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Investment: Is Tesla the new Apple?

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Tesla shares (TSLA) has been on the rise ever since Elon Musk has confirmed that Model 3 will be released in July.  Many people have betting against Tesla and have lost money. They don't see Tesla as a technology company and makes a comparison with Ford valuation.  Just like Apple disrupted the handset market, Tesla is doing the same with EV market.  Apple has become a giant and Samsung is gradually catching up. Tesla on the other hand is the frontier of EV and autonomous driving. Competitors are 2 to 3 years from catching up to today's Tesla technology. In addition to EV market, Tesla has a potential to take away Uber's business when it's AutoPilot software can allow total autonomous driving (probably will happen in next 2 years). Although the current hype has pushed TSLA to very high valuation, I still see TSLA hitting another 52 week high within next 2 months and many more if Model 3 becomes a super hit like when the first version iPhone came out. I've recently sold 90% of my AAPL holding around $155/sh to add more TSLA shares before Model 3 comes out in July.  Good or bad strategy?

Moderator Comment: Thank you for participating in the forums. However, this topic has been covered in a recent post Here. — Jun. 11, 2017 @ 8:39pm
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You are assuming Tesla's profit is going to be same as other ICE auto manufacturers. If you can't see Tesla as more than... (more)

docjoo (Aug. 22, 2017 @ 6:21p) |

"Now with Apple out, Tesla is in a good position because it will be hard for it to be outdone by anyone in the space,"

ht... (more)

docjoo (Aug. 31, 2017 @ 5:34p) |

Looks like Tesla is ahead on it's production goal. August Target was 100 Model 3 cars.

https://thelastdriverlicenseholde... (more)

docjoo (Sep. 02, 2017 @ 2:14p) |

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Cool blog post.

I suggest you start here: www.wordpress.com

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Elon Musk is no Steve Jobs.

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+1 - Musk is no Jobs. He is the ultimate vaporware guy that spouts off about how he's smarter than everyone else and has little tangible evidence to back it up. It is one thing to sell a specialty car in the $70,000 Model S, it is quite another to build a mass market $30K Model 3. Tesla's reliability in those initial Model S's was terrible but they made up for it by offering great customer service and made it right because they were selling such an expensive car to a small group of people. They won't be able to do that with the Model 3.

In re - self-driving cars... the automakers employ some of the worst software developers. One study reported that somewhere around two-thirds of drivers have the lane departure warning system turned off because it alerts incorrectly all the time. Working as a software engineer myself for one of the big tech companies, I can hardly believe that the quality will be where it needs to be within the next, say, ten years to safely transport people. It is not pretty to watch how the sausage is made.

Tech companies now just slap their code against a wall, push it out to users, and watch telemetry to see if the quality is where it needs to be. How often are major bugs introduced to Facebook, iPhones, etc? Too often. Similarly I wouldn't set foot in a self-driving car until the platform matures.

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1. I don't think we'll be riding around in robocars in two years. In fact, I'd bet money on it.

2. Tesla doesn't have the technical advantages that Apple and Google have in the phone market. Last I knew, the Spark EV had the most efficient motor/transmission on the market, and now the Bolt is competing head to head with Tesla in battery size. And I believe all the major US, German and Japanese carmakers are still ahead of Tesla in overall fit and finish.
If Chevy wants to make a seriously fast Bolt SS to compete with Tesla's Ludicrous Mode, then all Tesla has left is name/status and their proprietary charging network. And 10 years from now, either electrics will be a footnote in history or there will be non-Tesla DC charge stations everywhere.

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sullim4 said:   +1 - Musk is no Jobs. He is the ultimate vaporware guy that spouts off about how he's smarter than everyone else and has 
 

  Spacex is vaporware?  Lol comparing iproducts to rockets doesn't take a rocket scientist to..... Oh....

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TSLA has shit fundamentals compared to AAPL. Until it improves, it's not a good "investment". It's a great gamble though.

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Thank you OP for posting about one of the most polarizing stocks in existence.

I believe everyone, that the stock will either go through the roof, or drop to zero in the next 5 years.
I think the comparisons between Jobs and Musk are flattering; Musk is an engineer, and should be compared to Jobs+Woz.

Tesla has already:
- Succeeded in building modern electric car platform(s) that have prompted automakers to compete.
- Already built the infrastructure to go from one end of the country to another without gas stations.
- Already built the largest battery manufacturing (w/ Panasonic) to push down the price of cars, and any other electronic device out there
- Completely bypassed the traditional supply chain, to make their own stamping/glass
- Built fast cars that are some of the safest on the road.

I can't tell you whether the price of TSLA will be $0 or $5000 in a few years, but it will be certain to be one of them.
RussellJohnson said:   
  
Jobs said the same thing about Apple after he came back to the helm after being fired.

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I think solar and particularly batteries for energy storage will be the largest part of Tesla in the future.

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docjoo said:   Tesla on the other hand is the frontier of ... autonomous driving and competitors are 2 to 3 years from catching up to today's Tesla technology.
  
wat

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sullim4 said:   +1 - Musk is no Jobs. He is the ultimate vaporware guy that spouts off about how he's smarter than everyone else and has little tangible evidence to back it up.
  Wait, what? You compare the guy who is supplying the ISS at a tiny fraction of the cost of competitors, to the guy who was selling design and call the former "vaporware guy"??? Wow. It is one thing to compare Tesla to Apple investment-wise, but the Musk vs Jobs thing is not even a comparison...

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The #1 reason "self-driving" cars will never be mainstreamed is simply because the vast majority of people actually enjoy driving., especially outside of major cities. I would never buy such a car.  Next up is the technology will likely never be 100% foolproof, even aircraft & ocean liners that have vast open space still need to be piloted despite having sophisticated autopilot, etc.

As for Tesla's vehicles, they released all their patent claims so any of the big players can simply duplicate their technology and incorporate it under their own brand, but the market simply isn't there which is why you don;t see mass production of any of these vehicles because if there was every major manufacturer would be pumping them out like hotcakes.

Their stock is over-hyped...sure the cars are cool but their long term viability, other than a niche market looks rather dim.

 

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The success of the Model 3 is priced in. Assuming it's not a flawless roll out (it won't be), expect a hit to the stock price. With tech products most issues can be fixed with a software patch or update. Meanwhile problems with cars can't be fixed the same way and can involve costly recalls.

Also 100% of Teslas delivered sales have been in the high end market. A mass market vehicle is a different animal, especially when their $7500 credit runs out.

I like what Tesla is doing and like seeing EV development (I own a Volt). However, they are far from a sure thing as an investment.

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megatard said:   Elon Musk is no Steve Jobs.

Never said Elon Musk was Steve Jobs. The post is about discussing TSLA as an investment. Just like AAPL did well during the early years, I stated TSLA stock may perform similar.

Both Steve Jobs and Elon Musk deserve to be recognize for producing great products in their industry. So let's not make it Steve Jobs vs Elon Musk.

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This may be a silly question. Has anyone actually driven or own Tesla car?

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RussellJohnson said:   TSLA has shit fundamentals compared to AAPL. Until it improves, it's not a good "investment". It's a great gamble though.
  I guess you haven't driven Model S or X. 

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taxmantoo said:   1. I don't think we'll be riding around in robocars in two years. In fact, I'd bet money on it.

2. Tesla doesn't have the technical advantages that Apple and Google have in the phone market. Last I knew, the Spark EV had the most efficient motor/transmission on the market, and now the Bolt is competing head to head with Tesla in battery size. And I believe all the major US, German and Japanese carmakers are still ahead of Tesla in overall fit and finish.
If Chevy wants to make a seriously fast Bolt SS to compete with Tesla's Ludicrous Mode, then all Tesla has left is name/status and their proprietary charging network. And 10 years from now, either electrics will be a footnote in history or there will be non-Tesla DC charge stations everywhere.
 

1)  https://youtu.be/VG68SKoG7vE



2) http://www.plugincars.com/why-238-mile-chevy-bolt-not-selling-ho...

Chevy Bolt has sold only around 6,000 units.Tesla has more 400k pre-orders. I don't see bright future for Bolt.

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Why are you posting this here and not in the stock thread?

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I only saw 5 forum options. Finance forum is the one that seem to be related to this topic. Is there a forum specifically for Investing?

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Has anyone put $1,000 deposit for Model 3?

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Autopilot: They should be sued for deceptive advertising. This is not autopilot... they even tell you so. I actually enjoy driving, so why I would sit in the car in perpetual fear that I may have to grab the steering wheel with 0.5sec warning?

Build Quality: Model X has had problems with the cheap leather becoming chafed and worn at 2-3k miles. The Model X also has problems with the doors not sitting in-line and flush.

Repairs: Don't get into an accident, waiting for an "authorized" repair shop to take a look at your car could take over a month.

Style: Ugly. The Model X is probably one of the ugliest SUVs on the road.

Price: I was looking at the Model X and the build I wanted was around $120k. So I bought a comparable Porsche instead... looks 10x as great... drives like a dream and even sounds great. With the money I saved I could hire a full-time driver.

CEO: Personally cancelled a journalist's pre-order because he complained about the wait and the food at at a Tesla press event. A petty, Trumpian human being.  Also, if the tech kills you in a car accident, you can expect the CEO to attack you publicly while your family is still grieving.

Customer Relations: Draconian arbitration agreement?  Screw you.

Competition: Audi is coming out with their first premium e-tron model in 2018 and I assume the build quality will be flawless due to the high-profile nature of the launch. Now that the luxury auto manufacturers are starting to catch up... better quality and reliability for a lot less money... I wouldn't consider this stock as a long-term hold. But then again I have never put in an order to purchase one single stock ever, and I never will.

Fanboys: Are strong.  Commence extensive-quote reply now.

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Likely worth a gamble if you can afford the possibility of a loss.

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docjoo said:   
Chevy Bolt has sold only around 6,000 units.Tesla has more 400k pre-orders. I don't see bright future for Bolt.
 

  "A bird in hand is worth 2 in bush". Tesla is promising a dream. Chevy Bolt is reality now.

   Having said that there is no Cache in claiming you are driving a Chevy Bolt. That brand isn't synonymous with Electric Car.
   Tesla has to deliver as promised other those pre-orders will disappear. I do hope he succeeds.

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TSLA is a scam. Jmho.

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Crazytree said:   Autopilot: They should be sued for deceptive advertising. This is not autopilot... they even tell you so. I actually enjoy driving, so why I would sit in the car in perpetual fear that I may have to grab the steering wheel with 0.5sec warning?

Build Quality: Model X has had problems with the cheap leather becoming chafed and worn at 2-3k miles. The Model X also has problems with the doors not sitting in-line and flush.

Repairs: Don't get into an accident, waiting for an "authorized" repair shop to take a look at your car could take over a month.

Style: Ugly. The Model X is probably one of the ugliest SUVs on the road.

Price: I was looking at the Model X and the build I wanted was around $120k. So I bought a comparable Porsche instead... looks 10x as great... drives like a dream and even sounds great. With the money I saved I could hire a full-time driver.

CEO: Personally cancelled a journalist's pre-order because he complained about the wait and the food at at a Tesla press event. A petty, Trumpian human being.  Also, if the tech kills you in a car accident, you can expect the CEO to attack you publicly while your family is still grieving.

Customer Relations: Draconian arbitration agreement?  Screw you.

Competition: Audi is coming out with their first premium e-tron model in 2018 and I assume the build quality will be flawless due to the high-profile nature of the launch. Now that the luxury auto manufacturers are starting to catch up... better quality and reliability for a lot less money... I wouldn't consider this stock as a long-term hold. But then again I have never put in an order to purchase one single stock ever, and I never will.

Fanboys: Are strong.  Commence extensive-quote reply now.


I hate driving and I prefer to sleep on my commute. Also there is no parking and you cant beat being dropped off at work and picked up with the push of a button.

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I'd gamble with TSLA if it dips below $200 and still has such a cult following.

One thing TSLA has that the other automakers don't? Charging network. Eventually, supercharging will not be free.

I think this is a topic worth discussing though.

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javaman2003 said:   
docjoo said:   
Chevy Bolt has sold only around 6,000 units.Tesla has more 400k pre-orders. I don't see bright future for Bolt.

  "A bird in hand is worth 2 in bush". Tesla is promising a dream. Chevy Bolt is reality now.

   Having said that there is no Cache in claiming you are driving a Chevy Bolt. That brand isn't synonymous with Electric Car.
   Tesla has to deliver as promised other those pre-orders will disappear. I do hope he succeeds.

  You're perfectly describing a "Tesla Tax," very similar to the "Apple Tax."  And frankly, that tax has made a lot of people a whole mountain of money.

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docjoo said:   Tesla on the other hand is the frontier of EV and autonomous driving and competitors are 2 to 3 years from catching up to today's Tesla technology.
 

This is simply not true, at least not the autonomous driving part of the statement.

If Tesla themselves make any components of the autonomous driving system, they make very few.  The majority if not all of the components are made by third-party suppliers and these same components are sold to other automakers.

Tesla is no further ahead (nor are they likely far behind) any other automaker in terms of autonomous driving.

I imagine the same could be said about the EV portion of the statement, but I do recall reading something about Tesla's investment in battery manufacturers so perhaps they do have a leg up in that area...

Either way, I don't see them as a foolproof bet by any means.  If anything, they have extreme risk due to autonomous driving and EV as neither of these technologies has proven yet that they will be widely accepted long term.

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How come no one is talking about Tesla's main business - EV credits? Both the credits they sell, and the credits their buyers use to make their cars more affordable.

Personally, I think it's pretty risky betting on a company that needs politicians to keep laws on the books in order for them to make money. Especially now.

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Man, lots of haters here. Like I get it, I have read the biography on Musk and there is definitely a lot of self-promotion in his trajectory and an attitude that makes him difficult to like. However, come on, vaporware? He entered an industry as a new player that the newest entrant in the US was over 90 years old, with Tesla. Co-founder status, I get it... it is questionable, but I think he did pull Tesla along despite all of the inertia to keep it in place. Of course the Model S had issues initially, not only was it a new platform, but it was a new platform from a relatively new company... seasoned automakers have had catastrophic outcomes and they have had many decades of experience... like the 1995 model year refresh of basically all GM vehicles. SpaceX is another example... taking on players that have been entrenched and backed by government dollars.

Is he magic? Certainly not, but what he has accomplished so far with Tesla and SpaceX is remarkable. He wouldn't have been there without Zip2 and X.com/PayPal, but I don't really see them as highly successful... I mean what is Zip2 now? X.com sucked up into PayPal, and now while well established, PayPal is far from innovative these days.

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meade18 said:   How come no one is talking about Tesla's main business - EV credits? Both the credits they sell, and the credits their buyers use to make their cars more affordable.

Personally, I think it's pretty risky betting on a company that needs politicians to keep laws on the books in order for them to make money. Especially now.

  Analysis brought to you by the Cato Institute, the Heritage Foundation, and Americans for Prosperity!

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bigdaddycincinnati said:   
meade18 said:   How come no one is talking about Tesla's main business - EV credits? Both the credits they sell, and the credits their buyers use to make their cars more affordable.

Personally, I think it's pretty risky betting on a company that needs politicians to keep laws on the books in order for them to make money. Especially now.

  Analysis brought to you by the Cato Institute, the Heritage Foundation, and Americans for Prosperity!

  
By poo-pooing my comment, it seems like you are saying that the regulatory environment in which Tesla operates is not a legitimate consideration when making investment decisions. I consider that foolish. But if investing in "green" companies gives you a nice warm and fuzzy feeling and you value that over your investment account balance, your comment makes sense. Based on what I've seen so far, the majority of people posting on this board prioritize a company's stock price over their perceived environmental impact. There are plenty of other forums that specialize in the latter if that's what you're interested in.

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I wouldn't hold TSLA much longer after the Model 3 debuts.  It will undoubtedly have quality control issues and the stock will likely take a hit because of it.  For those who are willing to take a gamble and haven't gotten in on TSLA yet, that'd be the perfect time to buy as it will undoubtedly rebound once the kinks are worked out and the hype for the Model Y starts.

So in short, if you haven't gotten in on TSLA yet, it's not a good time to take a gamble on it.  I would wait until after the Model 3 debuts and the stock drops after the QC issues become apparent. 

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docjoo said:   Has anyone put $1,000 deposit for Model 3?
  yes for 2 of them on the first day

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Argyll said:   I think solar and particularly batteries for energy storage will be the largest part of Tesla in the future.
  
I disagree with this.  Solar and battery technology are being developed elsewhere and for different reasons.  It's still not (generally) cost effective to store energy in your home in a battery unless utility prices are Sky high or you're truly off-grid. Battery technology is being developed not just by Tesla, but by most major auto manufacturers - heck even RC planes have electric motors and their associated battery packs can burst easily over 50A, unheard of in small packages.

I too, think TSLA will go nuts or go to zero... Your guess is as good as mine.
 

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i recently got into a small position in TSLA. Aside from car market, they've the solar panel/battery stuff going on. That could be huge market in few years.

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The solar panel stuff is potentially huge!

However, there is a lot of misleading information on that.

When Musk says - "it will cost less than your normal roof", he is not referencing the $6000 asphalt-shingle roof's that are the norm in vast majority of US (as in 80+%), but he is talking about the $100000, lifetime warranty "slate" roof that is the "norm" in the ultra rich enclave of silicone Valley.

I was extremely excited about going grid free and did a 5 minute estimate in Tesla website as soon as the feature was available.

My house (a small one) will cost $60k after all the tax credits to do over with the new solar roof shingles.

A new Asphalt Shingle, even with architectural shingles? That would be $8k tops - assuming I don't drive a hard bargain!

Unless the price goes down > 50%, I don't see a very wide adoption for the new solar roof.

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Just so you guys know, the waiting list for Tesla 3 is growing like 1,000 people per week

http://model3counter.com/ 

And some people call Tesla a scam???

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A lot of people are thinking they're going to scalp the model 3 for more than the starting price on the secondary market.

Think of them as eBay flippers for hot consoles who grew up.

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Looks like Tesla is ahead on it's production goal. August Target was 100 Model 3 cars.

https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2017/09/02/leaked-tesla-m...

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