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rated:
Im playing around with some pricing scenarios to determine if buying "phone insurance" is a worthwhile purchase.  For a typical iPhone 7, AppleCare+ costs $129 for two years of coverage at $99 deductible for up to 2 "total replacments" and $29 for up to 2 "glass replacments".

Based upon your usage, how likely would you expect to have a total replacement in 2 years?

0 times
1 time
2 times

These should be percentages that add up to 1

Based upon your usage, how likely would you expect to have a glass replacement in 2 years?

0 times
1 times
2 times.

Like before, these should add up to 1

After I get about 10 responses, I'll take some averages and share my analysis.

 

Member Summary
Most Recent Posts
I've had an iphone for 5 years. 2 years with 1, going on year 3 with the other. My wife has as well.
I've broken 2 screen... (more)

Chrisk327 (Feb. 10, 2017 @ 9:21a) |

I hate these warranty threads.

Every warranty is a bad deal for the average consumer - the warranty provider prices thei... (more)

vnuts21 (Feb. 10, 2017 @ 10:42a) |

Agreed. There's another reason to buy the warranty - if you value peace of mind (and maybe convenience) a lot, it might ... (more)

BostonOne (Feb. 10, 2017 @ 12:37p) |

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rated:
Let me save you some time on the calculation.

129 + (n * 99) + (y * 29) = more than it's worth.

rated:
Find a credit card that covers your phone. Buy phone with that card. Pocket the $129 and save it for your next phone.

rated:
Stubtify said:   Find a credit card that covers your phone. Buy phone with that card. Pocket the $129 and save it for your next phone.

This and buy a decent protective case. I drop my phone all the time but only from my hand to the floor and a $10-25 case is worth the investment several times over for me.

rated:
Yes, a good case is a good idea too.

Also, not buying a $700+ phone is a good idea as well.

rated:
Buy a used note 5 off eBay... should cost you around $250 or the price of a warranty + deductible for the overpriced phone.

rated:
I used to not buy AppleCare, but have for my last 2 iPhones. Both times I have had a hardware failure in year 2 and Apple replaced the phones without question. Agree, that the average person does not come out ahead, but some do.

rated:
BostonOne said:   I used to not buy AppleCare, but have for my last 2 iPhones. Both times I have had a hardware failure in year 2 and Apple replaced the phones without question. Agree, that the average person does not come out ahead, but some do.
  But, Apple "just "works ...

rated:
BostonOne said:   I used to not buy AppleCare, but have for my last 2 iPhones. Both times I have had a hardware failure in year 2 and Apple replaced the phones without question. Agree, that the average person does not come out ahead, but some do.
  If you're going to keep your phone for 2+ years, it's worth it. However, I have a bad habit of using a phone for a few months and selling it to get the next best thing (hey, it's better than a heroin addiction). It's a small hobby of mine.

rated:
What credit card will provide two years of insurance?

rated:
I just paid for a replacement screen and did some number crunching on this. I would say that a broken screen happens once every 1.5 years. Without AppleCare, it's $160 out-the-door to replace the screen on an iPhone 6S Plus. If you take care of your device, I don't really see it as being necessary or cost-effective. Eventually you get to the point of where it's cheaper to get a new phone when yours breaks and to simply sell the old broken phone for parts/repair on CL/eBay.

rated:
some info on CC's with cell phone protection: http://www.frugaltravelguy.com/2016/12/credit-cards-that-offer-c...

rated:
So my survey results came in:

0,1,2 phone replacements
0.75
0.2
0.05

0,1,2 screen replacements
0.2
0.7
0.05

And the expected value are:

182 for AppleCare
132 for no insurance and screen repairs done by some local geek
193 for no insurance and screen repairs done by Apple

The obvious choice is to self insure, and let your local kid fix your screen. I suspect people gave me "high" values for probability of an accident, as most people are risk adverse. Even with these numbers, AppleCare isn't worth it unless you MUST have your screen repaired by Apple. Otherwise in the long run the AppleCare insurance costs you $50 more than self insuring.

rated:
Your numbers are way off. I paid Apple $129 for a screen replacement on my iPhone 7. (Then American Express reimbursed me). And I still don't use a case or buy the warranty.

rated:
Stubtify said:   some info on CC's with cell phone protection: http://www.frugaltravelguy.com/2016/12/credit-cards-that-offer-c...
  
The Ink Preferred as a $100 deductible, the WF Propel AMEX has a $25 deductible and the Citi Forward isn't really considered as new applicants can't get it.  
(Other AMEX cards just offer purchase protection for 3 months, which isn't really useful if you are holding a phone for at least 2 years).

Both the Chase Ink Preferred and WF Propel are good cards since you didn't have to purchase the phone with the card, just pay monthly cell phone bill.

I'd also say, if you think you will feel better getting Applecare, the know at least its cheaper than paying your mobile carrier insurance prices.




 

rated:
fasttimes said:   What credit card will provide two years of insurance?
  Amex extends the original manufacturer warranty by one year, so any Amex.

rated:
I'm not sure the point of this thread. Apple and their insurer partners have a much larger data set than you and aren't going to price the coverage at a loss, on average.

i think the edge would be in knowing your own usage and buy the insurance when you're likely to need it. They don't charge more for clumsy people, so if you tend to get drunk and drop your phone a lot, then.Applecare is a good deal.

Where you get really screwed is if the fingerprint scanner gets damaged. Because of the way it's uniquely locked to the hardware it's a total loss and can't be repaired by third-party shops. Unfortunately I learned this one first hand,

rated:
I go without a case, and I use AppleCare+. I seem to average 1 replacement every 11 months. When my screen cracks, I have always ended up with a new phone (with a new battery), so my battery life stays good. Still, the coverage is expensive.

rated:
supersnoop00 said:   Your numbers are way off. I paid Apple $129 for a screen replacement on my iPhone 7. (Then American Express reimbursed me). And I still don't use a case or buy the warranty.
  
$29 is the deductible for a screen repair.  $129 is the standard price.  How long after you purchased your phone did you crack/file a claim?

rated:
DTASFAB said:   
fasttimes said:   What credit card will provide two years of insurance?
  Amex extends the original manufacturer warranty by one year, so any Amex.

  
OEM warranties typically don't cover accidents.  From some random guy on Reddit

"90 Days accidental damage and theft coverage, then it extends your manufacturers warranty by one year."
 

rated:
fearless62 said:   I go without a case, and I use AppleCare+. I seem to average 1 replacement every 11 months. When my screen cracks, I have always ended up with a new phone (with a new battery), so my battery life stays good. Still, the coverage is expensive.

So you pay the deductible for a new phone every crack?  That's horribly wasteful considering your battery will easily last two years.  And if it doesn't, Apple will replace it in the first year and Amex probably extends the 1 year OEM for the battery for an additional year.

ETA: You can even buy SquareTrade and get the replacement through Apple if you convince them it's not repairable and get reimbursed.  Plus you have more than 2 claims. 

rated:
I have been rather apprehensive about buying various protection plans as they haven't seemed worth it. My wife is immediately drawn to them. Through our carrier, the old plan was per device and was $10/month with a $50 deductible and was replaced with a refurbished phone that renewed a 2-year contract. I sold her that if we insured every phone, I could have taken that money and bought a new phone outright twice a month (5 phones on the plan). They now have a new group plan that has a lower deductible, replaces with new, doesn't renew the contract, and works with your entire plan (I now have a couple of iPad Pros on the plan), it is only $30/mo. Now, I would still be apprehensive, but my wife is horrible with her phone... we got a case and one of those glass protectors... the thick ones. She destroyed the screen protector within two weeks... Phone got a "superficial" crack in a corner of its glass. Things happen sometimes. I have the insurance now, but if I had fewer devices or it was not as good of a plan, I wouldn't do it.

EDIT: Oh, and this plan covers for loss and theft, whereas AppleCare doesn't.

rated:
fasttimes said:   supersnoop00 said:   Your numbers are way off. I paid Apple $129 for a screen replacement on my iPhone 7. (Then American Express reimbursed me). And I still don't use a case or buy the warranty.
  
$29 is the deductible for a screen repair.  $129 is the standard price.  How long after you purchased your phone did you crack/file a claim?

To be clear, I did not purchase any insurance. No AppleCare or AppleCare+.

I cracked my screen within one month of purchasing the iPhone 7. I took it to The Apple Store for repair. They charged me $129 to replace the screen.

Hence, if you only crack your screen once in two years, you're better off not buying AppleCare. If you crack your screen twice, you're $70 ahead.

Insurance is all about mitigating risk. In my opinion, the risk of paying up front and not using it is greater than the risk of cracking your screen twice.

rated:
I've had an iphone for 5 years. 2 years with 1, going on year 3 with the other. My wife has as well.
I've broken 2 screens
I haven't had any other issues.
She hasn't broken either phone or had issues.

I had applecare+ on my first phone and my wife's first phone At the time the screen replacement was close to $200 and I do't remember the deductible. Either or,we came out behind slightly by only having 1 incident.

2nd round of phones we didn't buy the applecare+, 1 screen incident for $100, so far I'm ahead. At the time of purchase applecare+ deductible was like $75, so it wouldn't have saved much on the $100 replacement.

As other pointed out. Apple *should be pricing this so it works out for them financially, however still has to be cheap enough to entice people to buy it.

However, you have a much better view as to your personal carelessness. So it definitely could work out to your advantage, or not.  Also fwiw, I find that the phone screen breaks at the weirdest times. Basically things that I think should break it, don't. The 2 times I broke my screen were so benign that I was shocked that it broke at all.

Based upon current pricing, it seems like a decent deal if you expect to break your screen once in 2 years, you're only out $29 compared to actual cost to fix, and you have the other coverage.

you could look into credit card coverage, but I haven't found it in my credit card stash that covers accident damage for a long period of time.

rated:
I hate these warranty threads.

Every warranty is a bad deal for the average consumer - the warranty provider prices their warranties to make money off of them. They're not selling them as a favor to the consumer. Meaning, in the long run - every consumer will lose money on the warranty purchase.

If you think you're more likely to use warranty than the average consumer, buy the warranty. If not, don't. It's not rocket science, and doesn't need a poll or a thread for every single type of consumer warranty.

rated:
vnuts21 said:   I hate these warranty threads.

Every warranty is a bad deal for the average consumer - the warranty provider prices their warranties to make money off of them. They're not selling them as a favor to the consumer. Meaning, in the long run - every consumer will lose money on the warranty purchase.

If you think you're more likely to use warranty than the average consumer, buy the warranty. If not, don't. It's not rocket science, and doesn't need a poll or a thread for every single type of consumer warranty.

  Agreed. There's another reason to buy the warranty - if you value peace of mind (and maybe convenience) a lot, it might make sense for you to limit your downside if something happens to your phone.

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