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Tesla to Deliver First Model 3 Cars on July 28

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Previous Tesla 3 FWF thread archived. From W5J:

Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk indicated late Sunday that the company would deliver the first batch of its new Model 3 sedans on July 28.

Customers and investors have been eager to know when the Silicon Valley company will start delivering the car, which at $35,000 is far less expensive than its two existing models and which Tesla intends to sharply increase its total sales.

Tesla had said production would start this month, but hadn’t given a date for deliveries. Mr. Musk, who frequently announces plans on Twitter , teased in a tweet in the early hours of Friday morning Eastern time that there would be related news Sunday.

After being silent on the subject most of Sunday, shortly after 11 p.m. Pacific time he tweeted: “Handover party for first 30 customer Model 3’s on the 28th!” He said in separate messages that the car had “passed all regulatory requirements for production,” and that Tesla is on course to produce 20,000 Model 3s a month in December.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-set-to-deliver-first-model-3-cars-july-28-1499068230

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Per this online calculator i'm supposed to get mine in Nov. Will update

http://www.teslarati.com/want-know-youll-get-model-3-teslanomics...

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ZenNUTS said:   https://www.fatwallet.com/forums/finance/1571873
  That thread is about buying their stock, not their cars.

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Another f*cking tesla thread? Jesus Christ

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tuphat said:   ZenNUTS said:   https://www.fatwallet.com/forums/finance/1571873
  That thread is about buying their stock, not their cars.

Please explain what their cars have to do with finance. Difficulty: you already ruled out tying their cars to their stock price.

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RussellJohnson said:   Another f*cking tesla thread? Jesus Christ
  You ranged?

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Is the Model 3 cut or uncut?

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needhelpplease said:   Per this online calculator i'm supposed to get mine in Nov. Will update

http://www.teslarati.com/want-know-youll-get-model-3-teslanomics...

  Me too, except it's Nov 2018     I'll just get more use out of my crown vic (couldn't resist, have a Prius).

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Only those with early delivery would get the $10k tax credit. The latest S model configurator has $5-7k extra cost for advanced autopilot. It will be interesting to see if only the super-loaded model with big profit margins are delivered early, while the bare bone base model will not be delivered until tax credit expires.

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Seal said:   Only those with early delivery would get the $10k tax credit. The latest S model configurator has $5-7k extra cost for advanced autopilot. It will be interesting to see if only the super-loaded model with big profit margins are delivered early, while the bare bone base model will not be delivered until tax credit expires.
  This is unlikely.  Elon already said that they are limiting options to streamline production.  He has also stated that AWD and performance versions are not available at launch and will be delayed 6 months to a year.  So its likely the launch versions are the basic options.  They also been pushing the $35000 price point so it would be strange to make people wait up to a year to get it at that price point.

The tax credit will not begin to phase out until July 2018 at the earliest.  Assuming no delays for model 3 they are not projected to hit 200k vehicles until sometime in 1st Qtr 2018 which means the 7.5k credit won't go down to 3.75k until July 1 2018.  Elon has said they will produce 20k vehicles in Dec.  At that rate they will produce at least 140k by July.  Add in what they produced between Jul and Dec and any production growth would likely mean they can fill all 180k first day reservations before tax credit gets reduced.  

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robstrash said:   
needhelpplease said:   Per this online calculator i'm supposed to get mine in Nov. Will update

http://www.teslarati.com/want-know-youll-get-model-3-teslanomics...

  Me too, except it's Nov 2018     I'll just get more use out of my crown vic (couldn't resist, have a Prius).

  
Yeah I reserved 4/1 and I'm in AZ. can't wait since my ACs dying ( only works when I'm driving fast) Dealer wants $400. I've heard Tesla service is wonderful... Hope they don't change with Model 3
 

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Frankly Im tired of subsidizing this "not ready for prime time technology" if its so great why do taxpayers have to pay for it,,,this is a car for elites,,,NOT the masses...i think we all know why its being bolstered up and by who...this company has succeeded out of tax dollars and political motives....and i know that you know that i know how that goes...right all you Coalminers out there..

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trumpotron said:   Frankly Im tired of subsidizing this "not ready for prime time technology" if its so great why do taxpayers have to pay for it,,,this is a car for elites,,,NOT the masses...i think we all know why its being bolstered up and by who...this company has succeeded out of tax dollars and political motives....and i know that you know that i know how that goes...right all you Coalminers out there..
LOL 
A $35K car is a "car for the elites".....
Maybe go to a car dealer sometime and look at the sticker prices for a run-of-the-mill F150 pickup, or just about any SUV. You may be in for a shock.

Then take into account that this car will save you at least $5K in fuel costs over its lifespan, has amazing low-end torque, and has a much simpler engine that needs almost no maintenance. Even without the government credits, this technology is ready for mass markets now.

There's a reason that Tesla has a higher market cap than GM  now, even in the era of a Republican president and Congress who could have ended all those secret deals that you think exist. The stock traders know more about this than you. 

If you don't believe it, short Tesla and see what happens to your money.
 

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canoeguy1 said:   
trumpotron said:   Frankly Im tired of subsidizing this "not ready for prime time technology" if its so great why do taxpayers have to pay for it,,,this is a car for elites,,,NOT the masses...i think we all know why its being bolstered up and by who...this company has succeeded out of tax dollars and political motives....and i know that you know that i know how that goes...right all you Coalminers out there..
LOL 
A $35K car is a "car for the elites".....
Maybe go to a car dealer sometime and look at the sticker prices for a run-of-the-mill F150 pickup, or just about any SUV. You may be in for a shock.

Then take into account that this car will save you at least $5K in fuel costs over its lifespan, has amazing low-end torque, and has a much simpler engine that needs almost no maintenance. Even without the government credits, this technology is ready for mass markets now.

There's a reason that Tesla has a higher market cap than GM  now, even in the era of a Republican president and Congress who could have ended all those secret deals that you think exist. The stock traders know more about this than you. 

If you don't believe it, short Tesla and see what happens to your money.

  What percentage of the Model 3's will be completely stock at $35k?  My guess is very few, and most are going to be closer to the $45k-50k range.

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Crazytree said:   
canoeguy1 said:   
trumpotron said:   Frankly Im tired of subsidizing this "not ready for prime time technology" if its so great why do taxpayers have to pay for it,,,this is a car for elites,,,NOT the masses...i think we all know why its being bolstered up and by who...this company has succeeded out of tax dollars and political motives....and i know that you know that i know how that goes...right all you Coalminers out there..
LOL 
A $35K car is a "car for the elites".....
Maybe go to a car dealer sometime and look at the sticker prices for a run-of-the-mill F150 pickup, or just about any SUV. You may be in for a shock.

Then take into account that this car will save you at least $5K in fuel costs over its lifespan, has amazing low-end torque, and has a much simpler engine that needs almost no maintenance. Even without the government credits, this technology is ready for mass markets now.

There's a reason that Tesla has a higher market cap than GM  now, even in the era of a Republican president and Congress who could have ended all those secret deals that you think exist. The stock traders know more about this than you. 

If you don't believe it, short Tesla and see what happens to your money.

  What percentage of the Model 3's will be completely stock at $35k?  My guess is very few, and most are going to be closer to the $45k-50k range.

  You can order one in any configuration you like. Just like you can buy a $35K pickup or a $70K pickup. It may take a year to get the car, but that just shows how much interest there is in buying one. It's certainly not  the "elite" that wants these. The elite already have tricked-out Teslas available to them. The Model 3 is a car built for the middle class. If Tesla actually builds a quality vehicle and can ramp up production, I wouldn't want to be holding stock in fossil-fuel carmakers. Cars may change as fast as smartphones within a few years, and old car companies may suddenly cease to exist.

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canoeguy1 said:   
If Tesla actually builds a quality vehicle and can ramp up production, I wouldn't want to be holding stock in fossil-fuel carmakers. Cars may change as fast as smartphones within a few years, and old car companies may suddenly cease to exist.

  
This is a ridiculous conclusion to come to for multiple reasons. 1) "Old" car companies have been working on making electric cars longer than Telsa, so to insinuate that they are being caught flat footed is incorrect. If $35k electric cars are a winning play, you'll see a lot more of them on the market with "old" names in the near future. 2) "Old" car companies (and their lobbying arms) have a distinct advantage even if Tesla makes this work first. They all (including Tesla) lost a ton of money on EVs for the longest time. Making profitable EVs is brand new - for everyone. Just because Tesla is the one making the "cool" cars getting all the press right now doesn't mean that the next cool car or the next Prius (uncool but super popular) isn't going to be made by an "Old" car company. "Old" car companies could easily out compete Telsa because they have the manufacturing infrastructure and dealer network to clobber them in the long and short run. I'm not saying that will happen, but it is much more likely than the reverse.

Tesla has only been as successful up to this point because of the cache of their brand and their even more successful lobbying than "Old" car companies. I have to give them credit for the success in lobbying which led to all the money they make selling EV credits, but without a democrat in the White House the past 8 years, there is no guarantee that Tesla would still be where it is today. Yeah, their technology is great, but the tech alone hasn't kept them afloat. Without Uncle Sam's explicit and implicit backing, there wouldn't have been as many investors. Good for them for taking full advantage of that while they could. Excelling timing on their part.

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Nissan has sold more Leafs than Tesla has sold cars.

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meade18 said:   
canoeguy1 said:   
If Tesla actually builds a quality vehicle and can ramp up production, I wouldn't want to be holding stock in fossil-fuel carmakers. Cars may change as fast as smartphones within a few years, and old car companies may suddenly cease to exist.

  
This is a ridiculous conclusion to come to for multiple reasons. 1) "Old" car companies have been working on making electric cars longer than Telsa, so to insinuate that they are being caught flat footed is incorrect. If $35k electric cars are a winning play, you'll see a lot more of them on the market with "old" names in the near future. 2) "Old" car companies (and their lobbying arms) have a distinct advantage even if Tesla makes this work first. They all (including Tesla) lost a ton of money on EVs for the longest time. Making profitable EVs is brand new - for everyone. Just because Tesla is the one making the "cool" cars getting all the press right now doesn't mean that the next cool car or the next Prius (uncool but super popular) isn't going to be made by an "Old" car company. "Old" car companies could easily out compete Telsa because they have the manufacturing infrastructure and dealer network to clobber them in the long and short run. I'm not saying that will happen, but it is much more likely than the reverse.

Tesla has only been as successful up to this point because of the cache of their brand and their even more successful lobbying than "Old" car companies. I have to give them credit for the success in lobbying which led to all the money they make selling EV credits, but without a democrat in the White House the past 8 years, there is no guarantee that Tesla would still be where it is today. Yeah, their technology is great, but the tech alone hasn't kept them afloat. Without Uncle Sam's explicit and implicit backing, they're wouldn't have been as many investors. Good for them for taking full advantage of that while they could. Excelling timing on their part.


So you plan to short Tesla and buy GM instead? Under the current President and Congress, Tesla should be dying, right?
I wouldn't bet on it.
Tesla is first because it has vision, and is building the manufacturing capacity to back it up. It didn't get there through lobbying and backroom deals. The Big Three have far more lobbying power, particularly under the current Congress.

Emerging technologies are very unforgving to companies that fall behind. The "old" companies may not have time to catch up, just like dominant cellphone brands (remember Nokia? Blackberry?) died very quickly when the smartphone came out.
Making electric cars is fundamentally different than gas-powered ones. The manufuacturing capacity of the "old" companies won't help them much since most of it will need to be scrapped. And they have no massive in-house battery production like Tesla does.

Tesla's market cap is higher than GM's, and still climbing. Maybe ask yourself why all those other people are betting on Tesla instead of GM. Are they all Greenies? Do they just know less than you?
Maybe consider that you're wrong and they're right.
 

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Not to be the Debbie downer on Tesla, but everyone seems to be forgetting that GM has the Bolt being delivered to customers right now, with a 230+ miles range. The "old" companies sure have caught up pretty quick. Tesla will need to work out a lot of quality control issues if they expect to be a success in the long run. Also an electric power train is is a lot easier to reverse engineer for GM or Toyota than it seems for Tesla to work out their production QC issues. The old guard have decades of experience with fit and finish, and from the Teslas I have been in, Tesla has a ways to go.

The old companies also aren't going to die because electric cars don't work for everyone. Home chargers are great if you own a garage, but don't work so well for anyone renting or with only street parking. Also the average car price nowadays is $35,000 so there are a ton of people for who the Model 3 and Bolt are outside their budget. Hybrids make great sense, and have for 10 years, but you don't see every car on the road as a hybrid. It will be the same thing with pure electrics. Their market share will increase, but they will be sharing the road with gas, Diesels, and hybrids for a long time to come.

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LiquidSilver said:   Not to be the Debbie downer on Tesla, but everyone seems to be forgetting that GM has the Bolt being delivered to customers right now, with a 230+ miles range. The "old" companies sure have caught up pretty quick. Tesla will need to work out a lot of quality control issues if they expect to be a success in the long run. Also an electric power train is is a lot easier to reverse engineer for GM or Toyota than it seems for Tesla to work out their production QC issues. The old guard have decades of experience with fit and finish, and from the Teslas I have been in, Tesla has a ways to go.

The old companies also aren't going to die because electric cars don't work for everyone. Home chargers are great if you own a garage, but don't work so well for anyone renting or with only street parking. Also the average car price nowadays is $35,000 so there are a ton of people for who the Model 3 and Bolt are outside their budget. Hybrids make great sense, and have for 10 years, but you don't see every car on the road as a hybrid. It will be the same thing with pure electrics. Their market share will increase, but they will be sharing the road with gas, Diesels, and hybrids for a long time to come.

  My guess is that  Tesla will hire whomever they need from the Big 3 (but more likely Honda/Toyota) to get QC and fit/finish right. Their market cap gives them enormous leverage to pay whatever it takes to pull required talent from the "old" companies. In fact, with the amount of money at their disposal, Tesla could simply buy large chunks of a car manufacturer to quickly ramp up production.

In terms of the Bolt, I wonder whether GM would see any more cost reductions with higher production. They have no battery factory like Tesla does. If they can't reduce cost, Tesla probably wins.

Once electric cars drop another 5-8k in price (and mass production should get them there fairly quick), I doubt many people will keep driving gas cars. Once you factor in the $5-8K in fuel and maintenance savings, an electric car is simply cheaper. As more people buy electric cars, the charging issues will resolve themselves-at least in urban areas. ie your place of work will have chargers, and middle-class apartment/condo units will add them as well.
You might therefore get a very quick changeover from gas to electric, which will leave companies like Ford in the dust.

Now add the whole autonomous vehicle revolution, and the car market will resemble the smartphone market, with major changes happening on a yearly basis. The companies with the best vision will survive.

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canoeguy1 said:   
LiquidSilver said:   Not to be the Debbie downer on Tesla, but everyone seems to be forgetting that GM has the Bolt being delivered to customers right now, with a 230+ miles range. The "old" companies sure have caught up pretty quick. Tesla will need to work out a lot of quality control issues if they expect to be a success in the long run. Also an electric power train is is a lot easier to reverse engineer for GM or Toyota than it seems for Tesla to work out their production QC issues. The old guard have decades of experience with fit and finish, and from the Teslas I have been in, Tesla has a ways to go.

The old companies also aren't going to die because electric cars don't work for everyone. Home chargers are great if you own a garage, but don't work so well for anyone renting or with only street parking. Also the average car price nowadays is $35,000 so there are a ton of people for who the Model 3 and Bolt are outside their budget. Hybrids make great sense, and have for 10 years, but you don't see every car on the road as a hybrid. It will be the same thing with pure electrics. Their market share will increase, but they will be sharing the road with gas, Diesels, and hybrids for a long time to come.

  My guess is that  Tesla will hire whomever they need from the Big 3 (but more likely Honda/Toyota) to get QC and fit/finish right. Their market cap gives them enormous leverage to pay whatever it takes to pull required talent from the "old" companies. In fact, with the amount of money at their disposal, Tesla could simply buy large chunks of a car manufacturer to quickly ramp up production.

In terms of the Bolt, I wonder whether GM would see any more cost reductions with higher production. They have no battery factory like Tesla does. If they can't reduce cost, Tesla probably wins.

Once electric cars drop another 5-8k in price (and mass production should get them there fairly quick), I doubt many people will keep driving gas cars. Once you factor in the $5-8K in fuel and maintenance savings, an electric car is simply cheaper. As more people buy electric cars, the charging issues will resolve themselves-at least in urban areas. ie your place of work will have chargers, and middle-class apartment/condo units will add them as well.
You might therefore get a very quick changeover from gas to electric, which will leave companies like Ford in the dust.

Now add the whole autonomous vehicle revolution, and the car market will resemble the smartphone market, with major changes happening on a yearly basis. The companies with the best vision will survive.

  Did they hook you up to the e-meter at the Tesla dealership and tell you to banish your inner (combustible gas) thetans?

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The biggest advantage I see Tesla having, and it's a big one IMO, is the battery production. They have made massive investments in battery production through their partnership with Panasonic and building of the Gigafactory. If EVs achieve mass market success, the other manufacturers may be able to put rush out competitive EVs but they will be severely hampered by the scarcity of batteries. This will drive up the cost for them, and force them to either cut corners or sell at higher prices than Tesla.

The closest direct comparison we have right now is the Bolt vs. Model 3, and I would wager that the Model 3 will outsell it by a very wide margin. When you do a side by side comparison, the Model 3 will be a much more desirable car IMO.

The other advantage Tesla will have is with Autopilot. Installing the system in every car, regardless of whether the customer pays to activate the features, will prove to be a genius move in a few years. They will be Years Ahead of the game due to all the data they're amassing and analyzing. This is something I don't see traditional manufacturers being willing to go out on a limb to do, as they are typically risk-adverse and very slow to react (i.e. I don't see them including a lot of expensive hardware for "free").

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canoeguy1 said:   So you plan to short Tesla and buy GM instead? Under the current President and Congress, Tesla should be dying, right?
I wouldn't bet on it.

First off, I specifically said old car companies and never said "Detroit" or "The Big Three" for a reason. Honda, Toyota, BMW, VW, etc. are all huge players in this and are perfectly poised to clobber Tesla all over the world. Keep in mind that the US isn't the only country in the world buying cars. How many plants does Telsa have in Europe? Asia? Central America? I don't plan to buy any GM anytime soon, but I am considering shorting Tesla, yes.
Tesla is first because it has vision, and is building the manufacturing capacity to back it up. It didn't get there through lobbying and backroom deals. The Big Three have far more lobbying power, particularly under the current Congress.
I admitted that I was impressed with Tesla's success in Washington considering their size. But it is false to say that government created EV credit markets were not a huge factor in Tesla's success.
Emerging technologies are very unforgving to companies that fall behind. The "old" companies may not have time to catch up, just like dominant cellphone brands (remember Nokia? Blackberry?) died very quickly when the smartphone came out.
Regardless of whether we agree that you can compare car manufacturing and sales to cellphone manufacturing and sales (IMO you shouldn't), the government has a history of bailing out carmakers. What makes you think they won't do it again?
Making electric cars is fundamentally different than gas-powered ones. The manufuacturing capacity of the "old" companies won't help them much since most of it will need to be scrapped. And they have no massive in-house battery production like Tesla does.
Are you an automotive engineer or something? If so, you must work for Telsa and have never worked for an "old" auto manufacturer because this is the dumbest statement I've read in the debate about Tesla's future. Making electric cars is NOT fundamentally different than making gas powered ones. Making electric motors is fundamentally different than making internal combustion engines, but that is only one component of an automobile. Making electric motors isn't exactly difficult either. Like mentioned above, the advantage may lie only in the batteries. The rest of the car matters as far as manufacturing is concerned. I'm not sure why you think that's not the case. That press release about Tesla passing their crash tests was a big deal for a reason. Making a car that can pass crash tests isn't easy and has almost nothing to do with what type of engine is under the hood. That's only one part. Fit and finish, which was pointed out above, is another. I could go on and on.
Tesla's market cap is higher than GM's, and still climbing. Maybe ask yourself why all those other people are betting on Tesla instead of GM. Are they all Greenies? Do they just know less than you?
Maybe consider that you're wrong and they're right.

I've considered it. That's why I never made a definitive statement about Telsa failing. They could very well be extremely successful. I just pointed out that it is unlikely that Telsa will put the "old" car companies out of business. I'm not currently putting my money where my Mouth is, so take my statements for what they're worth (not much). Good for the people that do. They stand to make a lot more money if they are correct (in either direction).
  

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canoeguy1 said:   
trumpotron said:   Frankly Im tired of subsidizing this "not ready for prime time technology" if its so great why do taxpayers have to pay for it,,,this is a car for elites,,,NOT the masses...i think we all know why its being bolstered up and by who...this company has succeeded out of tax dollars and political motives....and i know that you know that i know how that goes...right all you Coalminers out there..
LOL 
A $35K car is a "car for the elites".....
Maybe go to a car dealer sometime and look at the sticker prices for a run-of-the-mill F150 pickup, or just about any SUV. You may be in for a shock.

 

  Why are you comparing model 3 to a full size pickup or SUV?

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rufflesinc said:   
canoeguy1 said:   
trumpotron said:   Frankly Im tired of subsidizing this "not ready for prime time technology" if its so great why do taxpayers have to pay for it,,,this is a car for elites,,,NOT the masses...i think we all know why its being bolstered up and by who...this company has succeeded out of tax dollars and political motives....and i know that you know that i know how that goes...right all you Coalminers out there..
LOL 
A $35K car is a "car for the elites".....
Maybe go to a car dealer sometime and look at the sticker prices for a run-of-the-mill F150 pickup, or just about any SUV. You may be in for a shock.

 

  Why are you comparing model 3 to a full size pickup or SUV?

  Because that is the type of vehicle the "non-elites" (ie Trumpotron's reference to coal miners) often drives. Yet, they're usually more expensive than the Model 3. In other words, from a cost point of view, a $35K vehicle is affordable to the masses.

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meade18 said:   
canoeguy1 said:   So you plan to short Tesla and buy GM instead? Under the current President and Congress, Tesla should be dying, right?
I wouldn't bet on it.

First off, I specifically said old car companies and never said "Detroit" or "The Big Three" for a reason. Honda, Toyota, BMW, VW, etc. are all huge players in this and are perfectly poised to clobber Tesla all over the world. Keep in mind that the US isn't the only country in the world buying cars. How many plants does Telsa have in Europe? Asia? Central America? I don't plan to buy any GM anytime soon, but I am considering shorting Tesla, yes.
Tesla is first because it has vision, and is building the manufacturing capacity to back it up. It didn't get there through lobbying and backroom deals. The Big Three have far more lobbying power, particularly under the current Congress.
I admitted that I was impressed with Tesla's success in Washington considering their size. But it is false to say that government created EV credit markets were not a huge factor in Tesla's success.
Emerging technologies are very unforgving to companies that fall behind. The "old" companies may not have time to catch up, just like dominant cellphone brands (remember Nokia? Blackberry?) died very quickly when the smartphone came out.
Regardless of whether we agree that you can compare car manufacturing and sales to cellphone manufacturing and sales (IMO you shouldn't), the government has a history of bailing out carmakers. What makes you think they won't do it again?
Making electric cars is fundamentally different than gas-powered ones. The manufuacturing capacity of the "old" companies won't help them much since most of it will need to be scrapped. And they have no massive in-house battery production like Tesla does.
Are you an automotive engineer or something? If so, you must work for Telsa and have never worked for an "old" auto manufacturer because this is the dumbest statement I've read in the debate about Tesla's future. Making electric cars is NOT fundamentally different than making gas powered ones. Making electric motors is fundamentally different than making internal combustion engines, but that is only one component of an automobile. Making electric motors isn't exactly difficult either. Like mentioned above, the advantage may lie only in the batteries. The rest of the car matters as far as manufacturing is concerned. I'm not sure why you think that's not the case. That press release about Tesla passing their crash tests was a big deal for a reason. Making a car that can pass crash tests isn't easy and has almost nothing to do with what type of engine is under the hood. That's only one part. Fit and finish, which was pointed out above, is another. I could go on and on.
Tesla's market cap is higher than GM's, and still climbing. Maybe ask yourself why all those other people are betting on Tesla instead of GM. Are they all Greenies? Do they just know less than you?
Maybe consider that you're wrong and they're right.

I've considered it. That's why I never made a definitive statement about Telsa failing. They could very well be extremely successful. I just pointed out that it is unlikely that Telsa will put the "old" car companies out of business. I'm not currently putting my money where my Mouth is, so take my statements for what they're worth (not much). Good for the people that do. They stand to make a lot more money if they are correct (in either direction).

 

A couple of points to make:

1) The most complex part of a traditional car, by far, is the powertrain. An electric car not only has a completely different (and simpler) motor, but it also doesn't have a transmission (except for one gear). Apart from that, the brakes on an electric car are very different, and the electric system is different. A big part of an electric car is the complex batteries, which traditional cars don't have. Really, the only major things that traditional cars have in common with electric cars is the frame/interior and suspension. Therefore, many of the manufacturing facilities and know-how that traditional car makers have is obsolete. Thus my statement that all that manufacturing capability doesn't give the traditional automakers much of an advantage.

2) Other automakers are now getting serious. Volvo just announced that they will make no purely gas-powered cars after 2019. That's a huge endorsement of the changeover to electric, but it still puts them years behind Tesla. 

3) The reason I'm compairing cars to smartphones is because in a very short time, automobile innovation will pick up speed dramatically. There will be a sudden, massive shift to electric (ie totally new manufacturing requirements), and after that most innovation will be driven by software and sensors, not who can weld steel the best. This makes car evolution very similar to smartphone evolution. A car might be obsolete way before the mechanical parts wear out. Any car maker that doesn't keep up will go the way of Blackberry.

rated:
As a Tesla Model X owner, I can tell you that Tesla has a long, long way way to go to deliver world-class fit and finish car. Panel Gaps, misaligned doors, sensors malfunctioning, broken windshield, door slamming into passengers, broken seat adjusters, cheap brittle plastic, and intermittently working streaming music (I get "loading error on the music every time I drive).

And the super charger is adequate at best. You never know if you're getting the full 100kW charging or 38 kW charging until you walk away from the car and check it 5 minutes later. If it's the lower one, you gotta run back to the car to go to switch stall. Am I stopping for 20 minutes or 1hr 20 minutes? Don't know because the charges are inconsistent.

The issue with Tesla is that you don't know what works and what doesn't after each software update.

I can go on and on. If there was a super fast charging for the GM Bolt, I'd get that in a heart-beat.

Other general issues with electric cars:
1) It doesn't charge fast when it's cold
2) it doesn't charge fast when it's hot
3) it doesn't charge fast when there are 2 cars on the same circuit.
4) It doesn't charge fast when it's past 80% capacity
5) It doesn't charge fast because most of the cars on the road (tesla excluded) have a level 2 charging capability.
6) It doesn't charge fast because many public chargers are broken and you never know if it's working on not until you get there...

rated:
canoeguy1 said:   
 
1) The most complex part of a traditional car, by far, is the powertrain. An electric car not only has a completely different (and simpler) motor, but it also doesn't have a transmission (except for one gear). Apart from that, the brakes on an electric car are very different, and the electric system is different. A big part of an electric car is the complex batteries, which traditional cars don't have. Really, the only major things that traditional cars have in common with electric cars is the frame/interior and suspension. Therefore, many of the manufacturing facilities and know-how that traditional car makers have is obsolete. Thus my statement that all that manufacturing capability doesn't give the traditional automakers much of an advantage.

3) The reason I'm compairing cars to smartphones is because in a very short time, automobile innovation will pick up speed dramatically. There will be a sudden, massive shift to electric (ie totally new manufacturing requirements), and after that most innovation will be driven by software and sensors, not who can weld steel the best. This makes car evolution very similar to smartphone evolution. A car might be obsolete way before the mechanical parts wear out. Any car maker that doesn't keep up will go the way of Blackberry.

  Toyota has been making the Prius for 20 years now, and while there are a lot more hybrids on the road today, the prius' technology didn't kill the conventional car. Don't expect Telsa to kill the gas car any time in the near future either.

In terms of cost savings I really don't see it. My Prius costs me $52 per 1000 miles in gas, and a Tesla would cost $42 to charge at home over a 1000 miles interval. So I save $120 a year with a Tesla. BUT I would have to install a 200 amp breaker panel, and buy a home charger with the Tesla which is about $1500. With the Prius the only additional costs are really an oil change every year. While I do love that Tesla is creating a new market, I really don't see it as a cost savings to average people. 

rated:
canoeguy1 said:   A couple of points to make:

1) The most complex part of a traditional car, by far, is the powertrain. An electric car not only has a completely different (and simpler) motor, but it also doesn't have a transmission (except for one gear). Apart from that, the brakes on an electric car are very different, and the electric system is different. A big part of an electric car is the complex batteries, which traditional cars don't have. Really, the only major things that traditional cars have in common with electric cars is the frame/interior and suspension. Therefore, many of the manufacturing facilities and know-how that traditional car makers have is obsolete. Thus my statement that all that manufacturing capability doesn't give the traditional automakers much of an advantage.

2) Other automakers are now getting serious. Volvo just announced that they will make no purely gas-powered cars after 2019. That's a huge endorsement of the changeover to electric, but it still puts them years behind Tesla. 

3) The reason I'm compairing cars to smartphones is because in a very short time, automobile innovation will pick up speed dramatically. There will be a sudden, massive shift to electric (ie totally new manufacturing requirements), and after that most innovation will be driven by software and sensors, not who can weld steel the best. This makes car evolution very similar to smartphone evolution. A car might be obsolete way before the mechanical parts wear out. Any car maker that doesn't keep up will go the way of Blackberry.

  
I'm sorry, but you're just very wrong with your assumptions and conclusions related to automotive engineering and manufacturing. Literally NO ONE in the industry holds the view you hold. Pick up a automotive periodical and find me someone that thinks Tesla is going to put a traditional manufacturer out of business. I'll wait.

The ONLY component that Tesla has a manufacturing advantage in is the battery. Yes, batteries are complicated and the technology is new and rapidly changing (relatively speaking). But just because it's not "complicated" to make a door and door panel doesn't mean that a company who has just started doing it (Tesla) can do it (and fit it together with the rest of the car) as well as auto manufacturers that have been doing it for nearly a century. There is a reason that many boutique manufacturers don't last or can only produce a few hand built models a year. It is extremely difficult to build a whole car regardless of what type of engine and other components you put in. Another reason (among too many more to mention) that traditional auto manufacturers will continue to thrive is because they build multiple vehicles on only a few platforms (something Telsa is no where near ready to do).

The only thing that Teslas and traditional cars have in common is... everything besides the motor and battery. How do you get from that to, "Therefore, many of the manufacturing facilities and know-how that traditional car makers have is obsolete?"

Tesla is building cars from the ground up just like everyone else. Why wouldn't a company with dozens of factories, hundreds of suppliers, decades of experience, and a network of dealers across the globe have an advantage in making a car when all they have to do is substitute the powertrain and "gas tank?" They are already making their cars with multiple powertrain options. This isn't a new concept for them. Nearly every manufacturer has a hybrid or two in their lineup. They know how build cars that run on motors and batteries.

Where's your response to my point about Tesla only existing in the US and no where near ready to expand to other markets...?

rated:
LiquidSilver said:   
...
In terms of cost savings I really don't see it. My Prius costs me $52 per 1000 miles in gas, and a Tesla would cost $42 to charge at home over a 1000 miles interval. So I save $120 a year with a Tesla. BUT I would have to install a 200 amp breaker panel, and buy a home charger with the Tesla which is about $1500. With the Prius the only additional costs are really an oil change every year. While I do love that Tesla is creating a new market, I really don't see it as a cost savings to average people. 

  
Good points.  

The whole world hasn't gone out and bought a Prius to save money and they won't all run out and buy electric cars either.    Hybrids and electric together are still only ~3% of the market.

But the model S is more a luxury sports car.   
Also your electricity seems a bit on the pricey side.  What are you paying ~14 cents / kwh?
The Nissan Leaf or a Model 3 would be better comparison to a Prius.      A leaf should cost closer to $20 / 1000 miles for most.   16 kwh gets 80 miles so ~200 kwh / 1000 mi = $20 at 10 cents /kwh.
Thats closer to ~$500/yr savings vs a Prius for operation given average driving of ~15k mi /yr.     Such savings adds up and it will shift more buyers , but its likely to be a minority for a long while.

 

rated:
jerosen said:   
LiquidSilver said:   
...
In terms of cost savings I really don't see it. My Prius costs me $52 per 1000 miles in gas, and a Tesla would cost $42 to charge at home over a 1000 miles interval. So I save $120 a year with a Tesla. BUT I would have to install a 200 amp breaker panel, and buy a home charger with the Tesla which is about $1500. With the Prius the only additional costs are really an oil change every year. While I do love that Tesla is creating a new market, I really don't see it as a cost savings to average people. 

  
Good points.  

The whole world hasn't gone out and bought a Prius to save money and they won't all run out and buy electric cars either.    Hybrids and electric together are still only ~3% of the market.

But the model S is more a luxury sports car.   
Also your electricity seems a bit on the pricey side.  What are you paying ~14 cents / kwh?
The Nissan Leaf or a Model 3 would be better comparison to a Prius.      A leaf should cost closer to $20 / 1000 miles for most.   16 kwh gets 80 miles so ~200 kwh / 1000 mi = $20 at 10 cents /kwh.
Thats closer to ~$500/yr savings vs a Prius for operation given average driving of ~15k mi /yr.     Such savings adds up and it will shift more buyers , but its likely to be a minority for a long while.

 

  
Based on the charging limitations, I doubt many people will be putting much more than 10k mi/yr on their electric cars.

rated:
meade18 said:   
jerosen said:   
LiquidSilver said:   
...
In terms of cost savings I really don't see it. My Prius costs me $52 per 1000 miles in gas, and a Tesla would cost $42 to charge at home over a 1000 miles interval. So I save $120 a year with a Tesla. BUT I would have to install a 200 amp breaker panel, and buy a home charger with the Tesla which is about $1500. With the Prius the only additional costs are really an oil change every year. While I do love that Tesla is creating a new market, I really don't see it as a cost savings to average people. 

  
Good points.  

The whole world hasn't gone out and bought a Prius to save money and they won't all run out and buy electric cars either.    Hybrids and electric together are still only ~3% of the market.

But the model S is more a luxury sports car.   
Also your electricity seems a bit on the pricey side.  What are you paying ~14 cents / kwh?
The Nissan Leaf or a Model 3 would be better comparison to a Prius.      A leaf should cost closer to $20 / 1000 miles for most.   16 kwh gets 80 miles so ~200 kwh / 1000 mi = $20 at 10 cents /kwh.
Thats closer to ~$500/yr savings vs a Prius for operation given average driving of ~15k mi /yr.     Such savings adds up and it will shift more buyers , but its likely to be a minority for a long while.

 

  
Based on the charging limitations, I doubt many people will be putting much more than 10k mi/yr on their electric cars.

  I have 14K on mine and it's only been 7 months. It's a lot easier to put miles on it than you think.  

rated:
Most people forget the time premium attributed to owning an electric car. For one, it's not practical to go far in an EV except for a Tesla.

If you road-trip, you're going to add about 1 hour every ~200 miles (for a Tesla, other cars it's like 5-7 hrs). A trip from Los Angeles to Sf Bay Area takes like 8+ hours. Normally, it takes 6 hours. And once you're in the SF, there isn't a place to charge anywhere...You either have to go to San Mateo (the closest one) to charge and there are only 8 chargers. You're most likely wait 20+ mins for your turn in addition to actual charging.

Think about it: Approximately 90 minutes to go 200 miles.

I equate the electric cars to the early, early days of the PC. Full of potential but we ain't there until 20+ years later.

I like EV. And I'm a believer in it. But you gotta go into this with your eyes open. There are a lot of pros and cons. Better know the cons before you go.

rated:
jerosen said:   
LiquidSilver said:   
...
In terms of cost savings I really don't see it. My Prius costs me $52 per 1000 miles in gas, and a Tesla would cost $42 to charge at home over a 1000 miles interval. So I save $120 a year with a Tesla. BUT I would have to install a 200 amp breaker panel, and buy a home charger with the Tesla which is about $1500. With the Prius the only additional costs are really an oil change every year. While I do love that Tesla is creating a new market, I really don't see it as a cost savings to average people. 

  
Good points.  

The whole world hasn't gone out and bought a Prius to save money and they won't all run out and buy electric cars either.    Hybrids and electric together are still only ~3% of the market.

But the model S is more a luxury sports car.   
Also your electricity seems a bit on the pricey side.  What are you paying ~14 cents / kwh?
The Nissan Leaf or a Model 3 would be better comparison to a Prius.      A leaf should cost closer to $20 / 1000 miles for most.   16 kwh gets 80 miles so ~200 kwh / 1000 mi = $20 at 10 cents /kwh.
Thats closer to ~$500/yr savings vs a Prius for operation given average driving of ~15k mi /yr.     Such savings adds up and it will shift more buyers , but its likely to be a minority for a long while.

 

  
I'm an EV fan and lease a Leaf.  Those numbers are very generous.  Remember, you pay for each kwh you pull from the wall but you don't get all of that as usable energy.  I only get 4.5 miles per kwh from the batteries - 17.7 per 80 miles..  Then you have to back out the loss due to charging.  If I recall correctly, 3 miles per kwh is pretty much the average across all drivers, which would be about 26 kwh per 80 miles.

rated:
meade18 said:   
canoeguy1 said:   A couple of points to make:

1) The most complex part of a traditional car, by far, is the powertrain. An electric car not only has a completely different (and simpler) motor, but it also doesn't have a transmission (except for one gear). Apart from that, the brakes on an electric car are very different, and the electric system is different. A big part of an electric car is the complex batteries, which traditional cars don't have. Really, the only major things that traditional cars have in common with electric cars is the frame/interior and suspension. Therefore, many of the manufacturing facilities and know-how that traditional car makers have is obsolete. Thus my statement that all that manufacturing capability doesn't give the traditional automakers much of an advantage.

2) Other automakers are now getting serious. Volvo just announced that they will make no purely gas-powered cars after 2019. That's a huge endorsement of the changeover to electric, but it still puts them years behind Tesla. 

3) The reason I'm compairing cars to smartphones is because in a very short time, automobile innovation will pick up speed dramatically. There will be a sudden, massive shift to electric (ie totally new manufacturing requirements), and after that most innovation will be driven by software and sensors, not who can weld steel the best. This makes car evolution very similar to smartphone evolution. A car might be obsolete way before the mechanical parts wear out. Any car maker that doesn't keep up will go the way of Blackberry.

  
I'm sorry, but you're just very wrong with your assumptions and conclusions related to automotive engineering and manufacturing. Literally NO ONE in the industry holds the view you hold. Pick up a automotive periodical and find me someone that thinks Tesla is going to put a traditional manufacturer out of business. I'll wait.

The ONLY component that Tesla has a manufacturing advantage in is the battery. Yes, batteries are complicated and the technology is new and rapidly changing (relatively speaking). But just because it's not "complicated" to make a door and door panel doesn't mean that a company who has just started doing it (Tesla) can do it (and fit it together with the rest of the car) as well as auto manufacturers that have been doing it for nearly a century. There is a reason that many boutique manufacturers don't last or can only produce a few hand built models a year. It is extremely difficult to build a whole car regardless of what type of engine and other components you put in. Another reason (among too many more to mention) that traditional auto manufacturers will continue to thrive is because they build multiple vehicles on only a few platforms (something Telsa is no where near ready to do).

The only thing that Teslas and traditional cars have in common is... everything besides the motor and battery. How do you get from that to, "Therefore, many of the manufacturing facilities and know-how that traditional car makers have is obsolete?"

Tesla is building cars from the ground up just like everyone else. Why wouldn't a company with dozens of factories, hundreds of suppliers, decades of experience, and a network of dealers across the globe have an advantage in making a car when all they have to do is substitute the powertrain and "gas tank?" They are already making their cars with multiple powertrain options. This isn't a new concept for them. Nearly every manufacturer has a hybrid or two in their lineup. They know how build cars that run on motors and batteries.

Where's your response to my point about Tesla only existing in the US and no where near ready to expand to other markets...?


Tesla doesn't have to re-invent the wheel with regards to car frame manufacturing. With their market cap, they can simply hire the people with the correct skillsets, and buy existing manufacturing plants. Essentially, a Ford car frame plant would become a Tesla car frame plant.
The rest of the car is so different from a traditional car (as I stated: no transmission, different braking, different engine, addition of batteries) that it has to be redesigned from the ground up anyway.

Tesla only exists in the US because it has to start somewhere. It can't start everwhere at once. Not that it matters. What matters is the mastering of the technology, not the size of the initial footprint. Tesla can easily sell their cars in Europe once they've ramped up production.
Again, look at Tesla's market cap. Lots of people believe this.

rated:
canoeguy1 said:   
 
Tesla doesn't have to re-invent the wheel with regards to car frame manufacturing. With their market cap, they can simply hire the people with the correct skillsets, and buy existing manufacturing plants. Essentially, a Ford car frame plant would become a Tesla car frame plant.
The rest of the car is so different from a traditional car (as I stated: no transmission, different braking, different engine, addition of batteries) that it has to be redesigned from the ground up anyway.

Tesla only exists in the US because it has to start somewhere. It can't start everwhere at once. Not that it matters. What matters is the mastering of the technology, not the size of the initial footprint. Tesla can easily sell their cars in Europe once they've ramped up production.
Again, look at Tesla's market cap. Lots of people believe this.

  
The thing is, the US manufacturers have a lot of the knowledge of building EVs already without building that many.  Let's take your list.

Powertrain - It's so simple in an EV it takes little skill to get it right.  The motors have been around for decades and they all are pretty much the exact same efficiency.  Transmissions are single gear with no shifting.  There is literally no competitive advantage to be had here, a monkey could make a competitive EV drive-train.

Braking - No different than the system in many hybrids, which all the big manufacturers already make.

Batteries - Again, the systems are already in many hybrids, just to a different scale.  If anything, the systems in hybrids are more complex because they have to balance electric and dinofuel power.

The only real complexity EVs have over ICEs is the powering of aux equipment.  Where all these parts - steering, A/C compressors, pumps - are run off belts in an ICE, they have to be powered in some other way in an EV.  You are way over estimating the skill gap the US manufactures face in producing competitive EVs.  

rated:
wilesmt said:   
I'm an EV fan and lease a Leaf.  Those numbers are very generous.  Remember, you pay for each kwh you pull from the wall but you don't get all of that as usable energy.  I only get 4.5 miles per kwh from the batteries - 17.7 per 80 miles..  Then you have to back out the loss due to charging.  If I recall correctly, 3 miles per kwh is pretty much the average across all drivers, which would be about 26 kwh per 80 miles.

You are right on the money, Teslalab (an app that collects Tesla data) says the average Tesla get 3.3 miles per kwh. 

rated:
Crazytree said:   
canoeguy1 said:   
trumpotron said:   Frankly Im tired of subsidizing this "not ready for prime time technology" if its so great why do taxpayers have to pay for it,,,this is a car for elites,,,NOT the masses...i think we all know why its being bolstered up and by who...this company has succeeded out of tax dollars and political motives....and i know that you know that i know how that goes...right all you Coalminers out there..
LOL 
A $35K car is a "car for the elites".....
Maybe go to a car dealer sometime and look at the sticker prices for a run-of-the-mill F150 pickup, or just about any SUV. You may be in for a shock.

Then take into account that this car will save you at least $5K in fuel costs over its lifespan, has amazing low-end torque, and has a much simpler engine that needs almost no maintenance. Even without the government credits, this technology is ready for mass markets now.

There's a reason that Tesla has a higher market cap than GM  now, even in the era of a Republican president and Congress who could have ended all those secret deals that you think exist. The stock traders know more about this than you. 

If you don't believe it, short Tesla and see what happens to your money.

  What percentage of the Model 3's will be completely stock at $35k?  My guess is very few, and most are going to be closer to the $45k-50k range.

  
Not as many as you would think.   As the Model 3 with options approaches the base Model S price I would expect more to move upline.   They are targeting separate segments of the marketplace.  

I had an interesting chat with a used car guy that used to have a deal to liquidate Teslas (until Tesla moved that in-house) and he said they have no clue how to market and their clients are in-general a very finicky lot for the Model S.  He said Tesla was horrible about introducing new features almost randomly, without respect to a car year.  Not even options, but standard equipment that would have needed retooling the line.  Plus their market is to a large extent millennials that want the "best newest thing" -- so having essentially a 2015.25 a 2015.5 and a 2015.75 on the market makes it VERY hard to sell the 2015.25  if there was a major feature (like a larger screen for the console or a HW upgrade to the autopilot.)  He said even for the used cars it was a "oh, that was before they did X" from buyers.  It was almost like hand-made "bespoke" cars trying to sell them he said.
 

Skipping 90 Messages...
rated:
rufflesinc said:   musk is now bragging that the "govt" gave him "verbal" approval to build his "hyperloop" from DC to NYC. bwahhahah. verbal approval from this admin !
  He is losing his mind, and anyone who finds this remotely credible has already lost theirs.  Imagine the number of affected property owners who would have to consent.

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