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Heads up on this monthly jobs report wrinkle

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If you were watching for the February jobs report release last Friday, you waited in vain.  The release did not happen.  There was a calendar anomaly in February which has resulted in delay of this report release until this coming Friday, March tenth.   So keep a weather eye at week's end.

Why important?

In my view at least, this employment report (if very bad) is one of few things which might derail the Fed interest rate hike I'm looking for following next week's FOMC meeting.  Course if the stock market falls several hundred points between now and then, that also might deep six an interest rate increase as well. 

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Why do you say that the stock market changes affect interest rates? It doesn't make sense, but I never paid attention to it before.

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scripta said:   Why do you say that the stock market changes affect interest rates? It doesn't make sense, but I never paid attention to it before.
  
Well, my opinion might be out of date . . . or not . . . I'm not certain.  But following the 2008 financial crisis, for quite a few years thereafter, the Fed kept (short) interest rates very low in order (among other things) to help support the stock market.  Today that line of thinking might be fading.  Today the stock market shows evidence of rising on its own, without (i.e., not thanks to) support from the Fed.  It is only MHO, but I don't think the recent stock market runup is owing to Fed activity.  But I do believe Fed action to cut interest rates following the 2008 crisis helped to support the stock market back then.

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I'm pretty sure you've got it all wrong. The 2008 crisis seized up credit, which threatened to slow down business activity. It also popped the RE bubble, which sent RE prices tanking. The Fed lowered rates (also nationalized the mortgage backers and did a few rounds of QE) to stave off deflation, stimulate lending (cheap/free money!), and slow down and then reinflate RE. The stock market is a symptom of all this, not a cause. The Fed isn't there to protect stock market investors per say, it's there to control the monetary system to smooth out or prevent the boom and bust cycles and keep the economy flowing smoothly (by "maximizing employment, stabilizing prices, and moderating long-term interest rates").

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