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michigan lottery posts suddenly deleted by doctor of credit

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I just noticed something fishy and wondering what it means. Doctor of Credit had a recurrent series on Michigan lottery deals, taking advantage of promos which would increase chances to play and allow the player to "lose" to the house at a controlled rate (say 80%), while still making a handsome weekly profit. Suddenly, all of the posts and comments except for just a few were taken down from the blog. Does anyone know about this? There might be a few explanations including some a little fantastic that I can imagine. I was wondering if anyone noticed and might have an idea of what happened.

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Did you use a MI zip code?  haha  Thats about all you had to do in 2002.  Oh, I remember the online casino craze.  It wa... (more)

Mikul (Jun. 07, 2017 @ 6:18p) |

Do they tax winnings when they payout or send you a w?

susrivas (Jun. 12, 2017 @ 9:48a) |

Michigan State Lottery sends out W-2G for any prize over $600.
They'll withhold if you want them to, I'm not sure if they... (more)

taxmantoo (Jun. 12, 2017 @ 10:09a) |

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Available to out of state players?

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That's pretty funny. It seems the game itself had reasonable odds for a government lottery, though at the generous end of those. But the signup bonus was too high/required plays too low to give the lottery an edge for profit against a smart player. And presumably there were no effective controls to limit bonuses per player.

To me, what's stupider than not arranging the required bets to ensure at least break-even is investing big money in customer acquisition and then apparently not tracking the quality of those specific customers. Maybe the overwhelming majority were typical lottery players and spent the bonus on games with worse odds and just kept adding in their own money. That's what the outraged congressman's issue seems to always have been - the lottery is exploitive. As long as it stays that way, the signup promotion would be successful. I'm not at all a gambler, so generally wouldn't give a "lottery system" any attention, but the signup bonus angle seems pretty simple and reliable to profit from.

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That's silly. It's not a vulnerability, it is a sign-up bonus and there is a way to cash out with around $60 of earnings on top of your $200 deposit by playing 300 hands of a specific game. If the same person can do this repeatedly, then that is what I would call a vulnerability, otherwise most betting/casino sign-up bonuses work like that - i.e. you can cash out part of the bonus if you stop playing at the optimal point, but the money going to people who do that are a fraction of the money lost by the average player. To make it clear, you don't actually beat the odds in the game, that $60 of earnings comes after losing $40 of a $200 deposit + $100 bonus, but at that point you can stop playing without losing more and cash out. Even if as many as half the people signing up do that strategy, the other half losing their $200 more than makes up for that.
It's a bit like saying the sign-up bonus of a CC is a "vulnerability"...

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Sounds like online casino bonus hunting.

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Their (the state lotto) response is funny
Despite what we wrote above regarding the statistical probabilities, the lottery's spokesperson said it's not true and hinted no changes would be made."It is inaccurate to say that playing Fuzzball Keno or any lottery game in a certain manner guarantees gains for players,"
Talk about being oblivious.  Of course there's nothing wrong with the game itself.  The "guarantee" comes from the sign up bonus, giving a player more house money than they're going to lose before cashing out.  

I'd think if they did understand what's possible and just don't care, their statement would've been more along the lines of "We are happy with the gambling dollars brought in by our sign up bonus offers, even when some players do win often enough to pocket some of that bonus money."

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How long does it take to play 300 rounds of keno?

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vickh said:   Available to out of state players?


Their lottery website says you must be physically located in Michigan to play..

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This was all the rage in the early 2000s in the online gambling days.

I made tens of thousands of dollars with zero risk. It was the wild west and most of them would find a way to not pay you but a few did and it was glorious.

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Oh so glorious. Changed my life

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They also had other match play bonuses with minimal rollover requirements, which were the "weekly" ones referred to. The rollover previously was 2:1 which is laughable but many of the promos now require new money, as opposed to reusing already deposited/won funds, and which was the loophole that you could drive a truck through. The regular bonus still exists and is similar to any bonus offered by an online casino. 

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TheDiggler said:   Wasn't aware of the thread (and don't live in MI) but found this link via a quick Google search:
http://www.wzzm13.com/news/investigations/13-on-your-side/watchdog/website-showing-how-to-beat-lottery-taken-down-before-13-watchdog-investigation/442886596 

Looks like it was (and may still be) available on-line:
http://www.wzzm13.com/news/investigations/13-on-your-side/watchdog/heres-how-we-won-167-in-free-money-from-the-michigan-lottery/442624276

  Does not surprise me that the lady in the video did not believe this......

Most people are stupid. The last year could tell you that.

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jerosen said:   
vickh said:   Available to out of state players?


Their lottery website says you must be physically located in Michigan to play..

  How verified?  IP address?
Also:  what's the mechanism for depositing/withdrawing funds? Bank ACH?
 

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tuphat said:   jerosen said:   
vickh said:   Available to out of state players?


Their lottery website says you must be physically located in Michigan to play..

  How verified?  IP address?
Also:  what's the mechanism for depositing/withdrawing funds? Bank ACH?
 


I wouldn't be surprised if people have found ways to defraud the state of Michigan.

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Yeah. In the gogo years of online casinos, it was a grey area. Domestically, now, they'll just call the FBI on you.

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It's probably a federal felony of some sort.

Definitely not worth the risk for making $60 off a lottery promo.

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Ip tracking and geolocation has come a long way since 2002.

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Hmm. No reason to think there's a scam here. I thought it was well-known that the Michigan state lottery sometimes ran games with a positive expected value. See e.g. http://www.businessinsider.com/a-retiree-from-rural-michigan-tel... (both MI and MA have operated lotteries which are positive EV if you buy tickets at the right times in the game's cycle) or http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-how-an-mit-senior-a-michiga... .

The MA version of one of these lotteries produced an estimated 20% APY.

I assume that if the current MI lottery isn't being exploited to the hilt even with publicity, it is generating a more modest or less predictable ROI for participants. (Edit: sounds like it's about $60/week? Yeah that's a nice ROI but capped a little low; a typical state lottery syndicate identifies an eligible program then aims to earn a few million dollars at near-zero risk per year.)

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superdrew said:   How long does it take to play 300 rounds of keno?
  Seeking the same info .... seems offer is open.

What are the rules on caching out? Say you win $50 so have $250 balance -- when can you cash out and what ways to cash  out?

Did not get full info from the FAQs

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TravelerMSY said:   Oh so glorious. Changed my life
  Very intriguing, feel like sharing the full story?

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akbrush said:   
TravelerMSY said:   Oh so glorious. Changed my life
  Very intriguing, feel like sharing the full story?

  I did this too.  There was a TON of money to be made when online poker & online casinos exploded (before they were clamped down by the UIGEA).  Online casinos would give you matching deposit bonuses, and would require very little play through to cash out the deposit bonuses.  There were a ton of these casinos, new ones would pop up ever day, and it was easy to make thousands upon thousands of dollars doing it.  Since the online casino games had a known house edge, if you played perfect strategy at a game like blackjack, and knew for example that the house edge was 2 percent, then you could calculate exactly how much money, on average, you would lose playing the requirements for cashing out.  So long as that amount was less than the bonus they were giving you, then it was, in the long run, a money making proposition for the player.  Over time the online casinos wised up and started making harsher and more difficult requirements for cashing out bonuses that eventually made these deals not worth it.  There was also the occasional risk of not getting paid, but in my experience, most of them paid.

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Apparently they never heard of Bob Stupak and the old crew from Cheapovegas.

http://www.bigempire.com/vegas/bobstupak.html

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Quit my job at a television network in 2002 to Chase online casino bonuses full time. It was the right combination of timing, naive online casino managers and the ability to scale. Did very well at that until 2006 when Bush 43 put me out of business. I was the least successful of my group of colleagues and made well over a million dollars.

Most of the deals were grinding out a couple hundred bucks at a time, but there were some stupidly good promos. A notable one was before I quit my job, CasIno On Net did a promo in which zero and seven in roulette paid 70:1 instead of the usual 35:1 for two hours. ~90% edge. $100 max on each number. A group of seven of us made $350,000 on the play. I quit my job shortly after that.

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Can people from other states play this to stick it to the state up north?

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TravelerMSY said:   Ip tracking and geolocation has come a long way since 2002.
  Did you use a MI zip code?  haha  Thats about all you had to do in 2002.  Oh, I remember the online casino craze.  It was the wild wild west of the Internet. 

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Do they tax winnings when they payout or send you a w?

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Michigan State Lottery sends out W-2G for any prize over $600.
They'll withhold if you want them to, I'm not sure if they insist on withholding at high levels (like Powerball).

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