  

The Euro official is the national currency in one or two non-EU member states (Montenegro, and depending on your view, Kosovo.)  There are a number of other countries with a fixed or floating peg to the Euro (Denmark, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina , huge swaths of Africa, etc) that are inside and outside the EU.

Should we conclude that the USD is destined to fail, since California has a different fiscal policy than Alabama?  

  
That is not a very apt comparison, no matter how many times it is made.    I don't say it is doomed, but it does take a LOT of shoveling from the rich partners in EU to shore up the economies of the poor ones to make it work.  The US is FAR more homogeneous and all of our STATE governments are formed under the same framework as the federal.  There is a lot more friction in the EU system.  If you have ever been in Germany and/or the UK and then visited Greece, Italy, Spain, ect..  you will find an amazing difference in work ethics and degree of social support.

The current US "Federal System" is far more integrated into the state structure it grew out of.  We had a major WAR going on that focused our economy to encourage us to make it work.  If EU had formed as a survival mechanism versus an economic one it would be much stronger.

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RedWolfe01 said:     
That is not a very apt comparison, no matter how many times it is made.    I don't say it is doomed, but it does take a LOT of shoveling from the rich partners in EU to shore up the economies of the poor ones to make it work.  The US is FAR more homogeneous and all of our STATE governments are formed under the same framework as the federal.  There is a lot more friction in the EU system.  If you have ever been in Germany and/or the UK and then visited Greece, Italy, Spain, ect..  you will find an amazing difference in work ethics and degree of social support.

The current US "Federal System" is far more integrated into the state structure it grew out of.  We had a major WAR going on that focused our economy to encourage us to make it work.  If EU had formed as a survival mechanism versus an economic one it would be much stronger.

  
Disclaimer, I've been living in Germany since 2012.  Yes, there is strife in the EU, especially between the "rich" northern European countries, and the "poor" European countries, however the re-distribution of monies from Brussels to the national governments is akin to the federal redistribution of USD from rich states (California) to the poor (Alabama) states.  Have a look here:

https://wallethub.com/edu/states-most-least-dependent-on-the-fed...

The primary difference between the EU and the US, is that there are no per-say, EU laws, all EU regulations are mandated to be implemented at the national (eg. Slovakia, Italy, Germany) level.  As you see with the refugees, in Germany, Angela Merkel suspended a provision of an EU directive on asylum seekers (the Dublin Regulation) that required refugees to seek asylum in the EU first country that they enter.  The EU had a knee-jerk reaction and tried to require equal re-distribution of the refugees, however most of the Eastern European countries revolted and gave a collective middle finger to non-Christian refugees.

To counter your argument, the EU (and more aptly, the Euro) *is* a survival mechanism motivated by war.  Continental Europe spent the better part of 1000 years with armies tromping over every corner of the continent.  The idea was to intertwine the economies of national governments so going to war would be politically infeasible.  For the most part, that's worked, however the right-national parties are rising fairly quickly, even in traditionally liberal countries like Sweden and Denmark.  Perhaps the idea of a currency union was too quick, currency unions have a long history of failure (see the Austro-Hungarian Krone for a somewhat recent version).  

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Cat, I blame the feline for the mispost!

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RadioActive said:   
RedWolfe01 said:     
That is not a very apt comparison, no matter how many times it is made.    I don't say it is doomed, but it does take a LOT of shoveling from the rich partners in EU to shore up the economies of the poor ones to make it work.  The US is FAR more homogeneous and all of our STATE governments are formed under the same framework as the federal.  There is a lot more friction in the EU system.  If you have ever been in Germany and/or the UK and then visited Greece, Italy, Spain, ect..  you will find an amazing difference in work ethics and degree of social support.

The current US "Federal System" is far more integrated into the state structure it grew out of.  We had a major WAR going on that focused our economy to encourage us to make it work.  If EU had formed as a survival mechanism versus an economic one it would be much stronger.

  
Disclaimer, I've been living in Germany since 2012.  Yes, there is strife in the EU, especially between the "rich" northern European countries, and the "poor" European countries, however the re-distribution of monies from Brussels to the national governments is akin to the federal redistribution of USD from rich states (California) to the poor (Alabama) states.  Have a look here:

https://wallethub.com/edu/states-most-least-dependent-on-the-federal-government/2700/

The primary difference between the EU and the US, is that there are no per-say, EU laws, all EU regulations are mandated to be implemented at the national (eg. Slovakia, Italy, Germany) level.  As you see with the refugees, in Germany, Angela Merkel suspended a provision of an EU directive on asylum seekers (the Dublin Regulation) that required refugees to seek asylum in the EU first country that they enter.  The EU had a knee-jerk reaction and tried to require equal re-distribution of the refugees, however most of the Eastern European countries revolted and gave a collective middle finger to non-Christian refugees.

To counter your argument, the EU (and more aptly, the Euro) *is* a survival mechanism motivated by war.  Continental Europe spent the better part of 1000 years with armies tromping over every corner of the continent.  The idea was to intertwine the economies of national governments so going to war would be politically infeasible.  For the most part, that's worked, however the right-national parties are rising fairly quickly, even in traditionally liberal countries like Sweden and Denmark.  Perhaps the idea of a currency union was too quick, currency unions have a long history of failure (see the Austro-Hungarian Krone for a somewhat recent version).  

  
Don't get me wrong, I think EU has too much invested now to do anything else BUT make it work.  But I don't agree it was motivated by war - with the fall of the last European "Empire" systems the war chances are so low as to be negligible other than Russia.  It was a pure single market play to simplify cross border trade.  (it was a MESS before -- I remember the days of crossing borders)

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Good time to vacation in Europe. Bad time to be holding EUR denominated assets. Not so good for VT.

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The Euroslide continues.

In the last twelve hours (use link in OP) the euro has been down as low as 1.036.

Also, if you look at our stock market, I think foreigners are coming in big time.

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I think it will continue. As the US economy becomes unshackled next year and we return to normal+alpha growth, more money will continue to flow into the US, strengthening the USD and weakening global currencies against it. Fed will use this opportunity to unwind their balance sheet and raise interest rates which will help shift some of the money going into the US stock market into bonds.

Cliffs:
1) Long USD
2) Short bonds
3) Long US stocks

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Swim cautiously in these waters.  When EUR/USD parity is being talked about as a given in the news media, the heavy hitters show up and the short squeeze is on.  The results are brutal.  Also remember that the Euro at these levels becomes a very political discussion, meaning that the vol could be hard to stomach.

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Hmmmm.  Euro does seem to be recovering ever so slightly at this time, with 1.036 having been the low point.

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Awesome. Just as a heads up, MSRPs don't get updated that often. So if you're buying a product that's sold in a lot of different countries, and there's a lot of control over dealer pricing, it might be cheaper to buy from Europe and ship to the US if it's a big ticket item.

I paid $400 for a $600 Shoei X-12 motorcycle helmet by buying from Germany and paying Euros.  Shoei never allows their products to go on sale.

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Just as a heads up, President-elect Trump is now talking down our American dollar:

Linky #1 

Linky #2 

OK, I understand jobs for Americans are his principal concern.  But this is not great if you are planning travel.

Best to convert to foreign currencies now for use later this year?  I dunno.

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