Housing prices prediction

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Do you think home prices will go up more or go downward by 2019?

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Yes

What does your magic 8 ball say? That'll be the expert!

a little up.  then down.  then up.  then down.  then maybe up.  then down but not necessarily in that order

pjws3 said:   a little up.  then down.  then up.  then down.  then maybe up.  then down but not necessarily in that order
  that's what she said

Up, down, sideways, does it really matter?

deals4travel said:   Yes
  No

Some will go up, some will go down, some will stay relatively flat.

alamo11 said:   Up, down, sideways, does it really matter?
  Only in bed

we will all die!!!!!!!!!

All housing is local. Two cities in the same state can have drastic differences in home prices, or two neighborhoods in the same city.

Any predictions in future prices, and any other public information is priced into the home(efficient market hypothesis).

Buying a home is a poor investment for a number of different reasons. These can be offset by the money you are saving on rent, particularly if you are living in the same place for 10+ years, or by rental income if you are renting it out. You have poor liquidity, it takes months to sell a home. In a period of just a few years that can be large swings in the price. The transaction costs are very high. Between the closing costs when you buy, closing costs when you sell, and realtors commission you are spending 10% of the price of the home to buy and sell. Homes are a depreciating asset. Generally the land appreciates over a long period of time, and the home depreciates. It requires hundreds of dollars a month in maintenance to maintain its value. The maintenance and depreciation are of less importance over a short term of just a year or two, but you could still be hit with a large expense like replacing the roof, or a burst pipe. You have a lot of risk because of a lack of diversity. You are buying one home, if anything happens to that one home your "investment" is tanked. Generally you will work in the same area as your home, and there are a lot of things that could cause you to lose your job or take a paycut, that would also affect the price of the home. On top of that homes are usually bought with a mortgage, so you have leveraged your money to buy it. For instance if you buy a $100k home with 3.5% down through an FHA loan and the home price goes down 10% when you want to sell, and you factor in closing costs you lose your $3500 downpayment and have to come to closing with another $17,000 just to sell the home. That is a negative 400%+ return on the investment.

deals4travel said:   Yes
  I strongly disagree.  The answer is obviously NO, but only for certain markets, as was pointed out above.  

What's the purpose this question?  We like tree branch falling and car accidents questions much better than talking about predicting housing markets two years down the road.

Remember every location is the same.

I was looking at a house in a bad neighborhood with a tree growing in the middle of the living room.
I don't think the value could go any lower, but I doubt it's going to go up anytime soon.

Doesn't matter.

If it goes up, I sell.

If it goes down, I buy.

They'll go up for a while, until the interest rates rising and the clusterfuck of Trump's policies coming into effect bring them down.

Warren Buffett, during an appearance on 'On Money' (formally 'The Wall Street Journal Report'), on the one hand said refinancing one's home mortgage at historically low interest rates was a deal of a lifetime, but on the other hand said he's selling his real estate holdings (other than his home).

ThomasPaine said:   I was looking at a house in a bad neighborhood with a tree growing in the middle of the living room.

 

Here in northern California you pay extra for that.  

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